Markets Roundup December 2018

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2018:

China

* BAIC EC-Series #1 - Once again the winner, but in 2019 it will have more competition; 

* 1.1 million units - At some point i started to expect 1 million units, and as the year came to an end, not only it got there, but actually surpassed it!. And the Market Share reached 4.2%, a bit more than the 2%-something of the USA or Europe. 

USA

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - First win for the Californian, the first of a couple wins that the nameplate will have until the Model Y lands;

* 350.000 sales - Strong second half of the year, leading to a 2.1% share.

Europe

* Nissan Leaf #1 - The Japanese hatchback won its first title since 2013, but it shouldn't repeat the feat in 2019, as that trophy should go for the Tesla Model 3;

* 386.000 units - Sales continue to grow steadily, with the PEV share reaching 2.5%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now outselling PHEV's. 

Japan

* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 52.000 units - What can i say, sales have dropped 7% and the PEV share has dropped to 1%. Big disappointment.

Canada

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - The new darling in Canada. How could it be otherwise?

* 43.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.2%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - Veni, vidi, vici. In only 8 months in the market, the Hyundai model surpassed everyone else, scoring even a new all-time record (11.000 units). The Kona EV is the EV Disruptor in Korea.

* 31.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.7%. How high will it reach in 2019? 3%? 4%? 5%? 

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV turf, PEV share above 1% (1.4%);

Israel - Mercedes GLC350e was #1, market has beaten all records in 2018 and reached 1.4% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Malaysia - BMW is king here, market is stable at around 1.2% share;

Australia - Slow growth, with the Tesla Model S winning the Best Seller title;

Brazil - Symbolic sales (less than 200 units) in such a large market, BYD e5 was the Best Seller;

Russia - Ditto for Russia (less than 300 units), Nissan Leaf stole the 2018 title from Tesla;

Mexico - Nissan Leaf wins again, in a falling market;

UAE - Tesla turf;

South Africa - BMW are the only ones doing something here;

Colombia - Fast growth is starting to move the needle (0.3% share), Renault Twizy is a popular choice, same as the BMW i3;

Taiwan - Stagnating market (less than 200 units), this time the local Luxgen LCS EV won #1;

India - Considering the size of the market, the 2.000 units registered could be considered symbolic. Tata and Mahindra are the only ones on the market, with compliance vehicles;

Thailand - Less than 1.000 units, the 2018 trophy was still for BMW, but Hyundai should steal the 2019 title.

China December 2018

8% PEV Share!

After a 3 months streak of record-breaking months, plugins in December just kept on pushing forward, by registering over 180,000 units, making it the 4^th record month in a row(!), growing 70% YoY, with the 2018 sales ending north of the 1 million units mark. In one year. And to think that 2017 was the first year that plugins reached 1 million sales, GLOBALLY. Woah.

With all this continued growth, and the recent decline of the mainstream market (-16% in December), the PEV share hit yet another all-time best, ending the month with 8% share, while the 2018 share ended at a record 4.2% share, double the share of 2017 (2.1%), with sales expected to continue growing fast throughout 2019, in a year we should be talking about 8% in 2019, and some 15% in December…Amazing isn’t it?

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, and most foreign OEMs only now are starting to tackle the current seismic changes, dragged into electrification by the upcoming PEV quotas, resulting in the foreign brands total share still being stuck at 6%.

Of this (small) cake, 2% belong to BMW, the Best-Selling foreign brand, 1% to Tesla and 1% to Nissan, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In December, the headlining news was the BAIC EU-Series becoming the Best Seller of the Month, with an amazing 12,561 units, being only the second model to surpass 10,000 units in one month in China, after its smaller sibling EC-Series having opened the gates last year.

Here’s November Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

 

#1 – BAIC EU-Series: Beijing Auto’s electric sedan has been evolving throughout the years and now, thanks to a modern design and some solid specs (215 hp; 420 kms / 260 mi NEDC range; $32,500), it is finally making an impact on the Chinese plug-in market, having registered a record 12,561 units last month, almost as much as it sold during the whole 2017 year. It seems BAIC found a second Best Seller in its stable, question is how it will deal with it, will it give priority to the most expensive and profitable EU-Series over the EC-Series?

