tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post7450315039289629300..comments2024-03-24T15:03:03.162+00:00Comments on EV Sales: China November 2020José Ponteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-17588057989848332032021-01-06T15:25:01.849+00:002021-01-06T15:25:01.849+00:00@José according to https://moneyballr.medium.com/m...@José according to https://moneyballr.medium.com/mic-model-y-price-cuts-are-mainly-aimed-at-legacy-luxury-car-makers-e11f5f18a3f0 , a major reason why sedans are popular compared to SUV in China is tax policy -- which doesn't apply to EVs... In other words, Model Y should indeed easily outsell Model 3 in China. (Just like Model X easily outsells Model S...)antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-86662128631004991722020-12-31T02:03:26.532+00:002020-12-31T02:03:26.532+00:00I bet you these prices don't cover all costs o...I bet you these prices don't cover all costs of developing, projecting, safely operating, and decommissioning these plants... Nuclear lobbyists always conveniently "forget" about these. Not to mention insurance: if nuclear plants were actually insured privately to cover the worst case, instead of offloading responsibility on society at large, it would be impossible to build any nuclear plants ever.<br /><br />(And even if these prices were real, they still wouldn't undercut renewables, except *maybe* for the Chinese ones -- for now. By the time any new reactor would actually be finished building, renewables will have at least halved in costs again.)<br /><br />And BTW, "baseload" is obsolete. It's useless in a grid with intermittent generation. Only dispatchable sources complement intermittent ones -- and nuclear is the exact opposite of dispatchable.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-30172514796450632832020-12-31T01:50:02.323+00:002020-12-31T01:50:02.323+00:00I can promise you that no family ever *prefers* su...I can promise you that no family ever *prefers* such a tiny car. Some hip singles, sure: but not families. The *only* reason why a family ever buys such a car is if it's extremely affordable. Which the Wuling would no longer be with a 500 km battery -- if it was even technically possible to give it such...<br /><br />(And you are also ignoring that there isn't even much point in giving it such a range, since with a 100 km/h top speed, it would be very painful for inter-city travel anyway... Not to mention crash safety.)antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-1093012288208103872020-12-31T01:46:11.321+00:002020-12-31T01:46:11.321+00:00Your hypothesising ignores physical realities: the...Your hypothesising ignores physical realities: there is no way they can just snap their fingers and increase battery density by 60% (for the Baojun) or 200% (for the Wuling). The Wuling could gain some 40 - 50% by switching to a more expensive nickel-based battery -- but that's the limit. Significantly higher density batteries won't hit the mainstream for at least half a decade; and batteries with densities to give the Wuling a 500 km range probably not within a decade.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-75393167247873588172020-12-30T18:06:04.172+00:002020-12-30T18:06:04.172+00:00u r thinking about the $8 / watt reactor built in ...u r thinking about the $8 / watt reactor built in Britain. So sad, brits were fooled by chinese/french consortium or probably strong pound to blame.<br />Chinas hualong-1 standardized reactor built in china, pakistan, indonesia costs $2,5 / watt while the russian reactors built in turkey, bangladesh costs $4,5 / watt. On this basis, nuclear is still cheaper and can take the place of baseload, while renewable can provide peak load and in smaller cities.<br /><br />Lets get rid of fossil fuels as early as possible.famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-14368886003166941162020-12-30T16:28:32.687+00:002020-12-30T16:28:32.687+00:00Smart For-2, Fiat 500, mini (kei) cars in Japan: T...Smart For-2, Fiat 500, mini (kei) cars in Japan: There are millions of sardine cans rolling in the World with 500 km range. Add another 100 km if its diesel powered. I prefer all cars with 5 door and seating for 4. But some with family of just 1 or 2 prefer such small cars.<br />Whats wrong if electric cars also join that bandwagon with 500 km range.<br /><br />Baojun E300 already has 300 km range, I guess they may E500 soon and so does the Wuling MiniEV.famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-87530496927795909212020-12-30T03:40:22.659+00:002020-12-30T03:40:22.659+00:00Wrong. New wind an solar are *much* cheaper than n...Wrong. New wind an solar are *much* cheaper than nuclear -- per unit of energy generated, not just per unit of peak capacity. That's a fact. Look it up if you don't believe me. <br /><br />Yes, we need to get rid of fossils as soon as possible. No, that doesn't require nuclear. There is absolutely no reason to build new nuclear instead of building more renewables. It just costs more and takes a lot longer.<br /><br />And talking about "respect", please leave my place of residence out of it. I'm a smart person no matter where I live. I'm not responsible for the corrupt government catering to fossil interests. I didn't vote for them.