Open the Gates! (23% share!)
While the overall automotive market is still in red (-4% YoY), in December, Europe's passenger plugin market had an historic month, having registered a record 281,000 registrations (+264% YoY!), adding an amazing 115,000 units to the previous record, set in the previous month.
This impressive result shooted December's plugin share to 23% share (14% BEV), helping the 2020 numbers to rise 142% over those of the previous year, to well over 1 million units, and pulling the market into the...Disruption Zone, as the 2020 PEV share ended at 11% share (6.2% for BEVs alone), a significant departure from the 3.6% of 2019 (2.2% BEVs), so we can say with some certainty that part of the fall on the overall market has more to do with the disruption provoked by plugins than Covid-related issues. And so, let the games begin...
...Expect 2021 to continue the disruptive trend, so i expect 15%-plus 20% market share by the end of the year.
In December, BEVs ran fast (168.912 units, +223% YoY), but PHEVs are were even faster (+347%, 112,260 units), so in the final 2020 numbers, while plugin hybrids ended below (46% vs 54% share) fully electrics, they recovered a massive 10% share regarding the previous year.
Last month Best Seller was the VW ID.3, that did a Tesla-like peak in December and has beaten the Tesla Model 3 on a high tide month, the first time any model achieves such a feat.
Last month podium welcomes the fresh Renault Captur PHEV, with Renault placing for the first time two models in the Top 5, while also being the first time that the French brand wins the monthly PHEV Best Seller title. Something to repeat in 2021?...
Looking at December Top 5 Models:
#1 Volkswagen ID.3 - The much antecipated German EV was finally delivered in large volumes, by delivering a massive 28,108 units, which might look that the VW hatchback has finally grown into filling its big shoes, but one wonders how many of these registrations actual deliveries and how many were just self-registrations, on order to avoid the EU's CO2 emission fines...Moving on, the first MEB-platform based EV had its main markets in Germany (7,144 units), the Netherlands (6,083), and the UK (3,200), with Norway (2,303), France (2,550) and Sweden (2,564) also posting four digit scores. Expect VW's new baby to become a familiar face in the medal positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 and Renault Zoe for the monthly Best Seller title. Unless, of course, the new VW ID.4 starts to cast its shadow over its lower riding sibling...
#2 Tesla Model 3 - The 2019 Best Selling EV in Europe delivered a record 24,664 units, which in normal times would grant it the Best Seller honour. But in the current disruption period, anything can happen...The sports sedan main markets in December were the UK (5,700 deliveries), Norway (4,232), and Germany (3,293 units), with Switzerland (1,560) and Denmark (1,460) also scoring four digit scores. Expect the Model 3 to continue running for #1 throughout 2021. Unless, of course, the new Tesla Model Y starts to cast its shadow over its lower riding sibling...(Haven't i written this somewhere?)
#3 Renault Zoe – Despite ending only in 3rd, December was another great month for the French EV, with the 16,322 deliveries of the Renault model representing a record score, with the maker profiting from a mature manufacturing capability that allows it to respond almost immediately to demand peaks, thus avoiding those pesky waiting lists, so common in many other OEMs. Last month, the main markets were France (5,978 units) and Germany (5,349), with Italy (1,153 units) a distant 3rd. Expect the Zoe to continue running for the leadership during 2021, unless, of course, the new Renault Captur PHEV starts to cast its shadow over its lower riding sibling...(I am sure i had already written something like this before...)
#4 Hyundai Kona EV – Speaking about the Rise of the Crossovers, in December we had Hyundai's star EV shooting to its first five-digit score, with the small Crossover hitting a record 11,340 deliveries last month. Is this peak Kona EV? With the upcoming Ioniq 5 (not so) compact crossover said to be a small revolution in the EV World, one wonders if the Kona EV won't suffer from the new internal competition. Unless Hyundai lowers its price...But enough of futurology, and back to last month performance, the Netherlands was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 4,441 deliveries, followed by Germany (2,995 units), with Spain (578) being a distant 3rd.
#5 Renault Captur PHEV – Thanks to competitive pricing, at some 32,000€, it's one of the cheapest PHEVs in Europe, and an attractive design, the small Crossover from Renault has won its first Best Seller trophy in the PHEV field in December, with 6,135 units, with the French model proving to be a massive hit in Italy (2,120 units!), beating even its native France (1,437 units), while the 3rd largest market, at some distance, was Germany, with 806 deliveries. Now, this performance raises a few questions for the future: Will the small Crossover be able to win the 2021 Best Seller title in the PHEV category? Will it be able to replicate the success of the Zoe in Germany? Will it start to eat into the Zoe territory? After all we are living in the Crossover Craze era...
