tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post283637626946874704..comments2024-03-24T15:03:03.162+00:00Comments on EV Sales: Germany March 2019José Ponteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-60076922412604338282019-04-22T19:04:55.226+00:002019-04-22T19:04:55.226+00:00A great deal of attraction the Zoe and Smart EQ mo...A great deal of attraction the Zoe and Smart EQ models get, comes from the fact they allow 22kW AC charging. And the e-tron can be obtained with 22kW AC charging, as well as the Mercedes-Benz EQC and the future Porsche Taycan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-11263217973089803962019-04-22T15:47:02.123+00:002019-04-22T15:47:02.123+00:00The vast majority of European EV models don't ...The vast majority of European EV models don't accept 32 A AC (i.e. 22 kW) either. Most are limited to 11 kW (including the new models from Audi etc.), and some even only have 7 kW single-phase AC. (I-Pace for example.) Only models that don't have DC charging (Zoe) rely on higher AC rates.<br /><br />Apart from that, I'm not sure what your point is. Sure, not everyone is happy with Tesla's policies -- but how is that supposed to say anything about the validity of making assumptions about where European Model 3 buyers come from vs. where US buyers come from?...<br /><br />Of course some people move from one EV to another: but those wouldn't explain the market doubling every two years -- so *obviously* most buyers must be new to EVs.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-27964227759159112192019-04-22T08:25:43.669+00:002019-04-22T08:25:43.669+00:00I feel some of you are just cheering too much the ...I feel some of you are just cheering too much the team: new models coming into market always attract "noise" and noise are for example, people that are always looking for the latest and greatest new vehicle, people that need to get into a new vehicle for whatever reason their level in life requires and people that get seduced by the proposition. Not all that people will stay in true love with those cars in 3 to 4 years down the line, those will switch to a new one in 1 year or 2, or even less. And I keep seeing references to USA even when the subject is Europe, Asia or any country in particular. Is that a great measuring tool or does is make any meaningful? See, General Motors sells a lot in the USA, Ford sells a lot in USA, even Toyota sells a lot in the USA, do you know how much Honda sells in the USA? Honda struggles to sell just 150,000 vehicles Europe wide. Is there any valuable inferences from the USA that translates into Europe when we refer to Honda?, if so, why do some of you guys keep doing it regarding Tesla? Do you know how a Tesla can make great sense when the nearby Tesla service center is nowhere to be found, you wil need to show a VIN in order to get access to order parts, Tesla own Superchargers are far way above 120 miles from where you are, Tesla cars do not accept three phase 32A AC charge and it just happen to exist more than 2 Mercedes-Benz or BMW workshops less than 10 miles from you?<br />I have been buying BMW parts without the need to show any VIN or vehicle ownership titles, why it must be needed?<br />And yes, lots of Nissan Leaf owners moving into Tesla either used Model S or newer Teslas including Model 3.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-22404624606510985642019-04-21T20:03:00.768+00:002019-04-21T20:03:00.768+00:00e-Golf entering sunset mode? I remember you sugges...e-Golf entering sunset mode? I remember you suggesting the same thing half a year ago... :-P<br /><br />With all that talk about a vastly superior successor coming early next year, certainly some demand depression is to be expected due to Osborne Effect -- but with growing interest in EVs in general, and for a model that has been supply-constrained not long ago (maybe still?...), I wouldn't expect a drastic drop in demand. Such sudden monthly fluctuations are surely just a result of market allocations?...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-45499685444599570332019-04-21T19:57:01.353+00:002019-04-21T19:57:01.353+00:00The Model 3 plays in quite a different league than...The Model 3 plays in quite a different league than a Leaf or e-Golf... While there is cross-shopping no doubt simply because of the small selection of decent EVs available, in general the EV market is not a zero sum game: every desirable new model attracts additional converts from combustion cars. In the US, the vast majority of Model 3 buyers are coming from combustion cars, not from other EVs -- and I see no reason to believe that to be different over here.