Norway March 2019

Tesla Model 3 leads the BEV army in a historic month

Last month, BEVs doubled registrations YoY, pushing the overall market up (+28%), despite every other fuel dropping at least 20%, which lead to a record BEV (58%) and PEV (69%) shares, with the Tesla Model 3 deliveries going through the roof in March, with 5,315 registrations, a new all-time record for any nameplate in Norway, whatever the fuel. 

In this context, the current 61% PEV share in 2019 should grow to some 70% PEV share this year, with peak months possibly reaching 80%. 

The fuels mix is showing BEVs as the standard choice (58%), while every other fuel is falling significantly, like petrol dropping to 12% share (20% a year ago), or diesel being down to 10% (16% last year). The time when diesel sales are in single digits is getting nearer by the day. 

So, this is what disruption looks like…

Looking at last month Top Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 broke all possible records, with 5,315 units, being followed by the #2 VW e-Golf and the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that is currently the only plug-in hybrid selling in significant volumes, having beaten in March the all-time sales record for PHEVs, with 810 registrations. Maybe because it is one of the few PHEVs that does not have a strong direct competitor on the BEV field? 

Outside the podium, the BMW delivered 784 i3's, being the nameplate best result since November 2016, while the Audi e-Tron jumped to the 5th spot, with 680 deliveries, a new personal best.

Looking at the 2019 ranking, we have a new leader, with the Tesla Model 3 benefiting from the deliveries tsunami to jump to the leadership, with the Californian already doubling registrations of the #2 VW e-Golf. 

I guess Tesla can already start to prepare the Best Seller party on new years eve, as both trophies (model and manufacturer) should go to Palo Alto, California.

Elsewhere, a new wave of BEVs are stealing the show, with several models hitting record numbers, like the Jaguar i-Pace registering 442 units, Kia Niro EV delivering 187 units, the Hyundai Kona EV (331 units), and finally the Audi e-Tron (680), that has jumped 9 spots to…#9. 

In the midst of the BEV takeover (10 BEVs among the Top 11), one of the few PHEVs to escape the doom and gloom of its category was the Volvo V60 PHEV, that joined the Top 20, at #18, thanks to 165 registrations, the nameplate best result since 2017.

Finally, the Tesla Model S rejoined the Top 20, in #16, profiting from the last-month-of-quarter peak, although at the same time last year, the Tesla flagship had delivered 814 units (676 in March)…

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is the new leader (30%), now being followed by the previous leaders Volkswagen and BMW (both with 11%), while Hyundai (9%) is leading a pack of brands (Nissan, Mitsubishi, Volvo…) that is trying to catch up the German makers.

If the 2019 title seems already attributed, in 2020 i guess only Volkswagen will have a shot at displacing Tesla from the lead, and assuming the ID hatchback production ramp up goes smoothly.

Hard times for Tesla's competition…

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

With the PEV share at 69%, the plug-in market continues to merge with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have 9 BEVs in the Top 10, with only 1 PHEV (Mitsu Outlander PHEV, in #3), in the Top 10, while the best selling HEV (Toyota Yaris Hybrid, 248 units) was only #12, with this being the first time the Top 10 was made only by pluggable vehicles.

For how long will the Mitsubishi resist the never-ending BEV wave?

Denmark March 2019

Tesla Model 3 and the Koreans

After a memorable 2018, where PEV sales almost tripled, sales continue going through the roof this year, with 4,289 units so far, placing the 2019 PEV share at 3%, not only a significant jump regarding the 2018 score (2%), but also well above the absolute record (2.3%), set in 2015.

Regarding last year, BEVs recovered significant ground, now being responsible for 47% of plugin sales, much better than the 32% won last year. 

This recent uptick in BEV sales is thanks to the addition of three new models, with the Tesla Model 3 jumping to 2nd place in the 2019 ranking, while being the Best Seller in March, whil the Hyundai Kona EV is #4, with 208 units, and the just-landed Kia Niro EV is now #6, with 119 deliveries.

