Global Sales by Automotive Group - Q1 2019

With the first quarter of the year done, it is time to see how the main PEV Automotive Groups have behaved:


1. BYD Group (71.504, +150%);

2. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (60.031, +21%);

4. Geely Group (34.746, +109%);

5. BMW Group (29.208, +5%).


As we can see, the top two makers are really in a league of their own, more than doubling their sales. The Alliance (including JMC) is still close to the other two, but its growth rate is smaller.

Regarding 2018, Geely has jumped 3 spots, to 4th, surpassing its Chinese rivals and a stagnating BMW.


Looking just at BEVs, the ranking goes like this:

1. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

2. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (46.768, +16%);

3. BYD Group (45.758, +758%);

4. BAIC (26.106, +21%);

5. Hyundai-Kia (19.632, +132%).


In the BEV ranking, Tesla is the expected leader, while BYD BEVs are growing exponentially, surely surpassing the Alliance soon, while the #5 Hyundai-Kia are also on the fast lane.

2018 Global Sales by OEM (Updated)

Looking at the 2018 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

Regarding the previous post, both Tesla (12%) and BYD (11%) maintained their lead, but last year winner, the #3 Renault-Nissan Alliance (9%, -1%), lost a bit more ground, with the rising BAIC (8%, +1%) cutting distances to the podium, having surpassed BMW in November, to reach #4. 

Regarding the remaining OEMs, there is one significant change, with Hyundai-Kia surpassing the almighty VW Group and reaching #8, which says a lot about what is happening right now...

Interestingly, half of the Top 10 belongs to Chinese OEMs, and if we add Tesla to the Disruptors team, Legacy OEMs are a minority in the Top 10. Is this a sign of the New World Order in the automotive industry?

Looking at last year standings, and comparing it with 2018, there are noticeable changes, Tesla jumped from #5 to the leadership, Renault-Nissan dropped from #1 to 3rd, Geely dropped two positions, to #6, SAIC was up two spots to #6, while the Volkswagen was down two spots, to #9.

Highlighting the changing times, we have two new Automotive Groups in the Top 10, with Hyundai-Kia jumping to #8, and Chery reaching #10, kicking out General Motors, now #11, and Toyota (down to #15!) out of the Top 10. 

The Toyota case is particularly worrying, not only because it is one of the largest Automotive OEMs, and in this ranking is only #15, but also because in a fast growing market, it was one of the few (the only?) OEMs to lose sales (-10%) regarding 2017...


BEVs Only

Looking only at BEVs, the ranking would be like this:

1. Tesla (245.240);

2. BAIC (165.369);

3. Renault-Nissan (150.374);

4.  BYD (105.420);

5. Chery (64.897).

The disruption is even more visible here, with only Renault-Nissan on the Top 5, and Tesla winning even more easily.

In fact, if we have  increased this to a Top 10, we would only have another Legacy OEM here, Hyundai-Kia, #7, with 58.990 units.

So, BMW and the VW Group are still too PHEV-based to be considered one of the leading Legacy OEMs. Maybe things will look different in 2020? 

2017 Global Sales by OEM

The Global December sales post is coming soon, but taking on a reader suggestion, i've decided to post this Top 10 ranking by Automotive Group, the 2017 edition was truly exciting to see unfold, with several OEMs separated by what can only be described as split hairs, which bodes well for the dynamics of the market, with no one truly owning the market. And that's how i like it: "Diversity breeds Competition, Competition breeds Improvement".

Here are the 10 Best Selling OEMs of 2017:

1. Renault-Nissan Alliance (119.195 units)

The addition of Mitsubishi to the lineup masked a soft selling year, mostly due to the sunset-mode of the Nissan Leaf, but with its new version arriving soon, expect The Alliance to continue prospering throughout 2018. reaching between 200k to 250k units in 2018.

2. BYD Group (113.949)

Despite a struggling start, BYD got their act together and even managed to surpass their chronic production constraints, growing 14% regarding 2016. Growth is expected to continue in 2018, but with (even) more aggressive OEMs coming right behind it, it could have its podium place in danger this year...

3. BAIC Group (104.536)

The surprise of the year. Thanks to the EC-Series, the 2017 Best Selling EV, Beijing Auto, which includes Changhe Auto, became the Third largest OEM in the plug-in world, and if we limit just to BEVs, it is the Biggest, overcoming Tesla and the Renault-Nissan Alliance. How high can it go this year? Even it the 2017 growth rate (+126%) is not possible to repeat, i guess 170k units will be a reasonable target for BAIC to beat.