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-8235114046841719412020-12-30T03:13:31.065+00:002020-12-30T03:13:31.065+00:00Given the significant weight penalty, it would lik...Given the significant weight penalty, it would likely take more like 50 kWh to get 500 km... But of course that's purely hypothetical, since there is no way they could fit such a battery.<br /><br />LOL... Using this cramped sardine can for business or longer travel, or -- best of all -- a taxi? Do you seriously not realise how ridiculously absurd this suggestion is?...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-13902759241212966492020-12-30T02:54:49.231+00:002020-12-30T02:54:49.231+00:00LOL... Of course you are entitled to think what yo...LOL... Of course you are entitled to think what you want -- as I am entitled to point out potential flaws in your assumptions :-P<br /><br />While Tesla isn't omniscient, they probably have a better insight into the market than we do... Plus, there was a recent report from a local analyst that predicted much bigger potential for the Model Y. (Once cheaper variants are available...) And let's not forget that Tesla has pricing power to bring demand in line with their current production capacity to a certain degree...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-91398193701685414772020-12-29T22:00:41.832+00:002020-12-29T22:00:41.832+00:00I believe cars > 400 km range gets $3.200 subsi...I believe cars > 400 km range gets $3.200 subsidy and a 50% subsidy cut will reduce by $1.600.<br />Cars > 400 km range costs > $20.000 there and an extra $1.600 is not going to impact much. May be sales goes down by 20%, but will come back more robustly in 3 months and there will be more confidence that BEVs sells with very little subsidies. And by end of 2021, they can cut even the other 50%. By end of 2022, average worldwide battery prices will hit $100 / KWh mark and this will happen in China much earlier especially for LFP battery.<br />famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-2231187322657206012020-12-29T21:56:06.894+00:002020-12-29T21:56:06.894+00:00Wuling MiniEV weighs 571 kg without battery. Its 1...Wuling MiniEV weighs 571 kg without battery. Its 14,7 KWh battery weighs 134 kg and goes 170 km NEDC. For 500 km range (NEDC), it will take 43,2 KWh battery add another 2,8 KWh for the extra battery weight and thats 46 KWh battery. At current average battery price of $137 / KWh, it will cost $6.302. However the LFP battery that is used there and bought in high volume may cost only $100 / KWh which means $4.600. It doubles the price, yes, but those who use it for business or taxis or travel longer frequently may still buy it even it costs $9.000. After all electric cars are much smoother and should drive as good as those cars in $15.000 range and will fetch the return from Day-1. Baojun E300 had 305 km (NEDC) and costs around $10.000.<br />Just count the months and it will be in. <br /><br />https://pushevs.com/2020/08/26/wuling-hong-guang-mini-ev-had-a-strong-first-full-sales-month/<br />famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-20825188333057109952020-12-29T21:36:39.005+00:002020-12-29T21:36:39.005+00:00As you are speaking, 75% of the worlds energy come...As you are speaking, 75% of the worlds energy comes from fossil fuels which spews out so much CO2, CH4 and other toxic substances which are much more poisonous than any shit (human / animal).<br />How long do you want this to continue until renewables reach 100%. <br />Add 4.5 MW of solar capacity for every 1 MW of nuclear capacity + battery + computers to control all those and the cost will exceed nuclear. I support renewable, but only at expense of fossil and not nuclear.<br />As we speak, many nuclear reactors are under construction. <br /><br />https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx<br /><br />BTW, you better be more respectful in writing. Because you live in Germany does not make you a very smart person. Germans are still burning lots of coal.<br />famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-42810783343694433542020-12-29T09:35:26.464+00:002020-12-29T09:35:26.464+00:00@Famlin - I guess we will have to wait, but for no...@Famlin - I guess we will have to wait, but for now, i'll stick to my guns.<br /><br />@Antrik - Well, Tesla is entitled to think whatever it wants, and i also have the right to disagree, right? That's how democracies work...José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-45844096954267849592020-12-29T00:02:25.583+00:002020-12-29T00:02:25.583+00:00Capacity factor means shit when solar and wind, ev...Capacity factor means shit when solar and wind, even with batteries, are still cheaper to cover the same electricity needs. And there is plenty of wind and sun to cover all electricity needs many times over. Nuclear is dead -- the lobbyists and shills just can't admit to it...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-77844964446850567622020-12-28T23:55:47.380+00:002020-12-28T23:55:47.380+00:00A 500 km battery for the Wuling Mini would weigh a...A 500 km battery for the Wuling Mini would weigh about as much as the entire car, cost more than the entire car, and take up like half the cabin...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-84769780756285271292020-12-28T23:52:51.126+00:002020-12-28T23:52:51.126+00:00@José Tesla seems to think otherwise, going by the...