BMW i3, Renault Zoe and Tesla Model 3. Who will be Germany's Best Seller?
Some kind of click happened in the German plugin market after the Summer holidays, after two consecutive record months, November saw 10,985 units being registered, only the second five-digit performance, after the 11,926 units of October. It seems Europe's locomotive has finally been set in motion, which is a promising sign for 2020.
Despite a BEV slowdown (only +9% YoY), PHEVs (+216%!!!) were more than enough to propel forward this market, with plugins growing 72% YoY last month, while share wise, November saw the PEV share reach 3.7% (1.6% for BEV alone), allowing the 2019 share to climb to a record 2.9% (1.7% BEV).
Despite a BEV slowdown (only +9% YoY), PHEVs (+216%!!!) were more than enough to propel forward this market, with plugins growing 72% YoY last month, while share wise, November saw the PEV share reach 3.7% (1.6% for BEV alone), allowing the 2019 share to climb to a record 2.9% (1.7% BEV).
November brought another demonstration of strength from the Daimler Group, placing once again three models in the Top 5, besides the E300e/de twins keeping the monthly leadership, with 1,263 deliveries, their smaller siblings, the C300e/de twins, ended in 4th, with 719 registrations.
But the Daimler Group didn't stopped there, with the tiny Smart Fortwo EV ending the month in 3rd, with 828 units, its best result since December '17.
But the Daimler Group didn't stopped there, with the tiny Smart Fortwo EV ending the month in 3rd, with 828 units, its best result since December '17.
The remaining two spots in the Top 5 went to the local heroes VW e-Golf (#2, with 925 units), and BMW i3 (#5, 546), with the Volkswagen veteran impressing by its vitality, even with its sucessor in bilboards everywhere (and starting to roll of the lines of Zwickaw into the hands of a few lucky VW employees. 81 ID.3's were registered in November…)
Pl
|
Model
|
Sales
|
1
|
Mercedes E300e/de
|
1,263
|
2
|
VW e-Golf
|
925
|
3
|
Smart Fortwo EV
|
828
|
4
|
Mercedes C300e/de
|
719
|
5
|
BMW i3
|
546
|
Regarding the YTD table, the Number One Spot continues pretty much open to discussion, with all top 3 models underperforming (the Dutch market black-hole effect is making itself felt…), the BMW i3 still managed to overcome the former leader Renault Zoe and become the new #1, while at the same time time, it has won a precious advantage (665 units right now) over the #3 Tesla Model 3.
With only 1 month to go, this is still a 3 horse race, and i guess the decision lies in the hands of...The Netherlands.
Depending on the priority given to the Dutch market in December by the three brands, the Best Seller can either stay in Germany, cross the border to France, or go halfway the world to Palo Alto...But if i had to bet on a winner, i would go for...BMW.
While the Model 3 will probably end December ahead of the other two, in the 2019 count, the disadvantage regarding the leader (665 units) is significant, so it will take an extraordinary performance next month which, while not impossible, is becoming even more difficult by the black-hole effect of the neighboring Dutch market.
As for Renault and BMW, the distance is small (101 units) enough for a small allocation difference to make a big difference, and with the French maker still in volume ramp up of the revised Zoe, it wouldn't be surprising if the priority to the Dutch market would prevent it to have enough units to beat the local BMW i3.
One thing is certain, this is probably the most exciting race among the top markets, so don't forget to bring the popcorn...
With only 1 month to go, this is still a 3 horse race, and i guess the decision lies in the hands of...The Netherlands.
Depending on the priority given to the Dutch market in December by the three brands, the Best Seller can either stay in Germany, cross the border to France, or go halfway the world to Palo Alto...But if i had to bet on a winner, i would go for...BMW.
While the Model 3 will probably end December ahead of the other two, in the 2019 count, the disadvantage regarding the leader (665 units) is significant, so it will take an extraordinary performance next month which, while not impossible, is becoming even more difficult by the black-hole effect of the neighboring Dutch market.
As for Renault and BMW, the distance is small (101 units) enough for a small allocation difference to make a big difference, and with the French maker still in volume ramp up of the revised Zoe, it wouldn't be surprising if the priority to the Dutch market would prevent it to have enough units to beat the local BMW i3.
One thing is certain, this is probably the most exciting race among the top markets, so don't forget to bring the popcorn...
Outside the podium, there's also a lot to talk about, the Mercedes E300e/de twins climbed to #6, and although the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is too far from the Mercedes model for the Luxury sedan to reclaim the Best Selling PHEV title, next year the Japanese SUV will surely lose out to the Mercedes.
But the PHEV resurgence didn't ended there, with another Mercedes double, the C300e/de, jumping three spots, to #16, while we see a new face in the table, with the new BMW 330e joining the ranking, in #20, making 4 BMW's in the Top 20.
Outside the Top 20 there are also significant performances: the new Audi Q5 PHEV registered 276 registrations, a new personal best, while its relative VW Passat GTE scored a record 350 units, and the Porsche Cayenne PHEV delivered 374 units, placing it just 8 units behind the #20 BMW 330e...Will we see the Porsche SUV ascend to the Top 20 in December?
