Norway January 2018 (Updated)

BEVs to Power

After Sweden, we cross to the neighboring Norway, the template for EV adoption, where something unusual has happened this January, with the Norwegian mainstream market dropping 30%, despite no apparent economic disruption.

To understand this number, we have to look at the overall fuels share, in January, despite dropping 7% YoY, BEVs registered a record 23% share, staying only behind regular gas cars (26% share) as the best selling fuel source, but PHEVs stumbled 40% in sales, to just 17% share, with the announced demise of diesel-powered cars continuing, scoring only 20% share (Down from 24%, a year ago), placing diesel behind BEVs, with the remainder (14%) going to regular HEVs, which have fell in line with the market.

Also interesting to notice, is that a sizeable 890 second hand EVs were imported last month, a 80% jump YoY, with hundreds of Nissan Leaf and Kia Soul EV, among others, being imported from abroad, which could help explaining the current registration slowdown. 

What does this all mean? Basically, people are either waiting for new BEVs to arrive (Leaf II, Model 3, Kona BEV, etc) or in line to get a BEV from the current best-sellers (i3, e-Golf, Zoe), with the remaining models, including PHEVs, suffering with the current seismic changes. Do not be surprised if in a few months BEVs become the best selling fuel source...

Looking at the current crop of Best Sellers, there is a significant difference between the podium bearers and the Fourth Placed Hyundai Ioniq Electric, which probably has more to do with the chronic production constraints of the Korean model, than lack of demand.

In the remaining 16 positions, we see a tide of PHEVs, with only the quirky #9 Kia Soul EV and both Teslas belonging to the BEV team, making it only seven BEVs in the Top 20, when this technology outsold PHEVs by 3 to 2. The reason for this paradox? BEV sales are more concentrated, as there are less models to choose and even less if we restrict the choice to appealing nameplates, reading from this Top 20, they are just 4 models (The Top 4), with the Kia Soul EV satisfying a specific customer niche (City drivers with utility high on their priority list) and the Teslas going after wealthier wallets.

Looking elsewhere, January is usually a slow selling month, but nevertheless the Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins scored 145 units, allowing it a Sixth Place, allowing it even to outsell the current Volvo shining star, the XC60 PHEV (135 units).

In the manufacturers ranking, last year winner Volkswagen (22%) is in Second Place, surpassed by BMW (24%), with the Third Spot going to Volvo, with 12%.

Pl	Norway	January	YTD	%
1	BMW i3	614	614	17
2	VW e-Golf	514	514	14
3	Renault Zoe	334	334	9
4	Hyundai Ioniq BEV	170	170	5
5	BMW 225xe Active Tourer	154	154	4
6	Volvo S/V90 PHEV	145	145	4
7	VW Passat GTE	141	141	4
8	Volvo XC60 PHEV	135	135	4
9	Kia Soul EV	119	119	3
10	VW Golf GTE	115	115	3
11	Tesla Model S	110	110	3
12	Tesla Model X	105	105	3
12	Mitsu. Outlander PHEV	105	105	3
14	Kia Niro PHEV	103	103	3
15	Kia Optima PHEV	63	63	2
16	Audi A3 e-Tron	62	62	2
16	Mercedes GLC350e	62	62	2
18	Mini Countryman PHEV	61	61	2
19	Volvo V60 PHEV	58	58	2
20	Volvo XC90 PHEV	57	57	2
	TOTAL	3691	3691	100

Sources: Ofvas and Elbil

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

Pl	Model	Sales
1	BMW i3	614
2	VW e-Golf	514
3	Renault Zoe	334
4	Toyota Yaris	319
5 6 7 8 9 10 10	Toyota Auris Toyota RAV4 Toyota C-HR Hyundai Ioniq BEV Peugeot 3008 Peugeot 5008 Ford Fiesta	253 213 202 170 168 164 164

With 40% PEV share, the general market is showing the electric road in unstoppable, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have four HEVs, four BEVs, with no PHEVs in sight.

It seems plug-in hybrids are suffering more than expected from the current BEV-fever, which might prove that their role as stop-gap technology into full EV is being proven.

This month the Toyota hybrids had a major comeback, with all four of them joining the Top 10, while at the bottom we see fresh faces, with the Ford Fiesta(?!?), and the Peugeot Crossovers climbing in the Best Sellers train.

After September having been the first "NO ICE" Top 10 month ever, will we see the same happening in March? I wouldn't bet against it.