@José Tesla seems to think otherwise, going by the production capacity they are building for Model Y in Shanghai...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-18749725038823899582020-12-28T14:44:39.714+00:002020-12-28T14:44:39.714+00:00Crossovers outsell cars in China & USA. Even i...Crossovers outsell cars in China & USA. Even in cars, there are quite a lot of hatches/wagon. All that automakers are going to do raise the height of wagons to 1.500 mm and call it a crossover. Of course Wuling MiniEV with 3 doors is still a car. I wish they launch another model that is slightly longer and has 5 doors.<br /><br />So sedans are on the way out.famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-2745271384120801222020-12-28T14:34:42.257+00:002020-12-28T14:34:42.257+00:00Nuclear runs @ 92% capacity factor which means it ...Nuclear runs @ 92% capacity factor which means it runs for 8060 out of 8760 hours / year. Ideal for plugin vehicles which charges at night when electricity consumption is lowest because of lights and other equipments being off in homes, stores, offices.<br />Wind hits 40% while solar has 20% and hydro reduces when dams run out of water.<br />Remember, 75% of worlds energy is controlled by fossil fuels and we have to include nuclear in the mix to reduce fossil fuels as fast as possible. When the plugin sales increases, Germany & Italy will turn the nuclear on again. <br />With 1 standardized design, China, Russia, India are building many nuclear plants.famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-61639904565286588822020-12-27T23:37:08.662+00:002020-12-27T23:37:08.662+00:00I would be very surprised if the Model Y could out...I would be very surprised if the Model Y could outsell the Model 3 in China, Chinese still prefer sedans.<br /><br />But for #1, i would bet on the Wuling Mini EVJosé Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-28052590670054388892020-12-27T22:26:19.103+00:002020-12-27T22:26:19.103+00:00Wind+solar is growing much faster than nuclear, ev...Wind+solar is growing much faster than nuclear, even in China.<br /><br />(As it should: since not only does nuclear come with undeniable issues, but it's simply more expensive; and takes way longer to build...)antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-74320364937226622162020-12-27T22:22:16.648+00:002020-12-27T22:22:16.648+00:00Way too early for another massive subsidy cut, if ...Way too early for another massive subsidy cut, if they want the market to grow rather than shrink...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-44720739299816709052020-12-27T22:21:58.899+00:002020-12-27T22:21:58.899+00:00Wuling HongGuang Mini EV seems to be a revolution....Wuling HongGuang Mini EV seems to be a revolution. If they can offer a 200 km, 300 km, 400 km and a 500 km versions, it could be picked up by different customers for different needs. It could challenge all 2-wheelers, 3-wheelers & 4-wheelers. A wonderful 2+2 seater for small families.<br />famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-37976322605287162272020-12-25T23:56:45.355+00:002020-12-25T23:56:45.355+00:00Just FYI: Only 19% of the electricity in USA came ...Just FYI: Only 19% of the electricity in USA came from Coal in 2020-10 while 13,5% came from renewable excluding hydro and this sector is growing by leaps and bounds. I am sure the same is happening in Europe & China as well. So the PEV being coal fired argument is slowly fading and the renewable powered is increasing. Natgas is certainly cleaner than oil. Ultimately Coal and Oil are getting pummeled by many cleaner sources including nuclear which is growing rapidly in China to power the PEVs.<br />famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-22110705782026272532020-12-25T23:16:32.663+00:002020-12-25T23:16:32.663+00:00If the global PEV sales are crusing towards 400.00...If the global PEV sales are crusing towards 400.000 mark and china sold 198.066 PEVs, then its around 50% share.<br />With 60% share of global steel output, 80% share of global battery output, and battery prices going down from $1,100 / KWh (2010) to $157 / KWh (2019) and $137 / KWh at end of 2020, they could pump more PEVs and gain a 50% share in global automotive market.<br /><br />Time for all automakers to take the competition seriously and ramp up their PEV sales.famlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-89382172088524172662020-12-25T15:45:52.527+00:002020-12-25T15:45:52.527+00:00198.066 is a massive #. Congratulations.
BEVs take...198.066 is a massive #. Congratulations.<br />BEVs take Top-7 and 16 out of Top-20<br /><br />Nice to see 2 vehicles (MiniEV & Model 3) hitting 5 digit sales.<br />From a near collapse in Feb to splendid recovery is great. <br />At the end of 2019-11, they had 1,041,237 sales.<br />At the end of 2020-11, they had 1,043,326 sales.<br />Just a slight improvement, but this happened despite a drastic cut in subsidy and range increase to qualify.<br />2020-12 sales should be much higher.<br />With market in high gear, they can cut the subsidies by another 50% and let the PEVs stand on their own.<br /><br />Meanwhile VW ends production of e-Golf, nearly 150.000 sold.<br />https://electrek.co/2020/12/23/vw-ends-production-electric-e-golf-favor-id3/<br />famlinnoreply@blogger.com