Despite the Tesla Model 3 thundering arrival, the Kia Niro PHEV is still the leader in the YTD ranking, underlining the an interesting feature of this market, as 5 out of the Top 6 models come from Korea.

In the Manufacturers ranking, last year leader Kia continues to be the Best Selling brand (22%), with Tesla and Hyundai, both with 9% share, filling the remaining podium places.

Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition

Pl	Model	2019 sales
1	VW Passat	364
2	Tesla Model 3	306
3	Mercedes C-Class	270
4	BMW 3-Series	203
5	Volvo S/V60	200

One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?

The answer is now being written, comparing the Model 3 with the competition, its 306 deliveries in March allowed it to beat every competitor in its category.

But looking at the total Q1 registrations, the Tesla Model 3 was 2nd, behind the VW Passat, in the future expect the Model 3 to jump ahead soon, although the new PHEV versions of the Volvo S/V60, VW Passat and BMW 3-Series could boost their sales and race the Californian for the leadership. 

France March 2019

Tesla Model 3 jumps to #2

The French PEV passenger car market registered 6,136 registrations in March, up 14% YoY, with a big portion of this growth coming from the Tesla Model 3, with 1,153 deliveries last month, the best result ever for a nameplate not called "Renault Zoe".

This result kept the 2019 PEV share at 2.6%, with BEVs alone having 1.9% share.

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the Renault Zoe sales dropped 32% last month, to 1,536 units (the Peugeot e-208 shadow is starting to be felt…), while this month main news came in 2nd place, with the Tesla Model 3 reaching 1,153 units, if those not familiar with this market might feel this is not a disruptive result, after all the Californian remained below the leader Zoe, this event in France is like the Audi e-Tron jumping straight into #2 on the US PEV market. 

Elsewhere, the usual silver medalist Nissan Leaf this time had to be contented with the last place of the podium, with 455 units, its best performance in the last 8 months, while the Kia Niro EV was #4, with 299 deliveries, a new personal best. 

Another interesting event was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV reaching the 5th spot, thanks to 258 deliveries, beating the current PHEV Best Seller (Volvo XC60 PHEV, 223 units).   

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Renault Zoe	1,536
2	Tesla Model 3	1,153
3	Nissan Leaf	455
4	Kia Niro EV	299
5	Mitsu. Outlander PHEV	258

In a market known for its stability, this time there were a number of changes in the top positions, with the Tesla Model 3 jumping to the runner-up spot, while the Kia Niro EV was up one position, to #5.

The PHEV race is warming up, as 42 units now separate the #4 Volvo XC60 PHEV, and the #6 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, two midsize SUVs. 

Interestingly, the 7 best selling PHEVs are either SUVs or Crossovers, while on the BEV side, 8 out of the Top 11 models are regular cars.

On the second half of the ranking, both Land Rover yachts SUVs hit record numbers, allowing the Range Rover Sport PHEV toclimb one spot, to #11.

Underlining Kia's good moment in France, the Niro PHEV registered 115 units, its best result in 15 months.

We welcome two new models on the Top 20, although only one of them, the Audi e-Tron, is a fresh face, while the other, the BMW 225xe Active Tourer, is a familiar name in this ranking. 

In the brands ranking, Renault (29%, down 3%), continues in the leading position, but has lost a significant share of the market, while Tesla (12%) jumped to the 2nd spot, dropping  Volvo (9%, down 1%) to #3, and kicking Nissan (8%) out of the podium. 

Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition

Pl	Model	2019 sales
1	Peugeot 508	2,839
2	Mercedes C-Class	2,118
3	Renault Talisman	1,782
4	Tesla Model 3	1,554
5	Mercedes E-Class	1,378

One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?

The answer is now being written, comparing the Model 3 French deliveries in its second month on the market, the 1,153 deliveries allowed it to beat every competitor in its category, with the #2 Renault Talisman ending the month with 1,020 units.

But looking at the total Q1 registrations, the Tesla Model 3 was only 4th, although a podium place in the next quarters will not only seem possible, but likely. 

Is the handsome Peugeot 508 having its throne in jeopardy?