Top 10 EV Countries - 2019 Edition

Article courtesy of Assaf Oron:

Welcome to my sixth annual Top Countries list! The disclaimer, same as in last 2 years:

1. The score is multi-faceted rather than representing solely consumer sales, and
2. This is a global challenge, to which different countries can contribute in different ways, and the big picture must be in view. Advantage goes to countries that contributes in multiple ways rather than only one way.

The lion’s share of credit for source data goes as usual, to Jose Pontes and his EV Sales Blog. The EU-sanctioned eafo.eu also helped a lot; guess who runs that site? (yup, the very same Jose). Some data arrives from insideevs.com, in particular its excellent US EV sales report card, and some from my own online sleuthing. Some numbers and percentages in Europe may look different from what you see elsewhere, because I’ve added light-commercial vehicle sales to numerator and denominator, to make the comparison with North America equitable – and also due to additional context-driven tweaks.

Overview: Calm before the Storms

Aside from a few notable exceptions, in 2019 the global EV scene was in somewhat of a holding pattern. Global sales were up ~10% to 2.2 million, while global EV share rose more strongly from 2.1% to 2.5%, thanks to falling ICE sales. Many Top 10 residents retained the same spot, and none moved more than 2-3 spots. Sales in the US and Japan actually dropped, but European sales saved the day increasing >40% in both volume and market share. Four European countries ended the year with double-digit EV share. 

The Tesla Model 3, the first EV selling in six figures in one year (2018), fully doubled its annual sales in 2019 to just over 300k, reaching the general-market major leagues. And demand is still brisk. Meanwhile, China’s BAIC EU-Series midsize became the second EV to crash the six-figure club with 111k sales in 2019.

Looking ahead, the storms are several… Right now,  2020 seems bleak due to Covid-19. It’s already trashing EV sales in #1 China, and has severely disrupted supply chains to rising Korean EV maker Hyundai-Kia. Europe, the hotspot of 2019’s sales increase, is getting hit hard with the virus now, although the worst-hit country there as of early March (Italy) is also the worst EV country in Western Europe anyway. Of course, it’s too early to tell how the year will end. The overall EV industry and market seem far more robust now, and the crisis, aside from temporarily lowering economic activity and global emissions, might end up accelerating the EV transition in the long run. Silver lining, right?

The other storms are more positive: world’s largest automaker VW is slated to finally roll out midmarket BEVs under both VW and Skoda brands, and Peugeot is already selling its electric 208 like hotcakes in France since January; still a distant second to a new long-range Renault Zoe which started 2020 at #3 in the overall charts there. Other legacy automakers are expected to ramp up as well. And Tesla plans to start ramping the Model Y this year, armed with Model 3 experience and eating the popular SUV/crossover segment.

To business: I slightly tweaked the scoring system to make it a tad less generous and reduce some distortions. Will try to keep it the same in 2020. Like in recent years the biggest gaps are between #1, 2 and 3, with the latter heading a rather dense middle pack. So winning the bronze is like winning the lottery! And this year it is a new face there.

Ok let’s go. 2018’s place is in parentheses.

10^th Place (tie-10^th): Germany, 44 points. Claim to fame: solid sales rise and production numbers are offset by lower starting point, unimpressive product lineup, and no action on buses and batteries.

German EV production rose ~50% to 300k, but much of this are minimal PHEVs from BMW. While a 25km PHEV version of a gas-guzzler is better than the original, one should expect more from a brand known for innovation and daring. Germany has yet to launch any mass-market 200-mile EV, something that China, the US, Korea, Japan, France, and even the UK (produced in Austria) have been doing, some for quite a few years. German action on electric buses is still nonexistent (only 60 deployed, nearly none produced), and while battery-plant plans by German automakers are ongoing, nothing there yet.

On the plus side, the 125-mile eGolf had a record year on what is likely its last full year on the market, returning to the global top 20 after a long absence. And domestic consumers drove a 46% rise to a 2.9% market share, dragging Germany’s score up just enough keep it in the Top 10. It was the first time a European country saw 100k EV sales in a year.

9^th Place: France (12^th), 45 points. Claim to fame: a jump in electric buses with moderate rise everywhere else and a promising outlook; is this the start of a comeback run?

