Help Needed

Dear readers, as Electric Sales grows, so does the need for more comprehensive and accurate data, on top of that, plug-ins are spreading to more and more countries and sometimes it is difficult to detect and/or extract data from these new markets, so i'm calling for your help, if you can get EV sales data or know EV Associations from the below markets, please send me an email (efeelblog@gmail.com), so that we can put them on the map and "Spread the Word". Your help can be anonymous if you want and will be greatly appreciated.

Japan

Data is available on some models, but lacking regular data on others, like the Nissan e-NV200 or  imports, etc, which prevents us from getting a full picture of the EV Scene;

UK

One of EV Sales "Moby Dick", there's regular data on global volumes from SMMT, but data from individual models is sparse and comes with several months delay, with this market growing by the day, it becomes more and more important to know what is going on here.

India

There is some data regarding the Mahindra Reva E2O performance here, but it is not a regular source and it misses the rest of the electric market, now that the Indian market is seriously considering EV's, it would be great if we could start following this market.

Poland & Switzerland

There's only monthly data by single models (eg, Nissan Leaf), if anyone has access to the full data, including ICE-based plug-ins, please contact me;

Other Markets that require data source:

Bulgaria, Brazil, Chile, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Malaysia, Romania, Slovenia & Thailand

Netherlands June 2018

Loads of these filled the Dutch streets last month.

Record month for Tesla

June had 2,309 registrations, up 141% regarding the same month last year, pulling the year to date count to 9,074 units (+131%), and the 2018 share up, to 3.6%, with June reaching 4.9%, the best result in 18 months.

Tesla's usual last-month-of-quarter peak last month had the help of the 200k registrations management in the US, with the EV carmaker focusing Model S & X deliveries in overseas markets, and the Dutch market was one that profited the most, with both the Model S (675 units) and the Model X (475) shattering their previous records, a feat even more astounding in the case of the Model S, considering that the nameplate already has 5 years of history in the Netherlands...In all, Tesla delivered a record 1,125 units last month, outselling Audi(!) in that same period. 

The new generation is doing wonders for the Nissan Leaf, performing its fourth consecutive 200-something registrations month, with the BMW i3 ending the month in Fourth, with 156 units, its best result in 30 months, while the VW e-Golf was Fifth, with 144 deliveries.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model S	650
2	Tesla Model X	475
3	Nissan Leaf	251
4	BMW i3	156
5	VW e-Golf	144

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the Nissan Leaf did what it had been threatening lately, surpassing the VW e-Golf and reaching the runner-up status. If the German automaker wants to keep the podium position and race the Japanese hatchback for the Best Selling affordable BEV title, it will need to step up production.

Profiting from the unusual high tide in June, the Tesla Model X climbed to #4, and has now its headlights set on the VW e-Golf rear, so we could see a Tesla 1-3 by next September.

The Renault Zoe recovered one place, climbing to #7, thanks to 130 units (Year Best), while the Mini Countryman PHEV jumped two spots, to #13, thanks to 24 registrations, its best performance in a year.

But the leadership on the PHEV League continues to belong to the Porsche Panamera PHEV, with 220 units (36 in June) and #9 in the PEV ranking, although the Best Seller of the Month was the surprising Hyundai Ioniq PHEV, that finally made its oficial debut in this market, with 55 units, leaping to #14. Was this a one time thing, or will the efficient Korean hatchback replicate these numbers in the coming months, making some waves on the PHEV league?

Elsewhere, we welcome in #18 the BMW i8, back at the Best Sellers list, thanks to 15 units registered in June, if we go back a few years, the BMW Sports Car was the second plug-in model (The first was the Tesla Model S) to go head to head with their ICE competition, so we wish all the best for the second coming of the i8, last month it was the Second Best Seller of the Sports Car class, only behind the eternal Porsche 911 (58 units).  

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (31%, up 7%) is far ahead in the lead, with Volkswagen (13%, down 2%) being surpassed by the new #2 Nissan (14%, down 1%), while Hyundai and BMW, both with 10%, are outside the podium, waiting for an opportunity to join the Top 3.

Source: RAI Vereniging

Editor's note: In order to separate short range BEVs and PHEVs from longer range models, from now on, only the Longer Range models (>=50 kms for PHEVs; >=300 kms for BEVs - WLTP cycle) will be in Bold, as such, in this Top 20, only Teslas, the Renault Zoe, Opel Ampera-e and Hyundai Ioniq PHEV are in Bold, separating them from their lower range competitors.

