USA October 2016

As if the P90D wasn't fast enough...

Time to Breathe Edition

With over 10.000 registrations, the first time October ended in the five digit area, the upward sales trend continues, with YoY sales up 9%, leaving the YTD EV Share slightly down to 0.82%, the US market is headed for a record year, with December probably surpassing the 20.000 units landmark, as by that time the presumable hot sellers Chevrolet Bolt and Toyota Prius Prime will land.

With Tesla taking the usual time to breathe after the last month of the quarter stampede, this time aggravated by the new Autonomous Drive hardware addition, the Best Seller of the Month trophy went to the surefooted Chevrolet Volt, which won its fourth Best Seller title this year (Basically, whenever the Model S takes the time to relax, the Volt jumps in to replace it). 

The Volt is something of a Regularity Champ, scoring between 1.800 to 2.200 units seven times out of the last eight months, GM is probably happy with it as it is, but the question for the future will be how the Volt and Bolt will coexist. 

Looking below, we see some changes, with the Ford Fusion recovering momentarily the Third Spot, while two Mercedes deserve a mention, the 250e scored its best result in seven months, with 58 units, climbing to #20, tied with the dying Cadillac ELR, but the surprise of the month belonged to its S550e larger brother, registering a record 174 units and jumping to #22, while at the same time surpassing its direct competitor, the Porsche Panamera PHEV.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (28%, down 2%) is comfortable in the leadership, while Chevrolet (18%) decreased slightly its advantage over the Third Placed Ford (17%, up 1%).

In October, 103 Toyota Mirai's were registered, that placed the monthly and YTD share at 0.01%, with the Toyota product trailing the Hyundai FCEV model by 813 to 39 units.

Pl	USA	Oct.	YTD	%
1	Tesla Model S e)	865	20.917	18
2	Chevrolet Volt	2.191	18.517	16
3	Ford Fusion Energi	1.372	13.022	11
4	Tesla Model X e)	665	12.931	11
5	Nissan Leaf	1.412	10.650	9
6	BMW i3	442	6.205	5
7	Ford C-Max Energi	571	5.947	5
8	BMW X5 40e	406	4.990	4
9	Fiat 500e	345	3.790	3
10	Audi A3 e-Tron	348	3.297	3
11	Volkswagen e-Golf	407	3.189	3
12 13 14 15	Chevrolet Spark EV Hyundai Sonata PHEV Por. Cayenne PHEV Volvo XC90 T8	260 255 138 142	2.979 2.485 1.780 1.650	3 2 1 1
16 17 18 19 20 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29	Kia Soul EV BMW i8 Ford Focus Electric Smart Fortwo ED Cadillac ELR Mercedes B250e Mercedes S550e BMW 330e Por. Panamera PHEV Bolloré Blue Car Mercedes GLE550e Mitsubishi I-Miev Toyota Prius Plug-In Porsche 918	190 199 73 43 3 58 174 92 38 19 4	1.352 1.288 734 570 526 526 427 415 302 160 118 86 52 1	1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
	TOTAL	10.712	118.906	100

 e) Estimate

Source: insideevs.com; Hybridcars.com

Before The Flood - The Film, Renewables and EV's

While watching "Before the Flood", for a moment i had a sense of deja vu, as in some points it reminded me of another film, the 2006 An Inconvenient Truth,  excluding narrative and cinematology (Actual word) details, the fact is that the essence of both is the same: 

Climate Change and urgence to cope with it.

Well, after 10 years, has anything changed?

To answer that, we have to rewind time even further.

1. Kyoto Protocol

Following the 90's global warming concerns, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, with the objective to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, with 192 countries currently now part of it. Only...It is non-binding for most countries, and also the USA, which accounted for 36% of emissions in 1990, signed the agreement but hasn't put it into practice, in fact things got worse in 2011, when Canada, Japan and Russia stated they would not take on Kyoto targets anymore.

In short, a lot of good intentions, but not a lot done in practice.

2. The Lost Years

The end of the Second Age of the Electric Car, in 2002, signaled also a slowdown in the cost reduction of Renewables, in fact we can say that the following 6 to 7 years after 2002 were lost to Green Tech, because of a hostile Political and Economical environment.   

