I. Big Eight
Let's see how the Big Eight EV Markets fared in 2020:
China
* Tesla Model 3 #1 - First foreigner to win the trophy, but the Wuling Mini EV was closing in and is the favorite for the 2021 title;
* 1.3 million units - After a negative first half of the year, the market rebounded in the second half and ended with a 9% growth regarding 2019. And the Market Share reached 6.3%, a new record.
Germany
* Renault Zoe #1 - The French hatchback took another Trophy, its 3rd in a row, but it should be its last, as the VW ID.3 had a strong end of the year and should take the 2021 trophy.
* 394.000 sales - With an amazing 270% growth in 2020, the German market has surpassed the US market and became the 2nd largest in the World, thanks to an amazing 14% share, placing it firmly in the Disruption Zone...So for 2021, do i hear 20%-plus shares?
USA
* Tesla Model 3 #1 - In Tesla-land, it was another title (and last?) for the sports sedan, but its Tesla Model Y sibling is coming closer and should surpass it in 2021;
* 328.000 units - A slight 4% increase over the 2019 result, allowing the market share to reach 2.3%...So a lot of work to do. Fortunately there is a new, more EV-friendly, Administration in power, which added to better model availability from Legacy OEMs, we should finally see significant growth (50% YoY?), helping Tesla, that currently has over 50% of the market, in the hard task of bringing EVs into the US market mainstream.
France
* Renault Zoe #1 - How could it be otherwise? Especially considering the underwhelming performances of its arch-rival Peugeot 208 EV...
* 186.000 units - With sales jumping a stunning 202%, in a context of a falling overall market, France surged from 7th in 2019 to become the 4th largest EV market in the World in 2020, with the market share ending at a record 11%, a far cry from the 3% of the previous year, allowing it to join the Disruption Zone. Will we see it reach 20% by the end of 2021?
United Kingdom
* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Veni, Vidi, Vici. After storming through the British market in 2019, the Sports Sedan consolidated its leadership in 2020, with no clear opposition (VW ID.3?) in sight.
* 175.000 units - Another market on the fast lane, up 135% regarding 2019, achieving a record 10%, up from 3.5% in 2019. So...another market ready for the Disruption Zone? Say, 15-20% share in 2021?
Norway
* Audi e-Tron #1 - The unexpected happened in the most electrified market in the World, with the high end Audi e-Tron winning in Norway, beating the Tesla Model 3, winner in 2019! The 2021 race should be even more interesting, with Volkswagen looking to place two horses (ID.3 and ID.4) in the race for the leadership...
* 106.000 units - With plugin sales already being the largest volume of the overall market (54% BEVs, 20% PHEVs), one can't expect surging sales, but still, sales were up 33% in 2020, so expect them to continue taking share from the remaining powertrains, albeit more slowly from now on. With this in mid, i expect 80%-plus market shares during 2021. And 90%-plus in 2022?...
Sweden
* Volvo S/V60 PHEV #1 - In one of the PHEV capitals of the EV World, we have two Volvo plugin hybrids in the top two positions, securing a 1-2 win for the local maker, followed by 3 other PHEVs, while the Best Selling BEV was only #6, with the Tesla Model 3 selling half of the leaders Volvo S/V60 PHEV.
* 94.000 units - What can i say, another European market firmly in the Disruption Zone. With doubling sales and some 35% share in 2020, tripling the 2019 share (11% then), this is what happens when markets get disrupted. But with fiscal changes happening soon, one wonders what will happen next...
Netherlands
* VW ID.3 #1 - In one of the most dramatic twists of 2020, the recently landed VW ID.3 took the crown in the last month of the year from the head ceiling of the Kia Niro EV (first) and Tesla Model 3 (second);
* 89.000 units - Far from the surging sales of other European countries, this BEV-friendly market market nevertheless grew a healthy 34%, allowing it to reach 25% share in 2020, a steady growth over the 15% of 2019 and the 6% of 2018. Will we see it reach 35% share by the end of 2021?
