Ukraine April 2020

PHEVs to the power among new registrations...

...While the Nissan Leaf continues to be the king of used imports

With Ukraine being a little known success story in the EV world, in 2018 the PEV share crossed north of the 1% mark in new car sales, while adding used imports to the tally, the score jumped to 5% of registrations, this country demonstrated a winning formula for the electrification of developing countries: Customs clearance for EVs, without paying excise taxes and VAT allows that the private sector to import used EVs from markets where electric vehicles are common (California, Europe, etc), but old models, like the Nissan Leaf, are cheap, as locals disregard them for having low range and looking old hats.  

This way, these EVs instead of collecting dust in used dealer lots of more developed markets, they gain a new life in these countries, where their cheap prices and running costs are a boon for customers avid for electric cars, but can't reach to the price of a new EV.

This year, Ukraine continues on the right track, with 1.5% share, in line with last year result, but the powertrain mix has changed considerably, while last year BEVs ruled, with some 80% share, this year it's PHEVs that are ahead, with 56% of registrations.

So, do the Best Sellers table reflect this change on the status quo?

Indeed it does, looking at first time registrations, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is in the lead, and if the Japanese SUV had been before in that position, back in 2017, due to a fleet deal with the local Police, this time is due to organic demand, running ahead of another PHEV, the Porsche Cayenne PHEV.

The last place of the podium (and Best Selling BEV trophy) is being hardly fought by the Audi e-Tron and Jaguar i-Pace, with British SUV being quite popular on this corner of Europe.

Interestingly, all 5 models are either crossover or SUVs…

Because the used imports market is some 5 times larger than the 1st registrations, it is important to look at the overall EV fleet in Ukraine, there are already some 27.000 plugins in Ukraine, making it one of the Top 12 countries in Europe when it comes to EV parc size, with the Nissan Leaf being by far the most common model, with over 11.000 units zooming around Ukraine, of all these plugins, 3 out of 4 are BEVs, and the average age is around 5 years.

Hat tip to Ivan, of IRS Group.

Ukraine October 2019

Tesla Model 3 rules among new registrations...

...While the Nissan Leaf continues to be the king of used imports

With Ukraine being a little known success story in the EV world, in 2018 the PEV share crossed north of the 1% mark in new car sales, while adding used imports to the tally, the score jumps to 5% of registrations, this country demonstrated a winning formula for the electrification of developing countries: Customs clearance for battery electric vehicles, without paying excise taxes and VAT that allows that the private sector to import used EVs from markets where electric vehicles are common (California, Europe, etc), where old EVs like the Nissan Leaf are cheap, as locals disregard them for having low range and looking sooo-2013.  

This way, these EVs instead of gaining dust in used dealer lots of more developed markets,  they gain a new life in these countries, where their cheap prices and running costs are a boon for customers avid for electric cars, but can't reach to the price of a new EV.

This year, Ukraine continues on the right track, with the EV share of new registrations growing to 1.2% (1.5% with PHEVs included), while on the used imports market, BEVs reach 3.3% (4.1% if we include PHEVs to the tally).

So, who are the heroes of this peculiar market?

Looking at first time registrations, the Tesla Model 3 is the 2019 Best Seller, with  some 160 deliveries, followed by the Nissan Leaf and Jaguar i-Pace(!), both at over 100 units.

Adding used imports (6.259 units), things change significantly, with Ukraine's favorite EV Nissan Leaf representing close to  half of the registrations (2.763 units), followed from a far by the Tesla Model S (499 units) and the Renault Kangoo ZE(!), with 419 units.

Ukraine February 2019 & Georgia Q1 2019

Ukraine

With Ukraine being a little known success story in the EV world, in 2018 the PEV share crossed North of the 1% mark in new car sales, while adding used imports to the tally, the score jumps to over 5% of registrations, this country demonstrated a winning formula for the electrification of developing countries: exempting taxes (import tax, road tax, etc), allows that the private sector to import used EVs from markets where electric vehicles are common (California, Japan etc), where old EVs like the Nissan Leaf are cheap, as locals disregard them for having low range and feeling sooo-2013.  

This way, these EVs instead of gaining dust in used dealer lots of developed markets, gain a new life in new countries, where their cheap prices and running costs are a boon for customers avid for electric cars, but that just can't afford for a new car, let alone a new EV.

This year, Ukraine continues on the right track, with the 114 new plugins registered representing a bit more than 1% share of the total new car market.

Of this niche, the Jaguar i-Pace(!) is the 2019 Best Seller, with 21 deliveries, followed by the BMW i3 (12 units), and the Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe cousins, both with 11 registrations.

Adding used imports, the numbers swell to some 6% PEV share, with the Nissan Leaf representing about half of the registrations.

JAC iEV7S in Georgia

Georgia

This Caucasus country is also using the "second hand EV" formula to fast-track their transport electrification plans, if new car plugin sales are only starting to move the needle (0.5% PEV share in 2018), adding used imports, the 2019 share starts to become significant, at 2.1%.