#2 – BAIC EC-Series: After the record 20,648 units of October, BAIC’s small EV returned has been dropping the number of registrations, with only 8,407 units being registered in the last month of the year, losing the #1 position in December to its sedan sibling EU-Series. Considering the EC-Series still has a waiting list, it seems the maker is prioritizing the sedan production over its smaller EV. The revised design and improved specs (new 30 kWh battery) will allow the EC-Series to remain a popular choice in the Chinese Mega-Cities, also helped by a competitive price ($25,000, before subsidies).

#3 – BYD e5: BYD’s bread and butter electric sedan, continues to profit from the recent redesign, having registered a record 8,234 units in December, thanks to an attractive design (finally!) and strong specs (61 kWh, 405 kms / 252 mi range NEDC), for a competitive price (USD 32,500). Expect this model to continue shining in 2019, now that the Qin has become a more upscale model, leaving more space between both.

#4 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s new Baby Crossover was destined for success, and with a record 8,021 deliveries in December, BYD’s new baby is living up to expectations. Will the Yuan be the fiercest competitor in 2019 to the all-conquering BAIC EC-Series? With a thousands-long waiting list, demand is no problem, I guess it will depend more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in large volumes (The Tang/Song/Qin are more profitable…), than actual demand, sitting on a sparsely populated part of the market (small BEV crossovers), and with unrivalled specs (42 kWh battery, 305 kms/190 mi NEDC range, 174 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), BYD might have found in this new model its star player, crowning what it is already a strong lineup.

#5 – BAIC EX-Series: The third musketeer of BAIC’s latest generation of star players, the EX-Series Crossover registered a record 6,844 registrations in December. Sales should continue strong for BAIC’s model, possibly becoming the third model in the brand lineup to cross the 10,000 units/month mark. As for the EX Series specs, the battery has 62 kWh, originating an interesting 415 kms (259 mi) NEDC range, while on the power department, there’s a decent 215 hp to pull it, all for $41,000.

NIO ES8

2018 ranking

If the 2018 winner wasn’t surprising, with the BAIC EC-Series winning its Second Models trophy with months in advance, below it there were plenty of models shakin’n shining, the biggest of all being the BAIC EU-Series shooting seven spots to…#7, thanks to the aforementioned 12,561 units, with another hot model joining the Top 10 in the last month of the year, as the BYD Yuan EV jumped two positions, to #9, making 5(!) BYD’s in the Top 10. Talk about a strong lineup…

Below the Top 10, there were also some significant changes in the ranking, with the BAIC EX-Series climbing to #11, while the SAIC Baojun E100 was up one spot, to #16, and the Dongfeng Junfeng Skio reached #18, thus jumping two positions.

In such a fast-growing market, it has become the norm that models break their all-time highs all the time, as of this Top 20 ranking, 8 have beaten their personal best last month, 5 of them either belonging to BYD or BAIC.   

Outside the Top 20, there’s much to talk about, the BMW 530e ended the year as the Best-Selling Foreign model, with 13,493 units, while ending the year also as the Best Seller in the Premium Class.

But in December the BMW model lost the month Premium Best Seller was the Nio ES8, that thanks to 3,318 deliveries (11,348 in 2018), it has beaten all the foreign competition.

Will Nio be able to do the same during 2019?

With the new ES6 midsize SUV said to start deliveries by mid-2019, the Chinese startup is making the best use of the short time it has to grow and win scale, so let’s wait and see.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (20%) was a comfortable winner, winning its 5^th title in a row, while the runner-up BAIC (15%), is finally profiting from a stronger lineup, now that isn’t so dependent from one key player, which could give a chance to run head to head with BYD in 2019.

In Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (7%) managed to resist Chery (6%) retaining the same medal won in 2017.

China November 2018

BYD Tang: Getting easier on the eye every passing day…

6,3% PEV Share!

After two record-breaking months (September with 105k and October, 120k), plugins in November just kept on pushing forward, by registering over 140,000 units, up 59% YoY, with the previous record being beaten by a significant margin (18%).

If we extrapolate December, sales could peak at some 155,000 units, with the 2018 sales surpassing the 1 million units mark. In one year. And to think that 2017 was the first year that plugins reached 1 million sales, GLOBALLY. Woah.