 3. Back to Business

The year 2009 signaled a significant drop in Solar Power cost while at the same time the Third Age of the Electric Car started, leading to the point where we are now, Renewables and Electric Cars are the new Cool (Kudos Tesla) and ready to go into the mainstream business.

"Without time", some would say, as the four hottest years on record all happened after 2009, and 2015 was the hottest year ever, with the global climate giving its first signs of significant change, time seems in deed to be running out.

And that leads us to...

4. USA - The Lesser Evil Choice

Unlike what happened in the past, think around the year 2000, when the USA were a leader in Green Energy Tech, now that role belongs to Renewable Superpower China (#1 on EV's too), the choice US voters will make in a few days will still have an impact on the success of we how will tame Climate Change.

Regardless of what one might think regarding of each candidate (How did they managed to choose so poorly?), the fact is that US citizens have to choose between one of them, and this useful article helps to have an insight of what the outcome will be if one or the other gets elected regarding Climate Change.

Spain October 2016

Vans Edition

The EV market in Spain registered 333 sales, down 39% YoY, and although YTD sales are up, with the EV Share at 0.36%, the fact is that the local market is cooling off as of lately, with buyers waiting for the new MOVEA incentives scheme to start, next January.

The Best Seller Of The Month was the Nissan Leaf, with 58 units, of which 20 of them were 2-seat Commercial Vans, delivered to the Seur company. 

This deal underlines the local importance of LCV's, also known as Vans, last month the Top 3 was heavily influenced by this this particular type of EV, with 35% of the #1 Leaf deliveries being 2-seater Vans, the Second Placed Renault Zoe also relying heavily on the LCV version (40%, or 23 units were 2-seaters), while the Third Placed Renault Kangoo ZE had 47 deliveries (Year best), all 100% Vans. In fact, 36% of all EV registrations last month were Vans...

In the YTD ranking, the Nissan Leaf took advantage of a weak month of the Outlander PHEV (17 units, worst result of the year), to reach closer at #1, with 18 units separating both, anything can happen in the race for the leadership.

The BMW i3 dropped two positions to #5, with the beneficiaries being the Renault Zoe, now #3, and the Renault Kangoo ZE, Fourth.

Another BMW dropping in the ranking, was the 225xe Act. Tourer, dropping to #13, to the benefit of yet another Renault, this time being the Twizy.

Final mention for the 5 Tesla Model X deliveries, which together with the 3 Model S registered last month was the best month ever for Tesla in Spain, with official Tesla presence in Spain soon to be a reality, expect the American manufacturer to finally take off.

On the manufacturers ranking, Nissan is in the leadership (21%), but Renault (20%, up 1%) is closing in and the Third Placed BMW (16%, down 1%) is dangerously close.

Pl	Spain	Oct.	YTD'16	%	'15Pl
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	17	512	15	1
2 3 4 5 6 7	Nissan Leaf ** Renault Zoe *** Renault Kangoo ZE BMW i3 * Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Smart Fortwo ED	58 57 47 31 25	494 314 303 292 242 155	14 9 9 8 7 4	3 4 5 7 6 2
8 9 10	Volvo XC90 T8 BMW X5 40e Volkswagen Golf GTE	2 2 5	109 104 102	3 3 3	N/A 15 11
11	Volkswagen Passat GTE	12	96	3	N/A
12 13	Renault Twizy  BMW 225xe Active Tourer	7 2	82 79	2 2	8 N/A
14	Kia Soul EV	7	73	2	10
15	Mercedes GLE500e	9	53	2	N/A
16 17 18 19 19 21 22 23 24 24 26 27 27 29 29 29 31 31 31	Porsche Cayenne Plug-In BMW 330e Piaggio Porter EV Peugeot Partner EV Audi A3 e-Tron BMW i8 Citröen C-Zero Tesla Model S Mercedes C350e Citröen Berlingo EV Volkswagen e-Golf Citröen e-Mehari Audi Q7 e-Tron Peugeot iOn Mercedes B250e Mercedes GLC350e Volkswagen e-Up! Volvo V60 Plug-In Mercedes S500e Others	7 6 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 5 7 2 1 2 7	52 48 45 38 38 34 28 23 22 22 20 19 19 14 14 14 6 6 6 19	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1	13 N/A 12 22 9 14 24 23 26 29 16 N/A N/A 27 20 N/A 18 20 19
	TOTAL	333	3.496	100