Looking at the remaining December Best Sellers, the Nissan Leaf was #7, with the 5,424 registrations of last month representing the hatchback best performance in 33 months(!), confirming that the current EV Force is so strong that even an old Jedi like the Leaf can pull some tricks from its sword.
In such an outstanding month, 17 models out of this Top 20 hit personal records, like the Audi e-Tron (5,296 units), VW e-Up (3,751) or even the Jaguar i-Pace, that surprised many by scoring a record 4,635 registrations (or were they self-registrations? Mmmm...) last month.
We also have two important freshmans showing up on the table, with the Fiat 500e jumping to #10 and the VW ID.4 coming literally out of nowhere into #11, expect these two EVs to become familiar faces here, with the Italian set to win the City Car category in 2021, while the German will do its best to beat the Tesla Model Y in the SUV category.
In the PHEV category, the Mercedes A250e couldn't resist the Renault Captur PHEV peak in December, but these two will have plenty of opportunities during 2021 to run against each other, as no one else seems to be able to run at the same pace of these two. Or is it?...
With the #13 SEAT Leon PHEV (4,353 units) and #14 VW Golf PHEV (4,245) in ramp up mode, and their Czech cousin Skoda Octavia PHEV also starting its production ramp up, not forgetting the BMW X1 PHEV (record 3,788 units), the PHEV title will have plenty of candidates playing in the biggest pool of the European market, the compact category, so the days where the Mitsubishi Outlander owned the PHEV category are now long gone, and all the better for that, the more choices there are on the market, the easier it gets for consumers to make the switch.
And having said that about PHEVs, the same goes for fully electric vehicles!
A final reference to the #19 Volvo XC40 PHEV, that was one of the few models not to score a record result in December, and the main reason for that is internal competition, as its XC40 EV twin is now fully in ramp up mode (3,269 units), and it seems to be draining its sales...
Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 3,246 registrations of the Renault Twingo EV, although one wonders how will the small Renault react to the arrival of its significantly cheaper Romanian cousin, the Dacia Spring, in a few months. The Mazda MX-30 also scored a record 3,238 units, although this is another case where we can imagine many of these registrations were made for compliance purposes.
Looking at the 2020 ranking, the Renault Zoe secured its 3rd Best Seller title, after the 2016 and '17 trophies, the French hatchback managed to beat last year winner, the Tesla Model 3, thanks to a deep refresh done in late 2019, that allowed it to more than double its sales in 2020, touching the 100,000 units in one year.
The runner-up Tesla Model 3 saw its deliveries dip 8% regarding 2019, from 95,000 units to the current 87,000, and this in a year of disruptive growth, which could raise the question: Is the Tesla Model Y shadow already making itself felt?
The last place of the podium went to the VW ID.3 rise, that jumped 3 spots in the last stage of the race, allowing the German EV to win its first medal, surely the first of many.
A reference also to the Nissan Leaf, that jumped to #7, which was still insufficient to reach the 4th spot it had in 2019.
On the PHEV League, after years and years of domination, it was the Best Seller since 2012, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was finally beaten!
Thanks to a year end peak, the Mercedes A250e managed to surpass the Japanese SUV and the Volvo XC40 PHEV, allowing the Mercedes compact model to win the category 2020 race, while earning the #10 position in the plugin table. For reference, in 2019, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV ended in #3, only behind the Renault Zoe and Tesla Model 3, so we now have a completely BEV Top 9!
Looking at the remaining position changes, the Volvo XC60 PHEV and BMW i3 were up one position, to #15 and #16 respectively, while the Mercedes GLC300e/de joined the table in December, ending the year in #19.
In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (12% share, up 1%) won the makers title, with the German brand jumping from 5th in 2019 to the leadership! Not Bad for a Year Zero...
The Silver Medal changed hands in the last stage of the race, with Mercedes (9%) beating Renault (also 9%) by just 5,000 units, this is the Three-pointed-star manufacturer first podium position, while Renault repeated the 2019 Bronze medal.
Outside the podium, BMW (8%) managed to beat Tesla and Volvo (both with 7% share), in the race for the 4th position.
Interestingly, if Volkswagen and Mercedes joined the podium, BMW was down from 2nd in 2019 to 4th, while the 2019 Best Seller Tesla was down to #5, with its share dropping from 20% in 2019, to the current 7%.
