Canada September 2019

Waiting for the Model Y?

September registered some 4.700 plugins in Canada, down 11% YoY, but the YTD count is still positive (+22%), besides, because the mainstream market is in the red (-4%), the  month plugin share reached 2.8%, pulling the 2019 PEV share to 2.7%, above the 2.2% of 2019.

Despite not enjoying the hegemony that is having south of the border, the Model 3 is the main sales drive in Canada, with the midsizer being responsible for roughly one third of all plugin registrations this year, and because the Tesla nameplate sales trend is reaching maturity, one can't expect significant growth rates until H2 2020, when a certain Model Y (hopefully) lands...

The other two Tesla nameplates are in different trajectories, while the Model X is watching its deliveries increase (last month it had its best result in the last 18 months), growing by 10%, the Model S flagship continues to slide, having dropped 12% YoY, and falling from the Top 10 positions, to the benefit of the Honda Clarity PHEV.

The Toyota Prius Prime is the Silver medalist, while the Chevrolet Bolt changed positions with its Volt sibling, with the first benefitting from the slowing sales of the latter, now out of production.

A mention to the good performance of the Kia Niro PHEV, less than 100 units from the Top 10, while the veteran VW e-Golf continues on a strong pace, now in #11, just 23 units from a Top 10 spot.

Regarding the manufacturers podium, Tesla (38%) is head and shoulders above the competition, Chevrolet (12%) is in Second Place, while Toyota (10%) Mitsubishi (9%) are running for the Third spot.

Tesla Model 3 & Others

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	13.308
2	Toyota Camry	11.579
3	Honda Accord	9.089
4	Ford Fusion	7.280
5	Mercedes C-Class	5.423

Looking at the midsize vehicles general ranking, the Model 3 is finally in the lead, with the previous leader Toyota Camry some 2.000 units behind, so the Tesla midsizer has a sizeable margin to manage its lead.

Looking into the rest of the competition, the only model to have a significant share of electrification is the Ford Fusion, where 18% of its sales come from the PHEV version.

Tesla Model S & Others

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	Mercedes E/CLS	2.688
2	BMW 5-Series	1.322
3	Tesla Model S	808
4	Mercedes S-Class	643
5	Porsche Panamera	495

Looking at the Premium full-size cars general ranking, we can see the Tesla Model S steady in the 3rd position, with its registrations dropping 12%, a small feat in the current SUV-fever context, as with the exception of the leaders Mercedes E/CLS-class (+3% YoY), all other ICE models are witnessing falling sales, with losses ranging from the 27% of the Panamera, to the 34% of the BMW 5-Series.

Interestingly, the only other model to have a significant share of electrification is the Porsche Panamera, with 19% of its sales coming from its PHEV versions.

As for the Model X, it continues far from the class best sellers (for reference, the BMW X5 has 5.230 registrations), being #9 this year, but nevertheless, it has grown 10% YoY, so the Tesla's Sports-CUV is on the right path. 

Of course, a mid-life refresh wouldn't hurt...

France September 2019

Tesla and Renault Shine

The French PEV passenger car market registered 5,553 registrations in June, up 46% YoY, and the double-digit growth is even more significant, when we realize that the overall market remains stagnant (-1%).

The September result (2.8%) placed the 2019 PEV share at 2.6%, with BEVs alone having 1.9% share. 

With BEVs (+57%) growing faster than PHEVs (+31%), all-electric cars represented 76% of all plugin sales last month, above the 2019 average (72%), which means that BEVs are winning the upper hand over PHEVs.  

The BEV mommentum is reflected in the September Best Selling models, with the Renault Zoe scoring 1,568 units, managing to grow 6% YoY, an impressive performance, considering the model is in a mid-life changing cycle, and the EV versions of the Peugeot 208, among others, are just a couple of months away…

Elsewhere, the Tesla Model 3 had another high tide, reaching another 1,000/month performance in September, with the 1,061 units of last month in line with the other peaks of the Tesla midsize sedan.