II. Engines of Growth
* By growth rates
In markets with some volume, say 1.000 units in 2019, the most impressive growth rates came from the Czech Republic (+316%, to 5.239 units, mostly thanks to Skoda), Taiwan (+308%, to 6.610 units, mostly thanks to Tesla), followed by Germany (+270%), Denmark (+249%, 32.522 units, mostly thanks to the...Ford Kuga PHEV - yes, that one, apparently Danes had some sort of crush over the Ford SUV...), and Italy (+248%).
Final references to the 440% growth rate of India, sure, sales are still low (little over 4.000 units), but considering the size of the market, the potential is huuuge...and also the surging sales in the UAE (up 7-fold) and Saudi Arabia (up 10-fold), sure, the starting base was really small (low hundreds), but the fact that these markets are Going EV, says a lot about the current momentum...
* By Volume
Growth rates are important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case it wasn't China making the headlines, as the 103.000 more units being sold in 2020 than in the previous year weren't enough to beat the 285.000 units(!!!) that Germany added to its market in 2020...
Others have also progressed greatly, like France (124k more, to 186k) or the UK (175k vs 75k), while Sweden (+54k) also added a large chunk of volume to its tally.
For me Italy was the most surprising breakthrough in 2020.
ReplyDeleteEurope's 4th largest market should be soon in this list of important EV markets.
Japan and South-Korea are held back by the protection of local carmakers and (in the case of South-Korea) a history of ridiculous incentives.
Generous incentives in Italy and the start of the Fiat 500e have sparked the local EV market.
DeleteNow, of the big 5 markets in Europe (DE, FR, UK, IT and ES), the only sleeping market is Spain.
Thank you for your importantant analysis. I suggest to use the official announced govermental sales stops of many countries for ICEs in addition to the countries entrance into the 10 % disruption zone.
ReplyDeleteJose, Feel free to use this as you see fit. See https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5323958/ .
ReplyDelete==============================
I have now compiled the global 2019 BEV and PHEV data using the same methodologies as I did with the 2020 global data. Thanks are due once again to EV Sales for many of the numbers for units sold. The battery GWh and revenue $$ numbers are generated from that using typical wiki/google data. Various other snippets have come from other places. All errors are of course mine - feel free to point out anything material. See my previous posts for methodology.
In my data set there are over 20 manufacturer groups being tracked by name, and of course more than that by manufacturer brand and even more by vehicle model. Although I am only accessing the public domain posts of EV Sales (note, I am not accessing their database which appears to be a commercial endeavour of theirs) it seems to me to be a matter of courtesy to not breakdown to the lower levels. It also seems unnecessary for the purposes of a TSLA investor's analysis needs, and in fact after sifting through the data you will see that I have concatenated everything below the top five into two further tiers, so only seven rows in all.
So here is the global Year-on-Year picture with the ranking on the basis of the 2020 cell consumption:
[IMG]
I think all TSLA investors know the good news. Allow me to make a few observations, which include some potential less good news.
1. With the exception of VAG and to a lesser extent Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi the big western or Japanese auto-makers struggle to get named positions in the top 20, and Toyota, Honda, Ford, Stellantis (FCA+PSA) and GM are pretty much absent even at model level. How the mighty have fallen, can they recover ? One could say the same of JLR etc given that Magna Steyr seem to be doing the actual work, and are probably the only one making a profit.
2. The battle of PHEV vs BEV is not yet over. Indeed because the big manufacturers committed so long ago to the PHEV pathway, and because those models are only now feeding through their very slow model introduction pipelines, the YoY growth in unit metrics is 78% PHEV vs 31% for BEV. The trend is even more apparent in the GWh metric as the legacy manufacturers are pushing just enough batteries in to get within the emissions caps, i.e. average PHEV batteries seems to have increased from 12kWh/car to 14kWh/car. This means that PHEV share of battery supply has actually increased in relative terms in the last year. I think this trend will flatten & decline, but those manufacturers are very motivated to overpay for their batteries as emissions caps are costly. That in turn will have a noticeable impact on market costs for cells for the next few years I suggest.
