Monday, October 19, 2020

Portugal September 2020

 



Tesla Model 3 #1 in 14% share market

With the overall automotive market is still in the doldrums (-39% YoY), plugin registrations hit a record month in September, with 1.844 plugins being registered, with the plugin share hitting a record 14% last month, with the 2020 result now at 11%.

But this great result is much due to plugin hybrids, that are currently on fire, growing 164% last month, to a record 1.138 units and 62% of the PEV market, while BEVs have seen better days, in September edged positive (+3%, 706 units), but YTD, the numbers are still in red (-4%), to 5.204 units, making this traditionally BEV-friendly market move firmly into PHEV territory, as these last ones now have 56% of the total plugin sales this year.

Why has this happened? Well, for one, the fiscal incentives for PHEVs are almost identical to BEVs, which make many fleet buyers buy plugin hybrids just because of the fiscal incentives, another reason is the weak charging infrastructure, that is insufficient to provide quality service to the already large number of plugins in the country, not only regarding quantity, but also reliability (a large amount of fast-chargers have significant hours of down time, due to weak maintenance) and speed (there isn't any fast-charger at over 50 kW charging speed). No wonder the Tesla Model 3 is #1...If nothing else, it's because their drivers have access to a country-wide network, that isn't down all the time and charges at 150 kW! 

Speaking of the Best Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 increased its lead over the Renault Zoe, to 89 units, thanks to a September win (172 units), which in turn, the French hatchback also gained space between it and the #3 Nissan Leaf, now distanced by 61 units.

If the podium positions seems stable, for the moment, below it, the PHEV title is very much open to discussion, with the Mercedes A250e, a new local favorite, surpassing the BMW 330e and reaching #4, with these two winning an important advantage over the #6 Mercedes C300e/de. 

Interestingly, 3 out of the 4 position changes benefited Mercedes models, besides the A250e climbing to #4, the E300e/de was up to #9, thanks to a year best score of 61 units,  while the GLC300e/de took full profit from the new diesel-engined version to jump to #18. 

Funny enough, there is not one Volkswagen in the Top 20, and the only VW Group nameplate present is the Porsche Cayenne PHEV(!), in #16...Good thing then, that the VW ID.3 landed with a promising 72 registrations, so we could see a Volkswagen in this Top 20, after all...

Below the Top 20, a mention also to the 48 units of the Citroen C5 Aircross PHEV, in its full sales month, while the Renault Captur PHEV saw 30 deliveries also in its first full sales month.

In the manufacturers ranking, Mercedes (18%) is well ahead of the competition, being the first market where the three-pointed-star maker is #1, while following its tail, we have BMW and a rising Volvo, both with 11%, running for the runner-up spot, and outside the podium, we have Tesla (9%), followed by Renault and Nissan, the two with 7% share.







Midsize cars 


Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
BMW 3-Series
1.350
2
Mercedes C-Class
1.260
3
Tesla Model 3
958
4
Peugeot 508
521
5
Volvo S/V60
514

Comparing the Model 3 deliveries against its midsize competitors, we can see that the Tesla midziser has kept June's 3rd spot, so no news here.

We should also notice that the remaining models also have a significant electrification rate, with 48% of the leader BMW 3-Series sales coming from the PHEV version, closely followed by the 47% electrification rate of the Mercedes C-Class, while the 25% rate of the Peugeot 508 is not far off, although the French midsizer lost 4% share regarding June and 13% regarding March. Strange drop, isn't it?


In the last place of the Top 5, the Volvo S/V60 twins have reasons to celebrate, as they increased their electrification rate by 8%, to the current 41%, making this a 100% electrified Top 5.




Midsize SUVs 


Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Mercedes GLC
866
2
Volvo XC60
743
3
BMW X3
417
4
DS 7 Crossback
251
5
Mitsubishi Outlander
250

Electrification is strong here too, with the leader Mercedes GLC increasing significantly its electrification rate (23% rate, up 10%), all the other models have a large share of sales coming from their PHEV versions, with the Mitsubishi having a (surprisingly low) 60% rate, the new 4th placed DS 7 having 65% (up 9%), and the runner-up Volvo SUV an average 53% rate.

Surprisingly, the #3 BMW X3 dropped its electrification rate, regarding last June, from 40% to the current 35%.