4. Geely Group (103.194)

The Chinese juggernaut, known to have almost as many brands as the Volkswagen Group, profited from the general growth of their plug-in offer (Zhidou, Geely, Volvo, etc...) to post a surprising result of over 103.000 units. With yet another brand addition to the lineup in 2018, with the recent, and irreverent, Lynk & Co starting to make their own PEVs, Geely is set to continue on the growth path throughout 2018.

5. Tesla (103.122)

Despite what some fanboys dream, the American brand is not (yet, at least) taking over the EV world, in fact in 2017 its growth rate (36%) was below what the global PEV market (+58%) had, so in fact, Tesla lost share last year...Expect things to change radically in 2018, with the Model 3 ramp up, with the brand deliveries expected to reach some 250k units by year end, which, it should be said, is no garantee to earn its first Best Selling Maker award, as other OEMs (Read: Chinese ones) are also stepping up dramatically. 

6. BMW Group (103.080)

In a very German way, the Luxury maker said previously it was going to reach 100.000 in 2017, and so it did, making it the Best performing legacy OEM by far. Sure, most are short-range PHEVs, but neverthless, they count here and they helped to Place BMW as the last of the "Big 6" plug-in makers of 2017. With a target of 150.000 PEVs set for 2018, count them in to reach such number, with some units to spare.

7. Volkswagen Group (70.314)

The Volkswagen Group was the Best Seller of the laggards Group B, with 70.000 units, currently struggling with shortage supply of batteries for some models (VW e-Golf, Porsche Panamera PHEV...), and not enough love regarding some other models (VW e-Up!), apart from the e-Golf (30 k in 2018?), do not expect significant growth coming from here, as their eyes are all set in 2019.

8. SAIC Group (56.149)

The smallest of the Chinese "Big 4", it has nevertheless great prostpects for 2018, not only because of the potential of the Wuling E100 (This model alone can reach some 60k in 2018), but Roewe will continue to grow, and with the addition of MG to the plug-in lineup, sales can only go up, maybe even surpassing the 150k of BMW...

9. General Motors (55.188)

It might come as shock to many of the readers, maybe in the same degree as seeing Tesla only in Fifth, but the #9 spot of General Motors is simply explained: Bad management. By concentrating their efforts in North America, they are letting go of the two largest engines of growth, the first is by far China, where they have two models (Buick Velite/Volt & Cadillac CT6 PHEV) with the wrong kind of technology (China is BEV-friendly), both selling poorly, while they have a possible winner (Bolt) still slowly ramping up production in their US factory after more than a year on the market. Which leads us to to the Second Engine of growth (Europe), where GM was greedy while negotiating  the Opel sell to PSA, effectively ending the Ampera-e (Bolt) career in Europe. Actually, the current GM management is akin to the current USA goverment: "America First". The problem for them, is that the America global relevance is getting smaller and smaller every passing day and the world will go on, regardless of what happens there. (And why did i remembered the UK's Brexit?) 

10. Toyota (50.883)

Another surprise, just one model, a plug-in hybrid no less, allows Toyota to close this Top 10, ahead of heavyweights like Hyundai-Kia (41k), or Daimler-Mercedes (37k). Caught on the Fuel Cell delusion, Toyota efectivelly lost the upper-hand it had for years with the hybrid game, and only now is trying to get in the next generation (PEV) game. But do not rule them out, with millions of happy customers running around in their hybrids, their base will be a huge plus point, once they are back in The Game. If they reached #10 with only one model, image what they can do with two or three more...

2018 New Models

A Segment (City Cars)



Zhidou D3 EV

With the five best selling models in this segment coming from China, overseas legacy OEMs have no chance in succeding in this market on a global level, except on the (Not so) Cheap and Chic niche, where FIAT continues to waste the 500e potential by only offering it in a limited number of markets, so 2018 should continue to see the number of new small EVs increase in China, trying to replicate the BAIC EC-Series success. My bet lies on the Zhidou D3 EV, it won't reach the EC-Series sales numbers, but will probably reach the class podium seat, a year from now.