Source: forococheselectricos.com

* - 25 Bev +6 Rex
** - 38 Pass + 20 LCV
*** - 34 Pass + 23 LCV

Sweden October 2016

Sweden's plug-in favorite

VW Passat GTE Thor-Solid Leader

We start the month with Sweden, the local EV market registered 1.228 units, an improvement of 62% over the same period last year, with the EV Share hitting once again record heights, at 3.4% and YTD registrations entering for the first time ever the five digit area, with 10.873 units.

Looking at the monthly models ranking, the VW Passat GTE increased its already impressive record by scoring 474 units (And 32% of all Passat sales), followed by the Outlander PHEV, with 182 registrations, representing 74% of all of the Japanese SUV sales.

The impressive performance of the Passat GTE is starting to make itself noticed in the global ranking, as the record 474 sales would place it at #12 in the general models ranking, and #3 in the Midsize/D-Segment, only behind the ICE Passat and the Volvo S/V60 series.

Looking at the remaining seats of the Top 5, the Nissan Leaf was a surprising Third, with 78 units, its best result in six months (Stock clearance?), followed by the usual Volvo plug-ins.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Volkswagen Passat GTE	474
2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	182
3	Nissan Leaf	78
4	Volvo V60 Plug-In	74
5	Volvo XC90 T8	72

Looking at the YTD ranking, the leader Passat GTE is in a league of its own, with 3.359 units and 31% share, the German midsize model has already beaten the YTD record for a single model (3.297 units, set by the Outlander PHEV last year) with two months still to go, while distancing itself from the runner-up by some 2.000 units(!). With this demonstration of power, the Passat GTE seems destined to reach some 4.000/4.500 units by December, 31st.

There were little changes in the ranking, with the VW Golf GTE climbing one position to #8, the Tesla Model X up one position too, now at #12, while the Mercedes C350e went up to #17.


On the EV manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (36%, up 1%) had a good month, cementing the leadership, followed by Volvo (16%, down 1%) and BMW (12%) in Third.

On the Fuel Cell front, there were a record 5 Hyundai ix35 FCEV registered, pulling the South Korean model to a grand total of 13 units, adding the 2 units of the Terminator Mirai, we have 15 Fuel Cells registered this year, making it 0,005% of the total market. 

Pl	Sweden	Oct.	YTD '16	%	'15Pl
1 2 3	Volkswagen Passat GTE Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Volvo V60 Plug-In	474 182 74	3.359 1.276 981	31 12 9	11 1 4
4	Volvo XC90 T8	72	764	7	12
5	Nissan Leaf	78	702	6	3
6	Tesla Model S	35	655	6	2
7	BMW 330e	53	493	5	N/A
8 9 10 11	Volkswagen Golf GTE BMW i3 * Renault Zoe BMW X5 40e	45 16 18 34	369 367 310 203	3 3 3 2	5 7 6 16
12 13 14	Tesla Model X BMW 225xe Active Tourer Renault Kangoo ZE	35 18 10	174 170 130	2 2 1	N/A N/A 14
14	Audi A3 e-Tron	15	130	1	8
16	Volkswagen e-Golf	7	107	1	10
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 33	Mercedes C350e Volkswagen e-Up! Kia Optima PHEV Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia ** Peugeot Partner EV Toyota Prius Plug-In Audi Q7 e-Tron Renault Twizy Kia Soul EV Porsche Cayenne Plug-In BMW i8 Mercedes B250e Mercedes GLE500e Mercedes GLC350e BMW 740e Porsche Panamera Plug-In Mitsubishi I-Miev Mercedes S500e Others	17 6 3 8 11 2 4 2 1 1 2 3 3 2	103 95 94 75 47 45 43 37 28 26 22 15 13 12 9 4 3 3 9	1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	17 13 N/A 9 24 15 N/A 18 19 N/A 20 21 27 N/A N/A 26 N/A 24
	TOTAL	1.228	10.873	100

* - 16 Rex + 0 Bev

** - 2 pass + 1 lcv

Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids

Pl	Model	Oct.
1	Volkswagen Passat GTE	474
2	Toyota Auris Hybrid	406
3	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	201
4	Mitsu. Outlander PHEV	182
5	Kia Niro	150

If we combine October sales of regular hybrids with plug-ins, the VW Passat GTE and the Outlander PHEV are the plug-in representatives, with the Volkswagen plug-in outselling regular hybrids and reaching the Number One spot, while the Outlander PHEV ended in Fourth.