In the brands ranking, BMW (21%, down 1%) is the leader, with Tesla (10%, down 1%) keeping its advantage over the #3 Renault (9%, down 1%).
Outside the podium, the rising Mercedes (8%, up 1%) has surpassed Mitsubishi and Volkswagen, with the three-pointed-star now aiming to displace Renault from the last place of the podium in December, while the Smart brand (7%, up 1%) is looking to end the year in 4th.
Not only in Germany, there's an ID.3 registered in Spain.
ReplyDeleteTrue. Possibly zooming around SEAT HQ...
DeleteSlowly but steadily, Germany is setting the pace.
ReplyDeleteFrom the published data, YTD sales performance is:
1st BMW group with 20410 sales
2nd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance with 18354 sales
3rd Daimler with 13778 sales
Next year will be crazy in this market
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteZoe has a good chance of being the best in 2019-2020
ReplyDeleteUnless VW *really* slow-walks it, Id.3 should be virtually guaranteed to win 2020 in Germany...
DeleteRenault make 70000 Zoe.15000-20000 arrives in Germany.Can VW sell as much?1ST series reserved all over Europe.There will be good competition,no one has guarantee top1.Depends on how much VW will produce
DeleteI have new information.Yes,I agree,Id 3 guaranteed to win 2020
DeleteGiven that Zoe won't even reach 10,000 in Germany this year, I doubt it will do 15,000 - 20,000 next year...
DeleteAIUI, VW intends to produce ~100,000 of the Id.3 in the first year. Even if only one in four or five of these is sold in Germany (roughly in line with e-Golf), that's still almost certainly more than any other model.
Seat e-born and id.4 included in these 100000
DeleteZoe will produce 2 times more+subsidies+there is an opportunity to reduce prices=15000
DeleteAFAIK the total production of all MEB-based models is supposed to be 150,000 in 2020. Don't remember for sure what the 100,000 figure was -- but it seems pretty plausible that it's for Id.3 only... The Id.4 (is that really what it will be called?) was only supposed to arrive later in 2020 -- and given the slippage of the Id.3, it probably won't come before late 2020 or early 2021. Don't remember what was said exactly about the el-born: but pretty sure it was either late 2020 or early 2021 as well. So both should be much lower than Id.3 in 2020.
DeleteIt's really depressing to see the subsidy-leech PHEV models dominate sales again... I can only hope that some of that is pent-up demand for the newly (re-)introduced models, and will level off in a couple of months.
ReplyDeletePhev will have a large share of 2 market:Sweden and Germany.Some love wagon,others love their car industry
DeleteI can easily believe that the German market will grow more than 2 times.Its even easier for me to believe that Zoe will be 20000
DeleteUnless the i3 shows a very strong performance in December itself, the Model 3 would need way less than 1,500 deliveries to regain the top spot. Given previous numbers, that only needs a decent performance, not an "extraordinary" one... It is, as you point out, all a question of how much the Netherlands leave over for their fellow Europeans.
ReplyDeletei3 is likely to show decent numbers.There is hope Zoe will be better.Tesla 3 will probably remain 3
DeleteThe 2019 best selling car in Germany was the Renault ZOE with 9.431 units sold.
DeleteMercedes PHEV are bought as corporate cars, they mostly won't be charged from outside, so actually used as combustion cars. Nowadays many used (2-4 years) PHEV are being given back to auto houses with not unpacked charging cable.
ReplyDeleteTypical FAKE NEWs.
DeleteMost home and workplace chargers sold in Europe have the cable attached, there is no need to use the cars cable.
I ptopose phev declare war.Not to include them in the top50 of 2021:)
Deletehow come i have a different experience with PHEV owners? Here in Portugal, they use heavily the local charging infrastructure, even the fast chargers!
DeleteIt isn't a fake news, corporate PHEVs are charged very seldom, it's been a topic even in the ministry
Delete@José you are probably mostly seeing the (minority) of PHEV owners who actually bought out of conviction -- while all those who bought only for subsidies remain "invisible"...
Delete(Note that it's fully expected to see PHEVs use chargers a lot: given their short ranges, they have to charge much more often to be useful at all...)
Netherlands 6000 sold model 3.Ship arrives today to Amsterdam.11000+
ReplyDeletewow, December will be historic!
ReplyDeleteMarket share BEV 52%.Fantasy!
ReplyDeletee-Tron50 came out.big sales guaranteed
ReplyDeleteI'm not putting much hopes into that one. While it's less expensive than the other variant, it's still decidedly premium-priced, while the specs are even less appropriate for a "premium" vehicle...
DeleteMG ZS started salling in Netherlands-119 and Norway-2
ReplyDeleteIt's oficial: the MG ZS is the first Chinese EV being sold in volume in Europe. The first of many?
Deletehttps://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/20/what-if-dealers-got-bonuses-for-selling-evs/
ReplyDeleteGermany is now an average 155g\km CO2 emission.To reach 95g\km you need to sell a lot BEV
ReplyDeleteYep, and out of nowhere, September 2019 signaled the start of the German plugin sales jump.
DeleteThere are no coincidences.