3. The average battery size of a BEV is steady YoY at 46kWh, and for Tesla probably steady at about 70kWh, however for VAG appears to be rising significantly from 51 to 65kWh. This may in part be an artifact of how I pulled together the dataset, but I think it is a) an indication that most BEVs are still under-ranged; b) that even Tesla is is still parsimonious with batteries but also still maintaining a clear premium; and c) an indication that VAG is intent on closing the gap and is indeed doing so. In this respect at least VAG 'get it' in both the short term driving range and in the longer term effects on cyclic performance and brand positioning.
@David Sharman: Thanks for the excellent charts, keep it up.
DeleteTesla has to sell BEV for revenue while most other groups sell because of the fines. While few newcomers are coming with their products in USA this year, for Europe, its the products from China which are going to grab some sales.
As expected, the PEV sales in Europe are down big time, its not the usual jan drop, but its all the self-registration in dec that boosted that month sales and crashes sales in jan. Lets see how long they play this game. Maximum 2 more years, with $100/KWh battery, it will create a public opinion that battery cars are affordable and that automakers are not selling it.
@famlin -
Deletea) I guess you are looking at the charts I put on TMC.
b) It would be nice if EV-Sales were to do this, and I am happy if they use mine. Nobody else seems to be doing this in public.
c) I am unsure whether self-registration is what drove VAG's 2020 end-year numbers in Europe. To what extent is there solid evidence that this is a materially significant effect ? Anyway from now on it has a much less significant impact as they have now completed the channel-stuffing exercise.
@Jose Pontes: Thanks a lot for this info. So 328.000 PEVs were sold in USA. How many are non Tesla, lets look at some of the dedicated PEVs for which info is available.
ReplyDeleteChevy Bolt: 20.753
Nissan Leaf: 9.559
BMW i3: 1.502
Fiat 500: 674
Porsche Taycan: 4.404
Audi eTron: 7.202
Honda Clarity: 3,664 (small %age is FCV, rest are PHEV)
Chevy Volt: 68
Thats 47.826; in addition there are some compliance PHEVs like Escape, RAV4, Volvos. At best it could have totaled 128.000 which leaves 200.000 for Tesla.
Even with $7.500 fed rebate and another $4.000 california rebate, this is all they could sell. Even bribes are not working, what do the automakers want.
Carrots are not working, only stick will as we have seen in Europe.
Wow, Tesla pulls more than 1/2 the load. We have to look for Lucid/Rivian to join, otherwise no hope with the legacy automakers.
Tesla sold around 228K cars in US last year, with the rest being almost exactly 100K.
Delete2020 is the Ground 0 year for India and 4.000 BEVs are ok. They have very small %age of HEV, PHEV though lot of start/stop vehicles are sold. But once picked up, it should be a significant force.
ReplyDelete1st I will expect India to overtake Iceland, followed by Ireland, Ukraine and so on. Still with low priced cars and batteries being expensive, it will take time. Again the $100/KWh threshold should be hit in 2022.
Who would have expected India to be #2 in world cell phone market.
Um... "Who would have expected India to be #2 in world cell phone market." -- kinda obvious actually, given the population size?...
DeletePer chinese ministry, these are the available PEV by fuel
ReplyDeleteBEV: 124 models from 65 companies
PHEV: 1 model from 1 company
FCEV: 11 models from 9 companies
Total: 136 models from 75 companies
Seems the only PHEV they refer is BYD Han. But they are considering Li Xiang One as BEV even though its a range extender beyond 180 km NEDC. Oh FCEV have 11 so there is life for them in the Worlds #1 market. On side note, Nikola factory in USA is coming up, but no idea whether they will sell BEV or FCEV trucks.
https://pushevs.com/2021/02/04/xpeng-p7-gets-a-cobalt-free-lfp-battery/
Dude, these are only *new* models. The Li One has been on the market for like a year?
Delete4. TSLA's market share is relatively stable, i.e. TSLA is growing about as fast as the overall market. We suspect it is likely the only one making serious profit, but we are unsure of that as none of the others disclose their BEV/PHEV profitability.