With all this continued growth, and the recent decline of the mainstream market (-14% in November), the PEV share hit another all-time best, ending the month with 6.3%, while the 2018 share rose to 3.8% share, a new record and well above the 2.1% of 2017, with sales expected to continue growing until December, the 2018 PEV share could end North of 4%, with the December possibly reaching surpassing 7%.

If this growth rate continues throughout 2019, in a year from now we should be talking about shares above 10%, and that’s when things start to get interesting…

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, and most foreign OEMs only now are starting to tackle the current seismic changes, dragged into electrification by the upcoming PEV quotas, resulting in the foreign brands total share still being stuck at 6%.

Of this (small) cake, 2% belong to BMW, the Best-Selling foreign brand, and 2% to Tesla, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In November, the headlining news were the BYD Dynamic Duo (Tang and Yuan) continued Rise and Rise, with the first nameplate joining the Top 10.

Here’s November Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

 

#1 – BAIC EC-Series: After the record 20,648 units of October, BAIC’s small EV returned to more normal performances, with 14,205 units being delivered last month. With almost twice as much registrations as the #2 BYD Qin in 2018, the EC-Series continues to disrupt the Chinese market, replicating what the Tesla Model 3 is doing in the USA. The revised design and improved specs (new 30 kWh battery) allowed the EC-Series to remain a popular choice in the Chinese Mega-Cities, also helped by a competitive price ($25,000, before subsidies).

 

#2 – BYD Tang PHEV: After seven months on the market, the second-generation Tang continues to expand sales, registering a record 6,405 registrations. Sales should continue strong for BYD’s successful flagship, and new record sales could still be achieved in the future, although the upcoming BEV Tang could steal sales from it. As for the current Tang PHEV specs, BYD’s Sports SUV saw the battery grow to 24 kWh, originating an increased 100 kms range / 62 mi NEDC (around 70 kms / 44 mi real world), while on the power department, things stayed the same, with some 500 hp and 0-100 kms/h in less than 5 secs. All for CNY 279,800 / $40,816.

 

#3 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s new Baby Crossover was destined for success, and with a record 6,188 deliveries in November, BYD’s new baby is living up to expectations. Will the Yuan be the fiercest competitor in 2019 to the all-conquering BAIC EC-Series? With a 40,000 waiting list, demand is no problem, I guess it will depend more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in large volumes (The Tang is more profitable…), than actual demand, sitting on a sparsely populated part of the market (small BEV crossovers), and with unrivalled specs (42 kWh battery, 305 kms/190 mi NEDC range, 174 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), BYD might have found in this new model its star player, crowning what it is already a strong lineup.

 

#4 – BYD e5: BYD’s bread and butter electric sedan, a favorite among taxi-drivers, registered a record 5,573 units in November, and yet, this performance was overshadowed by the stars Tang and Yuan. This Andre Iguodala (Who?) of the BYD lineup, has some strong specs (61 kWh, 405 kms range NEDC, 218 hp), for a competitive price (CNY 220,650 / USD 34,600). Unfortunately, the basic design makes it a bit of an unsung hero in the BYD stable, next to the Tangs, Qins, Songs and Yuans...

 

#5 – Baojun E100: Shanghai Auto and General Motors had high hopes for their tiny two-seater, and despite an irregular career, it is finally starting to make an impact on the Chinese plug-in market, having registered 5,155 units last month, a year best. With an updated range in 2018 (250 kms NEDC), thanks to a new 24 kWh battery, its price (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, is quite alluring, especially considering its modern design and features.

Junfeng Skio: Dongfeng's "EC-Series"

2018 ranking

In a record month, there were plenty of models shining, besides the aforementioned records mentioned in the Top 5 Sellers, the #19 Hawtai xEV compact SUV registered a record 3,257 units, while the #20 Dongfeng Junfeng Skio, a new face in this Top 20, scored 4,142 units, not only a new record for Dongfeng’s subcompact car, but also for any of the maker EV nameplates.

