2019 in Review - 2020 EVs

We start the 2019 review by saying goodbye to the Chevrolet Volt, nine years and 180.000 units later, the extended range plugin was an early pioneer, having been the world's Best Selling Plugin in 2012, and the runner-up in 2011 and 2013, but after the early peak of 2012 (25.370 units), sales have started to slow down, with the GM product losing contact with the first places, something that the heavily revised Volt II of 2016, despite surpassing the 2012 record, by registering 28.295 units, also failed to do, with GM's decision to not sell the 2nd generation Volt as Opel Ampera in Europe, not helping at all on the hatchback sales career.

To worsen things, the new generation was only produced for three years, with the first half of 2019 signaling the end of the EREV, with GM's supposed replacement, the Bolt EV, failing to beat the 2016 score of the Volt.

With both models, the Volt and Bolt, being quite different, it is bizarre that GM decided to kill the former when the vehicle still had a couple of years ahead and was profitable, but then again, bizarre decisions is what GM management seems to be specialist, like the refusal to sell the Gen 2 Volt in Europe, just at the time that PHEVs were all the rage in Europe...And i won't even ask why they haven't made the Volt MPV5 prototype!

Anyway, we say farewell to the pioneer Chevrolet Volt, an exciting, if cramped inside, electric vehicle, and a reference for any PHEV out there.   

But back at 2019, the biggest events were:

- The coming of age of Tesla and its Model 3, after finally winning its first Manufacturers trophy in 2018, ending a three year rule of BYD, the Model 3 sweapt also that year Models trophy, 2019 cleared any doubts on wether Tesla was here to stay, with the American maker repeating both titles again, but this time with a huge 100.000 units advantage over the runner-ups. And with the Model Y, Semi, Roadster and Cybertruck on the pipeline, it looks that Tesla has at least the next two titles (2020 & '21) in the bag; 

- China's subsidy changes were an earthquake in the local plugin market, originating a half-year sales rush, with the consequent fall of a cliff in Q3 and a stabilization in the doldrums in Q4. But more than a sales slump, the biggest long term consequence is the dry up of many subsidy-dependent models, while higher end nameplates, new and more competitive models from the local OEMs, like the GAC Aion S, along with quota-related introductions from foreign makers and profiting from the new environment to gain visibility, while Tesla paved the way for a strong 2020 in China, where it aims to be not only the best selling foreign maker, but also to become the first foreign OEM able to run with the best of the local brands;

- A consequence of the previous point is SAIC's lottery win with the Baojun E-Series, after a discrete career before the subsidies cut, the tiny two seater became one of the few small EVs to keep access to subsidies, propelling it to an unprecedented popularity among fleets, like car-sharing companies, becoming an unexpected bonus to the solid case that the OEM was already presenting, as it is the first Chinese EV maker to sell in (relatively) large amounts outside its domestic market, with the MG ZS EV crossover and the Maxus van, besides keeping a strong lineup of plugins across the range. If in previous years SAIC looked to be the less promising of the Chinese Big 3 (BYD, BAIC and SAIC), because it was the one to best adapt to the new environment, it is now the one to look for in China, along with the smaller GAC.

2020 EVs

Thanks to eGear.be, here is a list of what is coming and what i think of them:

Audi e-Tron Sportback - Finally some interesting looks to Audi's electric tank;

BMW iX3 - A meh! effort from BMW, a BEV version of its X3 SUV, with some middle of the road specs. The Mercedes EQC looks nicer;

FIAT 500e - With the VW EV triplets coming en force in 2020, the Italian brand had to do something , if it didn't wanted its lunch (A-segment) eaten by the German conglomerate. So in the Geneva Auto Show, they are promising a brand new 500e, with a 70.000 units target production. Unrealistic? Let's hope not, if the specs and prices are attractive, it could become a huge hit, and the automaker really needs it, because the VW triplets will pressure the other players in the city car category and FIAT without city cars in Europe...Is basically nothing.