<br /><br />With only the dual motor and performance variants having been available thus far, I think it's reasonable to assume that quite a lot of buyers are coming from M3 or other 3-series. (Though there are likely also many people selling up from a Prius or other non-premium combustion cars, if the US is anything to go by -- especially now that the base model is available for order...)<br /><br />There is indeed a bunch of anecdotal evidence of BMW fans defecting to the Model 3 -- though of course that doesn't tell us much about statistical significance...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-55692232162320310772019-04-21T13:41:57.692+00:002019-04-21T13:41:57.692+00:00I think it is still way too early to judge the rea...I think it is still way too early to judge the real impact of the Model 3 arrival in Germany and Europe in general. Keep in mind that most EVs in Europe are back-ordered 6 months or more. So whatever sales we are seeing right now is for models that were ordered 6+ months ago. The true impact of the Model 3 will only be visible closer to the end of the year. <br /><br />Now the the SR variant is available as well the race is definitely on. Once back orders are filled the Model 3 should have way shorter delivery times than most other brand's models, so that alone might entice people to order it. It will be interesting to see the numbers at the end of the year. Why Not?https://www.blogger.com/profile/00147133696226818974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-10331486352253477502019-04-20T19:23:32.900+00:002019-04-20T19:23:32.900+00:00You did not understand my approach. It is the mont...You did not understand my approach. It is the monthly sales number divided by all historical sales. This ensures to find out at which point a product is in its product cycle. Audi etron, Jaguar iPace and Model 3 are in an early stage of the growth, yet Model X and Model S are at the end of the growth.Heinrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08864555540391101499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-54596967727506029292019-04-20T19:21:55.041+00:002019-04-20T19:21:55.041+00:00Humm, Tesla attracting BMW M3/M4 drivers? With les...Humm, Tesla attracting BMW M3/M4 drivers? With less than 10,000 units sold annually in the recent years, surely Tesla has better getting other type of population attracted into it, otherwise these people aren't going to pay many Fremont bills. If my experiences are any representative, it looks like Tesla is attracting a lot of Nissan Leaf and self-discharging Toyota hybrid crowds. I even happen to know one person that got fed up of so much waiting that went ahead with an e-Golf purchase, in is own words, overall better fit and finish and better paint quality. Interesting, isn't it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-7679246619672319852019-04-20T13:52:31.858+00:002019-04-20T13:52:31.858+00:00From the posted data, Q12019 standings are:
1st R...From the posted data, Q12019 standings are:<br /><br />1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 5131 registrations<br />2nd BMW Group with 4475 registrations<br />3rd Tesla with 3445 registrations<br />4th Kia-Hyundai with 2565 registrations<br />5th Volkswagen Group with 2286 registrationsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-27693539368028284602019-04-20T11:22:46.447+00:002019-04-20T11:22:46.447+00:00That is a flawed approach though. Even if a model ...That is a flawed approach though. Even if a model doubles its sales year over year, it can be at 0.1% according to your calculations because it is on the market for a long time period.<br /><br />While another model which has not grown at all or even reduced its delivery count year over year can reach as much as 5-7% if sales were constant for a year and it was only introduced 12 months ago.<br /><br />And a very new model would get 50% if it delivered the exact same amount three months in a row.<br /><br />This means your metric is heavily subject on the time scale. Try using quarterly or yearly numbers for example rather than monthly. It will result in very different numbers.Flowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08974126544229945367noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-62285558396275803442019-04-20T07:08:05.459+00:002019-04-20T07:08:05.459+00:00In order to see at which point of the growth cycle...In order to see at which point of the growth cycle a model stands, I have calculated the internal growth rate (sales divided by historical sales). Best in this list is the Audi etron 15% growth, second Jaguar iPace and then Model 3 10%.Model X and Model S are already in a very mature stage of the growth cycle at just 0.01 % and 0.5% growth. Heinrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08864555540391101499noreply@blogger.com