France started the decade as a leading power in a very narrow global EV scene. Then it logged steady yet very gradual improvements, and was hop-skipped by the faster rise of many other countries. Eventually, in 2018 France dropped off the Top 10. Last year it clawed its way back: electric bus deployments jumped from almost nothing to nearly 200, 3^rd in Europe by volume. France is also the longtime leader in light-commercial EV deployment (~8k in 2019), with its domestic Kangoo ZE beating the Barcelona-produced Nissan eNV-200 for the sub-segment’s #1 spot with a record 10k global sales.

French EV sales saw a typical 24% rise from 2.1% to 2.6% market share, dominated as always by the ever-improving Zoe. But if January 2020 is indicative, we may be in for a shock surprise this year, because France just logged an 11% EV market share in January with Zoe launching a 200-mile version and Peugeot-Citroen finally gearing into action. Things are looking up again for France… as long as Covid-19 doesn’t destroy everything.

7^th Place - tie: The United Kingdom and Iceland (7^th and 8^th), 46 points. Claim to fame: Iceland crosses 20% market share, while UK inches toward 3% despite Brexit.

Sparsely-populated Iceland retained its world-second-best EV share position, rising from 17% to 22%. The EV mix has become less PHEV-heavy than before (42% BEV). The EV score is a combination of volume and share of sales and production, plus other aspects, so a teeny-population country like Iceland needs to score really high on market share to be in the Top 10. Well, Iceland meets the challenge year after year, reminding North Americans in places like Minnesota and Manitoba that EVs can do just fine in cold, sparsely populated regions, and also that it is possible to build a renewable grid in such conditions. So don’t turn your nose up at Iceland.

The UK landed its first Top 10 spot in 2018, and clung to it last year, market share rising from 2.3% to 2.9% and becoming less PHEV-heavy (are you sensing a pattern here? It’s all about European emissions regulation). Production numbers suffered a bit from lower Leaf sales, and bus action was relatively flat (#4 in Europe by volume). But LEVC sold 2500 electric taxis! Good show! Looking ahead, while Brexit may be yet another storm on the EV horizon, overall the Johnson government appears committed to climate action in general and to EVs in particular. Hope they walk the walk, and don’t trip up their entire economy over bungled trade talks.

6^th Place: South Korea (4^th),  49 points. Claim to fame: a somewhat disappointing plain-vanilla year.

Korean automakers increased their EV output, from 95k to 130k, a respectable increase but not as dramatic as 2018. Consumers inched forward from 1.75% to 1.9% share. If the Korean economy survives Covid-19 (the poor residents of Daegu!), or at least EVs are not disproportionately hurt, then we might see a greater increase in 2020 thanks to stronger incentives.  Korea also continues to be a dominant EV battery supplier to Western automakers, and might even get some Tesla action as the latter seeks to diversify its sources.

5^th place: the United States (3^rd), 52 points. Claim to fame: Tesla and Bust.

In 2018 the Model 3’s ramp buoyed US EV sales to near-doubling, masking a drop across all other models. In 2019 the Model 3 doubled its own deliveries, but half of that went overseas, mostly to Europe. Meanwhile GM killed its Volt in March and seemingly reduced Bolt production as well, Honda and Toyota throttled their US-bound PHEV shipments, and overall EV sales actually dropped from 361k to just under 330k, falling back below 2% market share, lower than the global average.

Just like in 2018, if you split the US into Trump’s favorite punching bag California, and all other 49 states combined, then “CA Country” would become the world’s #2 EV nation with 7.7% EV sales share and relatively massive 100% EV production, while all the rest would drop way below the Top 10, barely over 1% sales and 0.5% production. The tussle between CARB and the current “Zombie EPA”, with the latter claiming that better fuel efficiency is dangerous for you and willing to go to court against the former’s attempt to clean up its fleet, and with 2 of the US Big 3 siding with the Zombies – does not instill confidence that EV culture in the US exists beyond a few greenie enclaves and a Tesla love/hate fetish.

The excuse that this is just a few rogue officials appointed by Trump falls flat. The automakers could have sided with CARB. The press and public could have shamed the Administration and its political party to change their EV stance, as did happen on other topics. But generally, EVs and a cleaner US fleet are not on many Americans’ priority list right now. Culture-wise, the strongest new ray of light was the decision by Virginia’s publicly-owned school bus fleet to go electric. That will take time though.

4^th Place: Sweden (4^th),  53 points. Claim to fame: market share finally into double-digits!