Used Nissan Leafs are also popular here, being the most common EV in this market, but the Chevrolet Volt is a close Second, with more than 100 registrations this year alone, while the Third most registered EV is the BMW i3, with only 16 registrations, so basically this is a Leaf/Volt market.

As for 0 km units, only Hyundai is looking at this market half-seriously, delivering a few Ioniq Electric, along with a larger fleet of Ioniq Hybrid registrations.

This market, although small, could present an opportunity for brands like Nissan (Leaf), Renault (Zoe), or Mitsubishi (Outlander PHEV) to deliver an few additional units of their EVs, and stay ahead of the curve, as the Chinese JAC has been already testing the waters here, with 2 iEV7S Crossover being registered late last year. And other Chinese are coming.

Nissan in particular has a chance to avoid the mistake made in Ukraine, where it took forever to start selling the Leaf officially, when there were already thousands of second hand units zooming around on Ukranian roads...

Op-Ed: Top 10 Countries in 2018

This is the Inside EVs contributor Assaf Oron Top 10 in 2018, an article i had the pleasure to help doing, it ranks the countries that made a larger contribution for the EV Revolution last year. Enjoy: 

2018 has been a true transition year. One could say, Year 0 of EVs charging into the major

leagues. For that we have to thank mostly China, Tesla, and Hyundai-Kia, in that order.

Highlights:

 According to Jose, global EV sales surged 65% over 2017 (and 2017 was 58% over

2016!) - ending at just over 2 million new plug-in vehicles, and 2.1% global market

share. It should be noted that the ICE auto market was slightly down in 2018, and is

forecast to drop even further in 2019.

 For the first time ever, a single EV sold in six figures in a single year, a classic major-

league sales milestone. And the Tesla Model 3 did it in style, with nearly 146k

deliveries in its first full year on the market!

 The world’s leading EV market by volume, China, crossed another milestone with over

a million EVs sold in one country in one year, the vast majority BEVs.

I keep the exact same scoring system as last year’s list, so the points are directly comparable

to 2017. If in 2017, only the top 2 countries reached 50+ points and #3 had 45, in 2018 we

have 4 with 50+ and 2 with 45+, while the leader gallops towards 80.

Ok let’s go. Last year’s place is in parentheses.

10 th Place – tie (8 th and 9th): Germany and Ukraine, 40 points. Claim to fame: Germany’s

EV consumers run ahead of its stagnating automakers; Ukraine continues to play role-model

for low/med-income countries and to shame spoiled Western EV consumers, but suffers

fluctuating denominators.

An interesting pair these two make, being Europe’s economic powerhouse and its anchor of

stability, vs. one of the continent’s poorest with a wildly unstable economy.

German automakers’ EV production was flat in 2018, a bit over 200k. Their years-long bet on

subpar PHEVs backfired spectacularly, with July’s EU-wide introduction of more stringent

emissions standards. They were caught flatfooted and had to revamp all PHEVs. VW is

talking big about near-future EV production, but talk is cheap. I would also really like to see

Mercedes e-buses in large quantities, there is absolutely no excuse for the Western world’s

largest bus-maker to continue foot-dragging on this. German consumers, meanwhile, nudged

sales and market share up by about one-third to ~70k and ~2.0%, salvaging Germany from

dropping out of the Top 10.

Just like in previous years, over half of EVs introduced to Ukraine’s roads last year were

used imported Leafs. BEV sales roughly doubled to 5300, but PHEVs probably dropped (I

don’t have exact numbers). The overall auto market increased due to a sharp rise in used-

imports. So it seems the effective EV market share stayed roughly flat at 3-3.2%.

Ukraine shows how a low-medium income country can play a meaningful role in the EV

revolution. But I’ve realized there’s an even stronger lesson for us in the West, in particular

the US.

Every year, thousands of Ukrainians – a country where the average monthly salary is $300 –

line up to pay $15,000 for an 80-100 mile used American Leaf. In their harsh winter, range

might be easily 40% shorter than that, and there are hardly any quick-charge stations – but

there’s always demand for those used Leafs.

Meanwhile, Americans who make easily 10x more than Ukrainians, have access to brand-

new Leafs with double the range for the cheapest prices to be found anywhere, and to brand-

new Bolts with triple the range for not much more – but could not be bothered. In fact, to

judge by comments on American EV sites and by some “analysis” stories, the offer to, say,

lease a 150-mile Leaf for 3 years at a price of $7-10k total out-of-pocket, no worries about

battery depletion or resale value (or to get e.g., a 125-mile eGolf for a similar price) – is a

ridiculously bad deal, beneath contempt, almost a crime against Humanity.

So, my fellow EV fans: do you really like EVs? As much as the Ukrainians do? Please do

maintain some perspective. Thank you.

