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Boatloads of i-Pace are being delivered here
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Jaguar i-Pace steps up the pace
November had 3,499 plugin registrations, up 221% YoY and the market best month since December '16, which translates in a PEV Share of 10%, and pulls the year to date count to 20,516 units (+153%), with the 2018 PEV share now growing to 4.8%, with BEVs representing 87% of registrations.
This good market performance was the result of several good individual results, starting with the Best Seller of the Month, the Nissan Leaf, that registered 657 units, its second consecutive record month. Interestingly, the Nissan Evalia EV (38 units) also had its best result in 4 years, which means both of Nissan EVs are expanding sales.
The Jaguar i-Pace reached the Second Spot, with 607 units, antecipating an historic December, where deliveries should cross well into the thousands…Jaguar dealerships will probably have to work on overtime during December, in order to avoid a delivery-hell.
This time the Tesla Model S won the Bronze medal, thanks to 428 deliveries, its best off-peak result ever, so we can expect another 1,000-plus performance in December.
Interestingly, the 308 Tesla Model X deliveries also represented that nameplate best off-peak performance here, so we can expect at least some 800-1,000 deliveries in December for the Sports-Minivan-SUV, which would make Tesla cross the 2,000 deliveries in one month. Well, it should also be a nice rehearsal for the upcoming Model 3 delivery tsunami...
Of course, the higher taxation of expensive BEVs next year might have something to do with this sales surge, but something tells me (ahem, Tesla Model 3...) this explosive growth is set to continue through 2019.
Pl
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Model
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Sales
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1
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Nissan Leaf
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657
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2
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Jaguar i-Pace
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607
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3
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Tesla Model S
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428
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4
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VW e-Golf
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359
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5
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Tesla Model X
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308
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Looking at the 2018 ranking, while the Top 8 positions remained the same, the Jaguar i-Pace keeps jumping positions, with the British SUV reaching #8 in November, as it tries to end the 2018 ranking in the podium.
Just outside the Top 10, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV rose two positions to #11, thanks to 209 registrations, the nameplate best result in 23 months. With the Japanese SUV only 52 units behind the current Best Selling PHEV, the #10 Volvo XC60 PHEV, with 455 units, it seems the Mitsubishi model will recover the trophy it has won for the last time in 2015.
The Hyundai Kona EV had 167 deliveries, its best performance so far, as it tries to join the Top 10 and make a 100% BEV Top 10.
Outside the Top 20, a mention to the Land Rover PHEVs, with the brand delivering 69 plugin hybrid Range Rovers, a new record for the maker.
In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (31%, down 2%) is the undisputed leader, with Nissan (15%, up 1%) in Second Place, while the race for the Third Spot is hot, with #3 Volkswagen (11%, up 1%) on the podium, but with BMW and Hyundai dangerously close, both with 10%.
The EU made up almost 28% of Tesla deliveries in 2017. Let's say 30% for easier math. If there were 420,000 Model 3 reservations left at the end of 2nd quarter, that would mean 126,000 of those are for the EU. Now how many of those people are looking to buy the $35K Model 3? 50%, 60%? Lets say 50%, this means at most 58,000 people are looking to buy the current Model 3 trims. Now with the troubles we are hearing about the Model 3, the long wait times at service centers, other EVs that have come out since 2nd Quarter or will be out soon, how many of those people will convert and config a Model 3? My guess is around 30k at most. That could be filled in two quarters with about 15k units being delivered each quarter.
ReplyDeleteWhile I can be wrong and the Model 3 can do as well in the EU as it has in the US, I do not think it will. We can look at the EVs that are sold in the EU and the top EV is the Leaf, followed by the Zoe, followed by the i3. The Leaf can be bought for as low as €30K, the Zoe can be bought for as low as €20K and the i3 for about €34k. While I expect to see a lot of Model 3s be shipped to the EU in the beginning I do not expect Tesla to sell a lot there until the can make the $35K model which might not be for another year in the EU.
I haven't posted a forecast for the Model 3 in Europe, because i am not certain of the demand after the reservations wave.
DeleteNevertheless, i agree with most of your forecasts, for sure numbers won't be as high as many say, i have been hearing 300k TM3 in Europe, which is almost impossible in 2019, and unlikely in 2020.
Also, i think 2020 will be a peak year for the Model 3 in Europe:
First, by 2021 most Tesla fans will have their eyes and wallets on the Model Y, making the Model 3 "old news";
Second, in 2021, there will be several competitive compact BEVs (ID Neo, etc) that will be available in volume and more suited to Euro tastes, so many people won't find the need to upsize their mobility needs for the more expensive Model 3.
More important that 15% of the S/X sales are from tiny markets like norway, netherlands , switzerland they are to small to get the same 15% from much larger volume.
DeleteGermany is a wildcard with higher subsidies in 2019 but expect PHEVs dominate.
And dont forget a model S long range is 57K EUR here and on a german autobahn empty any hour.