Similarly to France, Sweden is a fairly steady performer with few surprises, although with substantially higher market share, going from 7.2% to 10.2% and becoming less PHEV-dominated. We’re still waiting on Volvo to produce some BEVs and not only PHEVs, though. This is likely to happen in 2020 in both the car and bus segments. Volvo did deliver a few e-buses in 2019. By the way, Sweden started 2020 with EV share all the way up to 30% territory.

3^rd Place: The Netherlands (5th), 54 points. Claim to fame: our wildest swinger continues its BEV makeover and joins the double-digit club, while leading the Euro bus scene.

In 2015 the Netherlands sported the world’s #2 EV market share nearing 10%, on an almost pure PHEV “diet” due to warped incentive structure. Once de-warped, market share dropped to barely 2% in 2016. Since then the country’s EV culture has reinvented itself, and in 2019 market share touched 13%, nearly all BEVs. There were still some tax shenanigans at play: December alone saw 23k EV sales (54% market share), 12k of them Model 3 which was an all-time record for any car. This was driven at least in part by tax increases kicking in January 1 2020; although January EV sales were not as bad as feared.

Meanwhile, electric bus action more than doubled to a continent-leading 375 new deployments, over 1.5 times more than #2 Norway. Recall that the Netherlands only has Europe’s 11^th largest population (6^th largest in Western Europe). This bus action is anchored by domestic maker VDL, responsible for nearly 500 out of the country’s cumulative 800 e-buses, which in turn account for 15% of the country’s transit bus fleet. I strongly value the electrification of heavier work vehicles in general and of buses in particular, so this performance provides just enough juice to win the Netherlands its first, well-deserved medal. I hope I don’t eat my own words next year.

2^nd place: Norway (2^nd), 63 points. Claim to fame: perennial silver medalist crosses 50% on passenger cars, but still just shy overall. Nice bus action though.

Norway’s passenger EV sales gobbled up 56% of the market total, but with light-commercial included it drops to 45%. Quite likely to finally cross 50% in 2020, since Norwegians’ EV love is a feature not a temporary bug. Tesla Model 3 landed here too with a bang, logging nearly 16k sales which might be an all-time annual record for any car.

Meanwhile, action on other EV fronts finally materialized, with new e-bus deployments jumping from 40 to 230, which if my google skills are correct might be >20% market share for the year. Hopefully that’s an irreversible trend, and with Norway there are good reasons for hope.

1^st place: China (1^st), 73 points. Claim to fame: another year, another gold – but incentive-change madness and Covid-19 pain expose how precarious all this still is.

2019 was a tale of two half-years. In the first half, EV sales were cruising along at the breakneck growth rate we’ve come to expect from China (630k sales and 6.3% market share, vs. 370k and 3% share in the first half of 2018). But then, just like in 2017 and 2018, new incentive reductions kicked in, after automakers had already scrambled and upped their games following the first two rounds.

Starting late June, EVs with range below 250km NEDC (~160km/100mi EPA) lost incentives completely, and the rest saw their incentives halved. Previous incentives cuts jittered the market for a couple months before a new surge. This time, the effect lasted through the end of the year: less than 490k EV sold in July-December vs. nearly 740k in July-December 2018. For the entire year China managed to edge 6% ahead of 2018 by volume, faring relatively better on market share (5.5% vs. 4.2% in 2018) thanks to a sharp drop in the ICE market. But the momentum has evaporated.

Governments have an important role to play in supporting the EV revolution. But when governments make vindictive and irrationally anti-scientific decisions on EVs (the current situation in the US), or when an authoritarian system allows governments to play with rules and time scales that are too harsh for the industry to adapt to (that would be China), they might cause substantial damage. On the merits, as well, I cannot understand what’s wrong with continuing to subsidize Chinese city EVs with ~80 miles of range. Chinese families are small (originally by government fiat, and now the government seems unable to reverse the trend). A city car fits the budget of more households, takes up less space and wastes less material resources. Here in the US, our household did just fine with a (larger) 80-mile EV as our only car from 2015 through mid-2017, needing to rent an ICE car only twice. So what’s the rush to tighten the purse strings and raise the bar every year? Does the Chinese government want more EVs or not?

China’s electric bus scene, too, wasn’t as bright as before, seeing the second straight annual drop, this time to ~70k domestic deliveries (14% market share), the lowest number since 2015. Here too an incentives cut precipitated the drop. Even with the drop, China is still light-years ahead of everyone else, and essentially defines this segment. A good chunk (possibly the majority) of the few thousand e-buses delivered around the rest of the world combined, were also made in China or by Chinese companies.

