tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post8718715537634625696..comments2024-03-24T15:03:03.162+00:00Comments on EV Sales: China March 2019José Ponteshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-86812822003324715362019-05-11T00:10:11.386+00:002019-05-11T00:10:11.386+00:00Jose,
BYD deliveries in April 2019:
BEV: 16,116
P...Jose,<br /><br />BYD deliveries in April 2019:<br />BEV: 16,116<br />PHEV: 6,619<br /><br />Not as many as in March 2019, but still good numbers.<br /><br />CheersNeohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05209618863383544499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-68814972597524662102019-05-08T16:41:04.261+00:002019-05-08T16:41:04.261+00:00not really. only some 900 units this year.not really. only some 900 units this year.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-18614599204763527922019-05-08T10:26:23.997+00:002019-05-08T10:26:23.997+00:00Well, China will certainly be the toughest ground ...Well, China will certainly be the toughest ground for Model 3 in terms of EV market share, simply because China has a way way larger market for non-premium EVs... In its own segment though I think the locally-made Model 3 will actually do better than in Europe. Europe has a lot of established local brands that are perceived as premium. (Although their EV offerings thus far are non-inspiring...) China doesn't have any local premium EVs to speak of thus far.<br /><br />(Nio is positioned as premium, but their specs are rather ridiculous for the price they are asking... Others haven't entered production yet.)antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-48488374724659058352019-05-07T23:36:45.168+00:002019-05-07T23:36:45.168+00:00Jose,
The Nissan Sylphy is a very popular car mod...Jose,<br /><br />The Nissan Sylphy is a very popular car model in China.<br /><br />The electric version of the Nissan Sylphy has been on the market for many months now. <br /><br />Has it gained some popularity in China? <br /><br />How many units of the Nissan Sylphy have been delivered in China in Q1 2019?<br /><br />CheersNeohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05209618863383544499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-41446987890389219712019-05-07T15:19:24.043+00:002019-05-07T15:19:24.043+00:00It is still too early to know the real demand for ...It is still too early to know the real demand for the Tesla Model 3, maybe only in 2020 we will know for sure.<br /><br />One thing is certain: It will be the toughest ground for Tesla.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-68024386540854526162019-04-29T04:57:58.914+00:002019-04-29T04:57:58.914+00:00You know very well that the Chinese Q1 deliveries ...You know very well that the Chinese Q1 deliveries were constrained mostly by production and logistics rather than demand. (Also, the Chinese aren't stupid: they know they will be able to buy locally made Model 3 much cheaper pretty soon...)<br /><br />The Shanghai factory will be producing cars from the beginning. (I.e. likely this year.) While *some* parts initially will be imported (the battery assembly and seat production lines will only be installed in Q1 2019), all the stamping, body welding, painting etc. will be in place this year.<br /><br />While there is admittedly a lack of direct comparisons, everything I have heard so far suggests that Chinese brand cars are still pretty crappy by global standards. That's why the Chinese are buying foreign brands when they can afford it. Although Chinese makers have aspirations of setting up premium brands, it will likely be years until they can compete. (Just look at the smartphone market: while Chinese brands took over the lower end of the local market by storm, it took several more years until they were able to put a dent in Apple sales... And everyone knows automobiles are a *much* harder nut to crack.)<br /><br />What's more, they aren't all that cheap either. Only recently have Chinese EV makers managed to match the specs (though likely not the quality) of global brands like Nissan or Hyundai at lower pre-subsidy prices. Unless a lot changes in the next couple of months, the Chinese-made Model 3 will still be a *much* more premium offering at only slightly higher prices. It will be unmatched in the Chinese market much like everywhere else.antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-20422783867178332462019-04-28T10:28:00.218+00:002019-04-28T10:28:00.218+00:00Peter,
