Europe June 2020

Record Month 

With the overall European market still recovering in June (-24% YoY), the European passenger plug-in market has returned to the fast track, having registered almost 93,000 registrations in June (+95%), a record performance, placing last month plugin share at 8.2% share (4.4% BEV), pulling the 2020 PEV share to 7.9% (4.3% for BEVs alone), more than doubling the 3.6% result of 2019 and getting mighty close to the disruptive 10% mark....

Will we see Europe's plugin market share end 2020 in two digits? Now THAT would be something to write about... 

With its production in full speed mode and orders pouring in like never before, the Renault Zoe was last month Best Seller, with its first 5-digit score, while also profiting from a limited Model 3 high tide, the Californian should only be able to go head to head with the Renault model in the Super-September month...Losing both to the flood of VW ID.3 that will happen then. But more on that later. 

Interestingly, we have two fresh faces in the Top 5, both PHEVs, that highlight the recent uptick of plugin hybrids, that shooted 226% last month, versus the more sedated 44% growth rate of BEVs, allowing PHEVs to now represent 45% of the total market.. 

Looking at June Top 5 Models:

#1 Renault Zoe – The record 10,342 deliveries in June are the result of the recent uptick in orders of the French hatchback, thanks to the recent incentive changes in a number of European markets, that added to the recent production ramp up at the Flins factory, allows the Renault EV to benefit from a perfect storm (> incentives; > orders; > production) and score consistent 5-digit performances in the coming months. Back to June, the main markets were France (record 6,012 units), Germany (record 1,448) and the UK (900, new record). For the coming months, expect the Zoe to win the next 2 Best Seller trophies until September, when a certain VW ID.3 lands... 

#2 Tesla Model 3 – Limited by the production shutdown in April, the high tide this time was limited to just 7,224 deliveries, the lowest end-of-quarter performance for the sports sedan in Europe. Expect the Californian to go back at 5-digit performances (15 to 18,000) in September. Back to June, the UK was once again the best market (by far) for the Tesla nameplate, with 2,517 deliveries, followed by The Netherlands (716 units), France (620) and Norway (527). 

#3 Ford Kuga PHEV - Before the Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape PHEV), Ford was something of a dead duck in Europe, with its plugin sales peak happening in 2015, with 1,308 units in the whole year, 1,230 of them being the Ford C-Max Energi, with the remaining years registering an average of 200 registrations...Not exactly stellar behavior, for what is still one of the major brands in Europe. But the Kuga has PHEV has changed all that, after scoring an impressive 1,629 units in May, June came and the compact crossover scored an amazing 3,684 registrations, earning its second consecutive Best Selling PHEV award and selling more in just one month, than Ford did in the previous 6 years (2013-'19)! The markets where the Dearborn plugin was in high rotation was Germany (807 units), Denmark (730 units!) and the UK (500). With the Kuga PHEV being heavily advertised and still in launch mode in a number of countries, expect it to become a regular feature here. 

#4 VW e-Golf – The evergreen e-Golf scored 3,037 units last month, with the veteran model seemingly immune to the long shadow of the ID.3, as Volkswagen milks everything it can from it, at least until its successor effectively lands, next September. Regarding June, the e-Golf main markets were Germany (1,310 units), Norway (707) and the Netherlands (299).

#5 Volvo XC40 PHEV – The compact Volvo continues to impress, after a looong production ramp up, that took the whole second half of last year (one would almost say that Volvo was playing with the recent CO2 rules...), this year things started to pick up quickly (well, if we exclude the pandemic-related period), with June registering a record 2,962 units. The biggest market for the Swedish (but Belgian-built) SUV was Norway, with 475 units, with Belgium buying 417 units of its home-made model, with the neighboring Netherlands also registering 374 units.

Ford Kuga PHEV: Best Selling PHEV

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the big news were the Renault Zoe consolidating its leadership, earning a 3,342 units advantage over the #2 Tesla Model 3, and with July helping the French model to win a few thousands more, it can have enough margin to sustain September high tide from the Model 3.

In the meantime, in (Super) September, the VW ID.3, should land with a bang, with the famous 30,000 1st Edition deliveries, that added to some 11,000 Zoe's and 17,000 Model 3's, it should provide 58,000 registrations for September in just 3 models! Add some 70,000 units from the remaining market, and we should have close to 130,000 units being delivered in one month! And some 11-12% market share! 

