Friday, January 17, 2020

France December 2019

Resultado de imagem para 2020 Renault Zoe


Renault Zoe and Tesla Model 3 pull market to record heights 

The French PEV passenger car market registered a record 7,250 units in December (+28% YoY), a new all time record, thanks to the leader Renault Zoe (2,097 units, a new year best), that seems to be past the worse of the production ramp up, the Tesla Model 3, that with 1,250 units, had its best result ever in France, while PHEV sales more than doubled YoY, helping along with the record score.

This record result and plugin share (3.4%, 2.3% for BEVs alone) in December, pulled the 2019 PEV share to 2.8% (1.9% BEV), a new record, although not that far from the 2.1% of 2018...Better luck in 2020?

More telling of the changing times is the diesel fall from grace in the mainstream market, with the 2019 share shrinking to 34% (39% in 2018), a significant departure from the 47% of 2017 and a far cry from the 72% of 2012...Will diesel sales be dead here by 2025?

Looking at December Best Sellers, besides the aforementioned Renault Zoe and Tesla Model 3, the BMW Group had two representatives on the Top 5, with both the #3 BMW i3 and #5 Mini Countryman PHEV scoring record results, with the 485 units of the German hatchback being particularly relevant, as this record performance happens over six years after it started zooming French roads. Has the quirky hatchback acquired cult status?

Someone that is starting to become familiar in this Top 5, is the Porsche Cayenne PHEV, that ended December in 4th, with 366 units, its best result in 17 months. Will we see it again in 2020?

Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Renault Zoe
2,097
2
Tesla Model 3
1,250
3
BMW i3
485
4
Por. Cayenne PHEV 
366
5
Mini Country. PHEV
236

In a market known for its stability, it is no surprise to find that the Renault Zoe won the Models trophy, its 7th in a row, with a record 18,817 units, a 11% improvement over the 2018 result, while the Tesla Model 3 removed the Nissan Leaf from its usual runner-up spot, with the Japanese hatchback not helping itself in any way, having dropped its sales by 20% regarding last year, and i guess that if the year had a few more months, even the 3rd place would be out of its hands.

Time for price slashing, Nissan?

The 2018 Bronze Medal, the BMW i3, this time was only 5th, with 2.954 units (+22% YoY), surpassed by the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that recovered the Best Selling PHEV (and SUV) titles from the Volvo XC60 PHEV. 

Looking at the second half of the table, the Porsche Cayenne PHEV profited from its strong year end to jump 3 spots, into #14, but nevertheless, it wasn't enough to become the 2019 Best Seller in the Luxury SUV category, as the #11 Range Rover Sport PHEV took the prize for the first time, after a close race with another heavyweight, last year winner Volvo XC90 PHEV.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 195 registrations of the new BMW X5 PHEV, its second record performance in a row(!), with two midsize SUVs also shining, as both the Audi Q5 PHEV (86 units) and the Jaguar i-Pace (74 units) scored record results, but the most surprising result of the month went to Geely's LEVC TX5 EREV, that thanks to a new ride-hailing company operating in Paris, it registered 96 units in December. 

Looking at a few other sub-categories, the BMW 225xe A. Tourer won once again the Best Selling MPV award (lack of competitors tend to do these things…), while the Mercedes E300e/de won their first Luxury Car title.

In the brands ranking, Renault (31%) won its 8th consecutive(!) title, followed at a distance by the #2 Tesla (12%) and the #3 BMW (8%), with the German brand managing to keep the #4 Nissan (7%) at bay.




Looking into 2020, the Renault Zoe will probably cross the 20,000 units mark and the Tesla Model 3 should reach some 8,000 units, so no big surprises, but true disruption will start with Peugeot playing its cards, namely when starting to deliver its 208 EV, forcing the Renault Zoe to play game and make an effort to keep the leadership, while the 3008 PHEV and 508 PHEV could surprise in the PHEV category.



Midsize Car Best Sellers

Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
Peugeot 508
15,477
2
Mercedes C-Class
8,194
3
Renault Talisman
6,824
4
Tesla Model 3
6,455




Tesla Model 3 apart, this category still has a long road ahead, with one unplugged model (Talisman), and another soon-to-be-electrified, the Peugeot 508, that should help to the electrification cause. 

The Mercedes C300e/de twins still have a low degree of electrification, with just 3% of sales belonging to their PHEV versions, but expect this percentage to grow throughout the year.

With the arch-rival Peugeot electrifying its midsize model, one wonders if Renault has plans to electrify the Talisman. 



Midsize SUV Best Sellers

Pl
Model
2019
Sales  
1
DS 7 Crossback
14,099
2
BMW X3
6,148
3
Mercedes GLC
5,975
4
Volvo XC60
5,897
5
Audi Q5
5,256

This SUV category has also a low degree of electrification, with 3 unplugged models, and of the 2 electrified models, only the Volvo XC60 (32% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) has a significant degree of electrification, as the Audi Q5 has only 6% plugin share.