Ford Mustang Mach-E - The reinvention of Ford? This is an OEM that seems to have seen what lied ahead (the management change surely helped), and seems to go full EV now. This new EV is really compelling and will be interesting to see the public reaction to it;

Honda e - The cutest car of 2020 and my favorite City EV, alongside the BMW i3. But that price, mmm...Will sell, but at a fraction of the i3;

Lexus UX300e - A Premium EV with an air-cooled battery, 2WD and some 300 kms range...Enough said?

Mazda MX-30 - It would be an interesting niche vehicle to add to a more mainstream EV from Mazda. But as the first mass-produced Mazda EV...Too niche.

Mercedes EQV - It won't go into the Best Sellers table, but nonetheless, it will be an interesting addition to the market, as there's nothing quite like it;

Mini Cooper Electric - After the BMW i3 being the only luxury EV on the market, the Group finally allows to launch a Mini EV, but only as a 3 door and with lower specs, and a lower price, so that it doesn't steal the i3 thunder. So yeah, it will be niche, but a good one;

Opel Corsa EV / Peugeot 208 EV - Good specs, one more techy (208), another more sporty (Corsa), both will be strong contenders to the Zoe lead in the small EV segment. Both combined could even reach 100.000 units in 2020;

Peugeot 2008 EV - Europe's Kia Niro EV. If PSA has enough batteries, it could be a huge success and reach some 50k units;

Polestar 2 - A worthy competitor to the Model 3, but most of the public won't notice it. 20k units would already be ok, 40k would be a great success;

Porsche Taycan - The only EV Elon Musk thought of being worthy to compete with Tesla. Which is saying a lot. Those 20k units allocated for 2020 could be much higher if Porsche wanted...

Tesla Model Y - Tesla Model 3, meet your nemesis. While production (200k?) of the Model Y won't be enough to displace its sibling from the Global Best Seller throne in 2020, 2021 should see it succeed to the Model 3 as the most popular EV in the World.

VW e-Up! / Seat e-Mii / Skoda Citigo EV - The triplets are the first city EVs with respectable specs and prices. Enough said. Will the triplets reach 60k units in 2020?

Volvo XC40 EV - Cousin of the Polestar 2, but with higher sales potential, because it is an SUV and Volvo is not a startup;

VW ID.3 - Along with the Tesla Model Y, the most important launch of the year. Hell, i would even say that it is the most important EV model ever, that does not wear a Tesla badge. The shape of the future of electric mobility will depend on the success of this model, that should easily surpass the 100.000 units in 2020.

All-Time Top 5 (until June 2019)

Tesla Model 3 runs to the leadership

1. Nissan Leaf (422.708)

2. Tesla Model S (277.176)

3. Tesla Model 3 (276.193)

4. Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (215.385)

5. BYD Qin / Qin Pro (PHEV+BEV) (184.692)


As one can see, the Nissan Leaf is still haed and shoulders ahead of the competition, but the surging Tesla Model 3 is already in 3rd place, having most certainly risen to SeCond in July, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is the surviving plugin hybrid in the Top 5.

Closing the Top 5, the BYD Qin remained in #5, but for this to happen, we have to count the regular Qin and the larger Qin Pro, both in BEV and PHEV versions.

H1 2019 sales by OEM (Updated)

PHEV + BEV

1. Tesla (160.009)
2. BYD (141.459)
3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (100.736)
4. Geely Group (69.795)
5. BAIC (68.933)

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 14% share (Up 5% regarding June 2018), followed by BYD (13%, up 4%) and the Renault-Nissan Alliance,  that dropped from 1st to 3rd in 12 months, having seen share drop 2% YoY, to 9% share, while the #4 Geely Group is #4, with 6% (up 2% YoY), and BAIC dropped to 5th, with 6% share (down 2%).

In short, Tesla, BYD and Geely are winning share, while the rest is losing ground.

Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese is the unconstested leader, with 56% of all deliveries (up 10% YoY), while the USA profits from Tesla to rise to the runner-up spot (17%, up 3%), while Germany (11%, down 7%) and Japan (9%, down 2%) are sinking, with Korea (6%) now looking to become the third largest plugin vehicle power.

