19% Share! *
We start July with Sweden, the local plug-in market was up 96% YoY, with 2,340 registrations, helping the yearly tally to grow 65% regarding the same period last year, with the 2018 PEV Share recovering 0.5%, to 6.5%. Will we see the 2018 PEV share beat the all-time high of 7.2% (March '18) by September? And could it reach 9% when the year ends? One thing is certain, two-digit monthly results should become the norm from now on...
* - A new fiscal system started on July 1st, where regular ICE models see their taxes increased (Malus), with the same being partially true regarding HEVs and low-range PHEVs, to the profit of eficiente, longer-range PHEVs, and BEVs, which helps to explain why big SUV PHEVs basically disappeared this month, and the general market sank (-49% last month), while some PHEVs had a sales surge last month. So: general market sinks + PEVs grow = 19% share.
As expected, the major growth engine were all-electric models, that surged 173% YoY, after months of falling sales, while PHEVs maintained their YTD growth (+82% YoY) in July, by increasing sales by 82%...Why haven't plug-in hybrid sales dropped? Because the more efficient, longer range PHEVs also benefit from the new system, to the profit of Korean PHEVs, but more on that below...
Also telling of the new times, Diesel sales sank even harder in July, with this fuel representing only 23%(!) of last month sales, a giant 25%(!!!) drop over the 48% of July '17, and to attest the influence that the new system had on sales, Diesel dropped 21% share, from June to July...Will this earth-moving change continue, or will Diesel recover over time?
One thing is certain, if previously i believed that Diesel sales could be dead here by 2022/3. Now, i think it could be even earlier, maybe by 2021. And to think that in 2012, Diesel had 67% of the market...
One thing is certain, if previously i believed that Diesel sales could be dead here by 2022/3. Now, i think it could be even earlier, maybe by 2021. And to think that in 2012, Diesel had 67% of the market...
Looking at last month Best Sellers, a few significant changes happened, the Kia Niro PHEV broke the VW Passat GTE/Mitsu Outlander PHEV rule, by winning its first Monthly Best-Seller prize, thanks to a record 437 deliveries, while the Renault Zoe took full advantage of the new system, by ending the month in Fourth, with a record 126 registrations. Will this mean that Sweden will finally open up to the French hatchback?
Pl
|
Model
|
Sales
|
1
|
Kia Niro PHEV
|
437
|
2
|
VW Passat GTE
|
430
|
3
|
Kia Optima PHEV
|
294
|
4
|
Renault Zoe
|
126
|
5
|
Volvo S/V90 PHEV
|
116
|
Looking at the 2018 ranking, several changes happened due to the new system, the main news were the Korean PHEVs all reaching record performances, allowing them to climb in the ranking, the Kia Optima PHEV was up one position to #3, the Kia Niro PHEV ditto, to #5, while the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV joined the Top 20, thanks to a record 69 registrations. Koreans are rising...
Other significant changes were the expected climb of BEVs in the table, with the Renault Zoe going to #9, the Tesla Model S up one position to #12, while the VW e-Golf jumped two places, to #16, thanks to a Year Best performance of 54 units.
The current BEV leader, the Nissan Leaf, had a surprisingly low performance, by registering only 62 units, are there allocation problems, or are Swedes simply not into the new Leaf?
The current BEV leader, the Nissan Leaf, had a surprisingly low performance, by registering only 62 units, are there allocation problems, or are Swedes simply not into the new Leaf?
One thing is certain, its French cousin Zoe is closing in and could reclaim the BEV leadership soon.
In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo is still in the lead (21%), but the #2 Volkswagen (20%, up 1%), and #3 Kia (17%, +1%), and getting closer, while #4 BMW (10%, down 2%) is suffering due to their heavy reliance on short range PHEVs.
Having PHEVs in the lineup is not enough anymore BMW, now you need to increase their ranges...
Having PHEVs in the lineup is not enough anymore BMW, now you need to increase their ranges...
Source: bilsweden
Models breakdown by Fuel Source
Pl
|
Model
|
June
|
1
2 |
VW Golf ICE
Kia Niro PHEV |
654
437 |
3
4 5 |
VW Passat GTE
VW Polo ICE Volvo XC40 ICE |
430
376 368 |
6
7 |
VW Tiguan ICE
Kia Optima PHEV |
326
294 |
8
|
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
|
280
|
9
10 |
Skoda Fabia ICE
Volvo S/V90 ICE |
273
262 |
With plug-ins in July reaching a Norway-like 19% share of sales, the general ranking is starting to see PEVs pop up like flowers in Spring. As such, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have three PHEVs in the Top 10, two of them (Kia Niro PHEV and VW Passat GTE) in podium positions, while the Kia Optima PHEV is #7.
