France June 2016

Nice favorite rental-car?

 Slow down 

The French EV market had more than 3.400 registrations in June, a slight 9 units increase over June 2015, with the market still set to surpass the 45.000 units by year end.

The EV Share is down to 1.69%, 0.05% below the mark of the previous month, but still a significant departure from the 1.41% of 2015.

Looking at the monthly models ranking, we have a 100% BEV Top 5, the first time it happened since last January.

The Zoe continues to lead the way (as in the last 22 months...), followed by the Nissan Leaf (Up 35% YoY) and the Kangoo ZE, with the two surprises of the month taking the last two places, with the Tesla Model S in Fourth, with 131 units (One unit less than a year ago), and the Peugeot iOn in #5, with 127 units. 

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Renault Zoe	1.332
2	Nissan Leaf	397
3	Renault Kangoo ZE	196
4	Tesla Model S	131
4	Peugeot iOn	127

France is known for being a stable market, with little changes in the ranking, and June confirms that, one has to go down to the #11 to see a position change, with the Tesla Model S rising two positions to #11, all while the Porsche Cayenne PHEV reach #15 and the Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia twins (75 units, new record) reach #17.  

Looking at the brands ranking, Renault (#1 since 2011) continues to be the Master In Command, with 44%, followed at a distance by Nissan (14%) and BMW (8%).

Pl	France	June	2016	%	'15Pl
1	Renault Zoe	1.332	6.607	35	1
2	Nissan Leaf	397	2.474	13	3
3	Renault Kangoo ZE	196	1.285	7	2
4	BMW i3	99	687	4	8
5	Volkswagen Golf GTE	75	655	4	4
6	Peugeot iOn	127	652	3	9
7	Bolloré Blue Car	91	542	3	5
8	Volvo XC90 T8	74	503	3	N/A
9 10	Kia Soul EV Audi A3 e-Tron	96 60	492 436	3 2	13 6
11 12	Tesla Model S BMW X5 40e	131 71	413 373	2 2	10 20
13	Citröen C-Zero	73	371	2	15
14	Citröen e-Mehari	81	327	2	N/A
15	Porsche Cayenne Plug-In	46	257	1	12
16 17 18 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35	BMW 225xe Active Tourer Nissan e-NV200/Evalia  Peugeot Partner EV  Goupil   Renault Twizy e) BMW 330e Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Bolloré Blue Summer e) Volkswagen Passat GTE Mercedes C350e Volkswagen e-Up! Citröen Berlingo EV e) Volkswagen e-Golf Volvo V60 Plug-In BMW i8 Mitsubishi I-Miev Mercedes B250e Mercedes GLE500e Toyota Prius Plug-In Mercedes S500e Others	24 75 52 57 40 32 20 30 49 24 16 10 5 1 10 6 5 12 2 2 6	253 247 246 246 221 170 169 153 143 131 104 80 65 57 55 52 44 38 35 27 21	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	N/A 16 21 14 11 N/A 7 N/A 19 27 18 23 22 26 25 30 24 31 28  32
	TOTAL	3.427	18.631

Sources: Avere France, Automobile Propre

Netherlands June 2016

Will the facelifted Model S pursue with the previous success story?

Tesla Model S Back At #1

The hangover is far from over, with sales (899) down 66% YoY.

The EV Share was down 0.03% to 2.36%, far, far from the 9.6% of last year.

Looking at the monthly ranking, the Monthly Best Seller award went to the Tesla Model S, with 188 deliveries, down 32% YoY. Softening demand or production constraints? Mmmm...

The BMW 330e performed a record 148 units, ending the month in Second, with its stablemate 225xe Active Tourer also impressing (83 units, year best), in #4.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model S	188
2	BMW 330e	148
3	Nissan Leaf	85
4	BMW 225xe Active Tourer	83
5	Volkswagen Passat GTE	74

In the YTD ranking, there were a number of significant changes, the most important of all being the recovery of the YTD Best Seller Throne by the Tesla Model S, but with only 51 units separating ot from the Volvo XC90 T8, the dispute for #1 is far from over.

In another good month for BMW, the 225xe Active Tourer continues to climb in the ranking, now up one position to #6, at the expenses of the Mercedes C350e, while the i3 had its best month of the year in June, with 45 units, climbing with it one place to #8 and promising more climbs as the longer range versions arrive Dutch shores.

In an atypical year due to fiscal changes, the VW Golf GTE, runner-up last year with more than 8.000 registrations, has dropped once again in the ranking, now to #12, with only 97 units YTD, being inclusively surpassed by its all-electric brethren, the e-Golf, #10 with 104 sales...