9 th Place: Japan (tie-5th), 43 points. Claim to fame: stagnant domestic market and limited

focus by automakers, combine for a continued slide.

Japan slid to its lowest place in the list’s history. Its EV market, dominated by 1-2 domestic

models, was down somewhat to 52k sales and 1.0% market share, lower than any other

country in the Top 20, let alone the Top 10. The 240-km Gen 2 Leaf whose best 2018 market

was Japan, salvaged things from cratering completely. It should be noted that the Japanese

don’t buy Korean EVs and vice-versa. I wonder whether this has to do with mutually

destructive tariffs.

Just like Germany, Japan’s world-leading auto industry should do much more on EVs. One

cannot deny that the world’s most common BEV and most common PHEV are still both Japan

designed-and-made, and both had a good year (Leaf and Outlander). Also, Honda showed

what it can do with the Clarity PHEV – which with the Volt’s retirement, is the world’s best

passenger PHEV on offer (only available in the US, though?). So unlike the Germans’ wacky

EV offerings thus far, the Japanese certainly have it in them when they want it. Most of them,

unfortunately, still don’t want it. To add insult to injury, we now have the Ghosn scandal, losing

Japan’s prominent EV front man.

The main thing preventing Japan from dropping out of the Top 10 like a depleted Leaf battery-

pack, is its global leadership role in battery production (Panasonic-Tesla, and to a lesser

extent also AESC-Nissan).

8 th Place: Iceland (7 th ), 43.5 points. Claim to fame: Iceland continues its role as the “mini-

Norway”, although a bit more like Sweden.

Sparsely-populated Iceland saw EV sales increase to 3500 and 17.5% market share, #2 in

the world, with December’s share around 30%. Sounds a lot like Norway a few years ago,

except that the EV mix here is PHEV-heavy like in Sweden.

7 th Place: The United Kingdom (tie-11th), 44 points. Claim to fame: steady rise and

production spurt finally land the UK solidly in the Top 10.

The UK was a perennial “almost”, never quite making it into the annual Top Countries list.

Well, it landed with a bang and seems here to stay. Unless the ongoing Brexit fiasco craters

its EV scene.

Sales increased ~40% to 61.4k and 2.3% share, but the big story was production. Nissan’s

Sunderland plant feeds Europe’s Gen 2 Leaf demand, while Jaguar got tired of the Germans’

empty talk about their mythical “Tesla-killer”, and came out relatively quickly with the i-Pace, a

veritable competition to the Model X selling a solid 7k units in its first few months.

6 th Place: The Netherlands (16th), 45 points. Claim to fame: our biggest mover has

successfully reinvented itself as a BEV haven, but how about a little more consistency from

now on?

While the UK added an impressive 9 points, the Netherlands jumped by a full 12, advancing

10 spots. A few years ago the Netherlands sported the world’s #2 market share after Norway,

but it was almost all PHEVs due to some tax loophole exploited by fleet managers. The

loophole was closed, EV sales cratered, and the country dropped out of my Top 10. Now they

are back with a vengeance, sales more than doubling to 28k and 5.2% market share, 9/10ths

of them BEVs.

We’re not done with loopholes, however; luxury BEVs enjoyed favorable taxes, expiring at the

end of 2018. So of course the 2018 best-selling EV list is dominated by luxury brands. Now,

hopefully, Netherlands will experience an auto-tax system in line with environmental and

economic sanity, and we’ll see what the country’s “normal” EV market really looks like.

Another thing in Netherland’s favor is its relative leadership role on electric buses. Granted,

that’s a continued abysmal weakness of European automaking and bus purchasing; but

against that weakness, Netherlands almost alone is punching above its weight. Eindhoven-

based VDL makes only 1-2k buses a year, but 10% of them (and rising) are electric; they

sold their 500 th e-Bus last September, continuing to compete with Poland’s Solaris for the

continent’s #1 e-bus making spot. By contrast, Mercedes (oops, have I already mentioned

them?) makes ~30k buses/year around the world, practically none of them electric.

5 th Place: Sweden (tie-3 rd ), 49 points. Claim to fame: despite solid performance, Sweden

drops 1.5 spots. Also, how about some BEVs for a change?

Similarly to 2017, Sweden again increased sales year-over-year by ~1.5x, to 29.k and 7.2%.

Amazingly, that wasn’t enough to hang on to its tie for 3 rd . One reason is only 27% BEV in the

mix, and Volvo’s continued delay in introducing a BEV to the market. Not much else to add.

4 th Place: South Korea (tie-5 th ), 50 points. Claim to fame: Korean automakers continue to

jump ahead in the EV game.

Korea finally broke its two-year tie with Japan, big time. While Japan slid way down, Korean

automakers more than doubled their EV output, from 39k to 95k, and introduced the

midmarket SUVs Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro, each available both as a PHEV and as a 200-

mile BEV. Meanwhile, the Hyundai Ioniq BEV continued to sell well in Europe and Korea.