BEV only sales 

1. Tesla (160.009)
2. BYD (96.475)
3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (73.848)
4. BAIC (68.933)
5. Hyundai-Kia (42.605)

Looking just to BEVs, Tesla expands its lead to BYD and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, while the Geely Group is replaced by the Hyundai-Kia Group and BAIC rises to #4.

Global Sales by Automotive Group - Q1 2019

With the first quarter of the year done, it is time to see how the main PEV Automotive Groups have behaved:


1. BYD Group (71.504, +150%);

2. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (60.031, +21%);

4. Geely Group (34.746, +109%);

5. BMW Group (29.208, +5%).


As we can see, the top two makers are really in a league of their own, more than doubling their sales. The Alliance (including JMC) is still close to the other two, but its growth rate is smaller.

Regarding 2018, Geely has jumped 3 spots, to 4th, surpassing its Chinese rivals and a stagnating BMW.


Looking just at BEVs, the ranking goes like this:

1. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

2. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (46.768, +16%);

3. BYD Group (45.758, +758%);

4. BAIC (26.106, +21%);

5. Hyundai-Kia (19.632, +132%).


In the BEV ranking, Tesla is the expected leader, while BYD BEVs are growing exponentially, surely surpassing the Alliance soon, while the #5 Hyundai-Kia are also on the fast lane.

Tesla Model 3 35k & the rest. Now What?

After digesting all the latest news regarding Tesla, namely the new Model 3 versions, the final balance was mostly good, but there was something for everyone: The amazingly awesome (35k Model 3, new Standard Plus version), the good (price drops around the range) and the concerning ones (Online only sales, store closures).

Let's start with the Amazingly Awesome:

-  The 35k Tesla Model 3 is finally here! After many delays and doubts, the car that made half a million buyers make a Model 3 reservation is finally here, and it has a few more features than expected, like  the glass roof, so now Tesla is now out of the "rich people toy" category, and into full-blown premium brand, hitting head on the BMW's and Mercedes prized bread 'n butter 3-Series and C-Class, as well as the most high end products of mainstream brands.

Before this expansion, the Model 3 versions only crushed competed against the most high end versions of the midsize Bimmers and Mercs, like the C300 (49k Euro) and upwards, leaving the juiciest part of the market left untounched for the established premium brands.

Now, with the Model 3 SR versions, said to be sold in Europe around 40k euro, even the cheapest version of the Merc C-Class, the C180 (41k euro), is being targeted, with either of the SR versions curshing the Mercedes, specs-wise.

The remaining Premium brands better get their midsize EVs developtment in the fast lane, or else...   

Now, the Good:

- The whole Tesla range had significant price drops, if this won't change much the edge of the high end Model 3 versions, that were already far more competitive than their ICE counterparts, both the Model S and X were in dire need of a price cut, as their prices still placed them in the "very rich people toy", along with Porsche and others, especially sice the 75D version was discontinued.

With the Model S now starting at 81k euro, the Model S price dropped significantly, making it really competitive against similar versions of the reamining pack, but it is still above the juiciest part of that market, as the cheapest Merc CLS starts at 69k euro. The Mercedes E-Class and BMW 5-Series start even lower.

So, while the price reduction will help the Model S/X sales, it won't make the same impact in thier category, that the Model 3 is going to do in the midsize category. 

Finally, the Concerning:

- Tesla realized that the 35k Model 3 was not going to be profitable without some major strategy change, hence the full bet in online sales, with the subsequent closure of most stores.

And here could lie a problem. While for a boutique brand, like Porsche or Jaguar, that could be done without major harm to sales, if Tesla wants to go after BMW, Mercedes and the like, it will need a larger network of stores, but most importantly, a big network of Service Centers.

With Tesla closing a big number of its already small network of stores (compared with the Premium major players), and apparently not investing heavily in a fast expansion of Service Centers, how will Tesla manage servicing/delivering/etc of lets say, one million of vehicles in couple of years? Chaos could be the word to describe it.

