tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post5520275305480911140..comments2024-03-24T15:03:03.162+00:00Comments on EV Sales: China November 2019 (Updated)José Ponteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-59105769867281183632020-01-15T12:53:02.356+00:002020-01-15T12:53:02.356+00:00Thank youThank youAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-20749365404589610102020-01-14T17:14:54.712+00:002020-01-14T17:14:54.712+00:00CAAM also counts Commercial Vehicles. This is pass...CAAM also counts Commercial Vehicles. This is passenger cars only.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-610576677541475382020-01-13T18:51:44.506+00:002020-01-13T18:51:44.506+00:00Hi. Why is there a difference between your data fo...Hi. Why is there a difference between your data for EV sales from China and data from CAAM (NEV sales 95,000 in November)? Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-78407070279609431602019-12-21T02:05:22.914+00:002019-12-21T02:05:22.914+00:00Thank you, readers, for putting me on notice regar...Thank you, readers, for putting me on notice regarding Tesla, i would have never imagined the Model 3 would have pulled out a record month in November!<br /><br />"Captain Tesla" sounds nice :DJosé Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-10386218386809966772019-12-21T00:54:57.084+00:002019-12-21T00:54:57.084+00:00Thanks for the revision.
So the Top-5 in sales las...Thanks for the revision.<br />So the Top-5 in sales last month belongs to BEV. Wonderful, Captain Tesla comes to our rescue again.<br />When the Dec sales comes in, Model-3 will enter Top-10.<br /><br />Starting from 2020-01, it will be a whole different picture since GF-3 will make and sell.Madan Rajannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-30097704097283146452019-12-20T21:34:20.580+00:002019-12-20T21:34:20.580+00:00FWIW, there have been a lot of boats arriving in C...FWIW, there have been a lot of boats arriving in China in previous quarters as well; yet sales were pretty low for some reason... So that's not really much of an indication unfortunately. (Unlike in Europe, were sales seem to align well with boats.)antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-55589875993210341502019-12-20T21:30:23.618+00:002019-12-20T21:30:23.618+00:00Actually, Chinese brands have given up on LFP (exc...Actually, Chinese brands have given up on LFP (except for buses) -- models that haven't switched to "ternary" chemistries (NMC/NCA) aren't competitive any more. Just as it was an early policy decision by the government to bet on LFP, it was a more recent policy decision to reverse this bet.<br /><br />As for NMC-811, first time I hear it mentioned as "safer"... AIUI, it's actually more volatile than earlier NMC formulations like NMC-111. (More similar to NCA, which was already nickel-rich before, and thus also pretty volatile...)antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-85899805714657915752019-12-20T21:22:52.223+00:002019-12-20T21:22:52.223+00:00Well, BYDs BEVs already surpassed their PHEVs in t...Well, BYDs BEVs already surpassed their PHEVs in the latter part of last year and the first half of this year... But now they seem hit by the subsidy cuts just as much as their PHEVs -- so it's really pain all around for BYD... (Apart maybe from their combustion car sales?)<br /><br />Let's hope it's just temporary.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-19921856056036857212019-12-20T18:40:59.671+00:002019-12-20T18:40:59.671+00:00900 Model 3 units is dramatically different than w...900 Model 3 units is dramatically different than what Bloomberg reports -- 5,597 units for Tesla a whole, which would likely imply close to 5,000 for the Model 3. How come this dramatic difference? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-bucks-china-car-slump-040952610.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-41541616334263413732019-12-20T15:11:51.343+00:002019-12-20T15:11:51.343+00:00Why? We are speaking about sales in November, so Q...Why? We are speaking about sales in November, so Q4, and we don't know how many Tesla cars have been delivered this quarter so far. Maybe you are confusing matching each markets deliveries with the official total quarter deliveries that Tesla can only release AFTER the end of that quarter, so only in January. Monthly world deliveries estimates that Jose does every month are estimations based in the numbers that he can retrieved from different sources, very rarely official Tesla numbers. So, if his sources gave to him a too low number of deliveries in China in November this is not a reason to think that US numbers estimates were to high, but maybe it is the monthly deliveries estimates for Tesla for November that should be elevated. Furthermore, this registration numbers in China doesn't mean that all these cars were delivered in November as a lot of them can be being delivered right now! Marsusulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05509601652812167102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-13729370177060824572019-12-20T12:58:13.954+00:002019-12-20T12:58:13.954+00:00It's really hard to force buyers to buy, thoug...It's really hard to force buyers to buy, though, without big incentives. China brands also looking to use safer cells such as LiFEPO4 and NCM 811.Bonairenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-76766329563994310022019-12-20T12:56:50.589+00:002019-12-20T12:56:50.589+00:00Seems Tesla estimate is low.