B Segment (Subcompacts)

Nissan Micra

No major news in this class, except for the promised EV version of the new Nissan Micra which, should it arrive, will face stiff competition, starting with its Renault Zoe and the BMW i3, the Japanese hatch won't be able to reach these two, but it could have a shot at Third Place.

C Segment (Compacts)

2018 Nissan Leaf

The most popular EV in the World, the Nissan Leaf, had a major facelift and will start to be delivered in most markets this year, Nissan has big ambitions for the new version, with a sales target of 150.000 units, possibly earning it the class best seller status and a podium seat in the PEV ranking.

D Segment (Midsize)

Tesla Model 3

The Tesla Model 3, the EV that everyone is talking about, technically landed in 2017, but mass production will only start in 2018, so the Tesla Model 3 will possibly be the major introduction this year, being the main candidate for Best Selling PEV in 2018, with 200k/250k units likely. Another interesting addition is the Honda Clarity PHEV, also technically a 2017 model, will have its full potential shown this year, willing to keep up with the sales of the German midsizers, particularly the increasingly successful BMW 330e.

E Segment (Full Size)

Porsche Mission E

With the German Autobahn-PHEV-bruisers still far from running at the same sales pace of the all-conquering Tesla Model S, the Freemont-made car will only have a serious contender in 2019, when the Porsche Mission E is set to land. Will it outsell the Model S? Doubt it, but will likely make a dent in the Tesla Sport-Sedan sales, the first to do so...

F Segment (Full Size Luxury)

Audi A8 PHEV

If this year the Porsche Panamera PHEV trounced the established players, easily winning the race, the upcoming Audi A8 PHEV will have the same PHEV hardware as the Porsche, but despite this, it will have a harder time to make an impact, i believe Audi would already be pleased if it reached a podium seat...

SUV / CUV

2018 Porsche Cayenne PHEV

With the mainstream auto market suffering from a Crossover fever, the PEV niche is also not immune to it, with the Hyundai Kona BEV, Kia Niro PHEV/BEV and Yuan PHEV/BEV twins making an impact in the class, if the respective brands manage to make enough of them, which isn't a given, these are models that could possibly run for a Top 5 spot in the class.

The new Porsche Cayenne PHEV will try to replicate the success of the 2nd Gen Panamera PHEV in the Full-size Premium SUV class, trying to reach a podium seat in its niche.

Fully electric Premium SUVs will start arriving in 2018, with the Jaguar i-Pace and Audi e-Tron being the first representatives of the so-called Model X killers. If the German model is set to arrive only by the end of the year, and in limited quantities, qualifying it more as a 2019 model, the British model is set to arrive sooner (Summer?), and by the end of this year we should have an idea of how big will be its impact on the market.

A bit of a Dark Horse, with a lot to prove, but also with plenty to win, the NIO ES8 is the first mass-market model from a Chinese startup to arrive. Will it be any good? Will the brand be able to make it in large quantities? More importantly, in the long run, will buyers continue to flock into it by the thousands?

So...Lots of stuff going on in this class.

MPV / Minivans

With two of the class Best Sellers (Ford C-Max Energy and Mercedes B250e) ending their career, and no big novelties in 2018, it's up to the BMW 225xe AT, and the oldtimer BYD e6 the difficult task to sustain the momentum in 2018.

LCV / Vans

Nissan e-NV200

In a segment dominated until 2017 by just two models, the Renault Kangoo ZE and Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia, the delivery ramp up of the StreetScooter Work allowed it to race with the previous two, with the Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia still leading the (small) pack. With the Japanese van set to receive the 40 kWh battery from the new Nissan Leaf soon, expect it to breakaway from the remaining two this year.

Sports Cars / Convertibles

BMW i8 Spyder

After putting to shame the little competition it had over these last four years, the BMW i8 is almost synonymous with this category, entering in 2018 with upgrades and the long awaited Spyder version, so at least until the arrival of the new Tesla Roadster, the i8 has this market all to itself.

Pick-up Trucks

Tesla Model ????

With the end of the Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck, of which were made some 1.000 units over a four year span, this highly profitable class have only competitors from China, with the 2017 Best Selling Electric Pick-up Truck  being the Dongfeng Rich EV selling some 400 units. 

In fact, the largest number of electric pick-ups of a single model still date date back for the Dinosaur Era (Ford Ranger EV, with 1.705 units delivered from 1998 to 2002).