BEV D-Segment / Midsize category
Tesla's midsize sedan sales ended in another galaxy, although it has seen its sales drop by 8%.
In fact, Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, at least until its Model Y sibling lands, as the Polestar 2 (record 3,188 units last month) seems too niche for the moment, and with expansion plans only set to be enabled by mid-2021, don't expect much more from the Sino-Swede in 2021.
The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it comes close to the the Mercedes EQC...Which, by the way, has beaten once again its personal best, having delivered 2,979 units last month, so it seems the Mercedes midsize SUV slooow ramp up still hasn't ended, and should continue in the following months.
As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace profited from the new, cheaper, EV320 version, to suddenly jump its registrations to 4,635 units, the Sports SUV best score ever. Now, how much of these were self-registrations?...
BEV E-Segment / Full size category
The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring 5,296 units last month, with its sales growing 26% YoY, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will the growth rates will be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...With Audi already discounting its big EV, expect this moment to come soon.
With the #2 Porsche Taycan (2,209 units last month, a new record) accelerating its sales once again, the main interest layed on the 3rd spot, where the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (1,367 units) has managed to beat both flagship Teslas in December.
Still, in the whole of 2020, the Tesla Model X was 3rd, with 6,253 units, but in 2021 there will be several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), that have potential to beat the Porsche Taycan saleswise, making the 2021 race all the more interesting to follow, but should also render the Big Teslas even more irrelevant. Something needs to be done...
Although EVs have made an impressive inroad into the luxury and upper middle class market, EVs are not really affordable cars for the masses yet. Even the Renault Zoe is not an affordable car including all costs. And on the long run subsidies at the current levels are basically public money for luxury goods. What we need is still an affordable car for the masses without subsidies. Tesla could not do it and much more intelligent solutions are necessary for the future.
ReplyDeleteWell, a basic Golf, diesel of course, is 26000 in Germany. If VW can make good on their promise and deliver a 30000 EUR ID.3, then it's not so bad. Of course, you might not get any dealer discounts if you're buying the ID.3. But it's still a very much new car, it's understandable they won't want to discount it just yet. Probably the same with the new Golf, I would expect. Anyways, EVs don't need to be the exact same price as ther ICE counterparts. Diesels never got to be as cheap as their gasoline brethren and they still sell, although their golden age has sailed. And the Golf is indeed a car for the masses.
Delete@Ricardo: +1!
DeleteVW Golf: 4267 l x 1803 w x 1473 h
DeleteVW ID.3: 4262 l x 1809 w x 1552 h
Dimensions of Golf & ID.3; ID.3 is 79 mm taller and its significant difference for a person who is tall or when you want to load a washer/dryer/freezer into your car. Thats why I am reiterating that ID.3 is a crossover and not a hatchback. Somewhere you have to draw the line: 1500 mm height is that line. If you keep it vague, then someone can call Chevy Suburban, Landrover Defender as hatchbacks.
Being a crossover; ID.3 cannot be compared to Golf. Besides, a BEV has much smoother drive than diesel and much cheaper operating cost.
If govt gives euro 8.000 subsidy, then VW will swallow it and price it at euro 32.000. Once its gone, may be it will come to euro 30.000 when cheaper imports roll in. That day is not very far, may be it could happen in 2022, probably end 2022.
EV incentives are not "public money for luxury goods". They merely compensate for the unpriced externalities of combustion cars; and calling something like the Zoe a "luxury product" is ridiculous.
Delete(Unless you consider *all* private cars luxury products, which frankly they are... I'm fine with raising taxes on combustion cars instead, as long as EVs are taxed less, reflecting their lower cost to society.)
Also, EV prices have come down significantly over the past few years, and will come down more with the likes of of Dacia Spring -- with many others to follow without doubt. (And of course Tesla too will keep introducing more affordable models...)
more intelligent solutions:to remove costs and reduce prices for the existing model range,offer more advanced cars,and not produce Wuling HongGuang Mini EV(in my opinion)
Delete@famlin
DeleteID3 is just lifted higher because the battery was put underneath.
That's why it looks like a bit like van.
Maybe it is better to compare interior dimensions.
Exactly: BEVs (with decent range) always have to be somewhat taller to offer the same interior, because of the battery in the floor.
DeleteCalling the ID.3 a "crossover" makes no sense whatsoever. It doesn't look like a crossover, it doesn't feel like a crossover, it doesn't even have any additional ground clearance. It's a quintessential hatchback.