Despite sales being on a much lower level than last year, there are two models racing their ICE competitors with success, the Tesla Model S (188 units), was Second in its class, bested only by the BMW 5-Series (226 units), while the BMW i8 (8 sales) has beaten competition like the Audi TT (6 units), or its own BMW 6-Series relative (6 sales), but the Bavarian sports car is still far from the sales level of the Porsche 911, that with 40 units registered last month, is still the Golden Standard in its class.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW has reached the leadership (22%, up 3%), displacing Volvo (21%) from #1, while Tesla remained in Third, with 19% share.

Pl	Netherlands	June	YTD	%	'15Pl
1 2	Tesla Model S Volvo XC90 T8	188 63	869 818	19 18	8 7
3	BMW 330e	148	570	12	25
4	Nissan Leaf	85	412	9	13
5 6 7 8 9 10	Volkswagen Passat GTE BMW 225xe Active Tourer Mercedes C350e BMW i3 * Renault Zoe Volkswagen e-Golf	74 83 58 45 12 21	347 255 238 131 113 104	8 6 5 3 2 2	6 17 5 12 14 28
11	Volvo V60 Plug-In	17	101	2	3
12	Volkswagen Golf GTE	7	97	2	2
13	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	14	96	2	1
14	Mercedes B250e	8	82	2	19
15	Volkswagen e-Up!	15	60	1	28
16	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	6	45	1	15
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 27 28 29 30 30 30	Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Audi A3 e-Tron BMW X5 40e Toyota Prius Plug-In BMW i8 Mercedes GLE500e Kia Soul EV Peugeot iOn Renault Twizy Renault Kangoo ZE Porsche Panamera Plug-In Ford C-Max Energi Mitsubishi I-Miev Mercedes S500e Smart Fortwo ED Audi Q7 e-Tron	2 8 14 14 8 5 1 2 1 1	44 43 35 28 26 24 18 12 12 9 8 6 4 1 1 1	1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	10 4 11 22 20 27 24 N/A 28 25 21 9 30 18 15 N/A
	TOTAL	899	4.610	100

* - 42 Bev + 3 Rex

Regular Hybrids + Plug-ins Ranking

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	332
2	Tesla Model S	188
3	Toyota Auris Hybrid	177
4	BMW 330e	148
5	Nissan Leaf	85

If we add regular hybrids to Plug-ins, Pure Electrics have recovered ground, with the Tesla Model S winning the Second place, while the Nissan Leaf climbed to Fifth.

Plug-in hybrids are also represented, with the BMW 330e reaching Fourth, while on the regular hybrids front, there are no surprises, with the two usual best sellers from Toyota, the Yaris and Auris, being present in First and Third, respectively.

Is it possible to go 100% EV?

"Is it possible to go 100% Electric?" - It was a question i made myself a few months back, as i wandered of the feasibility of that endeavor, having one electric car is easy, when you have a gas/diesel vehicle as a second choice for longer trips, but what about going all electric? 

To get the answer, i have started to register my family daily trips, based on the assumption that we would have a smaller car, for commutes and other short distances, in this case the car chosen would be a Renault Zoe, while for longer distances, the choice would necessarily be a larger car, with a longer range (Think Chevrolet Bolt, Leaf II), with the hypothetical choice being the Tesla Model 3.

To keep things safe in terms of range and usability, despite the Zoe having a 240 kms NEDC range, we would only consider it as having 120 kms range and the Model 3 some 250 kms, that way we would always would have a significant amount of extra-range for unexpected situations.

All trips were classified in one of four categories: 

* Commutes (20 kms or less);

* Small trips (Between 21 to 120 kms);

* Average trips (120 to 250 kms);

* Long trips (More than 250 kms).

The first two were considered suitable for both cars, while the larger ones were only considered fit for the Model 3.

Having registered the daily trips of our current ICE cars (One city car, other suited for longer trips) over a period of little more than three months, these were some conclusions we came to have:

City car "Zoe" 

- 81% of the trips were commutes, usually going to work, groceries, or other small trips around the neighborhood;

- 19% were small trips, usually going to traffic-congested Lisbon or other places where it would be hard to get easy parking;

The conclusion is the surprisingly high number of commutes, which is where the electric car feels most at ease, with no trips beyond 120 kms being made and no need for charging on the road. 

Is it possible to have an EV as a city car? YES, for my needs it is more than enough.

Larger car "Model 3"

- 22% of the travelling with the larger car were commutes, 48% were small trips, 22% average trips and only 9% were long trips;

With more diversified type of travelling, the Model 3 has a more challenging role to play, if commutes and small trips are nothing to scare a 250 kms range car, for average trips (121 - 250 kms), you have to make some calculations on the actual kilometers you will make on the trip and if there is fast charging along the road, Just in Case. 

