tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post5602671333143420627..comments2024-03-24T15:03:03.162+00:00Comments on EV Sales: China May 2019José Ponteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-64087403613981184382019-06-27T21:16:10.544+00:002019-06-27T21:16:10.544+00:00The LR RWD variant still seems to be available for...The LR RWD variant still seems to be available for order on the Chinese site -- and AFAIK it was the same last time it was (temporarily) discontinued in the US?antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-92066033846254258762019-06-26T23:24:32.831+00:002019-06-26T23:24:32.831+00:00AWD versions are said to be imported from the US, ...AWD versions are said to be imported from the US, while the LR RWD is supposed to be discontinued (again).<br /><br />I hope this last Model 3 version (LR RWD) gets back in production sooner than later, as it is the best from the lot. <br /><br />José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-70678036979249423932019-06-25T18:26:53.338+00:002019-06-25T18:26:53.338+00:00Well yes, they actually removed the imported SR+ f...Well yes, they actually removed the imported SR+ from the Chinese order page now, only leaving the option to pre-order the domestic one.<br /><br />(LR RWD and LR AWD are still available for order though, along with Performance -- AIUI none of these be made in Shanghai?)<br /><br />However, I wouldn't be surprised if there are actually *more* orders coming in now that the exact specs and prices are known for all variants, so people no longer have a reason to wait and see...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-57036688555508158562019-06-24T23:09:32.899+00:002019-06-24T23:09:32.899+00:00A downward trend shouldn't be surprising. Once...A downward trend shouldn't be surprising. Once giga 3 opens Chinese consumers will be able to buy a M3 at a substantially lower price due to lack of tariffs. Only S, X, and performance M3 will likely be sold in China until the factory opens.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08709485460344621256noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-47689530849049368822019-06-24T14:21:04.527+00:002019-06-24T14:21:04.527+00:00I am covering them quarterly now.I am covering them quarterly now.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-69498912859477161092019-06-24T14:20:40.999+00:002019-06-24T14:20:40.999+00:00I have high hopes in a number of new models, namel...I have high hopes in a number of new models, namely the GAC Aion S, or the China-made Model 3, so despite this recent growth dip, i am still optimistic.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-80353338460009271392019-06-24T14:17:36.542+00:002019-06-24T14:17:36.542+00:00It is a good question indeed, maybe as antrik said...It is a good question indeed, maybe as antrik said, it was a question of pull forward demand, where people anticipated the end of subsidies in the first months of the year,José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-78695248600290663302019-06-24T13:52:10.013+00:002019-06-24T13:52:10.013+00:00I just realized that EV-Sales hasn't covered U...I just realized that EV-Sales hasn't covered USA sales since March 2019. What happened to April 2019 numbers, and aren't they normally one of the first countries covered each month, so I'd expect May 2019 numbers by now, too?Taylor S. Markshttp://marksfam.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-78139311484784836202019-06-23T22:00:58.317+00:002019-06-23T22:00:58.317+00:00Well, it's quite likely that orders have been ...Well, it's quite likely that orders have been low *because* the Shanghai factory will be ready soon, bringing cheaper locally built Model 3; thus people being reluctant to order the imported ones... Might be one reason why Tesla opened order for the Chinese-built Model 3 early: once people know exactly what price and equipment the local version will come with, they can better decide whether to wait for that one, or order one of the imported variants now...<br /><br />It's an interesting question of course what would happen if demand had really turned out way lower than expected... Would it be cheaper to stop construction and write down the investments already made, rather than completing the factory and running it way below capacity? Not sure.<br /><br />Having said that, I don't think that's very likely. From the number of reservations (who didn't cancel over the course of almost three years, before Shanghai construction reached a point of no return), Tesla should have a reasonably good idea about medium-term demand.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-35397050366249499102019-06-22T16:59:29.581+00:002019-06-22T16:59:29.581+00:00AIUI the subsidy reduction will only hit on June 2...AIUI the subsidy reduction will only hit on June 26th. So that shouldn't reduce sales right now -- on the contrary, I'd expect a demand pull-forward...<br /><br />I wonder whether perhaps demand was pulled forward into earlier months instead, because people were expected the subsidy cuts to come sooner?antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-88751581658847375822019-06-22T13:25:00.532+00:002019-06-22T13:25:00.532+00:00If demand is low in a country, why put so many res...If demand is low in a country, why put so many resources into a factory in the country?<br /><br />It seems like if you realized it wasn't selling in China, you'd put Gigafactory 3 on pause and shift all your efforts over to the European Gigafactory where the car is doing much better.<br /><br />Maybe we'll see some Model 3 blowout in China in June? If there's really 14 boats full of Model 3 that went there so far this year, I don't see how there'd be fewer than 20K sold.Taylor S. Markshttp://marksfam.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-24164908164017759292019-06-22T07:18:55.728+00:002019-06-22T07:18:55.728+00:00Jose,