Crossovers are generally over 1.6 m -- except for sub-compact "crossovers" such as the Kona, which is really just a hatchback with different styling... But that just underscores the point that drawing a fixed line makes no sense at all: it's more a matter of proportions -- i.e. a longer vehicle has to be taller to qualify as a crossover than a tiny sub-compact.
@Koogle
DeleteIf you want to exclude the battery height, then you should exclude the higher ground clearance of crossovers which will make some of them hatchbacks. Its just the roof height of vehicle that counts. Lets call a vehicle with height >= 1.500 mm as crossover.
Van is a vehicle with sliding doors and this segment is declining everywhere (China, USA, Europe).
Can somebody explain the self-registrations? What do they mean?
ReplyDeleteAll cars need to be registered and that is what counts. But you don't have to sell it to register it, you can register it at dealers and put them on a parking lot and then sell them to customers.
DeleteTherefor a lot of electric cars ended up on dealer lots and will be properly sold in the beginning of this year. So some models will have very few new registrations for a while until those are sold and delivered.
In this case, "Self-Registrations" are vehicles that were licensed by the dealership/brand as "Demonstration"/"Service" units, etc, to be sold on a later date to buyers/leasing companies, which explains why in January BEV registrations are looking so low, as there is a large pool of units with December 2020 license plates, available on dealerships and ready for sale.
DeleteSelf registration is getting a license plate for a vehicle before it is sold to a customer.
DeleteThis way it counts as a sale in the period the license plate is obtained.
@Jose Pontes: I hope these vehicles are eventually sold and not kept in cold storage for long.
DeleteFor record, Chevy Volt production ended on 2019-02-14 and still 9 Volts are sleeping in dealer lots. In another 19 days, we can celebrate and give them "sleeper award" and to the company.
Yes,due to self-registration in December,we will have a severe hangover in January
DeleteItaly,Denmark,Netherlands,Switzerland,Spain today(27 January) have BEV share less than 5%.Can Germany and France helps?
DeleteSo, these figures mean that Europe outsold China (by a razor thin margin) for the first time since 2015?
ReplyDeleteYes.
DeleteTesla, though only in PEV sales. When it comes to BEV sales China still leads by a decent margin (not saying that PHEVs are bad but they should not be directly compared with BEVs 1:1).
DeleteWhen counting all plug-in vehicles, yes.
DeleteBut only counting the more important BEV numbers, no.
Europe has clearly a better range of attractive BEV in the mid-size class.
DeleteChina has better cheap and small cars and a multitude of niche producers. Those small producers have to grow and merge fast to survive. The big boys are coming to play.
The sales of the e-Tron and Taycan make clear that there is a market for > €100k BEV.
DeleteThe Tesla models are cheaper in the e-segment and have more range and charge faster. They are equal or better driving machines. What they lack is the more luxurious and refined interior that Audi and Porsche offer.
When MB and BMW get to volume production with their top models, Tesla has to reevaluate its interior design approach.
@Maarten: here is the big difference. 92% of Tesla vehicles are sold and 8% are leased. A person who pays out of pocket will use it extensively to get ROI. On the other hand, the other BEVs especially luxury 1s of which nearly 2/3 are leased may be driven extensively since the leasholder is typically a rich man whose aim is to milk the company's benefits than caring for environment.
DeleteMy point is average Tesla vehicle will drive lot more miles with superchargers all over to charge them on long drives besides the higher range. Compare the 650 km range of Model S with 1/2 that of Taycan. They should name it TayCannot.
Porsche only advantage is better interior? Really?! Taycan is quicker, charge faster, has Cannonball record and no, no Tesla is better driving machine. Get real. ;)
DeleteChina has attractive BEVs in pretty much all classes... There is a bunch of models that officially fall into a smaller class than Model 3 according to Chinese classification, but are actually only slightly smaller AFAIK.
DeleteTesla doesn't have to reevaluate their interior design approach. Not everyone likes the minimalism, but many people do. They can't please everyone -- nor do they have to.
Delete(And most people will likely come around over time... Minimalism is a trend that has defined many premium products for decades, and is *finally* making its way into car interiors.)
@antrik
Delete"Not everyone likes the minimalism, but many people do.Tesla doesn't have to reevaluate their interior design approach"
Totally agree with you.Minimalism is cool
Let Mercedes and BMW revise their artsy design
DeleteIn market share Europe is quite a bit ahead of China. In PEV and BEV only
DeleteTaycan is quicker? That's so yesterday :-P
Delete(I doubt the other points will stand against the new Model S either -- we shall see soon enough...)
