tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post677259367099146901..comments2024-03-24T15:03:03.162+00:00Comments on EV Sales: Norway October 2018José Ponteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-57373356476039471042019-11-17T13:16:30.632+00:002019-11-17T13:16:30.632+00:00Other than Europe, the e-tron is currently on sale...Other than Europe, the e-tron is currently on sale, at least, in USA, Canada, Mexico, Israel, China, Japan and New Zealand. The production setup at Forest plant is set for 60.000 vehicles, both the e-tron and the e-tron sportback, for all their versions. Since first year production is set to 40.000 vehicles, and Audi supplys ex-works only pre-sold vehicles, it should be noted that I mention vehicle sales, not vehicle registrations. I happen to be holding numbers for some registrations, but information is business, and I do not disclose them costless.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-80213739996560113902019-11-16T04:29:29.403+00:002019-11-16T04:29:29.403+00:00It was a guess, based on European and US deliverie...It was a guess, based on European and US deliveries. Are they even selling them in China? Don't remember having heard anything regarding that -- but maybe that's because there are so many other EVs there that this one doesn't make much of an impact ;-)<br /><br />Do you have a source for the "well above 3000", or is that also just a guess?...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-76469397824778476502019-11-15T11:01:14.162+00:002019-11-15T11:01:14.162+00:00Looks like you aren't using very accurate sour...Looks like you aren't using very accurate sources for your numbers.<br />In the EUR region alone, e-tron reached more than 1500 registrations, adding to that, just USA registrations, it almost reaches 2000 vehicles. Then, it is left all RoW market numbers, including the numbers for China. Vehicles sold are well above 3000 units.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-10269020165750077402019-11-14T20:37:47.005+00:002019-11-14T20:37:47.005+00:00Well, capacity is supposedly 50,000 a year, i.e. m...Well, capacity is supposedly 50,000 a year, i.e. more than 4,000 each month... September deliveries were something like 2,000 world wide I guess? So still quite a bit to go...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-80176808280435956192019-11-14T09:26:01.815+00:002019-11-14T09:26:01.815+00:00I believe they finally finished the production ram...I believe they finally finished the production ramp up, so this might be still some waiting list left overs.<br /><br />If not, then it is good news for the organic demand of the e-Tron, it means that is growing.<br />José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-87934806558787236132019-11-13T16:13:53.099+00:002019-11-13T16:13:53.099+00:00The easiest explanation is exhaustion of the initi...The easiest explanation is exhaustion of the initial backlog from pent-up demand for Model 3. (Historically, new Tesla models usually see a short-lived peak at the beginning, followed by a major depression as pent-up demand is exhausted, followed by a slower but more sustainable rise to an "organic demand" level.)<br /><br />Some are also speculating that other European markets might be getting starved of deliveries as Tesla attempts to deliver as many cars as possible in the Netherlands, before the upcoming fiscal changes...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-54871650993064513932019-11-13T16:06:11.361+00:002019-11-13T16:06:11.361+00:00These are possible explanations (in reply to an ex...These are possible explanations (in reply to an explicit question) -- not excuses. There is no need for excuses.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-44536874413119221542019-11-13T16:02:38.390+00:002019-11-13T16:02:38.390+00:00Interesting. I wonder what could have caused the j...Interesting. I wonder what could have caused the jump in e-tron registrations, if it's not the new variant?<br /><br />(And whether it is sustainable, or a one-time spike?...)antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-174147564721730322019-11-13T15:59:00.214+00:002019-11-13T15:59:00.214+00:00Well, I wouldn't exactly say that PHEV sales a...Well, I wouldn't exactly say that PHEV sales are "jumping"... With a few exceptions, sales of most models seem to be more or less in line with the earlier part of this year; with total sales up a bit only from some newly (re-)introduced models.