Is Tesla right in going all in with on online sales? 

    

2018 Global Sales by OEM (Updated)

Looking at the 2018 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

Regarding the previous post, both Tesla (12%) and BYD (11%) maintained their lead, but last year winner, the #3 Renault-Nissan Alliance (9%, -1%), lost a bit more ground, with the rising BAIC (8%, +1%) cutting distances to the podium, having surpassed BMW in November, to reach #4. 

Regarding the remaining OEMs, there is one significant change, with Hyundai-Kia surpassing the almighty VW Group and reaching #8, which says a lot about what is happening right now...

Interestingly, half of the Top 10 belongs to Chinese OEMs, and if we add Tesla to the Disruptors team, Legacy OEMs are a minority in the Top 10. Is this a sign of the New World Order in the automotive industry?

Looking at last year standings, and comparing it with 2018, there are noticeable changes, Tesla jumped from #5 to the leadership, Renault-Nissan dropped from #1 to 3rd, Geely dropped two positions, to #6, SAIC was up two spots to #6, while the Volkswagen was down two spots, to #9.

Highlighting the changing times, we have two new Automotive Groups in the Top 10, with Hyundai-Kia jumping to #8, and Chery reaching #10, kicking out General Motors, now #11, and Toyota (down to #15!) out of the Top 10. 

The Toyota case is particularly worrying, not only because it is one of the largest Automotive OEMs, and in this ranking is only #15, but also because in a fast growing market, it was one of the few (the only?) OEMs to lose sales (-10%) regarding 2017...


BEVs Only

Looking only at BEVs, the ranking would be like this:

1. Tesla (245.240);

2. BAIC (165.369);

3. Renault-Nissan (150.374);

4.  BYD (105.420);

5. Chery (64.897).

The disruption is even more visible here, with only Renault-Nissan on the Top 5, and Tesla winning even more easily.

In fact, if we have  increased this to a Top 10, we would only have another Legacy OEM here, Hyundai-Kia, #7, with 58.990 units.

So, BMW and the VW Group are still too PHEV-based to be considered one of the leading Legacy OEMs. Maybe things will look different in 2020? 

Tesla Model 3 - July 2018

With Tesla said to wait for July to hit the 200k registrations mark in the US, one wonders how many Model 3 units Tesla had in stock transit in order to do so, while no one really knows the final numbers, if nothing else, because June hasn't ended yet, one thing is certain, the thousands stocked during June and late May will all be delivered in July, resulting in a historic flood of deliveries that month, but the question i would like to make is:

How many Model 3's will be delivered in July? 

10,000?

20,000?

Always an optimistic, i predicted some 35k deliveries...

Our reader Illia said 23k.

And how about you?

...On how some Tesla fans do more harm than good to the Electric Revolution

This morning, while waiting for my EV to charge at a public charging station (one of many inconveniences of living in an apartment), a group of teenagers walked by the car and one of them said in a way i could hear from inside it:

- Hey! This car is charging....

Then he looked to me and said, disapprovingly:

- Na...This is no good, buy a Tesla!

After the teen kids walked away, i remembered certain comments on webforums and EV-related sites, where Tesla-zealots praise everything that comes out of St. Elon's mouth or is made by the brand, while at the same time dismissing any other EV, as "Legacy-OEM garbage", "Compliance vehicles", etc.

90% of the elements of the Tesla-zealot tribe are good people in their analogic life, with friends and loved ones, which believe by defending Tesla with warrior zeal are doing their part to make the world a better place but, much like Trump-like supporters, they lost the critical spirit regarding what they defend, it's like, if their leader said:

- Go and jump off a cliff!

Many would do so...Or not. But who can tell, right?

And while defending Tesla and dismissing everything else, they mare making the EV Transition harder, because Tesla, wether we like it or not, can't make its own mission (Promote EVs and thus help to save the world from climate change) alone, not only because it's not affordable to the average person, but Tesla vehicles do not suit every person transportation needs, for that we need diversity, and with it, several kinds of EVs.