Believe me. In the Netherlands the Model 3 can easily tripple the sales numbers of the Model S! I expect at least 10-15k deleveries in NL of the Model 3 next year
DeleteHey Jose, 300k Model 3s in Europe? I am surprised that Tesla was able to sell more than 100k in the US and that is its biggest market. There is no way you will see that many Model 3s sold in any one market in a year. I would be surprised if Tesla could sell that many globally in a year at its peak. I will agree with you that 2020 will most likely be peak for the Model 3 in Europe if the $35K trim is introduced but I do not expect much more than what they do in 2019. 10-15K more so between 30k-45K?
DeleteI really think Tesla is going to be facing a wall of competition starting in 2019. You have at least 6 cars I know of that are entering the Europe market and US market and you have new cars being introduced in China every other month. I do not know how Tesla will sell many Model Ys unless they can sell them for sub $30,000 off the bat because there will be so many good models coming out in 2019 that it would make no sense for people to wait 2+ years for the Model Y when they can get a EV SUV/Crossover much sooner.
Solucky,
DeleteThe biggest markets for Tesla are currently Norway, The Netherlands, and the UK. Those will the bulk of the Models 3 will be sold in EU.
reijer kok,
DeleteI would be surprised if Tesla could sell more than 10K model 3s in the Netherlands next year. The only reason why the Model S and X are doing sell well there right now is because people are trying to beat the tax increase that will be coming in Q1 2019. This will cause cars that cost 50,000 € or more to see a huge drop in registrations thus I expect to see only a few thousand Model 3s to be sold at the current price. Once the $35,000 model comes out I can see between 10-15K units to be sold in the Netherlands in that year.
@ Matt B.
Delete10,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries in The Netherlands is a very highly likely possibility in 2019.
Cheers
The USA market is predominantly California plus some west coast states. The European EV market is far larger than the USA market. Even when the Model 3 is relatively less popular, it could still sell more units than in the USA.
ReplyDeleteThe new competition will increase the market visibility of EVs. But when potential buyers start comparing offerings, prices, wait times, many will choose the Model 3 with the bets value proposition and the shortes wait times.
Top 10 BEV next month, would that be a first for any market?
ReplyDeleteI think it would be, yes.
DeleteHigh-trim Model 3s outsold Nissan Leaf both in USA and Canada.
ReplyDeleteSo, it will probably outsold Nissan Leaf in Europe as well. I think, we should expect more then 60 000 Model 3 in Europe in 2019.
But I am not so sure about 100K. It depends on the availability of 35K version.
Jose,
ReplyDeleteMore than 100,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries in Europe in 2019 is a very realistic outcome.
Cheers
I am still hesitant in saying a number for the Model 3 in Europe, but i will say this:
ReplyDeleteThe real game changer, the $35k version, is only set to land in Europe in Q4, so right now, 100k units seems unlikely.
However, if the SR version lands in Q3, 100k becomes possible.
The key is the SR availability, and because even Tesla doesn't know how that will play, as it depends not only on production rates, but also demand in North America, i am wary of a Euro-spec TM3 forecast.
Jose,
DeleteThe demand (orders) for the Long Range Dual Motor Tesla Model 3 in Europe in 2019 will be more than 60,000 units.
Cheers
Over 20% BEV in December until now. It's going to be amazing.
ReplyDeleteThere is a nice race going on between Jaguar and Tesla for most deliveries this month.
Up until 12-12-2018:
Jaguar is at 450
Tesla is at 456 (S:301 / X: 152 / 3:3)
Thanks! Keep us posted!
DeleteStill going strong. BEV share in December 24% and rising every day. Seems inevitable that I Pace and Model S will be the best selling cars (of all fuels) in December!
DeleteI-Pace already beat last month's delivery numbers.
We could even see 5% BEV share for the whole year at this rate.
24% share. Wow.
DeleteA little pre Christmas December update from the Netherlands:
ReplyDeleteUp to 22th of December number of BEV sold: 3303 which means a 26,5% market share in December and 4,8% YTD.
Tesla is starting to take a lead the December manufacturer race with 1346 deliveries until now (S: 906 // X: 436 // 3: 4).
Jaguar is still ahead in the models race with 1197 I-Pace delivered. On the 21st of December Jaguar delivered a record 181 I-Pace in one day!
Merry Christmas.
181 i-Paces in one day, at that pace, Jag dealerships will end the year working until midnight! :-)
DeleteWell.. on the 28th of December they delivered/registered an insane amount of 712 I-Pace! December up until 29th now stands at 2547 I-Pace, even beating total Tesla December number of 2181. Just 2 days until the final registration numbers are in!
ReplyDeleteMarket share for BEV in December above 30%, YTD above 5%.
Crazy numbers thanks to WLTP changes, changing EV incentives and great new offerings.
Speaking about new offerings: Also 162 Audi E-tron were registered!