Regular Hybrids + Plug-ins Ranking

Pl	Model	June  Sales
1	Tesla Model S	650
2	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	618
3	Kia Niro HEV	580
4	Tesla Model X	475
5	Toyota C-HR Hybrid	469

If we add regular hybrids to plug-ins, the Tesla flood was so big in June that the Model S managed to outsell all hybrid models on the market, while the Model X also joined the ranking in Fourth.

In this Tesla vs HEVs edition, the resisting hybrids were the Toyota Yaris Hybrid in Second, being the only Toyota in the podium, followed by the #3 Kia Niro HEV and the #5 Toyota C-HR Hybrid.

Tesla Model S & Others

Pl	Model	2018 Sales
1	BMW 5-Series	2050
2	Tesla Model S	1761
3	Volvo S/V90	1187
4	Mercedes E-Class	983
5	Audi A6	698

With the Model S profiting from the quarter-end deliveries peak, it doubled deliveries of the #2 BMW 5-Series in June, so it's best to see the full year sales, so far in 2018, the Tesla Model S is second only to the BMW 5-Series, with the remaining competition being far behind. 

Tesla Model X & Others

Pl	Model	2018 Sales
1	Tesla Model X	1042
2	Volvo XC90	533
3	LR Range Rover Sport	190
4	BMW X5	189
4	Porsche Cayenne	145

Big SUV's had a big hit with the end of PHEV incentives, and only the Volvo XC90 manages to have significant sales, looking at full year registrations, there's really no competition for the American Sports-Minivan-SUV.

Short Range / Long Range

A reader made a great suggestion for EVS that i am willing to use, besides the BEV/PHEV separation, EVS should distinguish also short range PHEVs, aka "compliance plug-ins", from longer range PHEVs.

Thing is, which will be the criteria?

EPA? WLTP?

And how many kms range should be the separation between both? 30 kms? 40? 50?

Now that we are on it, does it make sense to also separate BEVs?

Doing maybe three categories (Short range BEVs, <350 kms; Medium range, 350<530 kms; Long Range >530 kms)?

Winning and Losing OEMS of Electrification

We are witnessing the largest transformation of the auto industry in the last decades (Just look at Ford), but i believe it is too far fetched to believe in a future where current OEMs do not play a role, after all, Tesla can't do everything alone, folks. 

Just like Apple is not the sole provider of innovation and revenue in the consumer electronics business, and all the better for that, as diversity is the ground for innovation, Tesla will not be able to shift the transportation and energy ecosystem all by itself, as Elon Musk has recognized in the past.

If it has become a given that Tesla is/will become a force to be reckoned with in the Electrified, Autonomous, De-materialized future of transportation, many of the current OEMs will still be here in one way or another, so these are my OEM predictions in the auto landscape in five years time, which is worth what is worth (Not a lot), but works as food for thought:

Winners:

 Renault -Nissan Alliance - Already on its way to become one of the Big Three Auto Giants, along with VW Group and Toyota, the fact that Nissan, Renault and Mitsubishi count for one in four Plug-ins in the world (587k units) is itself a telling story, add that The Alliance has several trump cards up its sleeve for the near future, where the renewed Leaf (2018 World runner up after the Model 3?) is just one of them, and it all points that electrification will only benefit the French-Japanese conglomerate, we could even envision Renault-Nissan as the largest automaker in the world in a scenario where EV's take over the market at a faster pace than thought.

Hyundai - Kia - Despite being late party crashers, the Koreans came with competitive models (Think Ioniq Electric) at reasonable prices, so once they have enough production capacity to respond the demand they have now and will have in the future (Niro BEV and PHEV, Hyundai Kona SUV...), expect electrification to help the Group to keep on growing in the forseeable future.

Question Mark:

General Motors - If GM engineering should be praised by supporting plug-ins and creating interesting models (Volt I and II, Bolt...) and preparing itself for the future (Autonomous tech, etc), the business side of GM has been shooting themselves since the beggining, starting by not promoting the first Chevrolet Volt correctly in the US and elsewhere, then by not selling the Second Volt as Opel Ampera in Europe right on the time that PHEVs outsold BEVs there, now with selling Opel right on the time that the BEV Ampera-e prepared itself to be a hit and could save the German brand image from consumer oblivion, you can always count with GM management to boycott themselves from success.
With General Motors leaving important markets (Europe, India, Russia...), it is by its own free will becoming a smaller player in the Auto business, if that will translate in a stronger player in the markets it will stay, thus balancing the loss of volume from abandonned markets, remains to be seen, let's hope this time the GM Engineers win over the decision battle over bean counters and these last ones do not shoot themselves too much.