There were also some significant changes in the ranking, the Chery eQ climbed to #5, while BYD’s star models, the Tang and Yuan, continue their never ending rise, with the midsize SUV jumping three positions, to #8, signaling the Tang return to the Top 10, while the subcompact electric crossover Yuan did even better, shooting up four spots, to #11, while it prepares itself to join the Top 10 in December, making 5(!) BYD’s in the Top 10...

That’s what’s impressive about BYD, unlike others, that are dependent from their star player performance (see LeBron James at the Cavs), BYD has a constellation in its lineup, replicating the success formula of the Golden State Warriors in the EV universe. And with looong waiting lists, the Yuan alone has 40,000 reservations, the 400,000 units target that the company has for 2019 seems quite feasible.   

Outside the Top 20, there’s much to talk about, the BMW 530e continues to amaze, having scored yet another record performance, with 2,649 units, with the German sedan being not only the bestselling plugin of its category, but also the best performing foreign model, in #22.

But in November the BMW model had a tough race for the Best-Selling Foreign Model title, as the Nissan Sylphy EV started to fire on all cylinders charge up at full speed, with 2,400 units being registered, so December should be an entertaining race between both models, unless…

Unless the recently arrived Volkswagens steal the show.

The midsize VW Passat PHEV sedan landed with a bang, scoring 1,513 units in its debut month, the best arrival for a foreign nameplate ever, while the compact SUV Tiguan PHEV also scored a not negligible 618 units, so November signaled Volkswagen’s real arrival to this market, and considering the German brand is the most popular maker in the country, expect it to be a major player soon.

Elsewhere, the Nio ES8 continues with its gradual ramp up (3,089 registrations last month), being once again the Best-Selling Luxury SUV last month, allowing the new startup SUV to remove the Tesla Model X from the yearly category leadership.

With the new ES6 midsize SUV said to start deliveries by mid-2019, the Chinese startup is making the best use of the short time it has to grow and win scale, before the Big Boys land with their dedicated BEVs.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (20%) is a comfortable leader, thanks to the new Tang and Yuan, while the runner-up BAIC (15%), is finally profiting from the EC-Series sales infusion to retain share, and in Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (7%) had a horrible month, with only 6,700 deliveries, its worst result since February, allowing Chery (6% share) to come closer, now with hopes to reach the podium, which would be the first time that Chery would win a medal since 2014.

China October 2018

20,000 BAIC EC-Series in another record month

After a record-breaking September (104,900 units), one would think that in October the market would take some time to breathe, but that wasn’t the case, with close to 120,000 registrations last month, up 85% YoY, the previous record was beaten by a significant margin (14%).

If we extrapolate this growth rate until the end of the year, we would have December peaking at some 155,000 units and the 2018 sales reaching 1 million units. In one year. And to think that 2017 was the first year that plugins reached 1 million sales, GLOBALLY. Woah.

With all this continued growth, the PEV share hit another all-time best, ending the month with 5.8%, while the 2018 share rose to 3.6% share, a new record and well above the 2.1% of 2017, with sales expected to continue growing until December, the 2018 PEV share could end North 4%, with December possibly reaching 7%.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact that it is still a protected market and most foreign OEMs still don’t have a real plan to tackle these seismic changes, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled next year, foreign brands are starting to put an effort, although their share is still stuck at 6%.

Of this (small) cake, 2% belong to BMW, the new Best-Selling foreign brand, and 2% to Tesla, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In October, the headlining news were the BAIC EC-Series surging to over 20,000 units, beating everyone’s expectations, while stealing the month top spot from BYD’s Dynamic Duo (Tang and Yuan).

Here’s October Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

 

#1 – BAIC EC-Series: The little EV is back with a vengeance, with the EC-Series registering a record 20,648 units last month, up 83% YoY, winning its first Best Seller trophy since May. Having beaten the previous all-time best (15,719 units, last November) by a sizeable margin, BAIC’s EV continues to disrupt the Chinese market, reaching a Top 20 position in the mainstream ranking, for the first time. The revised design and improved specs (new 30 kWh battery) allowed the EC-Series to remain a popular choice in the Chinese Mega-Cities, also helped by a competitive price ($25,000, before subsidies).