China’s dominance on e-buses and its membership in the East Asian battery triumvirate (with Korea and Japan) has guaranteed it another clear #1, despite a relatively lackluster 2019. However, right now when EV sales might have recovered, the perfect storm of Covid-19 has hit. January EV sales dropped 50%, and early reports on February talked about 90+% drops. To make matters worse, Wuhan is an automotive industry hub. We might see China dethroned in 2020 for very tragic reasons.

Wrap-up and Tidbits

• For the first time, Japan is off the list with 39 points. Unlike France, which saw a similar setback in 2018 but whose fundamentals have remained strong and is back on the upswing, Japan’s EV story has been an almost-continuous slide and disappointment. Two of its Big 3 are still hedging on EVs, at best (Honda did sign the CARB pact that is now in court vs. the EPA and other automakers, but still offers no substantial BEV on the market). And whether Carlos Ghosn did or didn’t steal money, his November 2018 arrest and ouster from Nissan brought in successors who don’t seem to give a hoot about EVs. With Ghosn in 2018, the new 150-mile Leaf broke the Leaf sales record. In 2019 with the long-awaited 215-mile Leaf, and the 150-mile version also available, Leaf sales were actually down ~20% despite its main market (Europe) showing strong EV demand. It isn’t the car’s specs – see above how well the 125-mile eGolf and the 170-mile Zoe have done! -  it’s lack of leadership at Nissan. Meanwhile consumers in Japan’s strongly sheltered auto market have few choices and little appetite, and the EV share fell below 1%. Only battery production keeps Japan anywhere near the Top 10.
• Another Top 10 dropout, having graced the list for 3 years, is Ukraine, most of whose EVs arrive as used imports. Overall EV import volume (new+used) increased moderately, but in a wildly fluctuating auto market the “denominator” of overall used-import car sales tripled from 2018. Meanwhile I found the numbers for another market dominated by used imports: New Zealand, a country where such statistics are nicely and readily found on a government website. The EV share there was 2.3%, not nearly enough to make the Top 10 on sales alone.
• Austria narrowly missed the Top 10 with 43 points. Austria (3.1% share, almost all BEVs) sets itself apart from a cluster of European countries with healthy increases and 3%-7% EV share (Portugal, Switzerland, Ireland, Denmark, Finland), by being the country where the Jaguar i-Pace is made. The Graz factory is not a Jaguar assembly plant, but rather an independent “foundry”.

Here’s a table showing each year’s ranking. Note that 2014 had only 6 countries, and 2015 seven. Back then I didn’t think there were 10 countries that merited being in a “Top” list yet.

Place	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
1	USA/Norway*	China	China	China	China	China
2		Norway	Norway	Norway	Norway	Norway
3	China	USA	Sweden	USA/Sweden	USA	Netherlands
4	Japan	Netherlands	Iceland		Korea	Sweden
5	France/Germany	France	Ukraine	Korea/Japan	Sweden	USA
6		Japan	USA		Netherlands	Korea
7	---	Korea	Korea/Japan	Iceland	UK	UK/Iceland
8	---	---		Germany	Iceland
9	---	---	France	Ukraine	Japan	France
10	---	---	Netherlands	France	Germany/Ukraine	Germany

*Norway received a tie for the 2014 gold only retroactively (around the same time that Sochi 2014 medals were being moved retroactively hither and thither).

China January 2020

 

Tesla Model 3 shines in disrupted market

After the December sales peak, January signaled the expected hangover, but with some 49,000 passenger PEVs, the numbers were worse than expected, as sales fell 50% YoY. 

While it is true that January had fewer selling days, because the Chinese New Year this time happened in that month, and the Corona Vírus could have started to make itself felt in the second half of the month, the fact is that both events also hit the regular automotive market, and yet the overall market saw its registrations drop just 22%.

As a consequence of this, the PEV share started the year at 3.2% (2.3% BEV), a step below from the 5.5% of 2019, but we hope that after all the doom and gloom currently happening here, the second half of the year witnesses the return to growth in China.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented roughly 64% of all PEVs registered, a significant drop, especially considering that in 2019 they had around 85% of the market.