PSA - If it weren't for that Opel deal, i would have placed Peugeot Citroen dead certain on the Losers side, as the French Group didn't had a plan or competence on how to make electrification in a short term. But then they bought Opel and all of the sudden they got their hands on the brand with the longest range BEV at a reasonable price in Europe. This was possibly the strongest reason to buy Opel, and should the PSA management pull their strings right (And provided GM doesn't shoot themselves again), there could be an interesting partnership between GM and PSA regarding electrification, after all, if GM is not in Europe and PSA has its stronghold there, they wouldn't compete directly and PSA would have access to the compelling GM models through Opel, while also creating an opportunity to differenciate the German brand (After all, their symbol is a Lightning...) from their French counterparts. At the same time, General Motors would win scale for their Plug-ins, whic is crucial in these first days of paradigma shift. A lot of "ifs", but i wish it works, for the good of both OEMs.  

Losers:

Volkswagen Group - The Dieselgate might have been the best thing that happened to Volkswagen in the last years, because it worked as a wake up call from their "We are the best and we do not need to work hard to change" mantra that until then transpired from the largest European automotive group. Fast forward to May 2017 and the German group brands all have EV-dedicated models planned across the range, from Porsche to SEAT. So, despite a late wake up call, they should respond just in time for the major shifts in the market, helped by above average brand-loyalty and an already large plug-in customer base (153.000 VW Group Plug-ins sold, #5 largest in the world).
I have placed it in the Losers side because of China, Volkswagen and Audi currently are best selling brands there,  but on a fast changing China into electrification, i just don't see them moving fast enough to catch on, so if elsewhere VAG can retain their share, it will lose significant sales on the largest auto market in the world.    

BMW Group - Tesla is a real threat in the Premium market and of the Three German Marys, BMW was the first to make a serious effort to win space in the EV niche, first with the i3 and i8, clever models  (And branding) that didn't stealed sales from their established nameplates, then with PHEV versions of their regular models, now with plans to expand the lineup with long range BEVs, BMW, is one of the Premium automaker best prepared to resist the impact that Tesla will have on that category, so the German carmaker will lose customers to Tesla, but at the end of the day it won't suffer as much as other Premium brands.

Daimler Group - Possibly not as targeted by Tesla as Audi and BMW, as their customers are generally more luxury-oriented than the other two, and that is a field that Tesla is short in competence, the fact is that Mercedes will lose sales throughout the next years, as their plug-ins lose to the competition when it comes to specs, including the upcoming ones, like the EQ. Blame it on being a more conservative brand, fact is that their management sorely lacked vision when it decided to dispose itself from Tesla, back in 2014...

FCA - A late convert (If it really has), the fact is that their first true Plug-in (The Fiat 500e is a compliance car), the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid is a potential sales champion in North America, not only because it is a compelling product, but also because there's nothing like it. Imagining that drivetrain across the range (Maserati, Jeep, SUVs...) shouldn't be that hard and could be enough to hold their share in North America.
In Europe it will be another story, the 500e would have been a hit if properly launched in Europe, but because it wasn't and there are no signs of something like that happening soon, expect Fiat to start losing share at the same pace that Plug-ins steal share at regular ICE models.

Ford - Having been one of the pioneers of the EV game with the Focus Electric, one would think that the American brand would be a winner of electrification. Not so, in a niche that moves much faster than the mainstream market, six years without significant changes in their offerings is way too long, and without competitive specs, Ford is losing already the EV train. Let's see if the recent leadership can turn things around, but if it goes through this same path, not even their large Pick-ups will be safe from eroding sales. As for Lincoln, i doubt they will survive much beyond than the five years of  this forecast.

Toyota Group - Once the poster child of electrification with its Prius hybrid, now Toyota is in the uncomfortable position of running from behind, considering the success of the new Prius Plug-In, and if they put a Plug in all hybrids sooner than later, i believe they can turn around the table and not lose too much sales. On the other hand, Lexus should suffer greatly as Tesla reaches adulthood, leaving it in five years somewhere where Lincoln is now (Diehards brand).

Honda - Desperately changing their strategy (See Clarity), the Japanese carmaker is not in a comfortable place, having failed in their previous Plug-in attempts  (Accord PHEV...) and with FCEVs on their way to the Dodo, they are almost starting from scratch and are another OEM  hoping to partner with GM to have some sort of EV plan. We wish them well. As for Acura...See Lexus. But worse.

