Here are the 2018 PEV deliveries by Automotive Groups, from January until September:
Regarding the previous post, two months ago, the big change happened at the top, with both Tesla (12%, +2% share) and BYD (11%, +1%) profiting from their recent record performances to surpass the Renault-Nissan Alliance (10%, -1%), that is now down to Third Place.
Regarding the remaining OEMs, there aren't significant changes, the only major difference is Geely Group, that is getting closer to the #6 SAIC,
Interestingly, half of the Top 10 belongs to Chinese OEMs, and if we add Tesla to the Disruptors team, Legacy OEMs are a minority in the Top 10. Talk about disruptive times…
Grouping sales by origin of brand, China has increased its leadership, to 47% share (+1%), a new record, with the USA (16%, +1% share) recovering the Second Place from Germany (16%, -2%), while the Fourth Placed Japan lost share (10%, -1%), and Korea (4%) remained stable in #5.
Excluding PHEVs from the equation, the disruption becomes even more evident: Tesla (18%) is #1, Renault-Nissan (12%) is Second, BAIC is Third (11%), followed by BYD (#4), Chery (#5), and three other Chinese OEMs (JAC, Geely Group and JMC), with the Best Selling Legacy OEM being BMW (3% share) showing up only in #9(!).
If this trend continues, by the time the ICE market crashes, say in 2022, few Legacy OEMs will remain…
Regarding your last paragraph: isn't Renault-Nissan still a legacy OEM?
ReplyDeleteIt's the best among them in terms of EV attitude - wish all were doing as much as R-N-(+M) - but still.
Now, looking back at the text, i see what you mean, but it wasn't my intention to exclude Renault-Nissan from the Legacy OEM field.
DeleteJust to make it clear:
- The Renault Nissan Alliance is a Legacy OEM;
- It is also one of the few to be ready for the EV disruption;
- From the Legacy OEMs, it is the only one that earns Money with EVs, due to the scale and investment already made.
I for once really prefer to read all these facts under the real context in which they happen. EV adoption is always great, but the fact that many follow it just to be able to: (I) take use of grants/allowances (II) take use of tax brakes (III) jump in the latest lease on the newest model on sale + many others alike, defeats the beauty of the choice.
ReplyDeleteI can remember a few locations where this happens: Netherlands, Norway, US, China, (...).
In 2030 the ICE market will still be running strong, at that time, I hope I will have the chance to be running my petrol cars with syntetic petrol (no carbon based) along the vintage EV I am running now.
Beautiful or not; politics works. We want it to happen, so we make it happen.
DeleteThe China JVentures are coming on soon. SAİC - VW , FAW - VW etc. How are you going to count them? Half half?
ReplyDeleteIt depends on who is the "parent" of the car, meaning, who developed the car, which technology/platform it uses, etc.
DeleteThere are already a few cases where i had to make this, eg, Mitsubishi is selling a compact PHEV Crossover in China, that it is none other than a rebadged GAC, so those Mitsubishi numbers go to GAC.
A different case is the Baojun E100, both SAIC and GM had input on the car, but from the 3 options at hand (count as GM; count as SAIC; 50/50 split), i've chosen to count it as SAIC, as the car had more input from SAIC than GM, and the car is made only for China.
Have to agree with Assaf - isn't Renault-Nissan a legacy OEM? Nissan is 84 years old and Renault is 119 years old.
ReplyDeleteYou're right it is a Legacy OEM.
DeletePlease read my response to Assaf.
well, the German car makers haven't really started with EV production yet, when they start sales of new concepts e-cars, including in China, the figures would be quite different and more significant in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteTrue, but until then...This is what we have.
DeleteI have the following conclusions:
ReplyDelete(1) BYD, Geely, and SAIC have too many plugin hybrids in their lineup and need to prepare to go full electric faster. They're doing worse in the pure electric league tables than in the plugin tables -- and the market is shifting to pure electric.
(2) Chery continues to impress; they're known for small, short-range cars; can they break out of the short-range ghetto?
(3) BAIC (technically, BAIC BJEV, which is a partially-owned subsidiary which seems to be stock-market-listed) seems to be making a real play for the big time, and may well be second to Tesla in both charts next year, if their ramp continues. Do we have any statements from BAIC management about their plans? Anyone find anything in Chinese media? I can't find anything but I don't read Chinese...
(4) BAIC seems to be eating up CATL's battery supply.
1 - This is true, although Geely itself is strong on BEVs, Volvo's 100% PHEV lineup is a weak point for the Group a whole. They need to send out a BEV Volvo XC40 as soon as possible.
Delete2 - The Chery Tiggo 3xe Compact Crossover, selling now at over 1000 units/month, could just be what the doctor ordered for that;
3 - The only thing i know is that they had targeted 170.000 units this year. And with 91k so far, that target is still attainable, they just need to pump out the EC-Series at full speed;
4 - True, a 100% BEV range tends be a kWh-hungry thing. That's why BYD sells so much PHEVs, because they are still battery constrained, it's more profitable for them to make 2 Tang PHEVs than 1 Yuan BEV.