And because of this, other EVs shouldn't be seen as threat and sacrificed in the Tesla altar.

OK, the Leaf battery is not the best in the market, so what? If you don't want it, don't buy it, but do not shout it everytime you hear the words "Nissan" and "Leaf" put together...

And so what if the Jaguar i-Pace is not better than the Model X, doesn't it have the right to be sold, despite that?

Like i heard someone say : "There are as many different tastes as there are colours"

So what that not everyone is into Tesla? Tesla alone won't save us from future carbon-induced hells...

2017 EV Stock by Fast-charging (Updated)

Here is an update to the table:

            Number of EV's sold by type of Fast Charging protocol

Year	Chademo	CCS	Tesla
2011	33.301
2012	38.852		2.721
2013	72.701	3.391	22.442
2014	100.280	25.521	31.655
2015 2016  2017 TOTALS	108.680 100.670 126.475 580.959	45.273 41.941 85.475 201.601	50.567 76.243 103.122 286.750

Tesla SC outsells CCS and Chademo in 2017

As one can see, all fast-charging standards had a great 2017, with Chademo leading, thanks to the surging Japanese sales of the Prius PHEV and Korean sales of the Ioniq BEV, while CCS is having a significant boost, as BMW i3, Chevrolet Bolt, VW e-Golf and Hyundai Ioniq Electric are all adding volume to their sales. On the other hand, most brands behind it are still focused on plug-in hybrids, that don't include fast-charging.

2018 will be an all important year in the race between Chademo and CCS, as the new Nissan Leaf will defend Chademo's lead over the rising CCS-Armada of BEV's.

Finally, while the Tesla SC is not intended to fight the other two, the truth is that strong sales of the Tesla brand made it the best selling Fast-charging protocol, increasing its lead over the CCS and with the ever-expanding network, top-of-the-range charging abilities and the undisclosed numbers of the popular Model 3 being added in the following years, expect the Tesla SC to remain a popular fast charging standard in the next decades. 

2017 Global Sales by OEM

The Global December sales post is coming soon, but taking on a reader suggestion, i've decided to post this Top 10 ranking by Automotive Group, the 2017 edition was truly exciting to see unfold, with several OEMs separated by what can only be described as split hairs, which bodes well for the dynamics of the market, with no one truly owning the market. And that's how i like it: "Diversity breeds Competition, Competition breeds Improvement".

Here are the 10 Best Selling OEMs of 2017:

1. Renault-Nissan Alliance (119.195 units)

The addition of Mitsubishi to the lineup masked a soft selling year, mostly due to the sunset-mode of the Nissan Leaf, but with its new version arriving soon, expect The Alliance to continue prospering throughout 2018. reaching between 200k to 250k units in 2018.

2. BYD Group (113.949)

Despite a struggling start, BYD got their act together and even managed to surpass their chronic production constraints, growing 14% regarding 2016. Growth is expected to continue in 2018, but with (even) more aggressive OEMs coming right behind it, it could have its podium place in danger this year...

3. BAIC Group (104.536)

The surprise of the year. Thanks to the EC-Series, the 2017 Best Selling EV, Beijing Auto, which includes Changhe Auto, became the Third largest OEM in the plug-in world, and if we limit just to BEVs, it is the Biggest, overcoming Tesla and the Renault-Nissan Alliance. How high can it go this year? Even it the 2017 growth rate (+126%) is not possible to repeat, i guess 170k units will be a reasonable target for BAIC to beat.

4. Geely Group (103.194)

The Chinese juggernaut, known to have almost as many brands as the Volkswagen Group, profited from the general growth of their plug-in offer (Zhidou, Geely, Volvo, etc...) to post a surprising result of over 103.000 units. With yet another brand addition to the lineup in 2018, with the recent, and irreverent, Lynk & Co starting to make their own PEVs, Geely is set to continue on the growth path throughout 2018.