Mazda, Suzuki and other independent OEMs - Electrification is a resource-eating feature that cannot be done successfully alone, so they have three choices: Partnership with a larger OEM (GM? Toyota?), being bought by one of those OEMs (Remember Mitsubishi) or...Being slowly destined to insignificance. 

Before The Flood - The Film, Renewables and EV's

While watching "Before the Flood", for a moment i had a sense of deja vu, as in some points it reminded me of another film, the 2006 An Inconvenient Truth,  excluding narrative and cinematology (Actual word) details, the fact is that the essence of both is the same: 

Climate Change and urgence to cope with it.

Well, after 10 years, has anything changed?

To answer that, we have to rewind time even further.

1. Kyoto Protocol

Following the 90's global warming concerns, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, with the objective to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, with 192 countries currently now part of it. Only...It is non-binding for most countries, and also the USA, which accounted for 36% of emissions in 1990, signed the agreement but hasn't put it into practice, in fact things got worse in 2011, when Canada, Japan and Russia stated they would not take on Kyoto targets anymore.

In short, a lot of good intentions, but not a lot done in practice.

2. The Lost Years

The end of the Second Age of the Electric Car, in 2002, signaled also a slowdown in the cost reduction of Renewables, in fact we can say that the following 6 to 7 years after 2002 were lost to Green Tech, because of a hostile Political and Economical environment.   

 3. Back to Business

The year 2009 signaled a significant drop in Solar Power cost while at the same time the Third Age of the Electric Car started, leading to the point where we are now, Renewables and Electric Cars are the new Cool (Kudos Tesla) and ready to go into the mainstream business.

"Without time", some would say, as the four hottest years on record all happened after 2009, and 2015 was the hottest year ever, with the global climate giving its first signs of significant change, time seems in deed to be running out.

And that leads us to...

4. USA - The Lesser Evil Choice

Unlike what happened in the past, think around the year 2000, when the USA were a leader in Green Energy Tech, now that role belongs to Renewable Superpower China (#1 on EV's too), the choice US voters will make in a few days will still have an impact on the success of we how will tame Climate Change.

Regardless of what one might think regarding of each candidate (How did they managed to choose so poorly?), the fact is that US citizens have to choose between one of them, and this useful article helps to have an insight of what the outcome will be if one or the other gets elected regarding Climate Change.

Is it possible to go 100% EV?

"Is it possible to go 100% Electric?" - It was a question i made myself a few months back, as i wandered of the feasibility of that endeavor, having one electric car is easy, when you have a gas/diesel vehicle as a second choice for longer trips, but what about going all electric? 

To get the answer, i have started to register my family daily trips, based on the assumption that we would have a smaller car, for commutes and other short distances, in this case the car chosen would be a Renault Zoe, while for longer distances, the choice would necessarily be a larger car, with a longer range (Think Chevrolet Bolt, Leaf II), with the hypothetical choice being the Tesla Model 3.

To keep things safe in terms of range and usability, despite the Zoe having a 240 kms NEDC range, we would only consider it as having 120 kms range and the Model 3 some 250 kms, that way we would always would have a significant amount of extra-range for unexpected situations.

All trips were classified in one of four categories: 

* Commutes (20 kms or less);

* Small trips (Between 21 to 120 kms);

* Average trips (120 to 250 kms);

* Long trips (More than 250 kms).

The first two were considered suitable for both cars, while the larger ones were only considered fit for the Model 3.

Having registered the daily trips of our current ICE cars (One city car, other suited for longer trips) over a period of little more than three months, these were some conclusions we came to have:

City car "Zoe" 

- 81% of the trips were commutes, usually going to work, groceries, or other small trips around the neighborhood;

- 19% were small trips, usually going to traffic-congested Lisbon or other places where it would be hard to get easy parking;

The conclusion is the surprisingly high number of commutes, which is where the electric car feels most at ease, with no trips beyond 120 kms being made and no need for charging on the road. 

Is it possible to have an EV as a city car? YES, for my needs it is more than enough.

Larger car "Model 3"

- 22% of the travelling with the larger car were commutes, 48% were small trips, 22% average trips and only 9% were long trips;

With more diversified type of travelling, the Model 3 has a more challenging role to play, if commutes and small trips are nothing to scare a 250 kms range car, for average trips (121 - 250 kms), you have to make some calculations on the actual kilometers you will make on the trip and if there is fast charging along the road, Just in Case. 

The most challenging part of the equation are the longer, over 250 kms, travels.

