| 2016 Forecasts | Jose | Roland | Viktor |
| World Total | 850.000 | 850.000 | N/A |
| World #1 | BYD Tang | Mit. Outlander PHEV | N/A |
| China Total | 400.000 | 350.000 | 350.000 |
| China #1 | BYD Tang | BYD Tang | BYD Tang |
| USA Total | 175.000 | 170.000 | 170.000 |
| USA #1 | Chevrolet Volt | Chevrolet Volt | Tesla Model S |
| Japan Total | 30.000 | 23.000 | 38.000 |
| Japan #1 | Nissan Leaf | Mit. Outlander PHEV | Mit. Outlander PHEV |
| Europe Total | 250.000 | 280.000 | 280.000 |
| Europe #1 | Mit. Outlander PHEV | Mit. Outlander PHEV | Mit. Outlander PHEV |
| Netherlands T. | 27.500 | 35.000 | 35.000 |
| Netherlands #1 | Mit. Outlander PHEV | Mit. Outlander PHEV | Mit. Outlander PHEV |
| Norway Total | 45.000 | 50.000 | 50.000 |
| Norway #1 | Volkswagen e-Golf | Volkswagen e-Golf | Volkswagen e-Golf |
| UK Total | 40.000 | 40.000 | 45.000 |
| UK #1 | Mit. Outlander PHEV | Mit. Outlander PHEV | Mit. Outlander PHEV |
| France Total | 37.500 | 42.000 | 40.000 |
| France #1 | Renault Zoe | Renault Zoe | Renault Zoe |
| Germany Total | 37.500 | 44.000 | 35.000 |
| Germany #1 | VW Passat GTE | Kia Soul EV | Kia Soul EV |
A few comments, on these numbers, Roland thinks the Outlander PHEV will be the new Global #1, but only if they get the MY17 US launch right. Otherwise he thinks that it's Model S again.
The same goes in the USA, Roland believes that the Volt will be able to beat the Model S, but isn't 100% sure on that, as a side note, Viktor is optimistic on the Chevy Bolt as he think that it will create an instant impact on the market once it lands later in the year.
Unlike my partners, i think the Nissan Leaf will have a good year in Japan, while Roland is pessimistic on the performance of the Japanese EV market.
Gathering consensus is the fact that The Netherlands will assist a sales slowdown regarding last year, unlike the other large EV markets in Europe.
China: 800,000-1,000,000 passenger +
ReplyDelete800,000-1,000,000 commercial
Hope to be proven wrong because of beeing too low ! :-)
Seriously.
160,000 New Energy Vehicles (passenger & commercial) in November + December 2015.
Probably about half of them are passenger cars: 80,000.
Probably about 35,000 in November and 45,000 in December.
Without any growth December x 12 would be about 540,000.
So 800,000-1,000,000 seems quite reasonable to me.
We'll see... :-)
Ciao
Alok
Last quarter results are always the best, I am not sure if you can take them as an average over the next year and still assuming this displays no growth. Maybe it would be average with growth already inside. But I would be more than pleased if we would reach these numbers you stated!
ReplyDeleteHi Badem.
DeleteYes, it could be as you said.
My understanding is that plug-in sales in China are heavily production limited, and therefor they basically sell all they have been able to produce.
And at least a few automakers are busy increasing production as fast as they can.
Therefor my hope is that the last quarter "distortion" factor doesn't apply to plug-ins there.
We'll see...
January figures should give us a clue.
Let's hope for the better!
Ciao
Alok
I bet on Renault ZOE for Europe. Currently they set huge incentives for most European markets (~10% in UK, Norway 15-25% in Germany, France, Portugal, Italy). Obviously they want to sell more.
ReplyDeleteI think you are all very wrong for the Netherlands. The Mit. Outlander PHEV was only popular for tax reasons. In 2016 the tax for plug in hybrids will be much higher. Only BEVs with a price under € 50.000 will keep the low tax. So Tesla probably won't be very popular as well. My best bet is the Nissan Leaf 30kWh, as this is currently the longest range BEV under € 50.000.
ReplyDeleteMark