ReplyDelete5. TSLA was in a league of its own, but VAG is really working hard to close that gap, and it is not just being done by VAG's PHEV offerings. TSLA has achieved approximately 35% YoY growth last year irrespective of which metric one picks, but VAG has achieved 200% growth. In particular VAG managed to source an additional 13 GWh of cells during 2020 whereas TSLA only maged to source an additional 8 GWh of cells, i.e. however you cut it VAG did a good growth job. What is more VAG focussed those additional cells on bringing credible BEVs to market at scale rather than propping up their PHEV offering more than was necessary.
6. BYD's position is less clear. The data suggests their vehicle sales declined. That might be shortcomings in the data, or it might be that BYD had a relatively weak hand in models in the last year or so and instead has been focussing their efforts as a cell manufacturer. I note that BYD are currently the only major cell supplier that does not supply TSLA. One to watch.
7. The cell manufacturers are far less fragmented than the auto manufacturers. Historically it was BYD, CATL, LG, PAE vs about 20-30 auto manufacturers. This meant that the cell manufacturers were (imho) hoping to rein in TSLA's dominance and let the others catch up so as to play auto mfg against each other in a high margin scene where they managed the ramp rate to their own benefit(s). That is of course part of the reason why TSLA has reverse integrated with its 4680 effort, but - notably - why VAG etc have also coinvested with Northvolt etc to break the quadopoly.
8. Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi and Hyundai/Kia have maintained their relative market shares and grown in line with the market. As groups these appear to be focussing their cell supplies towards the better models, but are so far struggling to achieve far-enough above-trend growth without overpaying for cells to enable them to break into a higher league.
ReplyDelete9. Much the same can be said for those in the 6-10 ranked positions (SAIC, BMW, GAC, Mercedes, NIO). Of those Mercedes has made the biggest improvements though it still has not caught up with BMW, and both seem still to be highly dependent on their compliance-driven PHEV offerings. In contrast SAIC's Wuling HongGuang Mini EV sells huge quantities but is a genuine BEV rather than being a compliance PHEV.
10. And "All Others" lost out, which is where indirectly VAG stole their cells from. This is notable as the All Others category saw total cell consumption fall from 22 to 17 GWh, a loss of 5 GWh (-23%) at a time of 36% market growth. This tells us a lot about how hard a time latecomers will have in obtaining at-scale cell supply, and indirectly it also tells us how hard it will be to get cost declines for stationary applications that cannot command a mobility premium. If Ford, Toyota, GM, Honda, Stellantis (PSA+FCA) do not put capital at risk in creating cell manufacturing this suggests they will really struggle to get meaningful scale in the next few years. some companies have very different cost of capital than others.
11. The battle of cell supply exhibits aspects of being both a zero sum game and a non-zero sum game. As a TSLA shareholder one needs to watch really carefully for the next few years to see whether TSLA will remain in a league of its own (30-34% market share by GWh) vs VAG in second place at only 16%, or alternatively whether VAG will be able to continue closing the ground on TSLA. Note VAG grew in one year from having a 6% market share to 16% market share by cell supply so it is possible that VAG can close this gap. My personal opinion is that TSLA will exhibit a growth spurt during 2021, though that does not mean that VAG might not do the same. Clearly it is a far more comfortable thing for TSLA to be twice the size of the nearest competitor than to have a near-peer competitor.
12. We as individual shareholders need to watch out for these industrial growth and adoption metrics. Not every company in this competition will be a winner, and success does not always go to the bold pioneers.
Jose,
ReplyDeletehow much do you think the "Rest of the World" (World-China-Europe-USA) will roughly grow YoY in 2021?
200k? This is a tricky one...
DeleteThat's not much. Here is an article with data from EV-volumes.com, that has Japan + "other" at 180,000 units. So 200,000 would only equate to 11.11 % growth YoY. Is there a reason why you are that conservative?
Deletehttps://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/08/global-plugin-vehicle-sales-up-43-in-2020-european-sales-up-137/
Those markets are harder to predict.
