tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post1629909407508029382..comments2024-03-24T15:03:03.162+00:00Comments on EV Sales: China September 2019José Ponteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-4481662565997565412019-10-30T03:06:00.937+00:002019-10-30T03:06:00.937+00:00I didn't say weight doesn't matter. I said...I didn't say weight doesn't matter. I said that the weight-related range impact of a larger battery is far far smaller than the capacity-related gain.<br /><br />Of course aerodynamics do matter (especially at highway speeds); as does power train efficiency. Which are two reasons why the Model 3 is the most efficient EV at highway speeds -- even more than much lighter models with smaller batteries...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-5146321694117504042019-10-29T09:05:22.930+00:002019-10-29T09:05:22.930+00:00You know vehicle engineering a lot. How do you ach...You know vehicle engineering a lot. How do you achieve high efficiency ratios for a set capacity and budget?<br />If your answer is get a huge battery (like 150kWh), mainly use SiC on power electronics and overlook aerodinamics and vehicle mass your proposal vehicle will make Homer Simpson very happy.<br />When the Model S came out, they had choosen high aluminium content because they were stupid or didn't know better?<br /><br />written by Looney TunesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-57402402556665934782019-10-28T23:20:35.106+00:002019-10-28T23:20:35.106+00:00Range impact from weight increase is a pretty smal...Range impact from weight increase is a pretty small fraction of range increase from larger capacity.<br /><br />(Even less during highway driving, where range matters most.)antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-58139619645763539862019-10-28T10:14:02.547+00:002019-10-28T10:14:02.547+00:00RFLMAO... weight kills range!
written by Looney T...RFLMAO... weight kills range!<br /><br />written by Looney TunesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-84887912075650787602019-10-26T14:51:23.753+00:002019-10-26T14:51:23.753+00:00I don't expect more than a couple thousand MIC...I don't expect more than a couple thousand MIC Model 3 this year either -- but added no top of imported models, this surely should be meaningful enough to secure the "best foreign model" title?...<br /><br />As for the production ramp, I don't believe the original Model 3 issues in Nevada/Fremont to be indicative here at all. For the first several months, power trains were the major bottleneck -- but Chinese production will initially import those from Nevada: so no new issues are to be expected here at all. (Battery assembly in Shanghai from locally sourced cells will only commence some time during H1 2020.)<br /><br />Also, Model 3 was an entirely new product, and on an entirely new scale for Tesla. They introduced new assembly approaches to manage this volume; and they had a lot to learn about logistics etc. at such volumes. None of these things will be new for them in Shanghai. I am confident that we will see four figures per week within a few months -- indeed the goal to get to at least 1000 a week before the end of this year seems entirely realistic to me.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-20058137460900267232019-10-26T14:50:21.326+00:002019-10-26T14:50:21.326+00:00Ugh... This comment didn't go where it was sup...Ugh... This comment didn't go where it was supposed to go. What I actually wanted to write here:<br /><br />Battery weight is no replacement for body weight. Depending on the design approach, the battery casing *can* double as a body part -- but that's only the casing. The vast majority of the pack's weight (cells, modules, cooling, wiring) goes on top of that. So a vehicle with a bigger battery will *always* be heavier. (Unless of course there are unrelated weight savings elsewhere...)<br /><br />Not sure though why increased weight should matter anyway?...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-75588539480213202622019-10-24T21:57:42.074+00:002019-10-24T21:57:42.074+00:00I don't expect more than a couple thousand MIC...I don't expect more than a couple thousand MIC Model 3 this year either -- but added no top of imported models, this surely should be meaningful enough to secure the "best foreign model" title?...<br /><br />As for the production ramp, I don't believe the original Model 3 issues in Nevada/Fremont to be indicative here at all. For the first several months, power trains were the major bottleneck -- but Chinese production will initially import those from Nevada: so no new issues are to be expected here at all. (Battery assembly in Shanghai from locally sourced cells will only commence some time during H1 2020.)<br /><br />Also, Model 3 was an entirely new product, and on an entirely new scale for Tesla. They introduced new assembly approaches to manage this volume; and they had a lot to learn about logistics etc. at such volumes. None of these things will be new for them in Shanghai. I am confident that we will see four figures per week within a few months -- indeed the goal to get to at least 1000 a week before the end of this year seems entirely realistic to me.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-34722772100256490912019-10-23T15:31:33.932+00:002019-10-23T15:31:33.932+00:00Model 3 MIC will continue to be considered a "...Model 3 MIC will continue to be considered a "foreign nameplate".<br /><br />As for deliveries of MIC Model 3 this year, like y.v., i do not expect them to be in large volumes, a few thousands, maybe, but not in enough volumes that would make it change the current deliveries trend.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-24951193704190214192019-10-23T15:27:59.500+00:002019-10-23T15:27:59.500+00:00@JR - You were right, there's a bug in the for...@JR - You were right, there's a bug in the formulas, they weren't counted. Thanks!