I. A Year Ago - Hits and Misses
A year ago, i made some forecasts regarding 2014, let's see how they worked out:
USA
* Leaf will be #1 - Hit;
* Ford will fight for #1 in the brands ranking - It was #2, slightly ahead of Chevrolet, but 7% behind Nissan;
* 130-150.000 sales for the US EV market - 119.804 units, slightly below the prediction boundaries.
Japan
* Close fight between Nissan Leaf and the Outlander PHEV - Not really, Mitsu as a brand stayed 2.000 units behind Nissan's hatch;
* 36-39.000 units - 32.418 sales, big disappointment.
France
* Renault Zoe #1 - How hard could it be to forecast this one?
* 15-18.000 units - 16.294 sales, the final push allowed this one to hit the spot.
Germany
* BMW i3 and VW e-Up! and e-Golf running for #1 with the Smart ED - The i3 won the Best Seller trophy, but the other two stayed behind Smart, all while being also outrun by the foreigner Renault Zoe.
* 10.000 sales for the German EV Market - 13.242 sales, (finally) well above expectations.
Netherlands
* Volvo and Mitsubishi will fight for #1 - The Outlander PHEV was responsible for 50% of all plug-in sales here, while Volvo was Second with 21% share. Big difference;
* Somewhere between 15-19.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - 15.270 sales, not a disappointment, but nothing to brag about...
Norway
* Close fight between the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, VW e-Golf and Mitsu Outlander PHEV - The Leaf (7 times monthly Best-Seller) proved to be pretty resilient, resisting the Model S (3 times Best Seller) and the e-Golf (2 times) attacks and ending in the leadership, with 24% share, 4% ahead of the american car and double the sales of the e-Golf. As for the SUV, it was the best-selling PHEV, but only #6 in the ranking, plug-in hybrids still have a long way to go in Norway;
* Volkswagen will win the Manufacturers Title - Hit;
* EV Share between 12-14% in Norway - 13,93%, coming along the best expectations.
China
* BYD Qin #1 - Only Kandi could threaten the Qin leadership, and even then, it didn't scared too much;
* Somewhere between 23-28.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - Some 60.000 units, the Big Forecast Miss Of The Year, did anyone saw this coming?
II. Engines of Growth
* By EV Share
One of them is pretty easy to discover, after all, the Norwegian EV performance is profusely documented (13,93% in '14 vs 6,10% in '13), but there were other surprises, like Sweden (1,66% in '14 vs 0,71% in '13) or Estonia (1,57% vs 0,68%). But the most impressive market is Iceland, with the EV Share in Iceland jumping from 0,21% in 2012, to 0,94% in '13, to 2,71 last year! With all the hydro-thermal energy they have and the small distances associated to an island, EV sales in Iceland should continue to grow exponentially and maybe become something like a Second Norway...
* By Volume
EV Share is important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case China made all the headlines, with 40.000 more units being sold in 2014 than in the previous year...
The USA progress (A 20K increase) looks small by comparison, but it was still the Second largest, ahead of Norway (From 9 to 20K), and the surprising UK (4 to 14K!), even Germany progressed significantly, with an increase of Seven Thousand units.
III. 2014 vs 2013
Let's compare #1's of this year with the ones of 2013:
Volt - Canada (Winner since 2011)
Leaf - USA (In '13 - Volt); Japan (Like in 2011 and 2013); Norway (Like in 2012 and 2013); Spain (Like in '13); Denmark (Like in '13); Italy (Twizy in '13); Estonia (Leaf in '13); Iceland (Leaf); Ireland (Leaf since 2011).
Outlander PHEV - Netherlands (Like in 2013); UK (Leaf won in 2013); Sweden (V60 Plug-In in '13); Australia (Leaf in '13); Finland (V60 Plug-In); New Zealand (I-Miev).
Zoe - France (Like in 2013); Austria (Like in '13).
BMW i3 - Germany (In '13 - Smart Fortwo ED); Hong Kong (Fluence ZE in '13); Portugal (Twizy); Czech Republic (Leaf); Poland (Leaf).
Model S - Switzerland (In '13 - Zoe); Belgium (V60 Plug-in).
Renault Samsung SM3 ZE - South Korea (Like in '13).
BYD Qin - China (In '13 - QQ3 EV).