So, as it wasn’t enough for local OEMs the fact that plugin sales were dropping by half, they also saw their grip on the native market being lost, in favor of foreign brands, like Tesla and others… 

In January, plug-in hybrids better less worse (-28% YoY) than pure electric models (-56%), allowing them to recover some relevance in the market, as they represented 29% of sales, up 9% regarding 2019.

Proving that foreign models are weathering the storm better than local brands, for the first time we have three foreigners in the Top 5, and the Tesla Model 3 even managed to win the January Best Seller trophy, a first for a foreign model in China.

Here’s January Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Tesla Model 3

The poster-child for electric mobility delivered 3,183 units, (including 578 imports), winning its first monthly Best Sellers title, a first for any foreign model here. And while it’s not (yet) the disruptive result that many expect from the Tesla sedan, let’s remember it was still the first full month of the Made-in-China Model 3, so the sporty silhouette of the Model 3 should become a common sighting in Chinese streets soon.

#2 – SAIC Roewe Ei5

This model was something of a shot in a dark for the Shanghai Auto, as station wagons aren’t common in China, but it has paid off, as the nameplate became the 2^nd best selling plugin of SAIC’s stable last year, and now in 2020 the compact wagon came close to win its first monthly Best Seller award, losing only to the Tesla midsizer by 115 units. Still, with 3,068 units, it was its best performance since June or, as it now starting to be known, BSC (Before the Subsidies Change). Based on the GM platform Delta II (think Chevrolet Cruze, Opel Astra, or the Buick Velite 6 sibling), the Chinese wagon profits from a quality design and unique body, and SAIC is now said to be preparing its introduction in Europe later in the year, as an MG, where I am sure many wagon-lovers will buy it.

#3 – BMW 530Le

The rise and rise of BMW’s luxury sedan in China is impressive in more than one way, first the steady increase in demand, regardless of the surrounding depressing environment, and second, the full-size sedan is running in the top positions with much cheaper models, as the 2^nd best selling full-size model (Li Xiang One) had a third of its sales. Winning its first podium position last month (and for the first time we have two foreigners in the Podium), with 3,000 units, the Bimmer sedan continues to thrive, even without access to subsidies (then again, let’s face it, subsidies for cars at this price level don’t really make that much of a difference, the owners just use the money for some nicer alloys or optional creature comforts…), so the undisputed leader in the Luxury category should continue selling around 3,000 units per month, which is well above its direct competitors, that are happy to reach 1,000 units in one month.

#4 – GAC Aion S

Things continue to go well for the Aion S, with the sleek sedan securing another Top 5 presence, thanks to 2,648 units. And before the GAC fans out there (“Everybody from Guangzhou, put your hands up, put your hands up…”), mention the Toyota iA5, I should remember y’all that if we count the badge-engineered Toyota sedan into the Aion S tally, it is after all, just an “S” with a Toyota badge, then GAC’s Model 3-inspired sedan would have been January’s Best Seller. 

#5 – VW Passat PHEV

First of all, a disclosure: this moniker includes two different plugin hybrid models, both named “Passat”. Confused? Then, let’s explain, the Made-in-China Passat, which is based, but not the same, of the larger US-made VW Passat, has a PHEV version that makes up for most of sales of the moniker. But Volkswagen also imports direcly from Germany to China the slightly smaller VW Passat GTE, that Europeans are used to see in their streets, adding a few hundreds of units to the tally. Now that we have this out of the way, the German moniker had 2,217 units, confirming its role of bread and butter model for the brand, at least until the MEB-based models don’t arrive to Chinese lands.

Li Xiang One

Outside the Top 5, and even in the midst of the current dark scenery, there are a few Ray of Lights, like the good behavior of the local EV Startups, with 4 representatives in the Top 20, with the NIO ES6 jumping to #6, thanks to 1,493 units, the Li Xiang One full size SUV landing with a bang in #14 and 1,180 units, starting its career immediately as the full-size SUV leader, while the Weltmeister EX5 is #16, and the Neta N01 from Hozon surprisingly joins the Top 20, in #18.

Toyota(!) also joined the ranking, and not with one model, but two(!), although we should remember that the Toyota iA5 is a badge-engineered GAC Aion S, so…It should be counted as GAC, right? 

And by the way, if we were to add the IA5 to the Aion S tally, the GAC electric model would have been January’s Best Seller, with 3,884 units…

Anyway, the Toyota Corolla PHEV made it to the Top 20, in #19, being the fifth plugin hybrid in the ranking. 

