Audi e-Tron wins in slow month
Last month, BEVs registrations were shockingly down (-17% YoY), while PHEVs had their first positive month this year, growing 20% YoY, with all-electrics losing share regarding the same month last year (36% now vs 39% then), but with the last minute help from PHEVs (23% share in October), last month plugin share was 59%, keeping the 2019 PEV share at 56%.
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Regarding the October Top Sellers, this time the Audi e-Tron was the winner, with a record 873 deliveries, its first trophy so far, followed by its VW Group realative, the e-Golf, that scored another 740 registrations, seemingly immmune to the shadow of the ID.3.
The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was 3rd, with its best result since March, while the Nissan Leaf is profiting from the 62 kWh version to stay among the best.
Finally, the Hyundai Ioniq Electric scored its best result ever, with 413 registrations, earning it a rare Top 5 presence.
Looking at the 2019 ranking, the main news was the Audi e-Tron climbing to 4th, with the remaining changes all happening in the second half of the table:
- The Volvo XC60 PHEV climbed to #11, thanks to a year best performance of 257 units;.
- In what can only be described as a positive month for Volvo, its S/V60 PHEV twins were also up, it this case to #13, scoring 355 registrations last month, a new record for the midzise car nameplate.
- Another plugin hybrid on the rise is the Mini Countryman PHEV, that was up one position, to #19..
Outside the Top 20, a mention to the plugin hybrid renaissance, with several models starting a new life, like the revised VW Passat GTE, with 260 registrations, the new BMW 330e (107 units, new record for the nameplate), the new X5 PHEV (87 units), and even the Porsche Cayenne PHEV is surfing the wave, having scored 55 registrations, its best result since the start of the new WLTP rules, over a year ago.
Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is uncontested leader (26%, down 2%), being followed by Volkswagen (14%, up 1%), while BMW (10%), is in the last place of the podium. ahead of Hyundai and Nissan (both with 9%).
Models breakdown by Fuel Source
October saw the return of plugin hybrids, with three models in the Top 10, with only two unplugged models present, both coming from the Toyota hybrid stable, with the RAV 4 hybrid in #6 and the Yaris in #9.
The top 5 spots were 100% PEV, with all-electric models continuing to be the majority of models (5 out of 10).
The explanation is simple: limited availability of Model 3, due to Tesla accelerating deliveries to meet its Q3 target. I would expect this to be reversed in November and December.
ReplyDeleteIndeed. While the dominance isn't quite as striking as in the US, the effect is similar: when Tesla has a weak month, the entire market is down...
Delete(Though limited availability of Kona and model switchover of Zoe are also contributing a bit...)
I wonder whether the re-introduced PHEV models are taking away from BEV sales at all? I'd guess that they are mostly just substituting remaining combustion car sales...
Could be, what i am seeing across Europe is that PHEV sales are jumping through the roof, but BEVs continue growing more or less at the same pace as before.
DeleteWell, I wouldn't exactly say that PHEV sales are "jumping"... With a few exceptions, sales of most models seem to be more or less in line with the earlier part of this year; with total sales up a bit only from some newly (re-)introduced models.
DeleteIt just feels like a jump when looking at year-over-year numbers, because of last year's WLTP-related anomaly, where sales where artificially elevated in the first part of last year (so it looked like a major drop early this year), and artificially depressed in the latter part of last year (so it looks like a major increase now...)
What kinds of cars are car rental companies getting in Norway?
ReplyDeletewritten by Looney Tunes
Results are shockingly disappointing ( Tesla completely broke down, Model S just 18 sold). If you are in for a shock: China just released car sales today and BEV are down -45%!!! Electric vehicles are simply too expensive and unproductive. We nedd more innovation.
ReplyDeleteAmazing: you've been here for several years, and *still* can't figure out Tesla's delivery pattern...
DeleteIt's really simple to understand why both of those happened.
DeleteThe first month of every quarter is slow for Tesla in Europe, this is widely understood - and I know it's been explained to you before.
Chinese sales are down because incentives have been phased out/reduced, this was also entirely expected.
Results are expected. Almost all manufacturers are pushing all deliveries of EVs into 2020 for the EU regulations (yes, Norway's sales counts even though they are not in the EU).
DeleteRegistrations in the country is about deliveries, not sales. Tesla manufactures to Europé in the beginning of the quarter and deliver at the middle/end when the fully loaded boats arrive. First month of the quarter means that there are no Tesla cars to deliver because there are no boats here at the time.
It is quite simple. December will be great, because of Tesla. And january will be awesome because of all the other manufacturers pushing deliveries to next year.
I'm curious about what % of cars are now HEV, PHEV, & BEV in Norway, and whether the stock of ICE cars have been reduced, or if there are as many now as a decade or so ago but with fleet growth coming from xEVs? (I'd also love to see these stats for buses, LCVs, HCVs, etc)
ReplyDeleteThe numbers suggest that total sales (all power sources) are significantly down from previous year...
DeleteConsidering that combustion cars (including plug-less hybrids) are only ~40% of new sales now, I'm pretty sure the total stock is going down as well.