Examining this, we can that Chevy Volt only resists in Canada, losing the USA for the Leaf, but the japanese hatch loses the UK and Australia for the Outlander PHEV, Mitsu's SUV also steals two of the three trophies the V60 (Sweden(!) and Finland), with the other (Belgium) being lost for Tesla, which also collected the Swiss #1, the Renault Zoe resisted in France and Austria, while the Twizy simply disappeared from the map. Finally, the BMW i3 has won its domestic market, while also collecting some secondary markets.
IV. Other Markets
For some reason (Low volumes, rare data, etc) some markets have been left-out, here is a chance to know some of them:
Israel: 6 Nissan Leaf sold in 2014, while last year, there had been 436 Renault Fluence ZE sold, as well as 24 Nissan Leaf. This market is the sole market where EV's are having a bad time.
Slovenia: Tesla Model S - 13(!) units; Opel Ampera (2); Peugeot iOn (1); BMW i3 (1). Brilliant performance by Tesla, something that Nicola Tesla would be proud of...The existing Tesla Supercharger in Slovenia should also help, of course. Anyway, 0.05% EV Share is how this small market currently stands, with talks that VW will finally join it, things could only get better in 2015!
Brazil: Renault Twizy - 34 units; BMW i3 (30). These are the first steps of a market with tremendous potential, will 2015 be the Year Zero?
Turkey: Renault Twizy - 18 units. Far from the 92 Renault Fluence ZE registered in 2012, the Turkish EV slowly rebounding from the 2013 sales slump (Only one unit sold then).
UAE: Renault Twizy - 33 units; BMW i8 (1). Yes, plug-ins have arrived here, and the i8 should sell like hot cakes here, thanks to its appealing design.
Slovakia: Nissan Leaf - 24 units.
Morocco: Renault Twizy - 35 units. Building on the 7 units registered in 2013, the french thingy is creating a small market for it here, maybe Renault should invest in promting the Twizy in warmer-climate countries, where the lack of real windows don't impact so much.
V. Predictions for the G8
USA - 150.000 units/year, Leaf #1;
Japan - 32.000 units/year, Leaf #1;
France - 19.000 units/year, Zoe #1;
Netherlands - 19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;
Germany - 20.000 units/year, German Car #1;
China - 120.000 units/year, Qin #1.
Norway - 25.000 units/year, Leaf #1.
UK - 20.000 untis, Outlander PHEV #1.
A year ago, i made some forecasts regarding 2014, let's see how they worked out:
USA
* Leaf will be #1 - Hit;
* Ford will fight for #1 in the brands ranking - It was #2, slightly ahead of Chevrolet, but 7% behind Nissan;
* 130-150.000 sales for the US EV market - 119.804 units, slightly below the prediction boundaries.
Japan
* Close fight between Nissan Leaf and the Outlander PHEV - Not really, Mitsu as a brand stayed 2.000 units behind Nissan's hatch;
* 36-39.000 units - 32.418 sales, big disappointment.
* Renault Zoe #1 - How hard could it be to forecast this one?
* 15-18.000 units - 16.294 sales, the final push allowed this one to hit the spot.
* BMW i3 and VW e-Up! and e-Golf running for #1 with the Smart ED - The i3 won the Best Seller trophy, but the other two stayed behind Smart, all while being also outrun by the foreigner Renault Zoe.
* 10.000 sales for the German EV Market - 13.242 sales, (finally) well above expectations.
Netherlands
* Volvo and Mitsubishi will fight for #1 - The Outlander PHEV was responsible for 50% of all plug-in sales here, while Volvo was Second with 21% share. Big difference;
* Somewhere between 15-19.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - 15.270 sales, not a disappointment, but nothing to brag about...
Norway
* Close fight between the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, VW e-Golf and Mitsu Outlander PHEV - The Leaf (7 times monthly Best-Seller) proved to be pretty resilient, resisting the Model S (3 times Best Seller) and the e-Golf (2 times) attacks and ending in the leadership, with 24% share, 4% ahead of the american car and double the sales of the e-Golf. As for the SUV, it was the best-selling PHEV, but only #6 in the ranking, plug-in hybrids still have a long way to go in Norway;
* Volkswagen will win the Manufacturers Title - Hit;
* EV Share between 12-14% in Norway - 13,93%, coming along the best expectations.
China
* BYD Qin #1 - Only Kandi could threaten the Qin leadership, and even then, it didn't scared too much;
* Somewhere between 23-28.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - Some 60.000 units, the Big Forecast Miss Of The Year, did anyone saw this coming?