After 5 months there are only two EV models...Jose,<br /><br />After 5 months there are only two EV models (the BYD Yuan EV and the BAIC EU-series) that have reached/crossed the 30,000 sales milestone so far in 2019 (in China).<br /><br />And only these two EV models have the chance to reach/cross the 100,000 annual sales milestone in 2019 (in China).<br /><br />In 2020 it will be a totally different ballgame (in China).<br /><br />Cheers Neohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05209618863383544499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-376826605045110272019-06-21T17:54:57.972+00:002019-06-21T17:54:57.972+00:00Do you have an explanation on why the rate of prog...Do you have an explanation on why the rate of progress has fallen so much? Is this related to the reduction of subsidies or to the shortage of batteries, triggered in part by the tendency to have bigger battery packs per car?Alexander Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04592007433147176027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-67376058291219656392019-06-21T15:16:31.065+00:002019-06-21T15:16:31.065+00:00Pretty sure there isn't significant unsold inv...Pretty sure there isn't significant unsold inventory... Why would they keep making and shipping them, if they had no buyers? That just doesn't make sense.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-41536657809340861582019-06-21T12:49:38.550+00:002019-06-21T12:49:38.550+00:00Wann hat BYD endlich mehr Kapazität für ihre BEV F...Wann hat BYD endlich mehr Kapazität für ihre BEV Fahrzeuge?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16342778254664328939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-85451877956511569112019-06-21T10:03:44.067+00:002019-06-21T10:03:44.067+00:00I have been thinking about that too, consequence o...I have been thinking about that too, consequence of the oficial numbers being consistently lower than my ship-based estimates.<br /><br />I think Tesla overvalued the initial Model 3 demand in China, that is why they put GF3 on Fast Forward.<br /><br />I have no doubt there is Model 3 unsold inventory in China, but how big that number is, i do not know. José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-52739390290892261292019-06-21T09:57:36.180+00:002019-06-21T09:57:36.180+00:00Considering the ships that arrived to China, i was...Considering the ships that arrived to China, i was estimating a higher number of deliveries, but when the import numbers come my way, usually with a two weeks delay over the China post, then numbers are lower than estimated, that is why the Model 3 deliveries are revised downwards. José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-39098775332573794152019-06-21T09:53:55.323+00:002019-06-21T09:53:55.323+00:00Doubt that, the Sylphy EV is locally made in China...Doubt that, the Sylphy EV is locally made in China, and Asian Leafs come from Japan.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-29568214278811086942019-06-21T08:53:42.126+00:002019-06-21T08:53:42.126+00:00Something doesn't add up with the sales number...Something doesn't add up with the sales numbers. Tesla sent 14 ships to China (8 in Q1 and 6 in Q2), which should amount to roughly 42000 cars (3000 cars per ship), and probably around 80% of them Model 3. And yet, the sales so far are 7400.<br /><br />In Europe, Tesla sent 13 ships (8 in Q1 and 5 in Q2), but at least they are selling 3-4 times more in Europe than in China.<br /><br />If every 10000 cars of inventory in China equates to roughly 500 mil $ of unsold inventory, that is not a good picture in this moment.Goranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00575543114060447009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-46680684819393214292019-06-21T05:45:55.523+00:002019-06-21T05:45:55.523+00:00Note: since last Sunday, Model 3 SR+ is not availa...Note: since last Sunday, Model 3 SR+ is not available in Tesla's China website (US produced version).Goranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00575543114060447009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-56581291020240988982019-06-20T15:57:55.180+00:002019-06-20T15:57:55.180+00:00Very much appreciate the data, but I noticed your ...Very much appreciate the data, but I noticed your numbers on Model 3 indicate downward revisions for May and/or April, as ytd 7392-1000=5392 vs 6738 ytd reported for May. And in May the 6738-3000 for May=3738 ytd didn't conform with 5300 reported for April. Can you clarify where each month now falls?Dreamspinnrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15107115235119853741noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-79272668400754131602019-06-20T15:04:54.613+00:002019-06-20T15:04:54.613+00:00Jose hi,
I have heard from a dealer rep in the US...Jose hi,<br /><br />I have heard from a dealer rep in the US that some 1/3 of US Leaf manufacturing is being shipped to China. Do you know anything of this? If true, do you think it is badged as Sylphy as well?<br /><br />Thanks, Assaf Assafhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11188017443952727403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-23925964076455390762019-06-20T14:11:36.183+00:002019-06-20T14:11:36.183+00:00May 1249 as per: http://www.chinamobil.ru/eng/byd/...May 1249 as per: http://www.chinamobil.ru/eng/byd/e1/?view=sales<br /><br />Best wishes<br />Ahmet GizAhmet Gizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17455686936256129791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-43796369096374923912019-06-20T10:06:42.679+00:002019-06-20T10:06:42.679+00:00I think it is a good sign, as previously PHEVs had...I think it is a good sign, as previously PHEVs had priority in production, because for 1 BEV, they could sell 3 PHEVs, earning more money with it…<br /><br /><br />Apparently, they have more battery output, which allows them to ramp up BEV production of the Qin and Song and even launch barely profitable models (e1). José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-7853994921935896522019-06-20T10:02:13.841+00:002019-06-20T10:02:13.841+00:00Around 1,500 in May. Well, it's a bit the same...Around 1,500 in May. Well, it's a bit the same problem as the Yuan, because BYD is battery constrained, the most expensive and profitable models have priority, so i guess the e1 will be on the back of the line until they have enough batteries. Or demand for other models falls.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.com