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the current disruption is being felt, with SAIC and BYD sharing the leadership, both with 14% share (BYD is ahead by 120 units), all while Tesla and BMW (both with 7%) are chasing the new #3 GAC, with 9% share. 

Markets Roundup - December 2019

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2019:

China

* BAIC EU-Series #1 - First time winner, but in 2020 it will have more competition; 

* 1.2 million units - What a roller coaster, great first half of the year, then after the incentives change, a stark drop, with December ending with a sign of hope. And the Market Share reached 5.5%, above the share of the USA or Europe. 

USA

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Second win for the Californian, but in 2020 the Model Y lands, so...Enjoy it while you can, Model 3;

* 325.000 sales - Poor second half of the year, leading to slight drop, to 2.0% share.

Europe

* Tesla Model 2 #1 - First title for Tesla in Europe, to be repeated in 2020, but in 2021, things should become more interesting;

* 564.000 units - Sales increased the pace, with the PEV share reaching 3.6%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now owning 64% of the market. 

Japan

* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 44.000 units - What can i say, sales have (again) dropped and the PEV share has dropped to 0.8%. Disappointing.

Canada

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Canada's darling. At least until the Model y lands...

* 51.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.6%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - A new year, a new win for the Crossover, scoring another all-time record (14.000 units). The Kona EV is the leader in Korea.

* 34.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.9%. A mention to the Hyundai Nexo Fuel Cell, that registered 4,000 units, leading to a 0.2% share, being the only place FCEVs started to become common(ish).

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Tesla Model 3 lands and immediately becomes the Best Seller. PEV share jumped to 2.6% (up from 1.4% in 2018);

Israel - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was #1, market has beaten the 2018 records and reached 1.5% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Australia - Doubling sales (9,000 units), with the Tesla Model 3 stealing the show and winning the Best Seller title. The market share needle is finally starting to move (0.9% PEV share);

Brazil - Volvo XC60 PHEV was the Best Seller, in a year that things finally started to move upwards (1,500 units), although share wise, we are still rock bottom (0.1%);

Mexico - Tesla Model 3 steals the show and pulls the market up (1,400 units in total), but share wise, it is still in its infancy (0.1%);

Colombia - Fast growth is moving up the needle (0.5% share), with the BMW i3 becoming the 2019 Best Seller;

South Africa - Jaguar and Land Rover came into play and together with BMW, they are the only ones pulling the market up, allowing it to reach record heights (300 units...);

Taiwan - Tesla Model 3 disrupts the market, making it grow 5-fold, while the plugin share finally starts to move (0.4% share);

Hong Kong - Although still far from the 2017 record (4,000 units), the 2019 result (2,000 units) allowed it to come alive again and reach some 5% share;

Singapore - A record 1,400 units allowed this market to reach 1.9%, with the 2019 Best Seller being the Hyundai Kona EV; 

China December 2019

BAIC EU-Series: 2019 Best Seller in China

The light at the end of the tunnel?   

After some terrible months (-42% on November), the Chinese plugin market seems to have bottomed out, falling just 22% YoY in December, to 149,000 units, with both powertrain technologies dropping, but with BEVs faring better (only -17% YoY) than PHEVs (-45%), as the market adjusts to a new, less subsidy-dependent, reality.

A significant consequence of the subsidy changes last summer is the fall from grace of PHEVs, because despite the drops in the second half of the year, BEVs still managed to end the year with a 13% growth rate, while plugin hybrids went down by 13%...

And the trend is becoming more visible every passing month, as in December BEVs represented 86% of registrations, against the 80% average of 2019, which tells a strong message to the players in the market: “Go BEV, or Go Home”.

Interestingly, the overall automotive market also seems to be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, after 2019 (-10% YoY!) witnessing the second year on a row of sales drops, something unprecedented in the last 30 years, in December the market only dropped 1% YoY, so we could see a return to growth in 2020, which could mean even better growth perspectives for the local plugin market.

In fact, in the midst of this adverse environment, December’s PEV share reached a pretty good 6.8% share (5.8% BEV), pulling the 2019 PEV market share to its final 5.5% (4.4% for BEVs alone), which is significantly above the 2018 result (4.2%), but on the other hand, it is still well below than the 6.3% peak of last June.

Maybe we’ll get there again in the second half of 2020?