5. Tesla (103.122)

Despite what some fanboys dream, the American brand is not (yet, at least) taking over the EV world, in fact in 2017 its growth rate (36%) was below what the global PEV market (+58%) had, so in fact, Tesla lost share last year...Expect things to change radically in 2018, with the Model 3 ramp up, with the brand deliveries expected to reach some 250k units by year end, which, it should be said, is no garantee to earn its first Best Selling Maker award, as other OEMs (Read: Chinese ones) are also stepping up dramatically. 

6. BMW Group (103.080)

In a very German way, the Luxury maker said previously it was going to reach 100.000 in 2017, and so it did, making it the Best performing legacy OEM by far. Sure, most are short-range PHEVs, but neverthless, they count here and they helped to Place BMW as the last of the "Big 6" plug-in makers of 2017. With a target of 150.000 PEVs set for 2018, count them in to reach such number, with some units to spare.

7. Volkswagen Group (70.314)

The Volkswagen Group was the Best Seller of the laggards Group B, with 70.000 units, currently struggling with shortage supply of batteries for some models (VW e-Golf, Porsche Panamera PHEV...), and not enough love regarding some other models (VW e-Up!), apart from the e-Golf (30 k in 2018?), do not expect significant growth coming from here, as their eyes are all set in 2019.

8. SAIC Group (56.149)

The smallest of the Chinese "Big 4", it has nevertheless great prostpects for 2018, not only because of the potential of the Wuling E100 (This model alone can reach some 60k in 2018), but Roewe will continue to grow, and with the addition of MG to the plug-in lineup, sales can only go up, maybe even surpassing the 150k of BMW...

9. General Motors (55.188)

It might come as shock to many of the readers, maybe in the same degree as seeing Tesla only in Fifth, but the #9 spot of General Motors is simply explained: Bad management. By concentrating their efforts in North America, they are letting go of the two largest engines of growth, the first is by far China, where they have two models (Buick Velite/Volt & Cadillac CT6 PHEV) with the wrong kind of technology (China is BEV-friendly), both selling poorly, while they have a possible winner (Bolt) still slowly ramping up production in their US factory after more than a year on the market. Which leads us to to the Second Engine of growth (Europe), where GM was greedy while negotiating  the Opel sell to PSA, effectively ending the Ampera-e (Bolt) career in Europe. Actually, the current GM management is akin to the current USA goverment: "America First". The problem for them, is that the America global relevance is getting smaller and smaller every passing day and the world will go on, regardless of what happens there. (And why did i remembered the UK's Brexit?) 

10. Toyota (50.883)

Another surprise, just one model, a plug-in hybrid no less, allows Toyota to close this Top 10, ahead of heavyweights like Hyundai-Kia (41k), or Daimler-Mercedes (37k). Caught on the Fuel Cell delusion, Toyota efectivelly lost the upper-hand it had for years with the hybrid game, and only now is trying to get in the next generation (PEV) game. But do not rule them out, with millions of happy customers running around in their hybrids, their base will be a huge plus point, once they are back in The Game. If they reached #10 with only one model, image what they can do with two or three more...

2018 New Models

A Segment (City Cars)



Zhidou D3 EV

With the five best selling models in this segment coming from China, overseas legacy OEMs have no chance in succeding in this market on a global level, except on the (Not so) Cheap and Chic niche, where FIAT continues to waste the 500e potential by only offering it in a limited number of markets, so 2018 should continue to see the number of new small EVs increase in China, trying to replicate the BAIC EC-Series success. My bet lies on the Zhidou D3 EV, it won't reach the EC-Series sales numbers, but will probably reach the class podium seat, a year from now.

B Segment (Subcompacts)

Nissan Micra

No major news in this class, except for the promised EV version of the new Nissan Micra which, should it arrive, will face stiff competition, starting with its Renault Zoe and the BMW i3, the Japanese hatch won't be able to reach these two, but it could have a shot at Third Place.

C Segment (Compacts)

2018 Nissan Leaf

The most popular EV in the World, the Nissan Leaf, had a major facelift and will start to be delivered in most markets this year, Nissan has big ambitions for the new version, with a sales target of 150.000 units, possibly earning it the class best seller status and a podium seat in the PEV ranking.