https://twitter.c...Seems Tesla estimate is low. <br /> https://twitter.com/HighlyGr8ted/status/1207988398696345601/photo/3Bonairenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-77272057828944437802019-12-20T11:11:36.457+00:002019-12-20T11:11:36.457+00:00Then some other country sales must revised down, o...Then some other country sales must revised down, or Tesla will have overunity total sales. I always suspected the US sales are unbelievable hight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-49698327532136516292019-12-20T06:05:18.585+00:002019-12-20T06:05:18.585+00:00There's a report out today that there were 5,5...There's a report out today that there were 5,597 Tesla vehicles registered in China in November. finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-bucks-china-car-slump-040952610.html<br /><br />Apart from that your number seemed low considering that Tesla has sent five fully loaded car transport ships to China this Q, which probably amounts to 5 - 10,000 vehicles. https://twitter.com/fmossotto/status/1093410241461608448?lang=en<br />So do you think your number should be revised..?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-30455687598835875482019-12-20T01:59:51.647+00:002019-12-20T01:59:51.647+00:00X2.
Sales seemed to have bottomed. Imagine some...X2. <br /><br />Sales seemed to have bottomed. Imagine some of it was manufacturers trying to make the govt sweat out a rethink on support. <br /><br />Byd seem to be in a world of hurt with its very good phevs. Could it prompt it to look to export markets??<br /><br />Otherwise its Bevs or bust. Interesting to see numbers for Tesla December and January. Anything less than 5k would be seen as a fail. Any more than 10k would be seen as great success.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-34748947689284713842019-12-20T00:50:11.182+00:002019-12-20T00:50:11.182+00:00Among the Top-5 models, there is 1 PHEV in #5 plac...Among the Top-5 models, there is 1 PHEV in #5 place and amont Top-20 models, there are 5 PHEVs.<br />Total sales of those 5 PHEVs are 4,943 units.<br /><br />BEVs took 3.2% out of the PEVs 3.8%. With a drastic subsidy cut, still these vehicles are surviving and that's great.<br />Automakers must have retooled their plants to vehicle lighter and place more batteries to increase the range.<br />Come 2020-01, Tesla must be starting the sales of Made in China Model-3 and this should prompt the chinese automakers to try the same. Those who cannot afford to buy Model-3 will at least go for some chinese made EV thats pretty close.<br />With the GF-3 in Shanghai taking over chinese sales and some european sales, Fremont should be able to sell more Model-3s in American market.<br /><br />Lets hope for a better 2020. After all average battery prices has gone down to $156 / KWh as per bloomberg estimate.<br />Madan Rajannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-78504783981536096342019-12-19T21:02:46.560+00:002019-12-19T21:02:46.560+00:00What's more, despite the setbacks, this market...What's more, despite the setbacks, this market still has higher EV share than most other places in the world (especially when looking at BEV only) -- not exactly what I'd call "hell"...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-61446166481683264992019-12-19T14:05:12.619+00:002019-12-19T14:05:12.619+00:00Good points, thanks!Good points, thanks!José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-31426293416050935182019-12-19T09:54:30.604+00:002019-12-19T09:54:30.604+00:00While a fall of 48% seems terrible, there are a co...While a fall of 48% seems terrible, there are a couple of silver linings:<br /><br />(a) there is significant growth from the previous month;<br />(b) it is certain that the yearly numbers will show growth (albeit small) and more significant growth in market share; and<br />(c) the sales that are no longer subsidy dependent are much more sustainable, as subsidies are not economically sustainable in the long term.Alexander Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04592007433147176027noreply@blogger.com