If there was a huge brand following of Te...Peter,<br /> <br />If there was a huge brand following of Tesla in China they would have registered more than 5300 units in the 1st quarter. Look at the cars that make the top 5. Chinese make pretty decent quality cars on the cheap which Tesla has failed to do. I am sure if it is still around by the time its factory is producing cars (no putting together kits) it might be able to get the price of the Model 3 down $5-10K. The question is what happens to the trim and quality of the car for that to happen? <br /> <br />The other problem facing Tesla is domestic brand loyalty over foreign. We see this in almost every market. People like to buy a domestic brand over an foreign brand. Those are just some of the problems facing Tesla. But let's say Tesla can build a high quality car for $30-35K that people in China like. How many would they sell a year? 30K, 40K? If you look at last years numbers and exclude the top selling model, the 2nd most sold EV was only able to sell 47.4K units. Let’s say Tesla could sell 50K model 3s, does that justify building a factory in China? What does that do for their overall model 3 yearly delivery number?Matt B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13473119671256947770noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-52387687480540866072019-04-28T05:00:47.085+00:002019-04-28T05:00:47.085+00:00April deliveries thus far have been only cars that...April deliveries thus far have been only cars that arrived in Q1 but didn't make their way to the buyers before. Only now new ships are beginning to arrive. Early Q2 deliveries are thus in no way indicative of orders.<br /><br />Sure, we shouldn't count on a repetition of the March peak -- but beating e-Golf in Q2 should be no trouble.<br /><br />And no, other companies cannot do the same. They still haven't even managed to match the 2012 Model S...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-21333175551755673592019-04-27T06:07:43.589+00:002019-04-27T06:07:43.589+00:00Norway April statistics show already a steep slump...Norway April statistics show already a steep slump of Model 3 sales of -82%!!!. eGolf sales in Norway are at the same level as Model 3. Also Netherlands Model 3 sales slumped -76%. Elon Musk has rightly seen that it is possible to enter the EV market over the premium segment, where economics do not matter. He did not increase the inventive level of EV and other companies can do the same what Tesla does. Self driving is what Musk can show he can do, yet the issue here is insurance.Heinrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08864555540391101499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-7896293058426359412019-04-27T01:40:03.350+00:002019-04-27T01:40:03.350+00:00BYD shows why the Model 3 will not do well in Chin...BYD shows why the Model 3 will not do well in China? That's a total non-sequitur...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-74310425268211463662019-04-26T18:44:49.926+00:002019-04-26T18:44:49.926+00:00Early May.Early May.José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-62039699303017420502019-04-26T18:43:47.101+00:002019-04-26T18:43:47.101+00:00The first Tang EVs were delivered in March, but i ...The first Tang EVs were delivered in March, but i didn't knew the e1 was already being delivered in April.<br /><br />It looks BYD will have another smashing month!<br />José Ponteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13927229481945352747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-16106317790049689372019-04-26T14:58:05.802+00:002019-04-26T14:58:05.802+00:00Matt, was thinking about the same what is the stab...Matt, was thinking about the same what is the stable demand for midel 3 in China. Until it will be shipped from US it is very expensive so it will be subdued but after giga 3 is complete model 3 will be almost on price parity with local competition but much better product, then i believe they can do 200k cars next year only in china and growing to even more. They are the only foreigner with support of Chinese authority and huge brand following Peter Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11548031020475589544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-57347811273730312502019-04-26T06:54:14.629+00:002019-04-26T06:54:14.629+00:00Losses are related to ramp production and longer l...Losses are related to ramp production and longer logistics. S&X models sales drop are production related, because it has better powertrain.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14026062995530437042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-53605499039609220122019-04-26T06:28:45.545+00:002019-04-26T06:28:45.545+00:00Most of that loss is attributable to deliveries in...Most of that loss is attributable to deliveries in Q1 being lower than what is needed to make Tesla profitable at the current size of the organisation. That delivery slump is mostly a result of logistics and other temporary challenges, though. They seem confident the numbers will be back to normal in Q2. (Bears keep claiming that there is a permanent demand shortfall -- but I don't believe that, since Tesla is pretty explicit about this, and lying about something like that would get them in serious legal trouble...)<br /><br />Having said that, it's also true that they lowered Model 3 prices to match comparable combustion cars, while they haven't yet reached the needed production efficiency to achieve the target gross margin at these prices. Efficiency is improving each quarter though, while average selling prices seem to have stabilised now at a much higher level than originally expected -- so it's only a matter of time to get there...