 It seems we all have to wait for Tesla to shake things up with its own Pick-up Truck...

Auotomotive Groups - September 2017

SAIC joins the Top 10, mostly thanks to this model

Automotive Group	Units	% of sales
Renault-Nissan	89.245	12
Tesla	73.227	10
BYD Group	71.070	9
BMW Group Geely Gr. (w / Zhidou)	68.687 68.494	9 9
BAIC	58.716	7
Volkswagen Group	46.730	6
Toyota	39.422	5
General Motors	37.387	5
SAIC Hyundai-Kia	29.434 26.774	4 3

Looking at sales by automotive groups, the Renault-Nissan Alliance, now reinforced with Mitsubishi, is unsurprisingly in the Pole Position, but its share has dropped 2%, to 12% share, no doubt result of the Nissan Leaf generation change, while Tesla remained in Second Place, with a BYD on full charge climbing to Third, at the expense of the BMW Group, down to Fourth.

The 2017 Best Selling OEM seems to be in the hands of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi trifecta, which has  successfully defending its lead over Tesla and BYD, with both OEMs struggling with production constraints.

As for the remaining players, rising star SAIC climbed to Tenth, meaning there are four Chinese OEMs (BYD; BAIC, Geely and SAIC) in the Top 10,  and i would't be surprised if it climbed a couple of positions in the future, as their models are possibly the best value for money PEVs in China.

Looking into 2018, the Renault-Nissan Alliance will receive an important reinforcement, with the new Leaf, possibly adding some 100k-120k units to the current tally, possibly ending the year at 220-250k units.

Tesla has its Model 3 to deliver en masse, a while ago i had predicted some 300k Model 3 deliveries next year, but considering the current state of the Tesla Nation, i believe its best to cut that to 250.000 units, adding some 100k from the Model S & X, and we have Tesla delivering around 350.000 units next year, which would make it the Best Selling OEM of 2018, a first for the Californian.

BYD is set to deliver some 110.000 units this year, a giant setback over the expected 200k for this year. So for 2018, it is complicated to forecast a number, especially because of their production ramp up issues, but i would say that it will be in the 175.000 units ballpark, a number that could put its podium position threatened by a fast growing BAIC.

As for the remaining OEMs, BMW and Geely will try to follow the pace of the aforementioned two, ending at around 150k, while the rest of the competition will be happy to reach 100.000 deliveries in one year.

And the 2017 Best Seller is...

...Complicated.

I don't think we have ever seen such tight races going into the last Quarter, as will be shown in the upcoming September World Top 10 article, the race for this year best selling model has three models separated by less than 2.000 units (Tesla Model S and Prius Prime, both at 39k units, with BAIC EC-Series - 38k units. All provisional numbers).

And the Fourth Placed is not far behind, with 36k, but because it is the Nissan Leaf and its Q4 will be no man's land, due to the transitional period into the new generation (Arrives in October to Japan, but first units only arrive in the US in December and in the case of Europe, in January), sales will suffer, so we can already discard it from the race.

So, back to the Top 3.

The Tesla Model S and Prius Prime are running neck to neck (Less than 200 units difference) to end September in Number one, with the Californian beating its all-time record and registering some 8.100 units last month, which means the Model 3 introduction not only didn't hurt sales, but actually helped to increase them.

We will only know the Japan sales of the Prius later in the month (Usually it's the last market to show data), but aside from a surprise deliveries surge, the Japanese hatchback is suffering from production constraints and hasn't yet released its full potential, running at 4.000-something units per month, when it could possibly reach some 10.000/month (It's record month was May, with 7.600 units).

So Toyota could win the 2017 Best Selling model title, IF it pushes the production of its PHEV forward. 

Now...Are they able/willing to do it?

But let's talk about the Dark Horse in the race, the BAIC EC-Series, in less than 12 months in the market, BAIC's first dedicated EV stirred the local market and has already sold over 42.000 units, being its already in its 2.0 version, thanks to an increase in the original range, from 180 to 200 kms, which originated a sales surge, jumping from 2.5k deliveries in June, to September's 9k, a new all-time record for a single model anywhere in the world.

Considering that the Chinese PEV market usually ends the years on a high note, it wouldn't be surprising if the little city could replicate those 9.000 registrations in the remaing months of the year, pulling their sales to some 65.000 units.