Consumers didn’t lag behind, doubling EV purchases to 32k and 1.75% share. And battery

maker LG Chem continues to compete with Panasonic-Tesla and BYD for the world’s #1 spot.

On the bus front, Koreans apparently believe in fuel-cells rather than electric. Oh well, see

how that pans out for them; better than diesel in any case.

3 rd place: the United States (tie-3 rd ), 53 points. Claim to fame: welcome to Tesla Country.

EV sales increased dramatically to 361k and 2.1% (exactly China’s 2017 market share), a

75% increase, most of it due to domestic production. Tesla’s near-impossible Model 3 ramp

plans finally started happening for real, and the company still managed to sell nearly 100k of

the S and X worldwide. And thanks to the Gigafactory, the US is increasing its battery-

production score as well. So things look pretty rosy.

Until you look outside of Tesla. Sales of non-Tesla BEVs were actually down 25%, despite

Nissan introducing Gen 2 Leaf in March, and Chevy Bolts offered at deep discounts. Lesser

EV models saw even sharper drops: eGolf was down 3x, Soul EV down 2x. Recall that the

Model 3 was offered for ~$50k or more until near 2018’s end, so ostensibly this was not direct

competition.

I think what’s going on is that American consumers have fallen into thinking that EVs are

either Tesla or “a bunch of useless, overpriced golf carts”. It’s not a random thought; much of

US media coverage, and what people write on American EV blogs and comment threads,

suggests this strongly.

The Tesla-first patterns were even stronger on the automaker side. GM just killed its Volt,

reneging on the promise to use its technology in larger vehicles. The party line is that “the

time window for PHEVs has passed; we’re going straight to BEVs”. Forgive me for not buying

it, because sales of Exhibit A for GM’s purported future, the Bolt, were completely flat from

2017 (~28k). Not only did they fail to exploit another full year in the US market with >$10k

price advantage over the Model 3; under 10% of Bolt production went to Europe where it

could have made a killing. So 2018’s only affordable 200-mile BEV in Western markets fell

from the global #10 position in 2017, to below the top 20. This is a rather shocking failure of

leadership. And Ford has essentially killed all its EV production, which was pretty lame to

begin with. They are said to be working on an electric F150; but how long will that take, given

that their only BEV experience is small volumes of the Focus? It is a sad year when Chrysler

is the best-behaved Big Three member. Or put another way, in 2018 Tesla sold 4x as many

EVs as all the Big Three put together.

We are lucky to have Tesla and to see it achieve such high-volume midmarket success. But

judging by the US patterns, some of its success has been zero-sum vs. other EVs. It doesn’t

matter whether it’s intentional or just US consumer silliness and Big Three corruption at play;

the bottom line is dangerous. Tesla (or any other automaker), is never free of the risk of

failure. It is problematic when in the world’s #2 auto market, all the EV eggs are in one basket,

especially when this basket itself is dominated by a single person who’s had a rather shaky

year at the top.

And then there’s the political and incentive environment. For a decade, the straightforward,

relatively generous US Federal incentive has served as an anchor, in particular once

automakers started bundling it into lease deals enabling people to enjoy it regardless of tax

liability. But in 2018 we’ve finally hit against its weird sunset rules, and in a way that actually

hurts the leading American EV producers (Tesla and GM) while sparing foreign automakers.

But instead of fixing this, the White House and its Congress allies want to kill the incentive

completely. Meanwhile, the EPA has been inhabited by oil-owned zombies, who claim we do

not need to conserve oil anymore, and seem willing to undermine California’s ZEV mandates

that drive that state’s unique EV scene.

But with all that said, the Model 3 juggernaut has enough kick-ass energy in it now, to lift the

US even further in 2019. And fortunately, other markets don’t seem to be following US’s

Tesla-or-bust, anti-incentives trend.

2 nd place: Norway (2 nd ), 56 points. Claim to fame: perennial silver medalist gets another one;

some progress on larger vehicles.

Norway’s passenger EV sales approached 50% of market total, with the Leaf winning

general-market #1 for the year. Light-commercial EV sales doubled, but are still under 5% so

the weighted average EV share was 41%, up from 34% in 2017 and 27% in 2016. There’s

some progress on buses, still lots to go.

Norway continues to function as the EV world’s lab on what happens further ahead in the

market transition, but in its overall role in the EV revolution, it is no match to...

1 st place: China (1 st ), 78 points. Claim to fame: a crisp, cool million – actually 1.1 million -

despite yet another regulatory revamp. The sky’s the limit.

No one can catch China now, at least not for a few years. As the intro said, sales easily

crossed 1 million, while EV market share doubled from 2.1% to 4.2% thanks to an ICE-market

volume drop. For the second straight year, the government intervened in the EV market to

improve production quality, this time by raising the bar for subsidies in terms of minimum

range/power. This put a dent in last year’s world-record breaker, the BAIC EC-Series. Its

sales stopped for a few months to get it upgraded, causing it to miss joining the Model 3 in the

six-figure club; it still managed to beat its 2017 performance (as well as narrowly edge the

Leaf for global #2), with 90k sales.