DeleteI see no disruption in Sweden. There is nothing disruptive about compliance/subsidy PHEVs. Makers simply switching some of their combustion-only production for PHEV variants of the same models provides continuity to their business, not disruption.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDelete9. Much the same can be said for those in the 6-10 ranked positions (SAIC, BMW, GAC, Mercedes, NIO). Of those Mercedes has made the biggest improvements though it still has not caught up with BMW, and both seem still to be highly dependent on their compliance-driven PHEV offerings. In contrast SAIC's Wuling HongGuang Mini EV sells huge quantities but is a genuine BEV rather than being a compliance PHEV.
10. And "All Others" lost out, which is where indirectly VAG stole their cells from. This is notable as the All Others category saw total cell consumption fall from 22 to 17 GWh, a loss of 5 GWh (-23%) at a time of 36% market growth. This tells us a lot about how hard a time latecomers will have in obtaining at-scale cell supply, and indirectly it also tells us how hard it will be to get cost declines for stationary applications that cannot command a mobility premium. If Ford, Toyota, GM, Honda, Stellantis (PSA+FCA) do not put capital at risk in creating cell manufacturing this suggests they will really struggle to get meaningful scale in the next few years. some companies have very different cost of capital than others.
11. The battle of cell supply exhibits aspects of being both a zero sum game and a non-zero sum game. As a TSLA shareholder one needs to watch really carefully for the next few years to see whether TSLA will remain in a league of its own (30-34% market share by GWh) vs VAG in second place at only 16%, or alternatively whether VAG will be able to continue closing the ground on TSLA. Note VAG grew in one year from having a 6% market share to 16% market share by cell supply so it is possible that VAG can close this gap. My personal opinion is that TSLA will exhibit a growth spurt during 2021, though that does not mean that VAG might not do the same. Clearly it is a far more comfortable thing for TSLA to be twice the size of the nearest competitor than to have a near-peer competitor.
12. We as individual shareholders need to watch out for these industrial growth and adoption metrics. Not every company in this competition will be a winner, and success does not always go to the bold pioneers.
- END -
Jose,
ReplyDeleteQuick numbers question:
In your Norway December 2020 summary you listed 92k plug-ins sold there in 2020.
The current post has 106k. Is that together with light-commercial? Or was the sum off in the December post?
I think it's the latter, b/c your November post says 88k, and then 18k in December...
Anyway, even if it's symbolic, nice to know there were actually 4 six-digit countries in Europe last year!
Thanks,
Assaf
USA: For 1st time, the share of mighty petrol/gasoline (gas=god) falls below 90% share in new vehicles sold in 2021-01.
ReplyDeleteDiesel: 3,6%
Hybrid: 4,2%
Plugin: 0,8%
Electric: 2,1%
Gasoline: 89,3%
BEV has seen 50% increase on YoY basis. Who is behind this jump?
Plugin & Hybrid has also seen big jump. Will 2021 be a different year.
Surprised at so many hybrids. What else sells a lot besides the Prius?
DeleteToyota has full hybrid options throughout most of their lineup. Don't know about the US: but in Europe, the make up about half of Toyota's sales IIRC...
DeleteMore recently, a lot of makers are increasingly pushing mild hybrids as mainstream options.
20% sales by Toyota in USA in 2020-12 are XEV (hybrid+plugin) with nearly 16% in 2020.
DeleteThey have 8 hybrids in Toyota make with another 6 in Lexus. + 2 plugins + 1 fcev. It increased a lot towards 2020-H2.
Notable is that 3 vehicles (Prius, Venza & Sienna are hybrid only).
They now see threat from both VW & Tesla and are accelerating full hybrids to show that "you dont need to plugin".
Even for their BEVs they will say "no need to plugin", they are spinning lies after lies.
At least they are selling fully hybrids that goes 40-50% extra distance.