@Sven Dubai BEV share for the whole year is not that much higher...
DeleteWill be interesting to see whether the difference will become bigger this year :-)
@antrik: true BEV is not much higher. But considering that the overall perception is that Europe is the sleepy continent and always behind China and USA, this is quite remarkable. Let's see if Europe won't see a revival?
DeleteMeh. While the new mandate is finally forcing European makers into action, they seem to have pretty much missed the train at this point... Between Tesla on one hand, and several Chinese makers significantly stepping up their EV game in recent times on the other (not to mention batteries that appear to be world-leading by now), I have a hard time seeing much hope left for the European makers to remain relevant... (Or other global incumbents, for that matter.)
Delete(As for sales: Europe saw a huge growth last year; and there will be another significant increase this year, because of the strict mandate -- but after that, forced growth will come to a halt, and the uninspiring compliance models won't move much for the next couple of years, until natural demand growth catches up and takes over as the main driver again...)
Delete"Audi already discounting its big EV [e-Tron]"
ReplyDeleteCan you explain please
discounts + self registrations increased last month sales. may be current month sales will show the reality. ultimately car should go to users hands to be used to reduce the pollution.
Deleteyyyyuuuu rope, yyyy uuuu rock. Wonderful 281.171 / 23% share. 2020s 1.367.138 / 11% is another great effort.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations VW.3 for taking #1 (2020-12) and #3 (2020). Effort pays off. Hope ID.4 joins the effort.
Great job Tesla for #2 despite still local competition and having to pay import duty. Hope Model Y joins the effort.
Good to see Zoe and Kona hitting 5 digits.
Next challenge is how they transition to subsidy free market.
Meanwhile end of diesel in Europe starts, still it has following in Asia especially India which is big with diesel. But diesel prices are close to parity with petrol there.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/death-diesel-looms-carmakers-accelerate-135331059.html
In another 30 - 32 hours, expect surprises from Tesla earnings call. Profit is 99% certain. Whether any news about Model S/X, solar panels/tiles is what I am expecting.
ReplyDeleteTesla will see some sales increase in europe with price reductions. Still competition will tough and they have to pay duties until Giga-Berlin starts. Frankly I expect Giga-Berlin to have some delays since it involves whole new design with battery integrated into structure. But when they settle, it will be whole different story.
But some Model Y could come from MIC. Still a person considering diesel should give serious thought to electric.
Pretty sure profit is more than 99% certain... They significantly increased volumes, while prices remained largely stable. If there was some freak event causing losses nevertheless, we surely would have learned about it already.
DeleteTesla results have been disappointing. Buying Chinese standard technology and selling it in US/Europe is not a value adding innovative step. Tesla needs real break through innovation to be credible. So far Tesla is mostly based on hot air.
DeleteJust europe (281.171) + china (224.082) = 505.253 PEV. What a wonderful month. I am sure last month will hit 570K - 580K on a conservative basis. USA, canada, korea, japan are the next big players. It will be a big jump over prior month. What if europe cut the subsidies by 10% / month, at least cut the PHEV subsidies.
ReplyDeleteVW ID.3/ID.4 and Model 3/Y will be leading the BEV charge and few others will join while PHEV are gaining just by excessive # of models being launched and the bloated subsidies. Hope Renault Zoe launches multiple battery ranges to stay competitive with VW ID.3
Please write to your local / state / national politicians to remove the PHEV subsidies.
Many new BEVs are set to hit europe and they should not blindly price the vehicle to gobble all subsidies.
595k PEVs in Q4, more than full year 2019!
ReplyDeleteID3 led Q4 with 48.4k (8%), Zoe was 2nd with 36.1k (6%) and Model 3 took the bronze with 30.1k (5%).
Model 3 share was 17% in 2019, so 5% in Q4 2020 is a dramatic decline. It should bounce back a little in Q1/Q2 as the 95g frenzy ebbs for a while. But can Model 3 hold onto 3rd place for the full year? Or will the 2021 podium be VW, VW, Renault?
Tesla sets new prices for the M3.Very tempting offer,I would give victory to M3
DeleteWell Tesla Model S and X refresh is all but confirmed by now, so hopefully it will breathe in some fresh air to their sales.
ReplyDeleteIt was planned that the conveyor will be launched on January 18,but there's still no news or I don't know
DeleteTesla needs urgent refreshing as sales slumped in the Netherlands to just 10 Model 3, one Model S and no Model X in January this year. Tesla is now not even in the first ten cars sold in the Netherlands. Same story in Norway.
