Europe November 2017

BMW i3 Wins November

The European passenger plug-in market had its best not-last-month-of-quarter record, with over 29,000 units. This is the sixth seventh time in the last seven eight months where we see 50%-plus growth rates.

Looking at the broader picture of the Automotive market in Europe, sales were up 5.9% in November, with SUVs growing the fastest, at +32%, which highlights the need for more plug-in SUVs, as that’s what the market currently wants.

If we look only at PEV share, November hit 2.4% share, keeping the year-to-date share at a record 1.9%.

As in the previous month, November saw a close race between the Renault Zoe, BMW i3 and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, decided in the last minute by photo-finish, this time with the BMW i3 winning by just 45 units.

Interestingly, the two Best Selling ICE models in Europe (VW Golf and Renault Clio) have their plug-in counterparts (e-Golf and Zoe) reaching the Top 5. Expect this to become a trend, once more and more mainstream buyers, more risk-averse, join the PEV market.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch was down 8% in November, to 1,932 units, a drop explained by the exceptional month of November ’16, when the deliveries of the 33 kWh version were in full swing, and the recent deliveries hiccup, derived from the facelift change of the hot hatch. Still it was enough to be November Best Seller, and expect deliveries in December to resume the growth path. Looking at individual countries, apart from Switzerland (340 units, new record), there were no big surprises, with Norway registering 358 units (All BEV), and Germany scoring 438 registrations, 276 of them being of the BEV variety. Looking into 2018, expect deliveries to pick up in the coming months, as BMW returns to full production in its Leipzig plant and delivers as much i3 and i8 as the factory can deliver.

#2 Renault Zoe – Despite growing 31% YoY, the November performance of the French hatchback confirmed that it has lost the unbeatable status, scoring 1,887 units and losing the November Top Spot to its BMW i3 rival, while the Third Placed Outlander PHEV ended only 52 units behind. Is Renault not willing to increase production, or is demand waning? Maybe the upcoming Leaf II is making a dent on its French cousin performance…Or maybe not. For market individual performances, good news from its home market (776 units, up 48%), collecting also three-digit performances in Germany (235 units), Norway (213) and Spain (127).   

#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – A sure value, the Japanese SUV has seen its sales go up 12% YoY, to 1,835 registrations, racing once again for the Best Seller status last month. Mitsubishi is of the few Top OEMs to have its sales limited by demand and not production. As such, Mitsubishi is actively promoting its plug-in model, highlighting its unique mix of space, AWD and electric range (50 kms NEDC), with competitive prices (Read “deep discounts”) as the icing on the cake. This makes him popular in markets like in the UK, Norway, Sweden or Germany, and a sales phenomenon in Iceland, having inclusively beaten its sales record last month, by registering 154 units(!), and making it the Bestselling passenger car in November (!!!). In the long run, it is not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers.

#4 Volkswagen e-Golf – The range increase of the German hatchback coincided with a big spike in demand, with record breaking performances almost every month. In November, the German hatchback took some time to breathe, delivering only 1,593 units last month. Still with a waiting list, Volkswagen has enough room to continue improving results, and we might even see it win the Best Seller trophy next year. Looking at its largest markets, Germany was for the first time the best-selling market, with a record 601 units, followed by Norway (359), Netherlands (324 units, new best) and Austria (71 registrations). With other markets helping along, the e-Golf is a more spread out vehicle now and not just a “Norway thing”. With Volkswagen announcing production increases to meet demand, expect 2018 to build on this year success. Oh, the wonders of increased range…

#5 Tesla Model S – The poster child for electric cars collected another Top 5 presence, recording 1,531 units last month, its best off-peak performance in Europe, since it landed in 2013. It seems many buyers got tired of waiting for the Model 3 and just went ahead for the larger (and pricier) Model S. The largest markets for the Californian Sport Sedan were Norway (501 units), Netherlands (235) and Germany (205). With the Model 3 still several months away from crossing the Atlantic and without direct competition in the foreseeable future, expect this model to continue to be a regular here.

Niro PHEV: A rising star

YTD Ranking – Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV reaches the Podium

November didn’t bring many changes to the 2017 ranking, with the most important being the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV displacing the sunset-mode Nissan Leaf from the Third Spot.

In a strong sales month, some models hit record performances, with the trendy Mercedes GLC350e hitting 1,482 units, a good sign for the future EQ all-electric SUV, the Tesla Model X had its first four-digit result (1,100 deliveries) in an off-peak month, while the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, hit a record 792 deliveries, with the local brand importers profiting from the increased production on the BEV version.

Outside the Top 20, there are some rising stars that should make themselves noticed in 2018, like the Kia Niro PHEV, which registered 553 units last month, or the Mini Countryman PHEV, that with 733 units in November, had another record month.

Coincidentally, both are compact Crossovers, which says a lot about what body styles people currently prefer.

Finally, a reference to the Opel Ampera-e (Euro Chevrolet Bolt). November was the second month in a row of increased deliveries (328 deliveries last month), which could mean that GM and PSA are finally willing to deliver it in decent volumes. Will we see it reach 500 units/month in the beginning of the year? I sincerely hope so, the little EV deserves to be successful, and it’s not its fault that GM and PSA managements are…Well, you know, it rhymes with holes.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW (19, down 1%) is comfortably seated at the Top Spot, now being followed by Volkswagen (12%, down 1%) in Second Place, having surpassed Renault (12%, down 1%), but with only 800 units separating them, everything can still happen in December.

Outside the podium, Tesla (9%) is running ahead of Mercedes, with 8% share, but with the December last-quarter-of-the-month Tesla peak expected to be a record-breaker, do not expect Mercedes to pose any problems to the Palo Alto automaker.

Pl	Europe	November	YTD	%
1	Renault Zoe	1887	28030	10
2	BMW i3	1932	18490	7
3	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1835	17556	6
4	Nissan Leaf	715	16650	6
5	Tesla Model S	1531	12916	5
6	VW Passat GTE	1268	12032	4
7	Mercedes GLC350e	1482	11823	4
8	VW e-Golf	1593	11737	4
9	Tesla Model X	1100	10517	4
10	BMW 225xe Act. Tourer	1072	9839	4
11	BMW 330e	913	9496	3
12	Audi A3 e-Tron	577	7679	3
13	VW Golf GTE	948	7558	3
14	Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV	752	7304	3
15	Mercedes C350e	437	6117	2
16	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	792	5727	2
17	BMW X5 40e	524	5445	2
18	Kia Soul EV	525	4959	2
19	BMW 530e	586	4739	2
20	StreetScooter Work	369	4002	1
	Others	8651	59654	23
	TOTAL	29489	272270	100