The most challenging part of the equation are the longer, over 250 kms, travels.

We have made three and here are their (short) stories:

1 - Touring inland during one day, with 512 kms made. The first leg took 247 kms, mostly made on highway or mountain roads, at this stage the Model 3 would presumably be close to running empty of juice, but nothing to fear as there was a EVSE close and while we were touring the town, the car would have time to recharge just enough range to get into the Chademo Charger (Within a service station), little less than 100 kms away in the returning trip. Having reached the Chademo charger, we then would have to wait 45 minutes to an hour for the car battery to fill up (Or close), driving the remaining trip home without any range-anxiety. Unnecessary stops: One, at the Chademo charger/service station.

2 - Visiting Folks and family, 260 kms made. With the folks house some 230 kms away, that would't count as long-range-endangering-trip, but with other stops projected in the same day and part of the trip made on the highway, it could be a close call. Time to be resourceful then. While we were having lunch and putting conversation in place, the Model 3 would also have time to recover some juice in the domestic socket of my parents garage, enough to give those 20-30 kms needed for the next stops. Unnecessary stops: None, just needed to ask for a plug while the car was resting.

3 - Touring North, 321 kms made in day one. With a Chademo Charger (In the same service station as in 1) somewhere in the middle of the trip, we stopped to fill up the car during some 45 minutes, doing the rest of the travelling without range concerns. Unnecessary stops: One, at the Chademo charger/service station. 

Summarizing, 89% of all trips could have been done by an electric car like the Renault Zoe without a sweat, with that percentage growing to 97% with the Tesla Model 3.

Of the remaining 3%, they were also feasible, but they would involve charging outside your home and depend on Fast Charging and the waiting periods that come with them. Many people, like myself, would see it as minor inconveniences, but for others it would be a deal breaker.

A small note, during this period, i have realized that the two electric cars, one household type of families, might have a constraint: There will be times when both cars need overnight charging and if you usually only have one garage place and the other stays out, it could become tricky to charge both at the same time...  

Fast Charging Race - May 2016

A few months back, i counted the population of EV's with Fast Charging capabilities, now it's time to update the count.

The Race

            Number of EV's sold per type of Fast Charger

Year	Chademo	CCS	Tesla
2011	33.301
2012	38.852		2.721
2013	72.701	3.391	22.442
2014	100.280	25.521	31.655
2015 2016	105.504 42.745	45.177 13.543	50.567 21.677

Chademo is once again the leader, helped by the Second Life of the Nissan Leaf, continuing to sell more than CCS and Tesla combined, with CCS dropping due to the slowdown of sales of the BMW i3 and VW e-Golf.

2017 and 2018 will be all important years in the race between Chademo and CCS, as the Nissan Leaf will defend its lead over the CCS-compatible Chevrolet Bolt, Ford plug-ins and the German new BEV's.

A curious take on this Fast Charging standards race is given by the Hyundai-Kia Group, if the Kia Soul EV is playing by the Chademo team, the new Hyundai Ioniq EV has joined the adversary team...A change of mind by the Group or are they playing it safe, having players in both teams?

Finally, the Tesla SC is not intended to fight the other two, but as with its vehicles, the ever-expanding network and top-of-the-range charging abilities, it has carved a special (And desired) place in the market, a bit like Apple has done in the software world. 

Top EV Automotive Groups - May 2016

In the beginning of the year, i've published the 2015 EV sales divided by Automotive Groups, let's see how the ranking is after the first five months of 2016.

		Sales '16	%	Total Sales	%
	Renault-Nissan	36.729	15	328.074	22
	BYD	34.008	14	121.664	8
	VW (VAG)	21.852	9	94.330	6
	Tesla	21.677	9	130.924	9
	BMW	17.117	7	69.146	5
	Mitsubishi	15.614	7	150.580	10
	Geely	12.881	5	79.050	5
	GM	10.729	5	122.560	8

Comparing with the 2015 and all-time numbers:

- This year the Renault-Nissan Alliance is still in the leadership, but emerging BYD (14% share now vs 11% in 2015) is becoming increasingly menacing, it looks to be just a question of time until the Chinese Group becomes the Best Selling OEM when it comes to plug-ins;

- Another significant event to those less familiar with EV Sales, is that Tesla is selling as many plug-ins as the whole Volkswagen Group (Including, VW, Audi, Porsche...), although VAG is still new to the game, the fact is that it has lost 2% share regarding last year, while Tesla share has been stable throughout the years, surfing the EV wave at around 9 to 10% share;

- BMW is expanding its plug-in portfolio and it shows, with a steady climb, having surpassed Mitsubishi, which has suffered from a number of ailments (Emissions scandal, ageing BEV lineup, fiscal changes in key markets...), dropping 2% share regarding 2015, a poor performance for what it is still the historical Second largest EV Maker. Having a hard time to keep up with the times, Mitsu?