Past numbers are interesting, yet what counts are future trends. Tesla is here on a steep decline. Model 3 sales in Norway -50% and Model X and S down even more. Germany sales in January just up 23.4% in a market, which has grown 117% in January 21. The same picture in Netherlands and Rest of Europe. Tesla Market share losses are steepening significantly into 2021 as Tesla is not even in the top ten in many countries anymore. Tesla has to do something urgently.
ReplyDeleteYou mean they have to do something about the horrible horrible fact that they *only* grew in line with the worldwide market last year? Like, maybe introduce a new product in Europe and China? Yeah, I guess that must be why they will most likely grow faster than the market this year.
DeleteOr you mean do something about the horrible horrible fact that they never have cars do deliver in Europe in the first month of the quarter? Like, maybe build a local factory? Oh right, they are doing that too...
It doesn't make any sense to look at January and February numbers.
DeleteWhat will be interesting is March.
Hopefully by then all brands have sold their December registered stock across Europe.
Relax friends.
DeleteWait until 2021-04-01 or a day later to see 2021-Q1 sales, thats what counts for the company and for the EV community and for the planet.
Benz bluffs
ReplyDeleteThey are telling someone who buys an EQA to buy a GLA-petrol, goodness they did not tell them to buy GLA-diesel.
Ideally the customer should simply closer the browser screen or in the same screen, type
www.tesla.com and place an order.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-mercedes-benz-anti-ev-order-page/
Unlikely that they did it on purpose. Probably just failed to disable (or adapt) some generic recommendation system unaware of EVs.
DeleteSame type of fail as e-tron warning about oil changes...
Happy Valentines Day: Love you all.
ReplyDeleteThis day 2 years ago (2019-02-14), GM shut the production of Chevy Volt 2 weeks ahead of scheduled date (2019-02-28).
A fantastic car with 85 km range, high mileage, functionality was killed 2 weeks ahead. It sold 180.000 units in its 9 year run.
Still few cars are on inventory.
GM said to Volt "I hate you"
I wish someone makes a movie about "Who killed Chevy Volt" to show that GM is still the same company that killed EV1.
Long live Volt and I hope the owners keep driving it for long to show how reliable that car is.
Anyway, please watch the reveal of Chevy Bolt EUV today @ 22:00 GMT.
Chevy Bolt EV & EUV revealed. Primed for summer launch.
ReplyDeleteWhat is wonderful is a $5.500 price cut on the Gen-2 EV which is also slightly bigger than the Gen-1 EV.
New price is $31.995.
Dimensions: 4166 l x 1765 w x 1610 h
Range remains the same with the same battery pack (66 KWh).
Bolt EUV price $33.995.
Dimensions: 4305 l x 1770 w x 1615 h
Same 66 KWh battery pack.
Now GM is coming to reality. If the newly announced bill for $7.000 in USA passes, then price could after rebate could come to $25.000 which puts it on same level as a mid size sedan like Chevy Malibu.
Yes the interior space of Bolt EV is just 4% lesser, but is more functional with its 5 doors. It will easily get the ROI on the near $3.000 higher.
What is funny is that the EUV (crossover) is just 5 mm taller than EV (wagon). Does it make sense. Should a vehicle be 1615 mm in height to be called a crossover.
That is why it makes better sense to set 1500 mm as the height threshold and so both are crossovers. Just that 1 is bigger crossover than other.
Ideally they should have given a different name instead of the same Bolt with just an extra EUV tag.
Are the numbers on ev-sales.blogspot Wholesale or Retail?
ReplyDeleteIt's mostly registration data -- so neither really?...
DeleteThanks, but what do you mean with "registration data"?
DeleteNew car registrations, as recorded by the respective government agencies. Which should be similar to retail sales in general: but there can be discrepancies, depending on the registration modalities in each country.
Delete(The US is an extreme example: registration data -- in the states where it is even available at all -- lags behind sales by several weeks, making the monthly numbers *completely* different.)
Also, I'm not sure how dealer self-registrations figure into this...
Amazing! This is a great overview.
ReplyDeleteThanks José
Any data about Portugal and Switzerland? Also two strong EV markets in the past years
ReplyDelete