<br /><br />It just feels like a jump when looking at year-over-year numbers, because of last year's WLTP-related anomaly, where sales where artificially elevated in the first part of last year (so it looked like a major drop early this year), and artificially depressed in the latter part of last year (so it looks like a major increase now...)antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-61843538176949850362019-11-13T10:27:34.957+00:002019-11-13T10:27:34.957+00:00The peaks are March, *June, and *September, not Ju...The peaks are March, *June, and *September, not July and October. And yes there's a clear downward trend, although this could be due to several factors so we don't yet know the true stable demand.<br /><br />March was the first peak month with a lot of pent-up demand.<br />In June Tesla began shipping M3s to the UK.<br />In September Tesla focused heavily on Netherlands, and looks to continue doing this.<br />So it might be a while before we see genuine organic demand, it might stabilise, it might continue to trend downwards.Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14460048887563528351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-85461035661159148072019-11-13T07:38:44.601+00:002019-11-13T07:38:44.601+00:00@Ioniq: It is the new model.@Ioniq: It is the new model.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-58213394583250134562019-11-13T07:37:01.837+00:002019-11-13T07:37:01.837+00:00Could be, what i am seeing across Europe is that P...Could be, what i am seeing across Europe is that PHEV sales are jumping through the roof, but BEVs continue growing more or less at the same pace as before.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-91172597626252918802019-11-12T21:01:12.771+00:002019-11-12T21:01:12.771+00:00Surprisingly, the stock of ICEs is hardly reducing...Surprisingly, the stock of ICEs is hardly reducing yet, because the population and car fleet of Norway are growing. The best figures I can find are that in Dec 2013 there were 2.52m ICE cars + 0.02m EVs, in Dec 2018 there were 2.57m ICEs + 0.20m EVs. My estimate for October 2019 is 2.54m ICEs + 0.26m EVs.<br /><br />There are 15,600 buses in Norway. At the start of this year hardly any were electric, but during the year one or two hundred have been ordered.<br />Robert McLachlanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14524329737512668181noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-43339986889856212652019-11-12T16:17:15.019+00:002019-11-12T16:17:15.019+00:00When comparing March, July and October monthly sal...When comparing March, July and October monthly sales of Tesla (peak months for each quarter) there is a clear trend going downwards. Any idea what could be the reason behind it?Holidays in Bulgariahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05538215754052520663noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-11712529494220492682019-11-12T09:57:23.944+00:002019-11-12T09:57:23.944+00:00Quite a book of excuses going on there, aren't...Quite a book of excuses going on there, aren't we?<br />From any perspective, it is factual that the Model X is the most unsuccessful vehicle from Tesla, not only in Norway but in general. That model only came out barely 5 years ago. There has been the novelty factor of permanent OTA upgrade functionality and not least the Raven upgrade. If Tesla decides to forgo traditional advertisement, that is their decision, they can keep counting with the work of their army of fans and supporters.<br /><br />If the e-tron is cheaper that is because few optional equipment was specified and Tesla decided to battle competition by dropping prices and curbing versions. It is a fact that European buyers trust better established carmakers with vast service networks and better customer communication.<br />Anyway, the product always strive by itself, just look how the Model 3 is faring worldwide, at least so far...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-4390083566652555052019-11-12T09:42:11.213+00:002019-11-12T09:42:11.213+00:00Concerning the e-tron, no, you can order the new 5...Concerning the e-tron, no, you can order the new 50 version now but need to wait until 2020 to get it delivered.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-34395288794549588962019-11-11T22:27:43.834+00:002019-11-11T22:27:43.834+00:00Several possible reasons. First of all, the e-tron...Several possible reasons. First of all, the e-tron is actually quite a bit cheaper in Europe. (As it should be: considering that it not only comes with inferior specs, but is also smaller -- especially in terms of interior space...)<br /><br />Another factor is that in the Netherlands -- one of Tesla's strongest markets in Europe -- Model X sales were pulled forward before the end of 2018 because of fiscal changes.