Considering the likely Q4 results of the Top 2 being some 14.000 units for the Model S and 16.000 for the Prius Prime, we would have the following 2017 podium:

1. BAIC EC-Series (65.000)

2. Toyota Prius Prime/PHEV (55.000)

3. Tesla Model S (53.000)

A surprising podium, not only because of the Prius, coming from almost 0 to Second Place, but mainly because, for the first time ever, a Chinese model would win the trophy, with the added surprise of  not coming from the BYD stable.

BYD Song

Speaking of BYD...What about the manufacturers ranking?

Things are also interesting, if not so tight.

In theory, we have three constestants to the Best Selling Manufacturer trophy, with Tesla in the lead, with 73.000 units, followed by BYD at 69.000 and BMW, with 66.000.

In reality, i doubt BMW will be able to follow the other two, despite having reached for the first time the five digit mark in September, with little over 10k, the truth is that the German carmaker lacks BYD's consistency while Tesla is 7k ahead and with the Model 3 kicking up sales, it shouldn't pose any threat to the US automaker too. 

Reaching the 100.000 mark this year would already be a big win for BMW.

So that leaves us with Tesla and BYD.

Regarding Tesla Q4 results, besides the Model S usual good form (14k units), the Model X should have above average results, thanks to the possible fiscal changes in Norway, which could mean a sales peak for this model in that market, so i'm guessing some 13.000 deliveries in the last quarter.

Add some 5.000 units coming from a Model 3 trying to leave Production Hell, and we have some 32.000 units being registered in Q4 2017, equalling to 105.000 units delivered this year.

What about BYD?

With the ambitious goals for this year (200k sales) now a thing of the past due to a miserable Q1, with only 9.000 deliveries, BYD is back on track and slowly improving month after month (Their own Production Hell?), having reached 11.800 units in September. If this slow production ramp up continues into December, we can see it deliver some 37.000 units in Q4, ending the year with 106.000 units. 

So, the final tally of the year would be:

1. BYD (106.000)

2. Tesla (105.000)

3. BMW (100.000)

Considering the small difference between BYD and Tesla, and unlike the models race, where we predict the Dark Horse stealing the show, in the manufacturers ranking it's really an open race, especially considering both brands are production constrained and will depend more on their ability to increase production output than actual demand.

Which is the best City EV?

After the success of this post, i decided to compare the current crop of city BEVs in Portugal and see which would the best:


Range



BMW i3 - 4

Kia Soul EV - 3

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 2

Renault Zoe - 5 (300 kms real world range, 43 kW AC charging available)

Smart Forfour ED - 1

Volkswagen e-Up! - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 6


Space



BMW i3 - 3

Kia Soul EV- 4

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 1

Renault Zoe - 5 (Five usable seats, 338 liters in the trunk)

Smart Forfour ED - 2

Volkswagen e-Up! - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 6


Reliability / Running costs


BMW i3 - 3

Kia Soul EV - 5 (7 year warranty, reliable battery)

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 1

Renault Zoe - 4

Smart Forfour ED - 1

Volkswagen e-Up! - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 3


Manoeuvrability / Dynamics

BMW i3 - 5 (Unbeatable Dynamics, near perfect manoeuvrability)

Kia Soul EV - 1

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 4

Renault Zoe - 2

Smart Forfour ED - 4

Volkswagen e-Up! - 4

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 3



Price


BMW i3 - 1

Kia Soul EV - 4

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 7

Renault Zoe - 4

Smart ForFour ED - 8 (At circa 24.000 eur, it is 18.000 eur cheaper than the BMW i3...)

Volkswagen e-Up! - 6

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 2

Total

BMW i3 - 16 (Good range, stellar Dynamics, too bad about the price...)

Kia Soul EV - 17 (A balanced car, but there are more suited models for city driving) 

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 15 (Great price and manoeuvrability, but the world has moved on when it comes to the rest...)

Renault Zoe - 20 (Spacious city car with unbeatable range, which compensates some shortcomings in the manoeuvrability side)

Smart Forfour ED - 16 (Great price and fit for the city, but needs better range and increased charging speed)

Volkswagen e-Up! - 16 (Typical Volkswagen personality traits: Not bad at anything, not especially good in any item and slightly overpriced for what it is)

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 20 (Awesome range, unbeatable interior, but at an estimated 39k eur, it is playing in a different, higher class)