Meanwhile, BAIC has come out with the larger, stronger-spec EU Series, as well as the EX

Series SUV, and they are stealing the EC’s thunder. Despite a late start, both newbies

managed to land in the global Top 20 for 2018. I wonder which of the three will reach an

annual six figures first? Overall, China’s residents bought ~55% of the world’s EVs last year,

spread across many automakers, with BYD rather than BAIC the overall volume leader. Look

at China’s Top 20 list to see how broad and deep the transition has become.

And of course, China still totally determines the world’s EV bus scene. According to Jose it

was same-old same-old in 2018: another year, another ~100,000 new electric buses in China.

Meanwhile, Europe added a mind-boggling 650 (six hundred and fifty) electric buses in 2018,

with a good chunk actually coming from China. That’s not even a rounding error in Chinese

terms.

Wrap-up and Tidbits

 For the first time, France is off the list with 39 points. As I have repeatedly warned the

French, their gradual improvement rate is not enough in today’s EV world. They

listened and tried, market share increasing by one-quarter to 2.1%, but still fell short.

Only a major advancement, e.g., doubling of Renault ZOE production, or PSA finally

putting some skin into the game, will bring them back.

 If one splits the US to California vs. all the rest, the “Not-California” part drops out of

the Top 10, while California with 7.8% EV share and Tesla’s production numbers,

shoots past Norway to 2 nd place with 63 points.

Ukraine July 2018

Leaf's galore in Ukraine

King Leaf
EVS readers know that the Ukrainian EV market is something of a pet project of mine, as their love for electric cars is as strong, as it is unexpected (for people outside the country, at least), which is why i like to report it regularly.

In the first seven months of 2018, 2,490 EVs have been registered. Compared to the same period last year, the demand for exclusively electric cars was up by 64% in Ukraine, according to the association Ukravtoprom, leading to a PEV share of 3% of all passenger vehicles registered this year.

The majority (84%) of electric cars, which became registered from January to July 2018, were second hand units. Still, even if we count only 0 km units, the Ukranian PEV share is still at a relevant 1.1%.

An important note to mention, is that Ukraine is one of the markets chosen by Volkswagen to distribute the US diesel units that were forbidden to circulate because of the Dieselgate scandal, that is why beside EVs, lots of second hand cars are flooding the Ukranian market.

When purchasing electric cars, Ukrainians choose the Nissan Leaf as their favorite model. As a result, this model has formed almost 2/3 of the market of electric vehicles, that is why saying "Leaf" in Ukraine is almost sinonymous like saying "EV" there.  

Here is the current podium:

1. Nissan Leaf (1,621 units, 83 new);

2. BMW i3 (182 units, 51 new);

3. Tesla Model S (123 units, 33 new).

Regional Distribution

Kyiv for the third year in a row holds the uncontested leadership in the number of registered electric cars. 

Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv region are also leading regions in the adoption of EVs, if the leadership of the first two areas can be determined by the presence of large ports, the number of electrification in the Kharkiv region can be explained solely by the love of local people to modern technology. The neighboring Sumy and Chernihiv regions are unconditional outsiders by the number of owners of electric vehicles. For example, in Chernihiv region this year, only 9 electrocars found their owners, while residents of the Kharkiv region already purchased 213 clean cars.

Hat tip to Oleg and Illia!

Sources:

 http://ukrautoprom.com.ua/rynok-avtomobilnogo-sekond-xenda-prodolzhaet-bit-rekordy

https://prm.ua/pivroku-bez-pdv-ta-aktsizu-pryamiy-porahuvav-skilki-v-ukrayini-elektrokariv-ta-gibridiv/

Ukraine April 2018 (2nd Update - Now with regional distribution)

 Nissan Leaf electric Pick-up truck, anyone?

It is known that the Ukrainian EV market is an unsung hero, which is why i like to report from time to time, and now it's time for another update.

Most of the +/- 1,750 electric cars (7% BEV Share) imported this year were second hand units (85%), with half of them being Nissan Leaf, which is almost like saying "EV" in Ukraine. Here is the current podium:

1. Nissan Leaf (723 units, 52 new);

2. BMW i3 (58 units, 19 new);

3. Tesla Model S (52 units, 18 new).

In 2018, electric vehicles and other vehicles equipped exclusively with an electric motor continue exempted from taxation by excise tax and value-added tax (VAT) when they are transported to the customs territory of Ukraine.

Source: http://www.avtonovyny.com.ua/ryinok-elektromobiley-v-ukraine-vyiros-v-poltora-raza-v-marte/

Hat tip to Oleg and Illia, for the help on this post.