<br /><br />There is also a certain novelty factor: newer car models almost always sell better than those that have been on the market for a while -- in part because they feel fresher, and in part because they attract buyers who didn't like models previously available...<br /><br />Then there is brand loyalty: people who bought Audi before might consider an Audi EV but not other brands.<br /><br />Another difference is that Audi does traditional advertisement, which Tesla refuses to do.<br /><br />And last but not least, it appears that many European buyers generally trust an established European brand more than an American upstart -- even if it's objectively inferior in almost every regard...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-54852002955899875622019-11-11T18:22:47.956+00:002019-11-11T18:22:47.956+00:00Just like availibility of Tesla is limiting sales,...Just like availibility of Tesla is limiting sales, it is also availability of others e-cars is doing the same. <br /><br />What is striking especially in Europe, the e-tron is having geenrally more sales than Tesla X. Being more expensive and on paper less capable makes this even more interesting. Any thoughts on this? Pablitonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-18368771364645551892019-11-11T16:58:48.379+00:002019-11-11T16:58:48.379+00:00Results are expected. Almost all manufacturers are...Results are expected. Almost all manufacturers are pushing all deliveries of EVs into 2020 for the EU regulations (yes, Norway's sales counts even though they are not in the EU).<br /><br />Registrations in the country is about deliveries, not sales. Tesla manufactures to Europé in the beginning of the quarter and deliver at the middle/end when the fully loaded boats arrive. First month of the quarter means that there are no Tesla cars to deliver because there are no boats here at the time.<br /><br />It is quite simple. December will be great, because of Tesla. And january will be awesome because of all the other manufacturers pushing deliveries to next year.Mikaelhttp://www.ev.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-16224284732992459232019-11-11T16:13:39.456+00:002019-11-11T16:13:39.456+00:00It's really simple to understand why both of t...It's really simple to understand why both of those happened.<br /><br />The first month of every quarter is slow for Tesla in Europe, this is widely understood - and I know it's been explained to you before.<br /><br />Chinese sales are down because incentives have been phased out/reduced, this was also entirely expected.Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14460048887563528351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-11625687012186282872019-11-11T14:58:46.929+00:002019-11-11T14:58:46.929+00:00I presume Ioniq is already the new model? And e-tr...I presume Ioniq is already the new model? And e-tron probably includes the new lower-range variant?antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-46497766242653510082019-11-11T14:56:58.711+00:002019-11-11T14:56:58.711+00:00Indeed. While the dominance isn't quite as str...Indeed. While the dominance isn't quite as striking as in the US, the effect is similar: when Tesla has a weak month, the entire market is down...<br /><br />(Though limited availability of Kona and model switchover of Zoe are also contributing a bit...)<br /><br />I wonder whether the re-introduced PHEV models are taking away from BEV sales at all? I'd guess that they are mostly just substituting remaining combustion car sales...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-62747109283462477832019-11-11T14:49:59.718+00:002019-11-11T14:49:59.718+00:00The numbers suggest that total sales (all power so...The numbers suggest that total sales (all power sources) are significantly down from previous year...<br /><br />Considering that combustion cars (including plug-less hybrids) are only ~40% of new sales now, I'm pretty sure the total stock is going down as well.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-57063315212760392572019-11-11T14:46:58.627+00:002019-11-11T14:46:58.627+00:00Amazing: you've been here for several years, a...Amazing: you've been here for several years, and *still* can't figure out Tesla's delivery pattern...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-78795386349548668742019-11-11T10:30:36.787+00:002019-11-11T10:30:36.787+00:00I'm curious about what % of cars are now HEV, ...I'm curious about what % of cars are now HEV, PHEV, & BEV in Norway, and whether the stock of ICE cars have been reduced, or if there are as many now as a decade or so ago but with fleet growth coming from xEVs? (I'd also love to see these stats for buses, LCVs, HCVs, etc)Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14460048887563528351noreply@blogger.com