- Geely is stable in #7, with Kandi, Geely and Volvo performing ok in their respective price classes.

- General Motors has recovered some ground, rising to the #8 position, thanks to the Volt II, although it is still an embarrassing place to be for a OEM that once was among the pioneers in 2010/11 and inclusively won the Best Seller crown in 2012;

- A word of mention to the following positions, with BAIC in #9, Ford in #10 (4% share, below the historical average of 5%), SAIC in #11 and Daimler Group, of Mercedes and Smart, still languishing in #12, selling a third of the eternal rival BMW...Merc has a lot to recover. 

- Finally, looking at sales by OEM's country of origin, Chinese automakers are increasing their lead, having by now 36% of the market, up 5% over 2015 and 13%(!) over the historical record. Expect this lead to increase even further during the year, possibly reaching 50% share by year end.

Italy June 2016

The Model S is becoming something of a phenomenon within the Italian EV Market

 
 Renault Zoe Shines in Slow Market

The Italian EV market continues stagnant, with June Sales at around 200 sales, down 22% regarding the same period of 2015, with YTD sales back to red, down 2% YoY.

Looking at the models ranking, the big news were the 26 units of the Renault Zoe, its best performance this year and the first time it won a Monthly Best Seller trophy in 2016, allowing it to jump three positions to #9, which is still a discrete position for the Second Best Selling EV last year.

Below in the ranking, the highlights go for two models that have little in common apart from the fact that both are BEV's: The Tesla Model S is experiencing its best year ever in Italy, with 21 units delivered in June, while the veteran Citröen C-Zero continues to impress, with 19 sales, allowing it to continue in Fourth, its highest place in the ranking since the #3 won back in 2012...

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW is in the lead, with 32% Share (Down 1%), followed by Nissan (19%, down 2%), while Volkswagen (14%) is stable in the Third position.

Pl	Italy	June	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	15	277	19	1
2 3 4	BMW 330e e) BMW 225xe Act. Tourer Citröen C-Zero	15 20 19	203 183 114	14 13 8	N/A N/A 6
5 6	Volkswagen Golf GTE Tesla Model S	24 21	111 103	8 7	5 8
7 8	Renault Twizy e) Volkswagen Passat GTE e)	20 5	102 64	7 4	4 N/A
9 10	Renault Zoe Mercedes B250e	26 2	52 42	4 3	2 10
11 12 13 14 15 16	BMW X5 40e   e) Volvo V60 Plug-In e) Mitsu. Outlander PHEV e) Volkswagen e-Up! BMW i8    Peugeot iOn	5 5 1	40 36 30 27 23 16	3 2 2 2 2 1	11 16 7 12 13 22
17	Audi A3 e-Tron e)	5	15	1	17
18 19 20	BMW i3 Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Smart Fortwo ED	1 2	12 5 3	1 0 0	3 17 9
21	Volkswagen e-Golf	1	2	0	19
22 22	Renault Kangoo ZE Ford Focus Electric		1 1	0 0	N/A 25
	TOTAL	187	1.462	100

e) Estimate

Source: greenstart.it; unrae.it

Note: I'm going for vacations for a week, but EVS is not stopping, during this Summer Chilling period, there will be three new articles, one reporting sales by Automotive Groups, the Second updating the population of EV's with Fast Charging capabilities, while the Third has the following title: "Is it possible to go 100% Electric?", a practical case based on my own driving patterns.

Japan May 2016

Nissan Up, Mitsubishi Down

The Japanese EV is up 4% YoY, with some 1.200 units, placing the EV Share at 0,6%.

The 30kWh-rejuvenated Nissan Leaf continues to be the main driving force, with 805 units, doubling last year sales and performing its best month of May ever.

On the other hand, the Mitsubishi emissions scandal has taken its toll over the Outlander PHEV, registering only 174 units, its worst result in three years.

Pl	Japan	May	2016	%	Pl '15
1	Nissan Leaf	805	8.084	63	2
2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	174	3.497	27	1
3	BMW i3 e)	100	500	4	4
4	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia e)	50	250	2	7
5	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev	20	131	1	8
6 7 8 9 10	Tesla Model S e) Toyota Prius Plug-In e) Mitsubishi I-Miev Mit. Minicab Miev Truck BMW i8 e)	25 5 10 3 5	125 100 96 38 25	1 1 1 0 0	6 3 5 9 10
	TOTAL	1.197	12.846	100

e) Estimate