As for regular hybrids, the Toyota big sellers ended in Second (Auris) and Third (Yaris), while the Kia Niro Hybrid registered 150 units last month and is becoming a frequent customer of the ranking.

Source: bilsweden.se

Five years Ago...September 2011

These were the pioneers to the current EV Scene

Sometimes we forget how fast the EV Market is evolving, while there are times when we get frustrated that things are not growing faster and a real impact on the Global Automotive market is still years ahead, if we look back five years, we will find a very different scenery, both regarding Models, but especially in Volumes...

This was the YTD Top 5 in September 2011:

1. Nissan Leaf - 16.588 units;
2. Mitsubishi I-Miev - 6.429;
3. Chevrolet Volt - 6.282;
4. Chery QQ3 EV - 1.444;
5. Smart Fortwo ED - 883;

Several things come to mind:

- The market was much more concentrated, the leader Nissan Leaf had some 40% the total market, while the Top 3 owned 75% on the market;

 - The only survivor in the current 2016 Top 10 ranking is the Nissan Leaf, while the Gen 1 Volt ended its career last year, with the Gen. 2 following on its predecessor successful career, the remaining models are still available, but are either at the end of their career (Smart), irrelevant (Chery) or being surpassed by more substantial EV's (I-Miev family);

 - While the current Top 5 is diversified, with one high end sedan (Model S), two SUV's (Outlander PHEV and Qin) and two compacts (C-Segment for Euro-speakers), back in the day, the same two compacts were joined by three tiny city cars, which underlined the idea that many had then, that EV's were little more than glorified golf carts. Who wanted "real" family cars, capable to haul the loved ones and respective stuff, were left with few choices;

 - The real difference is in the sales numbers, which speak volumes of how far we have come, we can say that we are now registering twice as much in one month (77k in September) as in the first 9 months of 2011. For example, the September performance of the Model S (8k), would be enough to reach Second Place in 2011.

 Talking about these models career:

 - The Leaf is at over 240.000 units by now, being the most popular EV in the World, so one can only classify it as a success;

 - The Mitsubishi I-Miev family, including the Citröen C-Zero and Peugeot iOn, is currently at 38k units, could be classified as OK selling, rather as a success, but currently it is getting long in the tooth and only a low, low price can help it find new buyers;

 - As for the First Generation Chevrolet Volt , the roughly 100.000 units produced (Including the European Ampera) did the job of setting the first stone on the GM e-mobility plan without losing money, but GM could have done so much better with this car...

 - The Chery EV (27k) and Smart ED (19k) ultimately were handicapped by their automakers limited ambitions, especially in the case of Smart.

Fast Charging - September 2016

2016* Update

Following on the original article, here is an update to the table:

            Number of EV's sold by type of Fast Charging protocol

Year	Chademo	CCS	Tesla
2011	33.301
2012	38.852		2.721
2013	72.701	3.391	22.442
2014	100.280	25.521	31.655
2015 2016	108.680 68.394	45.273 29.715	50.567 54.033

As is possible to see, Chademo still has the lead, but growth has stalled since 2015, while CCS this year is being hampered by the fact that brands behind it are focused on plug-in hybrids, where they don't include fast-charging.

2017 and 2018 will be all important years in the race between Chademo and CCS, as the Nissan Leaf will defend Chademo's lead over the CCS-compatible Chevrolet Bolt and the new wave of European and South-Korean BEV's.

Finally, while the Tesla SC is not intended to fight the other two, the truth is that, unlike the softening sales of the other two standards, the strong sales of the Tesla brand has allowed it already to surpass last year result, with the ever-expanding network, top-of-the-range charging abilities and the undisclosed number of Model 3 units adding to the current portfolio of models, expect the Tesla SC to be a serious candidate for the best selling fast charging standard in the next couple of years.