Global Top 20 November 2019

Models: Chinese models down, Chinese models up

The plugin market crisis has stabilized, with the registrations dropping 26% YoY in November, to some 177.000 units, with the subsidy-related sales drop in China keeping the market down. 

This time, both powertrains were down, and almost in the same proportion (-26% BEVs vs -25% PHEVs), but nevertheless, BEVs are still positive in the 2019 numbers (+35%), something that can't be said about PHEVs (-8%).

As a result of these drops, the PEV share in November was 2,2% last month, keeping the 2019 PEV share at 2,2% (1,6% for BEVs alone), maybe December can bring a slight increase in the final number?

Looking at the models ranking, the Tesla Model 3 continues to reign supreme, more than doubling the result of the runner-up, while the #2 BAIC EU-Series has enough distance to keep the silver medal safe throughout December, something that the BYD Yuan can't say, as the #4 Nissan Leaf is getting closer every month.

The first position changes happened at the end of the Top 5, with the tiny Baojun E-Series climbing to #5 and the BMW 530e/Le twins reaching #6, with the German luxury sedan becoming at the same time the Best Selling PHEV, surpassing the two times winner (2014 & '15) Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that is seeing the chance to win its third trophy slip through the fingers.

With a number of Chinese models having seen its sales dry up, there were changes happening as a consequence:

- The Toyota Prius PHEV and Tesla Model X jumped two positions each, to #11 and #12, respectively, with the Californian sports-SUV hitting a year-best off-peak performance (3.392 units) last month, so we could see it go after the Japanese hatchback in December, and maybe even climb another position in the end;

- Both the BYD Tang PHEV and Chery eQ are tied in #11, with the #13 Toyota Prius PHEV only 48 units behind;

- The Geely Emgrand EV was up to #16, and the Great Wall Ora R1 also climbed one position, to #18, but December could see it go down, because...

- The #20 Tesla Model S had its best off-peak performance of the year (2.067 units), so it could have a shot at the reaching the next two places, but the biggest threat is the rising star (5.538 units last month) GAC Aion S, #21 with 23.666 units, that is sure to join the ranking in December, with the question being where will it end: #19? #18? #17?

A final mention for the VW e-Golf, that might end the year in #13, which would be a great score for the German hatchback.

Interestingly, two of the Top 10 models in November (#5 GAC Aion S - 5.538 units & #7 SAIC MG eZS - 3.974 units) belong to models outside the ranking, so expect these two models to be strong candidates for a Top 20 presence next year.

Manufacturers: Tesla and GAC shine

This month Tesla pulled out its best off-peak month so far, so expect another record month in December, with the Palo Alto maker ending on a high note.

Thanks to an extended lineup, BMW had a good month, registering close to 15.000 units, a new year best, while SAIC had  also a strong month, thanks mainly to the Baojun E-Series and the MG eZS, allowing it to score 15.726 units, a new year best, allowing both makers to go after the #3 BAIC, that is losing charge. 

Toyota was up to #10, while Renault also climbed positions, in this case to #13, with the French maker reaching 4.561 deliveries, its best result since June, and with December set to see the Zoe return to regular sales levels and keep the K-ZE expansion continue, expect Renault to reach (near-)record numbers in the last month of the year.

But the real star in November was GAC, scoring a record performance for the second month in a row (6.048 units), allowing it to jump two positions, to #17, and December could see it climb another two spots to #15.  

Another Chinese brand with ambitions this year is the #21 Dongfeng (30.293 units in 2019), but the #20 Chevrolet is proving to be a strong adversary, so the 1.377 units that separate both, could be enough to keep the American brand in the Top 20.  

Global Top 20 October 2019

VW e-Golf: October's unlikely hero

Models: China drags PEV market down

The plugin market crisis has deepened, with the registrations this time dropping 28% YoY in October, to some 150.000 units, with the subsidy-related sales drop in China dragging the market down. 

In fact, if we remove China from the equation, plugins actually grew 3% YoY last month, with the most interesting fact being that the market was not pulled up by BEVs (-6% YoY), but by PHEVs (+18%), that in October had their first positive month this year, and the +18% YoY represented the highest growth rate for the technology since August 2018.

As a result of these drops, the PEV share in October was just 1,9% last month, dropping the 2019 PEV share to 2,2%, maybe the next two months will help the plugin market to recover and reach the 2,4% of June?

The climber of the month was the VW e-Golf, jumping 2 spots, to #15, with the veteran German hatchback beating its own record, with 3.817 units, an amazing feat in a model with a 5 year career, especially considering all the doom and gloom around it.