Expect a fast electrification in 2020, with the leader DS 7 starting to deliver its PHEV units in volume, the #2 BMW X3 also delivering a PHEV version soon, and the Mercedes GLC also with a PHEV version in the cards, we could see a fully electrified Top 5 sometime next year. Not bad, eh?


23 comments:

  1. DS 3 Crossback candidate in top3 in 2020?

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    Replies
    1. Isn't the Peugeot 2008 the more affordable variant? Surely that would have a better shot at a place in the top 3?...

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    2. Ds 3 in already on sale.

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    3. I think the DS3 will be in the Top 20, but not in the first spots, as DS focus is more on being Premium (aka, higher profit margin), than units sold, for that PSA will have the 2008 EV and the future Opel Mokka X EV.

      The 2008 EV will surely be on the Top 10, and a Top 5 spot is a possibility, will depend more on PSA's battery availability than anything else.

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  2. Madan RajanJanuary 18, 2020

    Congratulations France on buying so many PEVs.
    With night time electricity being cheaper, many French households with a garage can buy a PEV to make better use of their nuclear power and reduce the pollution.

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. Zoe or e208.A mystery to me.Your bids?

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    Replies
    1. Zoe should win the race. But the 208 EV might tickle the rival in a few months...

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    2. While the Zoe is more established, the better fast charging capability of the 208 should actually give it a significant edge among educated EV buyers... It's the difference between a car that offers decent long distance trip capability, versus one that only works for people with significant pain tolerance.

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    3. If on the demand dpt, i have no doubt the 208 EV could reach Zoe levels if Peugeot wanted, for me the questions are: "Does PSA has enough batteries? And can they ramp up fast?"

      That's one big advantage of Renault: The experience is there and the production output is already in decent levels, so it is easier to increase their production rate than someone that is starting things from scratch.

      (Come to think of it, one could replace "Renault" by "Tesla" and "Peugeot" by "German OEM", and the text would be correct too)

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    4. Good point. On the other hand though, many legacy makers seem to be targeting relatively ambitious numbers for their new European models, since they hope to meet EU regulations with these... Fiat for example is talking about 80,000 of the 500e per year -- which I think is actually way more than they can realistically sell at the expected specs and price level... If PSA has similar ambitions, I'd say they *could* give the Zoe a serious run for its money.

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    5. Do not forgent that faster charging spoils the battery,and this is not so relevant for small cars(speed of 50 kW is quate). Zoe has an option:"car without battery".

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    6. "Faster charging spoils the battery" is an invalid generalisation. The possible charging speed depends mostly on the type of cell chosen. For any given type of cell, there is a rather narrow band between "likely doesn't affect the life time negatively in a significant way", and "will destroy the battery almost immediately" -- so a car that can charge twice as fast does *not* do that because the maker chose to torture the cells... That's just not how this works.

      50 kW charge rate might be good enough for ~20 kWh batteries (you typically can't get much more out of the cells anyway) -- but for the 50 kWh batteries in the new Zoe vs. 208/Corsa, 50 kW is a *severe* limitation. It means almost hour-long charging stops to replenish most of the battery, rather than half-hour with 100 kW...

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    7. Fast charging current contributes to battery degradation.There is a lot of information about this.

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    8. In particular from Tesla.

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    9. At peak charge for a short time.No need for battery 50 kW.

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    10. Difference between e208(100kW) and Zoe(50kW) from 20%-80% will be no more than 15 minutes.

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    11. Maybe. We won't know for sure until we see the actual charge curves. But if these 15 minutes mean say 25 minutes for the 20% - 80% charge instead of 40 minutes, that's still very significant.

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    12. Fast charging vs. slow charging may or may not affect battery degradation (last I heard, actually available data for Tesla didn't show a clear statistical correlation) -- but that doesn't in any way mean that a different vehicle with a higher fast charging rate will have worse degradation that one with a lower one.

      (And frankly, even if it did, very few people would chose the slower charging car because of that...)

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    13. 70% of all car charging cases-house.100kW of charging in Europe is very small.This will not be decisive when buying a car for about two years more.

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    14. Yes, most charging is at home or work, so you don't need fast charging most of the time -- but when you *do* go on a longer trip, charging rate becomes decisive.

      There is a significant number of >100 kW chargers in the Netherlands, and increasingly in other parts of Europe. Considering that people keep a car for 7 years on average, looking only at chargers available *right now* would be seriously short-sighted...

      BTW, I'm not making this stuff up. If you follow discussions in relevant forums, there is broad consensus the the single biggest limitation of the Chevy Bolt is its crappy charge rate...

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  5. Strong volumes from the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance and Kia-Hyundai loosing out places to both BMW and Tesla.

    From the published data, 2019 carmaker standings are:

    1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 25677 vehicles
    2nd Tesla with 6455 vehicles
    3rd BMW Group with 5717 vehicles
    4th Kia-Hyundai with 5595 vehicles
    5th Volvo car with 3266 vehicles

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