Full size cars

Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Mercedes E-Class
814
2
BMW 5-Series
595
3
Audi A6
140
4
Volvo S/V90 
137
5
Porsche Taycan
101

In the full size car category, there's good and bad news, on one hand, we have the two category leaders with a significant level of electrification (E-Class - 48%; 5-Series - 43%), one 100% BEV model (Porsche Taycan) on the Top 5, while the #4 Volvo S/V90 twins have a strong PHEV share, at 59%.

On the other hand, the Audi A6, having risen to #3, only recently has started to deliver the PHEV versions, so its electrification rate (11%) is small, although it has increased 7% regarding June, and should continue to grow in the coming months. 



Full size SUVs


Pl
Model
2020
Sales  
1
Porsche Cayenne
249
2
BMW X5 
194
3
Mercedes GLE
137
4
Volvo XC90
119
5
Audi e-Tron
83

Lots of changes in this category, first of all, the Porsche Cayenne (93% PHEV) is the new leader, having displaced the BMW X5 (57%, down 9%), while the Mercedes GLE (31% PHEV share, up 17% regarding last June) is the new Bronze medalist, having replaced the Volvo XC90 (79% plugin hybrid)

This is the most electrified end of the market, not only the ICE models have a significant electrification rate, but now we also have a BEV model in the Top 5, with the Audi e-Tron joining in #5.

16 comments:

  1. Tesla had 2 price cuts in the US, 7 price cuts in China and 7 day return policy terminated. What is going on here? Could be very big.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Big indeed: Tesla keeps reducing costs, while others are still struggling to catch up with where Tesla has been in the past...

      How about Tesla increasing their range advantage with another significant step-up across pretty much their entire lineup? Is that "big" too?

      Delete
    2. @Heinrich: You are wondering "Could be very big"
      Yes, the sales in Q4 will be very big.

      As promised Panasonic increased battery efficiency by 5% which means for the same capacity, the battery weight should have gone down by 5% and combined with more efficient motors, the range increased by 5 - 10%.

      This is not the end, and the efficiency will keep increasing and the cost will keep going down. Tesla should be paying much lower cost for the batteries.

      Delete
  2. Seeing the 225xe being a major contender kinda throws me back...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here it is a popular choice among a certain type of buyers, upper-middle class soccer-moms love it.

      Delete
    2. Curious that it doesn't have the stigma that MPVs got in the US, where most soccer moms abandoned them in favour of less efficient SUVs, because they didn't want to be seen as soccer moms...

      Delete
  3. Wow, 1.844 vehicles for Portugal is equivalent to
    14.750 for Germany (8 times more population)
    59.000 for USA (32 times)
    252.000 for China (137 times)

    Great job Portugal.
    In a market where PHEVs have 62% share, Model 3 took #1, it shows Teslas dedication.
    So Tesla alone provides supercharging station with good maintenance while others say "I dont care"
    Even the utilities (electric power companies) dont care to install chargers.
    Even the electric equipment companies dont care to install chargers.
    All this proves that the hand of OPEC + Big Oil is behind.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep, in markets like this, the charging infrastructure is a major trump card in BEV sales.

      Delete
    2. Big Oil groups are fighting all over Europe against the mobility and energy transition. Europe pays 200 billion EURs for mineral oil per year. The smaller and or poorer countries suffer from their extreme high oil costs. Bur they do nothing to reduce their dependency.

      Delete
  4. Seems the Model Y crossover has better mileage than Model 3 in winter testing with heater on because of its heat pump system and this system will soon be applied to Model 3 as well.

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-vs-model-3-efficiency-test/

    ReplyDelete
  5. Even in this smaller market, the 3 diesel plugins appearing shows diesel will be there. I guess MB is the only group launching more diesel plugins. Do they have diesel hybrids as well?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This has been a diesel-addicted market for decades, so it's not really a surprise that diesel PHEVs they are popular here.

      Some habits die hard...

      Delete
  6. Today, GM will reveal their Hummer EV. This may be only for USA/Canada since the GMC make is only sold in these 2 countries.

    A pickup truck and that too such a big one is mostly used in these 2 countries while all other countries prefer a van which is lot more functional with the cargo bed roofline raised to the vehicles roofline. Thats why Cybertrk has a roof that raises higher to gain the extra capacity.

    But at least they are planning to sell another EV and we should feel happy about it. So watch if possible or watch it tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  7. In the best sellers lists, most models now have a share of elecritification. Would it make sense to add a column to those tables with the numbers?

    In all cases, thanks for the good work José!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good idea, will add that in future posts.

      Delete
  8. Looks like BMW and Mercedes are far ahead of VW and Audi by providing what customers presently want: apparently PHEVs.

    ReplyDelete