World Top 10 November 2016

Zotye Cloud EV - Best Seller in November

Models - Chinese Take Over, Chapter Two

The global EV market had its second best month ever in November, with some 79.000 units delivered, representing a 39% growth YoY, if the same growth rate happens in December,  a month from now we should be celebrating a 120.000 units record month, placing the 2016 final tally at some 780.000 units, 40% above 2015.

In the models ranking, the big news were once again the Chinese models grabbing the November Top Spots, starting with the Zotye Cloud EV, Best Seller in November with 5.024 units, with the Silver Medal going to the Geely Emgrand EV, with 3.799 units, while the remaining podium seat going also to another Chinese model, the BAIC EU260, with 3.769 units, thus making a 100% Chinese Podium, the first time this happens, but i believe it won't be the last.

But the take over didn't end there, there were three additional Chinese models (#5 Zotye E200, with 3.500 units, #7 Chery eQ, 3.233 units and #10 BYD e5, 2.113), in the November Top 10, making six(!) models from that country in the monthly Top 10. And BYD only contributed with one model...

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Tesla Model S has the Nissan Leaf within shooting range, so the last-month-of-the-quarter-peak should pull it to another Models title, like it did last year.

The recent poor performances of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV has allowed the Chevrolet Volt to close in and with the help of the expected December peak in the US market, the GM model should end the year in the Fourth Spot. 

The BMW i3 33-kWh-kick continues to be felt, with the German Hot Hatch delivering a record 2.875 units, securing its Sixth Place, while the BAIC E-Series EV suffered from production constraints (The EU260 has priority over it #LargerProfits) and delivered only 735 units, its worst result in almost two years, dropping one position to #9, to the benefit of the Renault Zoe, which recovered its Eighth Position.

In #10 we have a fresh face, with the BAIC EU260 replacing the Tesla Model X, but with the American Sports-Minivan-Crossover-Thing only 185 units away and the #12 BYD e6 some 400 units behind, a lot can still happen in December between the #8 to the #12 spots.

The rise of the Chinese manufacturers has significantly changed the BEV/PHEV breakdown, at this moment BEV's have a 63% take rate, well above the 37% of PHEV's, we have to go back five years to see such a big difference, so China's Wild Card into EV's is not only increasing the number of plug-ins on the road but also helping BEV's to overcome the PHEV technology.

Pl	WORLD	Nov.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	3.529	46.805	7	2
2	Tesla Model S	3.375	43.347	7	1
3	BYD Tang	1.578	29.895	5	8
4 5 6	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Chevrolet Volt BMW i3	1.873 2.862 2.875	24.500 24.334 22.828	4 4 3	3 9 5
7	BYD Qin	1.118	21.047	3	4
8	Renault Zoe	1.488	18.970	3	7
9	BAIC E-Series EV	735	18.587	3	11
10	BAIC EU260	3.769	18.496	3	64
	TOTAL	79.257	660.140

Manufacturers -  Zotye Surges 

Looking at November Best Selling manufacturers, three of the Top Four brands came from China (#1 Zotye, #2 BYD, #4 BAIC), with BMW being the only foreigner, in Third.

Zotye had a Tesla-like surge last month, registering 12.318 units, the second best result ever (Only Tesla did better, last September, with over 13k units) by any brand, possibly probably due to dealership registrations, anticipating the upcoming incentive changes in China, allowing it to jump to the Sixth Place in the YTD ranking.

As for BYD, with only 8.315 units, it had its worst result in seven months, which raises the question: Is this due to production constraints or are the new arrivals making a dent into the once all-mighty BYD?

As for the Bavarian automaker, the benefits from a strong (And extensive) lineup allowed it to reach a new all-time high, with 7.571 units, distancing itself from Nissan and securing the Third Spot for 2016. With ambitious goals for 2017 (100k sales), expect the German carmaker to continue being one of the leading OEMs next year. 

With Chevrolet selling at decent levels and its newest baby, the Bolt, arriving in December, expect the American brand to have a deliveries peak next month (Do i hear 4.000 units?), which should be enough to overcome Mitsubishi and reach #8.

As for Mitsubishi, whether its #8 or #9, 2016 will be remembered as its lowest place in the ranking, a sad place to be for a carmaker that has been pushing for EV's since 2009. That's what you get when you don't improve your lineup...  

With Zotye jumping to #6, someone had to leave the Top 10, and that one was Ford, now #11, some 3.000 units behind Renault, so unless Ford Goes Tesla in December and surprises us all (Highly unlikely), the French brand has the #10 secured in 2016.

To have a better idea of how fast Chinese brands are growing in the EV industry, in 2013 they had delivered some 12.000 units, which made them have 6% of the total EV market.

In 2014, their numbers grew to 53.000 units and 17% of all plug-ins sold that year, a year after they had 180.000 units and 31% of the EV market, and now, November 2016, they have 286.000 units sold this year and 43% of all EV's registered in 2016.

So, 6% to 43% share in less than three years. Not bad... 

Pl	WORLD	Nov.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	BYD	8.315	92.385	14	1
2	Tesla	4.769	61.685	9	2
3	BMW	7.571	54.063	8	6
4	Nissan	3.930	50.625	8	4
5 6 7	BAIC Zotye Volkswagen	4.788 12.318 3.019	41.711 32.155 31.875	6 5 5	12 9 5
8	Mitsubishi	2.453	28.904	4	3
9	Chevrolet	2.901	27.500	4	11
10	Renault	2.094	25.874	4	8