<br /><br />@Anonymous - CAAM does not include imports on their data, but includes other vehicle categories (Buses, etc) that i don't, so they are not direcly connected.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-7198753694568604012019-10-23T09:56:32.655+00:002019-10-23T09:56:32.655+00:00If we would look at previous experience, it took a...If we would look at previous experience, it took a whole year to ramp up M3 production to the "meaningful" level... Even with experience and Chinese magic, I seriously doubt if we could see any meaningfull deliveries until q1-q2 2020...+ We know nothing about battery supply yet. There would be no in-house battery production on GF3, and LG has quite a limited production capacity and lot of customers.let's hope LG could ramp up/redirect it's cylindrical cells production faster, than its did with pouch cells y.v.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12090302312540987557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-90987624505942553272019-10-22T20:41:14.229+00:002019-10-22T20:41:14.229+00:00During the quarter, BYD Auto lost the Qin Pro EV f...During the quarter, BYD Auto lost the Qin Pro EV from the Top20 and saw the distance reduced for BAIC Motor, while Chery Automobile reached the 4th place with the NEV subsidies changes.<br />From the posted data, Q32019 standings are:<br /><br />1st BYD Auto with 134261 vehicles<br />2nd BAIC Motor with 107303 vehicles<br />3rd SAIC Motor with 75955 vehicles<br />4th Chery Automobile with 29616 vehicles<br />5th Geely Auto with 27300 vehiclesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-3269258948359697642019-10-22T19:32:40.767+00:002019-10-22T19:32:40.767+00:00My understanding is that Model 3 production in Sha...My understanding is that Model 3 production in Shanghai has actually started this week (many trucks can be seen delivering parts), and sales will start as soon as they get product approval -- which rumours say could happen within a couple of days...<br /><br />Either way, if made in China Model 3 sees *any* meaningful deliveries this year, I think it's safe to say the title of "best foreign model" is pretty much guaranteed -- at least if we consider MIC Model 3 still a foreign model?...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-3709088147768509042019-10-22T19:27:00.675+00:002019-10-22T19:27:00.675+00:00A non-expensive "stick" can also be appl...A non-expensive "stick" can also be applied simply by increasing taxes on polluting vehicles, instead of direct subsidies for non-polluting ones... No need to switch to an entirely different incentive approach for fiscal reasons only.<br /><br />Taxes (or subsidies, i.e. negative taxes) and quotas (cap-and-trade programs) both have unique advantages and disadvantages. While taxes/subsidies will provide the best result that can be achieved at a set cost, quotas enable setting a specific goal that will have to be met no matter how much it costs... Unfortunately, in practice, goals for cap-and-trade programs are invariantly set way too low (probably due to lobbying efforts?) -- it always turns out the goals can be met easily, and the credits soon lose almost all value, making the programs entirely ineffective going forward.<br /><br />And that's what we are seeing in China as well right now: the quotas for 2019 and 2020 are way too low to keep the growth of previous years.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-65529638616761713062019-10-22T18:38:10.765+00:002019-10-22T18:38:10.765+00:00As per CAAM, only 80,000 PEVs (63,000 BEVs and 17,...As per CAAM, only 80,000 PEVs (63,000 BEVs and 17,000 PHEVs) were sold last month. So neither 82,867 nor 76,676 is correct.<br /><br />And the worldwide sales of 3 million in 2019 is very doubtful.<br />Anyway some year has to see a decline. But 2020 will see a different story with GF-3 cranking out more vehicles.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-31718382649312065502019-10-22T18:35:45.360+00:002019-10-22T18:35:45.360+00:00Short notice of subsidy cut starting from June-26 ...Short notice of subsidy cut starting from June-26 caught many electric automakers off-guard.<br />They have to order extra batteries, redesign their vehicles to accomodate the extra batteries and also retool their factories to make long range BEVs and it takes many months.<br /><br />Hopefully starting from 2020, we can see the sales increasing once again. <br />All they need to do is reduce the steel used in frame and support it with the battery weight, this way the vehicle could weigh the same even with extra battery and every extra kg of battery could power the vehicle for more distance.<br /><br />Keeping all this in mind, Chinese automakers are launching crossovers which gain extra space in trunk area and also the height factor adds to extra space.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-2034213524404922902019-10-22T08:11:24.243+00:002019-10-22T08:11:24.243+00:00Hey! Hope all is well. Quick note on the total sum...Hey! Hope all is well. Quick note on the total summation. Looks like your total figure (76,676) doesn't include the GAC Aion S (4,006) and the Xiapeng Xpeng G3 (2,185). When i sum your figures i reach 82,867. Hope this helps!JRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01167643709353505303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-3766103504536976252019-10-22T07:31:46.670+00:002019-10-22T07:31:46.670+00:00The big news for the Chinese market will be the up...The big news for the Chinese market will be the upcoming determination of the NEV quotas for 2021 and the following years. I have read somewhere (can't remember where) that the new targets will be announced before year end. It makes sense for the Chinese government to replace expensive carrots (subsidies) with sticks (quotas).Alexander Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04592007433147176027noreply@blogger.com