In a sea of ICE Volkswagens and Volvos, the Korean Kia has placed two models, which is telling of the disruptive force of plug-ins ("If our regular dealers do not have them, we just move to something new"), hear that, VW and Volvo?
In a sea of ICE Volkswagens and Volvos, the Korean Kia has placed two models, which is telling of the disruptive force of plug-ins ("If our regular dealers do not have them, we just move to something new"), hear that, VW and Volvo?
It will be interesting to see if this ranking will be continue to be impacted by the new system, and also to know if regular hybrids can recover ground.
It is kinda sad result. I was expecting to see top-5 BEVs.
ReplyDeleteI still hope, it is just a problem with delivery. For example, everybody ordered Leaf in July, but now they have to wait 6 months for delivery...
I was also expecting better results from the BEV side, maybe it serves to show how production constrained the market is.
DeleteHow much more than 200% growth can someone expect? ;) Yes, it shows something about how production constrained it is, but so are many PHEVs.
DeleteBEVs are not yet ready for prime time in Sweden, too high speeds, too long distances, too cold winters, too many wanting the ability to tow.
And as I've told you repeatedly the new tax system benefits PHEVs more than BEVs so the result was expected.
If we just could get the Model 3, Niro EV, Kona EV, updated Leaf, an updated Ioniq and of course a couple of long range BEV offerings from Volvo then things will start to change.
The Leaf has been promoted with a better price but delivery after the 1st of july for more than 6 months, so people had plenty of time to order to get delivery in July so don't expect much more from the coming months.
DeleteKeep in mind that ICE sales set an all time high in June before the new tax regime. The situation will normalize after the summer, with a higher than before share of plug in vehicles.
ReplyDeleteYes, this kind of monthly share was a peak event, but i expect that 10%-12% results should be the norm from now on.
DeleteHow the PRIUS PHV was doing in July?
ReplyDeleteWith EV range similar to Niro PHEV and Ioniq PHEV it should have benefitted by the new rules.
Or is it the price factor influence?
34 deliveries, best result in 14 months.
DeleteNot bad, but could be better, so i guess the package is not as appealing as the Koreans.
The good part is that 72% of Prius sales last month was the plugin version.
DeleteBut the Prius is not wanted in any way in Sweden. It makes up 2% of the Toyota sales. If you want to see an impact then you will have to wait for Toyota to make a plugin version of the Auris, Yaris, C-HR or RAV-4. In that order, the first two are making up 50% of Toyotas sales and the four models together over 80%.
It looks about the same in Norway (and many other parts in Europé). The Prius is pretty much dead in Europe.
True, Toyota needs to grow some plugs on their hybrids, or else they will start to lose sales.
DeleteMy question was how the PHV was doing in July compared to preious months. And it was completely answered by Jose.
DeleteThe Prius PHV does not errode Auris sales, it competes Ioniq and Niro PHEVs. The reason for the "not good enough" absolute results in Europe is IMO marketing decision by Toyota, starting price in the US is $27k before insentives, how much it cost on Sweden?
Sure. I'm just telling you that the Prius, in any form, is irrelevant in Europé.
DeleteThe Prius PHV doesn't errode any model of any manufacturer, including their own because it is irrelevant.
It doesn't compete with the Ioniq or Niro because it is irrelevant. It doesn't compete with anyone really, it only fights for its own survival.
The Prius starts from $32k and the plugin verions from $42k Before Incentives. The Ioniq starts from $44,5k Before Incentives.
So just forget about the Prius. Toyota has 4-5 models that they need to put a plug on in Europé, the Prius would not be one of them if it already didn't have one.
Marketing has Little to do with it, the Prius is just not competitive and nor compatible with European wants and needs.
So I would urge Toyota to get a plug-in Auris for sale, that would sell like crazy.
$38k for the Ioniq PHEV, the other number was for the BEV. My bad.
DeleteYou have supplied the answer with the figures you have provided...these are marketing decisions both for the regular prius (long ago) as well as the PHV. Let's depart here with non-agreement.
Delete19% !!
ReplyDeleteThis deserves a visual presentation.
Growth of marketshare in a few other countries, like Danmark, since say 2015.
WOW, unbelieveble
Even if it's a peak event, it is awesome to see it!
DeleteIt's reports like these that make me want to continue with the EV Sales blog.
It is reports like these I need for my daily fix.
DeleteKeep writing them.