While many models saw their sales dry up, and even full brands have gone the way of the dodo, like Hawtai, new models are taking over the void, while the most expensive end of the market continues to thrive, helping foreign OEMs to increase market share, and in this particular case, Tesla was the winner, with the California-based brand taking 4% of the Chinese plugin market.

But to be fair, while as an individual brand, Tesla was the winner, with almost 43,000 units, looking at Automotive Groups as a whole, the Volkswagen Group took the trophy, with some 47,000 units.

Was this particular race (Best Selling Foreigner) in China the opening salvo for a Apple/Microsoft-like global rivalry in the foreseable years? Discuss.

In December, Beijing Auto (BAIC) had a smashing month, with the EU-Series sedan scoring 21,963 units, a new monthly record for a single model in China, while the smaller EC-Series also registered a five-digit result, its first in 2019.

But the surprise of the month was the new FAW Bestune B30 EV sedan coming out of nowhere to 8,735 units in December. Fleet deal?

Here’s last month Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – BAIC EU-Series: The electric sedan took the usual December peak to score a record performance, with the 21,963 units of last month being a new monthly high for a single model in China. In fact, if we disregard the Tesla Model 3 performances in the USA, it was the best performance ever, by any EV, anywhere. What it is the secret to its success? An attractive design and specs (215 hp, 416 kms / 260 mi NEDC, US $32,500) help, but there must be more to it, than just specs...

#2 – BAIC EC-Series: Next to the record performance of its EU-Series sibling, the 11,409 units of BAIC’s small EV might seem puny, but it was enough for a #2 position, being also the first (and only) time in 2019 that the city EV managed to score a five-digit number. Will the EC-Series recover its mojo this year?

 

#3 – FAW Bestune B30 EV: FAW’s bread and butter electric sedan was something of a underdog, with its sales paling next to the category best sellers, as an example, it had sold 3,434 units in the whole year of 2018. Then, out of the blue, the electric sedan registered a record 8,735 units in December! No doubt due to fleet deal(s), because despite an ok design, its specs (33 kWh battery, 80 kW motor) are really weak next for the category. Expect this model to continue throughout 2020 because of fleet deals (Taxis, etc), but one thing is certain: FAW, one of the leading automotive makers in China, really needs a shot in the arm, when it comes to EVs.

#4 – GAC Aion S: The rise and rise of the Aion S continues, as the sleek sedan is improving its performance every passing month, having scored yet another record, with 8,460 units, reaching the 4th place last month, its 6th Top 5 spot in a row. And if we add the 1,178 units of the badge-engineered Toyota iA5 EV, that is nothing else than a Aion S with a Toyota badge, the GAC sedan would have registered 9,638 units, which would place it in 3rd. But back to the Aion S, beyond the stylish (and aerodynamic - 0.245cd) looks, this new model bears some impressive specs: a 59 kWh CATL NCM 811 battery, 510 km / 318 mi NEDC range and Level 2 driving aids, but the real killer is the price: Around 180,000 CNY / $26,000. Before subsidies.

#5 – Baojun E-Series: With the end of subsidies for most of the small city EVs, unable to reach the minimum 250 kms range, the Baojun E-Series won the lottery, with the Shanghai Auto and General Motors offspring watching its sales jump in the past few months, winning consecutive podium positions, even if last month was only 5th, having registered 8,352 units last month. The access to the current subsidy, added to its competitive price (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes it an appealing model for car-sharing companies, as well as other kinds of fleets. 

Buick Velite 6: Now imagine this, an electric Station Wagon, being sold in Europe...

 

2019 ranking

We’ll start by celebrating the first Best Seller trophy of the BAIC EU-Series, with a new yearly record (111,047 units) as the cherry on top, with the risky bet of Beijing Auto, by switching its focus from the small EC-Series, two times Best Seller (2017 and ’18), to the larger EU-Series sedan, has payed off, it’s like BAIC was already guessing what was ahead of them…

The runner-up spot went to the BYD Yuan EV, that at a given time seemed to be a strong contender for the leadership, but then it was hit full frontal by the subsidy changes, while the opposite happened to the 3^rd placed Baojun E-Series, since the new rules, sales went up through the roof, allowing it to jump from obscurity into the podium…Which in turn, was the first podium for a SAIC model since 2012, when the small Roewe E50 was #3, with 238 units…Yeah, that many.