The surprise of the month was the Volvo XC60 PHEV reaching the 5th spot, with 230 registrations, with the Swedish SUV beating the Outlander PHEV and winning the Best Selling plugin hybrid trophy of the month. 

A fluke, or is Volvo's midsizer going after the Japanese SUV? To be continued... 

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Renault Zoe	1,568
2	Tesla Model 3	1,061
3	Nissan Leaf	299
4	BMW i3	250
5	Volvo XC60 PHEV	230

In a market known for its stability, the main news was the Volvo XC60 PHEV climbing to #7, while the Range Rover Sport PHEV cruise ship SUV was up to #11 and other two plugin hybrids also climbed positions, with the BMW 225xe A. Tourer climbing to #14 and the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV to #15.

Surprisingly the Jurassic Citroen C-Zero surpassed the Mercedes E300e/de twins, reaching the 17th spot. 

The Tesla Model S is in #20, with 401 deliveries this year, while the Model X is in #23, with 341 units, 69 of them last month.

But it won't be easy for the Tesla SUV to rejoin the ranking, as there are plenty of new models outside the Top 20 with big ambitions, like the #24 Hyundai Ioniq Electric, that registered 72 units last month, or the #25 Kia Soul EV, that delivered 90 units in September, the nameplate best result in 20 months, not mentioning the fresh BMW 330e (68 units last month), or the Audi Q5 PHEV (67 units).

In the brands ranking, Renault (31%), continues in the leading position, while Tesla (13%) is firm in the 2nd spot, all while Kia and Nissan (both with 7%) and Volvo and BMW (both 6%) are all running for the last place in the podium. 

USA September 2019

US market dances to the tune of the Model 3

Some 33,000 plug-in units were registered last month in the USA, down 25% YoY, but the YTD tally is still in the black (+2% YoY), and because the overall market is stagnating (-1% in 2019), the 2019 PEV Share grew slightly to 1.9%. 

This growth is highly dependent on the Tesla Model 3, with the sports sedan being responsible for 47% of all deliveries, greatly influencing the general behavior of this Tesla-addicted PEV market.

Speaking of Tesla, it seems the Californian maker has already found its natural ground, share wise, having increased just slightly (+1%, to 57%) its market share, regarding our last US post, in June.

Of course, when the Model Y lands, the share should rise again, but until then, do not expect big changes.

On the other hand, the Model 3 addiction is patent when we remove that nameplate from the total numbers, doing so makes the market dive 12% YoY...

Even the other Teslas are seeing their numbers drop significantly, with the Model X down 17% YoY, while the Model S deliveries are dropping like a stone: -43%!

Blackhole effect indeed...

Looking elsewhere, there isn't much to talk about, with the BWM 530e reaching a Top 10 position, while the Toyota Prius PHEV recovered the runner-up spot, while a (slightly) recharged Nissan Leaf is now #6 and the Chevrolet Volt continues sliding from the ranking, as the sun sets in its horizon.

A special mention for the #4 Chevrolet Bolt, that in September has managed its best score (2,125 units) in 6 months, helping it to be the only nameplate, aside the leader Model 3, to improve its score (by 58%!) regarding the same period in 2018. Kudos for this little EV, (too) many times critisized.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, as previously mentioned, Tesla is now responsible for a mammoth 57% of the market, while Chevrolet (7%) hangs on to Second Place, trying to keep the Silver medal from the hands of the #3 Toyota (also 7%), ahead of Honda, Nissan and BMW, all with 4% share.

Tesla Model 3 & Others

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	Toyota Camry	258,456
2	Honda Accord	204,463
3	Nissan Altima	159,969
4	Ford Fusion	133,938
5	Tesla Model 3	111,050

The Model 3 is now in cruise speed, with the Tesla midsizer keeping its #5 spot in the midsize class, while at the same time, the Californian has the Premium midsize category in the bag, as its closest competitor, the Mercedes C-Class, is way behind it, with 37,898 sales.