D Segment (Midsize)

Tesla Model 3

The Tesla Model 3, the EV that everyone is talking about, technically landed in 2017, but mass production will only start in 2018, so the Tesla Model 3 will possibly be the major introduction this year, being the main candidate for Best Selling PEV in 2018, with 200k/250k units likely. Another interesting addition is the Honda Clarity PHEV, also technically a 2017 model, will have its full potential shown this year, willing to keep up with the sales of the German midsizers, particularly the increasingly successful BMW 330e.

E Segment (Full Size)

Porsche Mission E

With the German Autobahn-PHEV-bruisers still far from running at the same sales pace of the all-conquering Tesla Model S, the Freemont-made car will only have a serious contender in 2019, when the Porsche Mission E is set to land. Will it outsell the Model S? Doubt it, but will likely make a dent in the Tesla Sport-Sedan sales, the first to do so...

F Segment (Full Size Luxury)

Audi A8 PHEV

If this year the Porsche Panamera PHEV trounced the established players, easily winning the race, the upcoming Audi A8 PHEV will have the same PHEV hardware as the Porsche, but despite this, it will have a harder time to make an impact, i believe Audi would already be pleased if it reached a podium seat...

SUV / CUV

2018 Porsche Cayenne PHEV

With the mainstream auto market suffering from a Crossover fever, the PEV niche is also not immune to it, with the Hyundai Kona BEV, Kia Niro PHEV/BEV and Yuan PHEV/BEV twins making an impact in the class, if the respective brands manage to make enough of them, which isn't a given, these are models that could possibly run for a Top 5 spot in the class.

The new Porsche Cayenne PHEV will try to replicate the success of the 2nd Gen Panamera PHEV in the Full-size Premium SUV class, trying to reach a podium seat in its niche.

Fully electric Premium SUVs will start arriving in 2018, with the Jaguar i-Pace and Audi e-Tron being the first representatives of the so-called Model X killers. If the German model is set to arrive only by the end of the year, and in limited quantities, qualifying it more as a 2019 model, the British model is set to arrive sooner (Summer?), and by the end of this year we should have an idea of how big will be its impact on the market.

A bit of a Dark Horse, with a lot to prove, but also with plenty to win, the NIO ES8 is the first mass-market model from a Chinese startup to arrive. Will it be any good? Will the brand be able to make it in large quantities? More importantly, in the long run, will buyers continue to flock into it by the thousands?

So...Lots of stuff going on in this class.

MPV / Minivans

With two of the class Best Sellers (Ford C-Max Energy and Mercedes B250e) ending their career, and no big novelties in 2018, it's up to the BMW 225xe AT, and the oldtimer BYD e6 the difficult task to sustain the momentum in 2018.

LCV / Vans

Nissan e-NV200

In a segment dominated until 2017 by just two models, the Renault Kangoo ZE and Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia, the delivery ramp up of the StreetScooter Work allowed it to race with the previous two, with the Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia still leading the (small) pack. With the Japanese van set to receive the 40 kWh battery from the new Nissan Leaf soon, expect it to breakaway from the remaining two this year.

Sports Cars / Convertibles

BMW i8 Spyder

After putting to shame the little competition it had over these last four years, the BMW i8 is almost synonymous with this category, entering in 2018 with upgrades and the long awaited Spyder version, so at least until the arrival of the new Tesla Roadster, the i8 has this market all to itself.

Pick-up Trucks

Tesla Model ????

With the end of the Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck, of which were made some 1.000 units over a four year span, this highly profitable class have only competitors from China, with the 2017 Best Selling Electric Pick-up Truck  being the Dongfeng Rich EV selling some 400 units. 

In fact, the largest number of electric pick-ups of a single model still date date back for the Dinosaur Era (Ford Ranger EV, with 1.705 units delivered from 1998 to 2002).

 It seems we all have to wait for Tesla to shake things up with its own Pick-up Truck...