But back at the front runners race, with VW said to produce only 60,000 ID.3 this year, the best that the new German EV can aspire is this year Bronze medal, with Gold being discussed until the end by the two front runners, as both will be close in September, then the Zoe will win some edge in October, November should see both players keep their positions, and in December the Tesla Model 3 will profit from the high tide to go after #1.

If i had to bet my money, i would still go for the Model 3 as this year Best Seller, but the fact that it will have to run hard until the last days of the year was simply unimaginable just 6 months ago. 

In other news, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV recovered the 4th spot from the Audi e-Tron, with the German SUV now being threatened by the rising Peugeot 208 EV, now in #6, and just 272 units behind the big Audi.

But the Climber of the Month was the Volvo XC60 PHEV, that jumped 5 positions, to #9, thanks to a record 2,682 score in June, a new personal best for the midsize SUV, highlighting a very positive month for the Swedish maker, as it had several models shining, the S/V60 PHEV twins were up to #11, thanks to 2,010 deliveries, the midsizers best score since December 1813 2013, while the XC40 PHEV joined the table in #17, with a record 2,962 registrations, and even the XC90 PHEV barge flagship had its first four-digit score this year...

...And they were not the only ones hitting best ever performances, in a record month, personal bests were plentiful, like the Hyundai Kona EV reaching 2,745 units, thanks in no small part to the Czech-made units, its cousin Kia Niro EV also hit a record 2,342 units, and even the VW e-Up made had its moment, by delivering a record 1,850 units, while another Volkswagen Group veteran, the Audi A3 PHEV, had its best score (1,514 units) since December 2015!

Besides the aforementioned Volvo XC40 PHEV, we have another new face in the table, with the Ford Kuga PHEV jumping to #16, thanks to a record 3,684 deliveries, being the first Ford plugin to join the Top 20 Best Sellers table in Europe.   

Outside the Top 20, the ramp up of several models is starting to gain relevance, like the Mercedes A250e, with the German PHEV registering a record 1,471 units, or the Audi Q5 PHEV, that delivered 1,386 units, while on the BEV side, we have the Opel Corsa EV reaching a record 1,140 units, and on the other side of the scale, the Porsche Taycan had its best score yet, with 1,054 units. 

In the brands ranking, we have the most balanced race in the history of this ranking, with none other than 4 brands with 9% share (Tesla, BMW, Renault, Volkswagen), with Tesla hanging on to the throne by a thread (well, 489 threads...which are the number of units that separate Tesla from the #2 BMW), with only 1,155 units separating the #1 Tesla from the #4 Volkswagen, while Volvo (8%, up 1%) is rising, so we currently have five manufacturers running for #1...

...So if the models race is hard to predict, the brands trophy is casino gambling!

Finally, looking at the plugin rates of these brands, there are some interesting numbers, if Tesla is of course easy to see, 100%, the others show different pictures: BMW (13%) and Renault (10%) show moderate electrification rates, Volkswagen (6%) is below average, so the ID.3 is badly needed, while Volvo is the progressive force among these Legacy OEMs, with a 25% plugin rate, but there are other established makers with higher electrification rates, like Porsche (31%) or the French Luxury brand, DS (33%), with both profiting from the advantages of being small companies and therefore agile, proving once again what the Dinosaur theory says:

"In stable times, it's good to be big, because of scale, in disruptive times, it's good to be small, because you can change faster." 

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsizer sales are in another galaxy, and despite a slight fall in deliveries (-12% YoY) it won't have significant competition until next year, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (first 23 units in June) will remain a niche player and once the BMW iX3 lands, the German maker will be happy if it gets a third of sales of the current Model 3.

The real competition will only come when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but it will also outsell it, so...Enjoy the throne while you can, Model 3.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is still #2, but has seen its sales drop by 44% YoY (its high price is hurting the British Sports SUV), while the #3 Mercedes EQC is slowly ramping up, having already beaten the i-Pace in June (694 units vs 647), but Mercedes needs to ramp up production even further, if it wants to beat the Jaguar and reach Silver.

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable, and while Tesla prepares the Model S & X  refresh (October?), the Porsche Taycan continues to ramp up deliveries, having delivered almost as much units in June (1,054), as the Model S & X did...counted together! (1,096) 

The Model S sales in 2020 are down 43%, while for the same period, the e-Tron sales jumped 103%, which says a lot...