We have made three and here are their (short) stories:

1 - Touring inland during one day, with 512 kms made. The first leg took 247 kms, mostly made on highway or mountain roads, at this stage the Model 3 would presumably be close to running empty of juice, but nothing to fear as there was a EVSE close and while we were touring the town, the car would have time to recharge just enough range to get into the Chademo Charger (Within a service station), little less than 100 kms away in the returning trip. Having reached the Chademo charger, we then would have to wait 45 minutes to an hour for the car battery to fill up (Or close), driving the remaining trip home without any range-anxiety. Unnecessary stops: One, at the Chademo charger/service station.

2 - Visiting Folks and family, 260 kms made. With the folks house some 230 kms away, that would't count as long-range-endangering-trip, but with other stops projected in the same day and part of the trip made on the highway, it could be a close call. Time to be resourceful then. While we were having lunch and putting conversation in place, the Model 3 would also have time to recover some juice in the domestic socket of my parents garage, enough to give those 20-30 kms needed for the next stops. Unnecessary stops: None, just needed to ask for a plug while the car was resting.

3 - Touring North, 321 kms made in day one. With a Chademo Charger (In the same service station as in 1) somewhere in the middle of the trip, we stopped to fill up the car during some 45 minutes, doing the rest of the travelling without range concerns. Unnecessary stops: One, at the Chademo charger/service station. 

Summarizing, 89% of all trips could have been done by an electric car like the Renault Zoe without a sweat, with that percentage growing to 97% with the Tesla Model 3.

Of the remaining 3%, they were also feasible, but they would involve charging outside your home and depend on Fast Charging and the waiting periods that come with them. Many people, like myself, would see it as minor inconveniences, but for others it would be a deal breaker.

A small note, during this period, i have realized that the two electric cars, one household type of families, might have a constraint: There will be times when both cars need overnight charging and if you usually only have one garage place and the other stays out, it could become tricky to charge both at the same time...  

Italy June 2016

The Model S is becoming something of a phenomenon within the Italian EV Market

 
 Renault Zoe Shines in Slow Market

The Italian EV market continues stagnant, with June Sales at around 200 sales, down 22% regarding the same period of 2015, with YTD sales back to red, down 2% YoY.

Looking at the models ranking, the big news were the 26 units of the Renault Zoe, its best performance this year and the first time it won a Monthly Best Seller trophy in 2016, allowing it to jump three positions to #9, which is still a discrete position for the Second Best Selling EV last year.

Below in the ranking, the highlights go for two models that have little in common apart from the fact that both are BEV's: The Tesla Model S is experiencing its best year ever in Italy, with 21 units delivered in June, while the veteran Citröen C-Zero continues to impress, with 19 sales, allowing it to continue in Fourth, its highest place in the ranking since the #3 won back in 2012...

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW is in the lead, with 32% Share (Down 1%), followed by Nissan (19%, down 2%), while Volkswagen (14%) is stable in the Third position.

Pl	Italy	June	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	15	277	19	1
2 3 4	BMW 330e e) BMW 225xe Act. Tourer Citröen C-Zero	15 20 19	203 183 114	14 13 8	N/A N/A 6
5 6	Volkswagen Golf GTE Tesla Model S	24 21	111 103	8 7	5 8
7 8	Renault Twizy e) Volkswagen Passat GTE e)	20 5	102 64	7 4	4 N/A
9 10	Renault Zoe Mercedes B250e	26 2	52 42	4 3	2 10
11 12 13 14 15 16	BMW X5 40e   e) Volvo V60 Plug-In e) Mitsu. Outlander PHEV e) Volkswagen e-Up! BMW i8    Peugeot iOn	5 5 1	40 36 30 27 23 16	3 2 2 2 2 1	11 16 7 12 13 22
17	Audi A3 e-Tron e)	5	15	1	17
18 19 20	BMW i3 Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Smart Fortwo ED	1 2	12 5 3	1 0 0	3 17 9
21	Volkswagen e-Golf	1	2	0	19
22 22	Renault Kangoo ZE Ford Focus Electric		1 1	0 0	N/A 25
	TOTAL	187	1.462	100

e) Estimate

Source: greenstart.it; unrae.it

Note: I'm going for vacations for a week, but EVS is not stopping, during this Summer Chilling period, there will be three new articles, one reporting sales by Automotive Groups, the Second updating the population of EV's with Fast Charging capabilities, while the Third has the following title: "Is it possible to go 100% Electric?", a practical case based on my own driving patterns.