And now something about the regional distribution of EVs in Ukraine:

Most electric vehicles are Nissan Leaf. By  rule people who buy them already have one car in the family. This electric vehicle is purchased for travel from home to work in the office and back. Many drivers of the Nissan Leaf are women. In megacities (from 300,000 population to 5,000,000), we can get from suburbs from a distance up to 60-70 km. 

Odessa - a major seaport - receives ships from America with Nissan Leaf, there they are cleared and sold and partly taken to Kharkov and Kiev. Through Odessa there is a flow of non-cleared cars with Moldovan, Romanian, Bulgarian numbers. Autos with Polish plates go through Lviv and Lutsk. Autos on Lithuanian plates go through Belarus to Kiev, Lviv and Lutsk.

Kharkov is the headquarters of the largest auto-importer in Ukraine of imported electric vehicles, AutoEntherprise.

Gasoline and diesel fuel cost $ 1.2 per 1L. Electricity $ 0.09 per 1 kWh commercial price and night rate if you charge at home about $ 0.04 per  1 kWh.

Most prefer refueling gas cars with propane butane (LPG) for $ 0.5 per 1l. 

Op-Ed: Top 10 Countries in the Global EV Revolution: 2017 Edition

This is the 2017 edition of Assaf Oron's report on the EV Revolution, thanks for inviting me to cooperate on it.

As footnote, the 2016 edition is the most seen article on EV Sales...Strangely, the runner-up is an article on Fuel Cells(!).

Top 10 Countries in the Global EV Revolution: 2017 Edition

Yup, it’s that time of year again! Time for ranking, rating and listing, according to my semi-secret formula, a minor tweak of last year’s version.

Here’s the disclaimer, same as last year:

1. The score is multi-faceted rather than representing solely consumer sales, and

2. This is a global challenge, to which different countries can contribute in different ways, and the big picture must be in view.

The lion’s share of credit for data goes as usual, to Jose Pontes’ EV Sales Blog. Some data arrives from insideevs.com, in particular its excellent US sales report card, and some from my own online sleuthing. Speaking of sleuth, some numbers and percentages may look different from what you saw elsewhere, and this is because I’ve done extra work of adding light-commercial (LCV) sales to numerator and denominator, and other deeper-dive-into-numbers tweaks.

No lengthy preambles this time… perhaps only this: with global plug-in sales rising nearly 60% over 2016, easily crossing the thresholds of one million sales and 1% market share, individual countries must sprint ahead just in order to stay in the same place. As you shall see below, if you dare.

Ok let’s go. Last year’s place is in parentheses.

10^th Place (tie-5th): France, 38 points. Claim to fame: EVs’ stable “Oak Tree” country doesn’t advance fast enough to keep up.

Not too much to say here. Despite production bottlenecks, the Renault ZOE, equipped since late 2016 with a 41-kWh battery, was far and away Europe’s best-selling plug-in last year. It also dominates France’s rather monochrome domestic EV market. Between the ZOE and Renault’s electric Kangoo LCV, you’ve gotten half of France’s 2017 sales (totaling ~43k for a 1.7% share, up from 1.4% in 2016), and nearly all of its domestic EV production (estimated ~46k, nearly 3% share), because the other large French automaker, Peugeot-Citroen, still refuses to enter the game for real. If the French EV scene doesn’t come up with a new trick, it may drop out of the Top 10 next year.

9^th place (tie-5th): Ukraine, 38.5 points. Claim to fame: conveyor belt of used American Leafs continues; huge Outlander PHEV order.

Last year Ukraine provided the Top 10’s biggest surprise, as well as a recipe for poor nations how to hop-skip into the EV revolution. Ukraine is pretty much the only country officially considered poorer-than-average, that has any serious EV game going (#1 China is now middle or upper-middle in terms of residents’ domestic purchasing power). In 2017, roughly half of EVs introduced to Ukrainian roads were used Leafs, mostly from the US. Ukraine EV sales nearly doubled in 2017, from 2600 to an estimated ~4600, aided by a massive national police order of 635 new Outlander PHEVs. However, since Ukraine’s hot-and-cold overall auto sales also grew by 60-70% from 2016 to 2017, EV market share only increased from 2.9% to 3.1%. So Ukraine slipped 4 places down.

8^th place (13^th): Germany, 40 points. Claim to fame: Domestic sales roar to life; will BMW put a (teeny) plug in every car?

Various dirty tricks and EV buyer hesitancy had kept Germany off the List in 2015-6. 2017 was a different story, sales jumping from ~25k to >55k, and market share doubling to 1.5%. German automakers cranked out ~212k EVs, bypassing the US for the world’s #2 spot by volume. BMW alone delivered nearly 100k last year, which tend to be minimal-range PHEVs, hinting at a compliance play; won’t be the first trick by German automakers to make them look cleaner than they really are. A cleaner act was the launch and quick ramp of StreetScooter BEV vans, produced by Deutsche Post; ~4.5k of them were deployed in 2017. With the government now setting its sights on electric buses, Germany has a good shot at continuing to move up.