Jose,
ReplyDeleteThe Nissan Leaf actually still is the only EV model with a global cumulative total sales number that is higher than 350,000.
Have you got any information regarding to how the sales numbers of the Nissan Leaf were in Japan in October 2018?
Cheers
Not yet, i will probably only get it around the 15th.
DeleteWhen I point out to Tesla fans, that Tesla is 25% of world BEV sales, not more than 50%, as they claim, they argue that most other EVs are short range with small batteries, and if you would calculate BEV not in numbers, but in kWh, Tesla would have more than half. This seems like an argument. Is it hard to calculate an actual data, Jose? Could you make it sometime?
ReplyDeleteI do not follow brands by kWh, because i believe that metric doesn't make sense, as one BEV with 60 kWh doesn't drive twice as much as a 30 kWh BEV, for me the important thing is that both replace an ICE vehicle.
DeleteI guess it would be the same as comparing ICE car sales not by units, but by engine cc. It wouldn't make any sense, right?
This is just a Tesla fanboy thing, to make Tesla look even better.
But, although i do not follow kWh batteries by brand, i do follow by battery maker, and there are some interesting developments in that department, as the Chinese CATL is fast approaching Panasonic at the top of the battery makers:
https://www.electrive.com/2018/06/06/catl-byd-rise-in-rank-to-join-worlds-top-3-battery-makers/
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/14/chinese-battery-giant-catl-to-become-1-ev-battery-producer/
In fact, if it is an US Tesla fan boy, more probably he is reasoning as a "true" American for whom, for a lot of them at least, the world is limited at the USA...:) So, with this metric in mind, in fact, this Tesla fan boy is even wrong as for the pure US EV market, Tesla is at some 75%...
DeleteIt always difficult for fan boys to be unbiased, by definition, but I think with all the flacks Tesla had endured since its birth, and consequently all their supporter, I think it is fair to excuse their "enthusiasm" :).
More seriously, thanks to Chinese EV car makers, Tesla is not any-more alone (and thanks to Carlos Ghosn too) against the alliance between incumbents car makers and oil industry to, dismiss the possibilities of the electric evolution/revolution at first, and then to trying to slowing it down as more as possible.
Interesting time to be alive for sure...and a lot of popcorn will be need to see the next episodes...:)
Yep, now things are getting interesting!
DeleteWhere is Hawtai on the OEM list?
ReplyDeleteGlobal Top 20 is 33 217 sales.
It's in #13, behind #11 GM and #12 Toyota
DeleteJose,
ReplyDeleteThe Netherlands (October 2018):
257 - Tesla Model S
91 - Tesla Model X
360 - Nissan Leaf
175 - BMW i3
127 - Renault Zoe
209 - Jaguar I-Pace
176 - Hyundai Ionic (total of Hybrid, PHEV, and Electric)
204 - Hyundai Kona (total of Hybrid, PHEV, and Electric)
22 - Opel Ampera-e
Cheers
After the October numbers come in it would be fun to have a list of models having cumulative sales of more than 100,000. This would include the Leaf, Renault Zoe, the Volt, Mitsubushi Outlander, all three Tesla models, BMW i3 - but what about Chinese models?
ReplyDeleteYes, this is why I was counting all-time models. I wanted to make a list of all models over 100K at the moment when Tesla Model 3 reaches this point.
DeleteIs this a possibility that you will make this list? I don`t have the full data :(
Yes, there is, i will try to remember that by the end of this month, once the TM3 hits 100k.
DeleteChinese models above 100k:
ReplyDeleteBAIC EC-Series - 130k;
BYD Qin - 170k;
Chery eQ - 100k.
It would be great to see the EV mix for each OEM. Some automakers have a higher mix of EV sales than the industry, and they are likely the ones who are most committed to an EV future and will likely gain market share in the total auto market as EVs advance. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteI think it can be done. Remind me of it later in the month!
DeleteGasgoo has BYD October at 27600 (26000 cars rest bus and truck) and 10 month total 170k
ReplyDeletehttp://autonews.gasgoo.com/70015345.html
I expect Tesla at 20-25k for October bringing total to 175-180k.
Hot race for last 2 months.
thanks!
DeleteTo end this year countability up to September and doing the definitive maths for Tesla with each quarter earnings, we had 21.815 Model S and X delivered in Q1, 22.319 in Q2 and 27.710 in Q3. So, 71.844 up to September. Then, there were 8.182 TM3 delivered in Q1, 18.449 in Q2 and 56.065 in Q3. So, 82.696 up to September, for a grand total of 154.450, precisely, cars delivered by Tesla up to September. Will they be able to attain the 250.000 mark this year? Would be a great bet to make! So, 95.650 cars delivered by Tesla in Q4? Want to be optimistic and believe this is possible...and join some fan boys in their joy for the all benefit of every person in this planet and the planet itself.
DeleteI don't know if they can get there, but what i can guess already is that Tesla in December will have a record number, with the Model 3 possibly beating the Toyota Camry in the US.
Delete