II. Engines of Growth
* By EV Share
One of them is pretty easy to discover, after all, the Norwegian EV performance is profusely documented (13,93% in '14 vs 6,10% in '13), but there were other surprises, like Sweden (1,66% in '14 vs 0,71% in '13) or Estonia (1,57% vs 0,68%). But the most impressive market is Iceland, with the EV Share in Iceland jumping from 0,21% in 2012, to 0,94% in '13, to 2,71 last year! With all the hydro-thermal energy they have and the small distances associated to an island, EV sales in Iceland should continue to grow exponentially and maybe become something like a Second Norway...
* By Volume
EV Share is important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case China made all the headlines, with 40.000 more units being sold in 2014 than in the previous year...
The USA progress (A 20K increase) looks small by comparison, but it was still the Second largest, ahead of Norway (From 9 to 20K), and the surprising UK (4 to 14K!), even Germany progressed significantly, with an increase of Seven Thousand units.
III. 2014 vs 2013
Let's compare #1's of this year with the ones of 2013:
Volt - Canada (Winner since 2011)
Leaf - USA (In '13 - Volt); Japan (Like in 2011 and 2013); Norway (Like in 2012 and 2013); Spain (Like in '13); Denmark (Like in '13); Italy (Twizy in '13); Estonia (Leaf in '13); Iceland (Leaf); Ireland (Leaf since 2011).
Outlander PHEV - Netherlands (Like in 2013); UK (Leaf won in 2013); Sweden (V60 Plug-In in '13); Australia (Leaf in '13); Finland (V60 Plug-In); New Zealand (I-Miev).
Zoe - France (Like in 2013); Austria (Like in '13).
BMW i3 - Germany (In '13 - Smart Fortwo ED); Hong Kong (Fluence ZE in '13); Portugal (Twizy); Czech Republic (Leaf); Poland (Leaf).
Model S - Switzerland (In '13 - Zoe); Belgium (V60 Plug-in).
Renault Samsung SM3 ZE - South Korea (Like in '13).
BYD Qin - China (In '13 - QQ3 EV).
Examining this, we can that Chevy Volt only resists in Canada, losing the USA for the Leaf, but the japanese hatch loses the UK and Australia for the Outlander PHEV, Mitsu's SUV also steals two of the three trophies the V60 (Sweden(!) and Finland), with the other (Belgium) being lost for Tesla, which also collected the Swiss #1, the Renault Zoe resisted in France and Austria, while the Twizy simply disappeared from the map. Finally, the BMW i3 has won its domestic market, while also collecting some secondary markets.
IV. Other Markets
For some reason (Low volumes, rare data, etc) some markets have been left-out, here is a chance to know some of them:
Israel: 6 Nissan Leaf sold in 2014, while last year, there had been 436 Renault Fluence ZE sold, as well as 24 Nissan Leaf. This market is the sole market where EV's are having a bad time.
Slovenia: Tesla Model S - 13(!) units; Opel Ampera (2); Peugeot iOn (1); BMW i3 (1). Brilliant performance by Tesla, something that Nicola Tesla would be proud of...The existing Tesla Supercharger in Slovenia should also help, of course. Anyway, 0.05% EV Share is how this small market currently stands, with talks that VW will finally join it, things could only get better in 2015!
Brazil: Renault Twizy - 34 units; BMW i3 (30). These are the first steps of a market with tremendous potential, will 2015 be the Year Zero?
Turkey: Renault Twizy - 18 units. Far from the 92 Renault Fluence ZE registered in 2012, the Turkish EV slowly rebounding from the 2013 sales slump (Only one unit sold then).
UAE: Renault Twizy - 33 units; BMW i8 (1). Yes, plug-ins have arrived here, and the i8 should sell like hot cakes here, thanks to its appealing design.
Slovakia: Nissan Leaf - 24 units.
Morocco: Renault Twizy - 35 units. Building on the 7 units registered in 2013, the french thingy is creating a small market for it here, maybe Renault should invest in promting the Twizy in warmer-climate countries, where the lack of real windows don't impact so much.
V. Predictions for the G8
USA - 150.000 units/year, Leaf #1;
Japan - 32.000 units/year, Leaf #1;
France - 19.000 units/year, Zoe #1;
Netherlands - 19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;
Germany - 20.000 units/year, German Car #1;
China - 120.000 units/year, Qin #1.
Norway - 25.000 units/year, Leaf #1.
UK - 20.000 untis, Outlander PHEV #1.
USA gas prices are low. Should keep growth under 10-15%. Appx 132k.
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