7^th Place: Iceland (4^th), 43 points. Claim to fame: Iceland becomes 2^nd country in world with double-digit EV share, jumping from 5.7% in 2016 to 13% in 2017.

Cynics might argue that Iceland’s population is smaller than some suburbs, and 13% translates to only 3k EV deliveries. Well, compare Iceland’s EV market to, say, Denmark where <1k were sold last year; or Italy where <5k out of 2.4 million cars sold were EVs; or Israel, with 20x the population and with conditions far friendlier for EV adoption (one could say, “a Better Place”, har har) than frigid far-flung Iceland – Israel where the EV market finally “woke up again” in 2017, with a jaw-dropping 1.6k deliveries. So at this stage, yes Iceland is a serious player and EV pioneer, with a clean grid and strong, consistent public support.

5^th Place two-way tie: Japan (tie-7^th) and South Korea (tie-7^th),  44 points. Claim to fame: with their domestic markets showing life, both East Asian automotive and battery powerhouses are on the rise.

Last year, Japan dropping down met South Korea moving up, to tie for 7^th. This year was better for both, but the tie has held. South Korea completed a five-fold sales rise in 2 years, to 14.2k and 0.9% market share in 2017, and its automakers cranked out >40k plug-ins, double last year. South Korea gets extra credit for the Hyundai Ioniq, a new attractive sedan lineup available only in BEV/PHEV/hybrid versions, a concept now mimicked by Honda with its Clarity. And the Koreans are not done: early in 2018 Kia Niro became the second affordable plug-in SUV available in the West, the Bolt-like (but more SUV-looking) Hyundai Kona BEV will hit the markets later this year, and a long-range Soul EV may come out around the same time.

Meanwhile, Japan nearly tripled its sales last year, to 162k and a 1.1% market share. Japan’s domestic EV market is even more boring than France’s: Prius Prime and the Leaf accounted for nearly 80%, and nearly half the rest was Outlander PHEVs. The EV world can’t wait for Japanese automakers to start diversifying and expanding. The successful Prime launch, and the promising domestic launch of Leaf II are good, and it’s also good to see Honda finally getting off their asses. But an industry feeding 25-30% of the global auto demand can and should do more, faster. In 2017 Japanese automakers sold about 132k EVs, roughly 0.5% of their total output – a smaller EV share than Korean and American automakers, and far below the Chinese, German, French and Swedes.

Back on the plus side, Japan and Korea together with China and Japan, still run the global battery-pack production market, which counts for a lot in my books. Since the vast majority of big battery plants coming up in other countries are still run or advised by Japanese or Korean companies, these two countries will continue to receive credit for that.

3^rd place, tie: Sweden (3^rd) and the United States (tie-5^th), 44 1/2 points. Claim to fame: Sweden continues well-rounded performance but no breakout year; despite some setbacks, US EV makers show their strength in 2017 and the Tesla Semi already generates a bang years before delivery.

An Olympic year is a great time to share medals! The bronzes go to a pair who beat the competition by a hair. The US could have gotten it outright, had the Model 3 ramp gone closer to plans. Still, credit is due to US automakers for helping lead the move to EVs’ second generation. Exhibit A is actually not the Model 3, but the Bolt and its successful nationwide ramp-up in 2017 (although this car’s main natural markets are overseas; will the geniuses at GM marketing realize this in time? Or will the Volt story repeat itself?). And Chrysler of all people, overcame early quality woes and produced relatively solid quantities of its new Pacifica PHEV minivan, the first mid-price EV available in the US at a large size class, and with a decent 33-mile range. Ford hasn’t done well, but at least they used 2017 to get rid of their anti-EV CEO. Not to get too excited, we note that the US Big 3 automakers also lobbied the new US government to water down efficiency rules, which – if it happens – will have a chilling effect on EVs.

Domestic sales increased relatively modestly from 160k to just under 200k, but since the overall US auto market shrunk in 2017, market share increase was more impressive (from 0.9% to 1.2%), in the process crossing 1% for the first time, after 3 years of hovering not far below it.

But arguably, the biggest American EV news came in November, about a vehicle still in development: the Tesla Semi. I generally don’t credit country scores for announcements and pre-deliveries. But the Semi announcement is an exception. Prior to the it, hardly anyone outside of Tesla thought that heavy long-haul BEV trucks can be viable anytime soon. The announcement, the real-life test drives, and the quick wave of paid pre-orders by big companies, have thrown the world of trucks and truck makers into turmoil, in a good way.

Truck emissions are huge: trucks consume one-third of global transport energy demand (pdf link), and roughly half of that is heavy-duty trucks, the fastest-growing segment of oil consumption. In Tesla’s favor works the fact that truck fleet buyers are less subject to, ahem, the capriciousness of the individual consumer market: if a BEV truck does the work, drives down operating cost, and helps meet emissions targets (which often means tax deductions) – they will buy it.