Interestingly, the Model 3 black hole effect is not being felt among the midsize best sellers, with the one with the largest drop being the Honda Accord, with a small 5% decrease, while the Ford Fusion even managed to increase sales by 7%.

It looks like the relatively high price of the Model 3 prevents it from making further inroads into the mainstream market.

Tesla Model S & Others

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	BMW 5-Series	30,634
2	Mercedes E/CLS-Class	29,649
3	Audi A6	13,165
4	Tesla Model S	9,900
5	Mercedes S-Class	8,753

Looking at the large premium car category, the Tesla Model S is suffering from the cannibalization effect of the Model 3, with deliveries down 43%, with the recovering 3# Audi A6 winning a sizeable distance, while the #5 Mercedes S-Class is closing in, thanks to sales only being down by 15%.

I guess Model S sales should only recover when and if the much debated interior refresh finally lands.

Regarding the Model X (13,540 deliveries in 2019),  sales drop isn't so Sharp (only -17%), but the more intense competition means that the Tesla nameplate is only 9th on the Large Premium SUV category, pretty far from the class leader, the BMW X5 (37,035 units).

Iceland September 2019

Outlander PHEV: Best selling vehicle in Iceland.

PEV market returns to growth in September

After a string of falling months, the plugin market was back in black last month, with 260 registrations, a 5% increase YoY, minimizing the yearly drop to -19% YoY, something that could be considered catastrophic, if the overall market wasn't dropping even faster (-30% YoY).

Also interestingly, Iceland was known for being a market where plugin hybrids have played a major role for a long time, but currently PHEV sales are down 41%(!) this year, and while BEVs are still a minority (42%), their significant growth (up 77% this year), should make them the preferred powertrain technology next year. 

Add the fact that Tesla is (finally!) landing officially, and there is even more reasons to believe this...

As a result of all these changes, this year PEV share isn't all that bad (19%), with September reaching 28%, so expect a strong Q4, sharewise, allowing the Icelandic plugin market to end north of 20% in 2019.

Looking at the models ranking, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV reigns supreme, hitting a year best result last month, with 69 registrations, while the Hyundai Kona EV is in a surprising 3rd spot, and it could be higher up, if it weren't the usual problems with allocations (Hyundai Iceland could join the chorus of their fellow Hyundai European importers...).

With no allocation problems seems to be the eternal VW e-Golf, that delivered 18 units last month, a new year best, confirming the idea that the veteran German BEV is ending its career in full charge.

BMW had a good month in September, with the 225xe A. Tourer jumping 6 positions to #10, while the fresh off the boat new BMW X5 PHEV scored 8 deliveries, a new year best for the nameplate, which seems to indicate a successful career for the second generation of the BMW tank SUV.

In the brands ranking, Mitsubishi (22%) is in the leadership, followed by the #2 Volvo (12%), while the new 3rd placed Nissan (11%) is now threatening the Swedish carmaker's Silver Medal.

Models breakdown by fuel source

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	Mitsu. Outlander PHEV	487
2	Toyota RAV4 Hybrid	255
2	Nissan Leaf	252
4	Hyundai Kona EV	168
5 6 7 8 9 10	Nissan Qashqai Toyota Land Cruiser Volvo XC90 PHEV Toyota Yaris Hybrid Volvo XC60 PHEV Toyota Corolla Hybrid	158 155 140 133 117 108

In a market where plugins are hovering at 20% share, plug-ins are becoming more and more synonym with overall best sellers, despite not having full access to the mainstream models ranking, what we have got is enough to make a draft of the local overall market. 

If we mix all powertrains together, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is by far the best selling vehicle in the country, while the high share of plugins is noticeable, as they make half of the Top 10, while HEVs have 3 representatives, all from Toyota.

Looking at regular ICE representatives, the best only shows in #5, with the two being crossovers/SUVs, that do not have a direct plugin competitor.

As plug-ins continue to increase share, expect at some point in 2020 this Top 10 to be 100% xEV, with regular ICE models being slowly, but surely, pushed out.