 

#2 – BYD Tang PHEV: After six months on the market, the second-generation Tang seems to have found its cruise-speed sales rate, at around 6,000 units/month, registering a record 6,037 registrations. Sales should continue strong for BYD’s successful flagship, and new record sales could still be achieved this year, at least until the BEV version of the Tang lands. As for the current Tang PHEV specs, BYD’s Sports SUV saw the battery grow to 24 kWh, originating an increased 100 kms range / 62 mi NEDC (around 70 kms / 44 mi real world), while on the power department, things stayed the same, with some 500 hp and 0-100 kms/h in less than 5 secs. All for CNY 279,800 / $40,816.

 

#3 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s new Baby Crossover was destined for success, and with a record 5,803 deliveries in October in its fifth month on the market, BYD’s new baby is living up to expectations. Will the Yuan be the fiercest competitor next year to the all-conquering BAIC EC-Series? I guess it will depend more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in volume, than actual demand, sitting on the vortex of the two fastest selling segments (Compact Crossovers and EVs), and with unrivalled specs (42 kWh battery, 305 kms/190 mi NEDC range, 174 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), BYD might have found in this new model its star player, crowning what it is already a strong lineup.

 

#4 – Hawtai EV160: The automaker bread and butter city EV narrowly escaped the subsidies cut early this Summer, by presenting 5 kms more range (155 kms NEDC) than the subsidy minimum (150 kms), thanks to a 21kWh battery, and sales have reflected this, with sales benefitting from the reduced competition, as the little EV hit a record 5,736 units in October. With basic specs (41hp lawnmower motor…) and design, Hawtai bets on a bargain-basement price (CNY 102,800 / $14,812), in order to allure car-sharing and other fleet buying companies.

 

#5 – Chery eQ: Chery was one of the Chinese brands to bet early in plug-ins, having won the models title three times in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), with its tiny QQ3 EV, now the automaker is trying to regain relevance with the eQ, the spiritual (and material) successor to the QQ3, having registered 5,547 units in last month (new year best), allowing it to collect another Top 5 position. A vehicle marketed to city dwellers, for USD 24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city EV, with the 22.3kWh battery providing just enough range (200 kms / 125 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of the urban jungle (And the subsidies requirements).

 

2018 ranking

In a record month, there were plenty of changes, the three most important being the BYD e5 climbing to #4, thanks to a record 4,460 units, the Chery eQ climbing to #6, while the rise and rise of the Hawtai EV160 continues, with the little EV jumping 2 spots to #8.

Hawtai EVs are a hot item right now, not only the EV160 hit a record performance (5,736 units) last month, but the #20 xEV compact crossover also performed a record result (2,245 units), confirming the good moment of the brand, that is becoming a sort of Dark Horse, while everyone has its eyes focused on BYD, BAIC, SAIC and Geely, Hawtai does its job off the radar and in October it registered 9,000 units, making it the Third Best Selling EV brand. Will we see it go after BYD and BAIC soon?

BYD’s new babies continue on their way to the Top 10, with the Tang PHEV jumping 3 spots to #11, while its smaller sibling, the Yuan EV, is now #15. If the first model has its eyes on #8 or #9 spot, the second is doing its best to reach #10, which would make 5(!) BYD’s in the Top 10...

Another model shining last month was the BAIC EU-Series, that rose 2 positions, to #13.

Outside the Top 20, a lot is going on, on the large sedan class, the BMW 530e registered 2,164 units, with the German sedan being not only the bestselling plugin of its category, but also the best performing foreign model, in #22.

The Nio ES8 continues with the gradual production ramp up (2,060 registrations last month) and was once again the Best-Selling Luxury SUV last month, with the Tesla Model X delivering in the low hundreds, the new startup model still has a shot at removing Tesla from the yearly category leadership, as it is now less than 2,000 units behind the American Sports-SUV.

Another model on the rise is the GAC Trumpchi GE3, that with 1,592 units last month, had its best month in its 17 months career. Is GAC finally stepping up production?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (20%, up 1%) is a comfortable leader, thanks to the new Tang and Yuan, while the runner-up BAIC (15%, up 2%), is finally profiting from the EC-Series sales infusion to recover share, and in Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (11%) holds the last place of the podium, with a significant advantage over the #4, Chery (6% share).