With the Semi news, with some Chinese-made full-size delivery vans showing up stealthily on American shores in late 2017 via a company called Chanje, and with Proterra continuing to increase bus production (still in the hundreds, though) and BYD producing buses and even some trucks in California, the US is the only country besides China to have a meaningful, well-rounded presence in the field of large work-related EVs, a critical front in the battle against the oil economy. So yeah, I credited the US one point for the Tesla Semi announcement, and also expanded the bus component of the score to all heavy work vehicles, and increased its weight from 15% to 20%.

Far less drama took place in Sweden, with EV share rising from 3.2% to 4.7%, still dominated by PHEVs, and Volvo still delivering only PHEVs. They have started making BEV buses and even fielded a 62-bus order from Trondheim Norway, but a few dozen buses for future delivery is not breaking news anymore. A Swedish company has been working on EV-converting two ferries, slated to become the largest “EVs” in the world at present (there is one somewhat smaller e-ferry in service in Norway since 2015) – but that project seems to have hit delays.

2^nd place: Norway (2^nd), 54 points. Claim to fame: EV share continues to rise, now waiting for the buses (and trucks? And more ferries?) to come. And a retroactive gold medal!

Norway’s EV share (after adding LCVs and falsely-labeled “imports”) rose from 27% to 34%, 66k EVs delivered, a staggering amount for this nation of 5 million. Norway is still 3^rd in the world in EV sales by quantity, after China and the US. For countless EVs from around the world (eGolf, ZOE, Ioniq, Soul EV, even the Bolt), Norway is their top export market.  But still, the EV revolution has many fronts, and to stay ahead of the competition Norway needs to diversify its game. Indeed, as mentioned above some Norwegian cities have finally started ordering electric buses in large quantities in 2017.

They say the silver medal is the saddest one, and Norway has received it every year since the List’s inception. There are always comments from readers who feel Norway deserves better. So on this Olympic year I am making a happy announcement: hereby, Norway is retroactively granted a tie with the US for the 2014 gold medal. What, if they are still re-divvying the medals from Sochi why can’t I do it too? No, seriously, had I used any point-based system in 2014, Norway would have easily beaten the US, so a share of the gold is only fair. And this is likely the only way for Norway to touch the global #1 spot on this list, because it would take an EV-ecology of a completely different scale and breadth to try and catch up to China, as it keeps running away from the field..,

1^st place: China (1^st), 70 points. Claim to fame: all this, and more.

China started 2017 with 1-2 months of EV slowdown as the government required EV makers to re-certify, in order to close loopholes in the incentive system. But just like the previous 3 years, 2017 ended with a bang, market share rising from 1.45% to 2.1% and deliveries crossing 600k, nearly half of the global amount. Easily more than half if you add electric buses, where China is still orders of magnitudes beyond everyone else combined, despite a relatively down year (<100k new ones).

Everyone expected the annual global single-model EV sales record, set by Nissan Leaf in 2014 at 60k, to be broken in 2017 or 2018 by the Model 3. Then out of nowhere came the BAIC EC-series, a city car introduced late 2016 that looks like the Bolt but is a bit smaller with about half the range, and finished 2017 with 78k deliveries, including a record-shattering 15.7k-sales month in November. Now it should be counted as a favorite to win 2018 as well, easily breaking into six digits.

Also in November Shenzhen, a mega-city that sprouted near Hong Kong and is known as “China’s Silicon Valley”, announced that it has electrified its entire fleet of 16,000 buses.

And of course, China already makes and deploys electric trucks in various sizes; not semis though AFAIK, and precise numbers are hard to come by.

Wrap-up and Tidbits

If anyone can give China a fight for #1 it is likely Japan or the US, maybe Korea, but it will take far more determination and concerted efforts. Won’t happen for at least couple of years, because China ain’t waiting for anyone to catch up.

The middle of the Top 10 is tight: only 1.5 points separate 3^rd and 7^th place. Right below the Top 10 there’s a bit of a gap, and then six European nations with EV market shares between 1.7% and 2.6% crowd into the space between 32.5 and 35 points: two recent dropouts (UK and Netherlands) and four up-and-coming (Switzerland, Finland, Austria, Portugal). Given the current pace of progress, countries will need to set trends rather than follow them in order to separate from these packs.

This list does not account for electric two- and three-wheelers. The former in the shape of electric bicycles, have really taken off in some countries, first and foremost the very same China, where over 30 million e-bikes are apparently made and sold every year, ~90% of the global amount. I will be very surprised if most e-bikes sold elsewhere are not from China too. Add another wheel, and suddenly India (whose automakers drag their feet on EV development) takes center stage. Experts at India’s premier environmental research institute, CSE India, informed me that countless local shops and DIYer have EV-converted over a million auto-rickshaws over the past couple of years. Hopefully the trend continues.

Well, with that tidbit I probably lost my last reader. Till next year!