There were plenty of last-minute position changes, with the Roewe Ei5 recovering some positions and ending the year in 7^th, a great improvement over the #15 spot of 2018. It seems Chinese buyers do like station wagons, after all…

But the Climbers of the Month were once again the GAC Aion S, jumping 6 positions, to #6, while the Tesla Model 3 joined the Top 10, ending 2019 in #8, with the Californian being the first foreign nameplate to end a year in the Top 10.

What’s impressive on these two models performance, is that if both ended the year with record performances, both have even bigger growth perspectives for 2020, with the Aion S growing fast (it has always grown month-on-month since it landed), while its badge-engineered Toyota twin, the iA5, is already in four-digits (1,178 units) in only its second month on the market, so adding both together, as basically they are the same model, we get 9,638 units in December, so…I guess over 100,000 units will be impossible for the Aion S in 2020, something that the Tesla Model 3 should also be able to reach, thanks to the start of local production in Shanghai (The first 30 Made-In-China units were delivered in December).

With the BAIC EU-Series already at 100,000 units/year and SAIC’s Baojun E-Series regularly at 8,000-something performances, we could see at least 4 models hit the 100k mark in 2020…Which would make the Top 5 race in 2020 quite interesting, wouldn’t it?.

The BAIC EC-Series had a deliveries peak (11,409 units, year best) last month, allowing it to jump 6 spots, to #13, while the MG eZS EV joined the ranking in the last month of the year, thanks to a record 4,714 units, allowing it to be #19 in 2019.

But another important metric for the Shanghai Auto electric crossover is the behavior in overseas markets, with the Sino-British EV scoring close to 2,000 units in export markets, last month, the best result ever for a China-made EV.

In fact, this electric crossover has several waiting lists to be fulfilled outside China, after all there are already 2,100 orders for it in India, even before it landed there, while in the UK, I heard the interesting story that days after the price being announced in the UK, a few months ago, MG representatives were already asking for more units to the HQ in China, as the 2019 allocation had already been fully booked…As it seems demand won’t be a problem for it, we have a question:

-           -   Will SAIC have enough production capability to satisfy demand? 

And:

-     -   Does the MG crossover have enough demand (and production) to reach 100,000 units globally, in 2020?

With a ruling presence in the City EV field with the Baojun E-Series, and the MG eZS EV succeding both in the domestic and export fronts, SAIC is becoming a fierce rival for both BYD and BAIC, and we could even see it overcome them during 2020.

(General Motors could profit from the rise of Shanghai Auto, considering the special relationship it has with it, but for that to happen, GM management would need to play its cards right, something that it has failed to do when comes to electric cars…)

Speaking of General Motors, among the several good results outside the Top 20, the Buick Velite 6, GM’s (stylish) twin to the Roewe Ei5, had a record month in December, with 1,005 units. Will the Buick electric station wagon finally start to sell in significant numbers this year?

Also outside the Top 20, a mention to the ramp-up of the VW e-Lavida, now at 3,872 units, while the Audi Q2L e-Tron registered 1,049 units in only its second month on the market. Volkswagen Group is rising…

A final reference to the 3,455 units of Dongfeng’s Venucia D60 EV, will this new electric sedan become the maker’s bread and butter EV? 

Looking at the sub-categories, the BYD Tang PHEV was this year Best Selling PHEV, succeeding its stablemate BYD Qin PHEV, the Baojun E-Series was the 2019 Best Selling City EV, replacing the BAIC EC-Series, while on the full size categories, the BMW 530Le repeated last year Best Selling Car trophy, while the Tesla Model X this time managed to outsell (9,400 vs 8,900 units) the 2018 Best Seller Nio ES8, recovering the title that had belong to it in previous years.

Despite this setback, Nio kept the Best Selling Startup title, thanks to the recent success of the midsize ES6 (2,537 units in December alone).   

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (19%) won its 6th trophy in a row, while below it, the #2 BAIC (14%, up 1%) and #3 SAIC (12%, up 1%) benefitted from strong performances in December to gain share.

Outside the podium, Geely (6%) ended far from the podium, and had to keep a close eye on GAC (5%), in order to keep the 4^th position until the end.

Interestingly, the podium performers have been repeating these exact same positions since 2017, but by the look of things, 2020 will be a much more balanced race in the manufacturers ranking, with the Top 3 makers closer today than in the past, and GAC and Tesla (and Volkswagen?) running as dark horses.