With a number of Chinese models having seen its sales dry up, one would think there would be more position changes, but only the e-Golf managed to climb positions, nevertheless, there are some interesting races to watch throughout the ranking:

- The #5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (-13% YoY) has the #6 Baojun E-Series and the #7 BMW 530e/Le twins less than 1.000 units behind, so the Japanese SUV will need to step up its game, if it wants to keep its position;

- Both the BYD Tang PHEV and Chery eQ are tied in #11, with the #13 Toyota Prius PHEV only 48 units behind;

- The #15 VW e-Golf recovered 1.888 units from the #14 Tesla Model X, being now only 1.158 units behind. The Tesla SUV will need to keep a close eye on the VW model;

- Finally, the #20 Tesla Model S will have to defend its position in the ranking from the #21 Chevrolet Bolt, that is less than 1.000 units behind. With the Tesla flagship scoring its lowest score since January 2014 (1.277 units), the Model S will need to step up its game, not only because of the Chevy Bolt, but also because the rising star GAC Aion S (18.128 units) is looking to get a Top 20 soon.

Manufacturers: Volvo and GAC shine

This month the crisis in the Chinese OEMs has gotten worse, with several brands (BYD, Geely, Chery, etc) dropping to levels of 18 months ago, but the registration drops have spreaded beyond China, starting by Tesla, that saw its deliveries drop 26% YoY.

Interestingly, of the three Tesla models, the only that has managed to grow was the Model X ugly duckling (+7% YoY), something that could be a telling tale for the Cybertruck, where after the initial shock, the design becomes more digestible, with sales growing over time.

Nissan also had a horrible month, registering just 5.225 units, its worst performance in 21 months...With no models to be launched in the short term, the Japanese carmaker needs to make some aggressive discounts/pricing, like Volkswagen is doing with the e-Golf, if it wants to be back in black. 

But not all is bad, with the new 330e and the new X5 PHEV helping the 530e/Le and i3 best sellers, the German maker saw its sales grow 6% last month, allowing it to be the runner-up in October, so BMW still has a shot at repeating the last year 4th spot.

But the real stars in October were Volvo, that registered its second record performance in a row, with 4.678 units, that jumped two positions, to #16, and it now has the #15 Great Wall in sight, should the Swedish carmaker continue to step up the pace, it should climb another position in November.

Even in China there are bright spots, with the #19 GAC profiting from the hot Aion S to beat its sales record, now set at 4,616 units. Expect it to surpass Changan and JAC soon, and it might even have a shot at bothering the #15 Great Wall, in December. 

Another Chinese brand with ambitions for this year is the #21 Dongfeng, that shortened the distance to the #20 Chevrolet in 471 units, with both brands now separated by just 790 units, the last place in the ranking is still pretty much open for discussion, just like the 7th spot of Geely, that will have a hard time to defend it from Volkswagen and Hyundai, and with the German carmaker expecting to have a strong end of the year, even the #6 Nissan will have to watch its back, if it wants to be safe from surprises.  

Global Top 20 September

Models: Tesla and BMW shine

After the historic August drop, registrations were again down in September, this time by 8% YoY, to some 183.000 units, mostly due to the subsidy-related drop in China, and the USA market is not helping too.

The worst news of the month was that BEVs were down, if only by 1%, possibly for the first time ever, but on the other hand, the PHEV crisis seems to be flattening out (only 23% down last month).

As a result, the PEV share stayed at 2,3% last month, inline with the 2019 PEV share of 2,3%, which itself is slightly lower than the record 2,4% it had in June. Maybe Q4 brings the needed uptick to put back the pluging share in record levels?

In the context of these dark clouds hanging over the PEV market, few models have reasons to celebrate, but nevertheless, the Tesla lineup had a positive month, not only the Model 3 had a near record performance, staying just 431 units of its June score (39.632 units), but the other two models also climbed positions, with the Model X jumping two positions, to #15, while the Model S flagship rejoined the table, in #20.

But the climber of the month was the BMW i3, shooting 4 spots, to #10, while another BMW continues on the rise, with the 530e/Le twins reaching #7, thanks to a record 6.127 units. With the #5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV some 1.700 units away, if the big Bimmer continues to step up the pace, it might be able to dethrone the Japanese SUV from the Best Selling PHEV throne.

Another model on the rise is the Toyota Prius PHEV, now up to #13, that is climbing positions thanks to the sales dry up of a few Chinese EVs.

Manufacturers: Tesla and BMW shine (x2)

September saw the leader Tesla reach another record month this year, with 49.821 units, while below it, we have a surprise, with BMW reaching the runner-up spot, with 14.289 units, a new year best, a score that was enough to beat the Chinese armada (BYD, BAIC and SAIC) that sits above it on the YTD table.

With the new 330e model landing last month, and the new X5 PHEV starting soon, the German maker should have a strong last quarter of the year, repeating a few more podium positions in the next three months, although it should be hard to recover the 4th spot from SAIC.

Another surprise is the rise of Nissan to #6, all thanks to the sales demise of Geely, something that #14 Renault is also benefitting, having surpassed three Chinese makers in a row.

Still, there was one Chinese OEM shining, with GAC profiting from the hot Aion S to rise to #19, thanks to 4.010 units.