Surprisingly, the stock of ICEs is hardly reducing yet, because the population and car fleet of Norway are growing. The best figures I can find are that in Dec 2013 there were 2.52m ICE cars + 0.02m EVs, in Dec 2018 there were 2.57m ICEs + 0.20m EVs. My estimate for October 2019 is 2.54m ICEs + 0.26m EVs.
DeleteThere are 15,600 buses in Norway. At the start of this year hardly any were electric, but during the year one or two hundred have been ordered.
I presume Ioniq is already the new model? And e-tron probably includes the new lower-range variant?
ReplyDeleteConcerning the e-tron, no, you can order the new 50 version now but need to wait until 2020 to get it delivered.
Delete@Ioniq: It is the new model.
DeleteInteresting. I wonder what could have caused the jump in e-tron registrations, if it's not the new variant?
Delete(And whether it is sustainable, or a one-time spike?...)
I believe they finally finished the production ramp up, so this might be still some waiting list left overs.
DeleteIf not, then it is good news for the organic demand of the e-Tron, it means that is growing.
Well, capacity is supposedly 50,000 a year, i.e. more than 4,000 each month... September deliveries were something like 2,000 world wide I guess? So still quite a bit to go...
DeleteLooks like you aren't using very accurate sources for your numbers.
DeleteIn the EUR region alone, e-tron reached more than 1500 registrations, adding to that, just USA registrations, it almost reaches 2000 vehicles. Then, it is left all RoW market numbers, including the numbers for China. Vehicles sold are well above 3000 units.
It was a guess, based on European and US deliveries. Are they even selling them in China? Don't remember having heard anything regarding that -- but maybe that's because there are so many other EVs there that this one doesn't make much of an impact ;-)
DeleteDo you have a source for the "well above 3000", or is that also just a guess?...
Other than Europe, the e-tron is currently on sale, at least, in USA, Canada, Mexico, Israel, China, Japan and New Zealand. The production setup at Forest plant is set for 60.000 vehicles, both the e-tron and the e-tron sportback, for all their versions. Since first year production is set to 40.000 vehicles, and Audi supplys ex-works only pre-sold vehicles, it should be noted that I mention vehicle sales, not vehicle registrations. I happen to be holding numbers for some registrations, but information is business, and I do not disclose them costless.
DeleteJust like availibility of Tesla is limiting sales, it is also availability of others e-cars is doing the same.
ReplyDeleteWhat is striking especially in Europe, the e-tron is having geenrally more sales than Tesla X. Being more expensive and on paper less capable makes this even more interesting. Any thoughts on this?
Several possible reasons. First of all, the e-tron is actually quite a bit cheaper in Europe. (As it should be: considering that it not only comes with inferior specs, but is also smaller -- especially in terms of interior space...)
DeleteAnother factor is that in the Netherlands -- one of Tesla's strongest markets in Europe -- Model X sales were pulled forward before the end of 2018 because of fiscal changes.
There is also a certain novelty factor: newer car models almost always sell better than those that have been on the market for a while -- in part because they feel fresher, and in part because they attract buyers who didn't like models previously available...
Then there is brand loyalty: people who bought Audi before might consider an Audi EV but not other brands.
Another difference is that Audi does traditional advertisement, which Tesla refuses to do.
And last but not least, it appears that many European buyers generally trust an established European brand more than an American upstart -- even if it's objectively inferior in almost every regard...
Quite a book of excuses going on there, aren't we?
DeleteFrom any perspective, it is factual that the Model X is the most unsuccessful vehicle from Tesla, not only in Norway but in general. That model only came out barely 5 years ago. There has been the novelty factor of permanent OTA upgrade functionality and not least the Raven upgrade. If Tesla decides to forgo traditional advertisement, that is their decision, they can keep counting with the work of their army of fans and supporters.
If the e-tron is cheaper that is because few optional equipment was specified and Tesla decided to battle competition by dropping prices and curbing versions. It is a fact that European buyers trust better established carmakers with vast service networks and better customer communication.
Anyway, the product always strive by itself, just look how the Model 3 is faring worldwide, at least so far...
These are possible explanations (in reply to an explicit question) -- not excuses. There is no need for excuses.
DeleteWhen comparing March, July and October monthly sales of Tesla (peak months for each quarter) there is a clear trend going downwards. Any idea what could be the reason behind it?
ReplyDeleteThe peaks are March, *June, and *September, not July and October. And yes there's a clear downward trend, although this could be due to several factors so we don't yet know the true stable demand.
DeleteMarch was the first peak month with a lot of pent-up demand.
In June Tesla began shipping M3s to the UK.
In September Tesla focused heavily on Netherlands, and looks to continue doing this.
So it might be a while before we see genuine organic demand, it might stabilise, it might continue to trend downwards.
The easiest explanation is exhaustion of the initial backlog from pent-up demand for Model 3. (Historically, new Tesla models usually see a short-lived peak at the beginning, followed by a major depression as pent-up demand is exhausted, followed by a slower but more sustainable rise to an "organic demand" level.)
DeleteSome are also speculating that other European markets might be getting starved of deliveries as Tesla attempts to deliver as many cars as possible in the Netherlands, before the upcoming fiscal changes...