<br /><br />Regarding battery prices, I believe the importance of this is being overestimated nowadays. (BTW, there is no such word as "akku" in English. The term "accumulator" does exist, but I have never seen it used in the context of rechargeable batteries.) At current battery prices, everything else being equal, it should already be possible to sell mid-range BEVs (~50 kWh) at less than $5,000 price premium over entry-level gasoline cars -- while most existing BEV offerings still have a >$10,000 price premium... Although battery cost obviously still is -- and will continue to be -- an important competitive advantage, it's no longer the major reason for EVs being too expensive.<br /><br />Other factors are production scale; the lack of dedicated, fully optimised BEV platforms created from scratch; and failure to offer a wide range of power train and other options for each model, in order to be able to achieve a low entry price while keeping average margins profitable. Thus far, Tesla was the only maker doing all this. (Which is why Model 3 is the only EV competitive on price with comparable combustion cars...) The first legacy maker to get it right seems to be VW, with their MEB-based models coming next year. And it shows in their pricing: they are promising that these will cost the same as diesel models of comparable power output. (Which is a couple thousands more than gasoline models of the same power level -- in line with my claim of what the price difference should be at current battery prices.)<br /><br />It should be noted that EVs do not need to reach cost parity with gasoline cars to be ready for the masses. Before Dieselgate, most Europeans were willing to pay the premium for diesel engines in return for fuel cost savings. With EVs offering much larger cost savings, there is no reason to believe people won't be willing to pay as much for them as for diesel cars...antriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-29171547643476835972019-04-26T06:22:45.311+00:002019-04-26T06:22:45.311+00:00BYD alone shows why the Model 3 will not do well i...BYD alone shows why the Model 3 will not do well in China and building a factory there is just a waste of money. If you look at the number of cars sold just in the top 5 you will see that makes up 83,880 units. Q2 should give us an idea of the organic demand for the Model 3 in China. I say less than 20K.Matt B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13473119671256947770noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-39141724230919262122019-04-26T06:16:44.497+00:002019-04-26T06:16:44.497+00:00We have already seen that a mass market BEV is pos...We have already seen that a mass market BEV is possible with the Nissan Leaf and a mass market PHEV with the Toyota Prius or are you saying you would like for Tesla to show they can sell a mass market EV? <br /><br />Matt B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13473119671256947770noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-6493881172293913782019-04-26T06:12:50.266+00:002019-04-26T06:12:50.266+00:00When will we get the official Model 3 numbers for ...When will we get the official Model 3 numbers for March from China?Matt B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13473119671256947770noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-14344499622095959292019-04-26T05:08:48.383+00:002019-04-26T05:08:48.383+00:00I recently saw some pictures of the first e1-hando...I recently saw some pictures of the first e1-handovers in Beijing, so sales of that have started in April. I believe tang ev600 has also started, at least many dealers have demo models available. jordijuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11247450400602747207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-86300045162473112542019-04-25T12:48:54.608+00:002019-04-25T12:48:54.608+00:00From the posted data, Q12019 standings are:
1st B...From the posted data, Q12019 standings are:<br /><br />1st BYD Auto with 64652 registrations<br />2nd BAIC Motor with 19343 registrations<br />3rd SAIC Motor with 18871 registrations<br />4th Geely Auto with 16037 registrations<br />5th Great Wall Motors with 13996 registrationsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-57128060100214217022019-04-25T06:50:21.745+00:002019-04-25T06:50:21.745+00:00Jose,
When will BYD start production and deliveri...Jose,<br /><br />When will BYD start production and deliveries of:<br /><br />BYD Tang EV600<br />BYD e1<br /><br />Cheers Neohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05209618863383544499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1399793419425111085.post-89195100851156570762019-04-25T06:38:28.374+00:002019-04-25T06:38:28.374+00:00Tesla just reported a 1q loss of over USD 700 mill...Tesla just reported a 1q loss of over USD 700 mill. This is now the critical phase to show that a mass market on electric vehicle market is possible. Model S and Model X sales steeply slumped. Competition in this field is now much bigger. The market needs now much better and cheaper akkus for becoming a mass market.Heinrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08864555540391101499noreply@blogger.com