DeleteSignificant interior refresh, which was needed, but apparently the same exterior. I don't think that will help grow sales. Plaid will help a little.
Delete@Heinrich it's always this way in 1st month of the quarter in Europe, Tesla sell almost zero cars because there are no cars to sell, not because there's no demand. The first Tesla carrier ship of this quarter will only reach Europe early next month.
Delete@Doggydogworld it will definitely help with those who were holding back because of an expected update... Which might be quite a lot of people, considering how long it has been stipulated.
Delete(Also, not only Plaid is getting improved specs...)
@antrik - 10k more for updated interior and minor spec changes won't cut it, IMHO. A lot of this market is image projection, but the exterior is the same. After an early burst I see y/y sales falling unless they bring the price back down.
DeleteNo doubt sales will pull back after an initial burst -- but I'd expect them to remain above last year's level. (At least until the next round of refresh rumours starts popping up...)
DeleteBTW, the exterior is not identical. The differences are subtle, but sufficient for people familiar with these cars to tell the difference. Probably good enough for those who are interested in a new model only to show off about having the newest model...
Hello,
ReplyDeleteVW id.3 has 28K in december but for Jan 1-26 Eu-evs shows only 96 for the 9 countries it follows.
Is the factory closed due to pandemic or is there something else?
Not for 9 but for 3.VW sold 15000 ID3"surplus"due to self-registration in December and are now selling them to customers
DeleteAny chance of US report for Dec 2020?
ReplyDeleteYes agree, that would be very interesting to see the US numbers, or estimations.
DeleteAudi,Tesla,Jaguar,Nissan already discounting.Who is next?
ReplyDeleteAccording to the head of Renault BEV have good profitability(taking into account subsidies).It's time for everyone to lower the price a little(Tesla-example)
ReplyDeleteTesla adapted prices in Euro-zone for changed exchange rates. That doesn't affect makers producing in Europe.
DeleteWhatever you call it will make a huge difference for the entire market
DeleteIt may very well that France will become the N1 market for M3 in Europe 2021.I expect explosive growth in this market
ReplyDeleteAccording to my calculations,Tesla on the remainder of about 4000 cars in Europe,this was the reason for the price reduction,which is very correct and gives hope for good sales in 2021 all BEV
ReplyDeleteI think it should have been "Audi already discontinuing it's.." meaning that Audi is going to stop making the etron and move over to the etron Q4 and subsequent models.
ReplyDeleteQ4 is made in Zwickau, correct? Brussels should continue to make other eTrons.
DeleteThe e-Tron will continue to be sold, but once the Q4 e-Tron is in the market, its sales will suffer, a bit like what happened to the Model S when the Model 3 showed up.
DeleteThe positive results of a combination of mandates and subsidies in Europe are a good sign for what can happen in the USA under the Biden administration.
ReplyDeleteI expect BEVs to recover share in 2021, since most new/renewed PHEV models seem to have been introduced and ramped in 2020, while many important BEV models will only be introduced in 2021, or were introduced very late in 2020: ID.4 and its siblings, ID.3 (for the most part) and its siblings, Model Y, Mach e, Ariya, Ioniq 5, e-C4 and its siblings, XC40 BEV, Fiat 500e, Dacia Spring, Twingo EV, EQA and EQB...
ReplyDeleteI really want to believe in your expectations,but something tells me that most of the lines in the table will be black and BEV share <50%
DeleteAccording to the first estimate PHEV-70% in January
DeleteModel Y, Mach e, Ariya, Ioniq 5, e-C4, EQA and EQB.Will the supply of these models be significant?At Twingo-just a stupid price
DeleteJanuary doesn't matter... The trend will only become clear later in the year.
DeleteI only listed models that I expect to have significant sales. (On the order of 30,000 per year or so at least -- and a lot more for some of them...)
DeleteOf course it remains to be seen whether all of these will already ramp for real this year... But most of them should.
January and February won't be representative of the rest of the year, by the end of March we should see the first trends for the rest of the year.
DeleteWe're talking about 21 years old,right?In my opinion,none these models will be close to 30000.
Delete"January and February won't be representative of the rest of the year"
Everything understands it,but the share PHEV is growing rapidly(65-70% it never happened)
Doesn't XC40 PHEV not scoring a record have more to do with Volvo reaching their emission goal early, thus delaying further deliveries into 2021, than with XC40 BEV introduction?...
ReplyDelete@José the e-Up! and the Smart didn't place in the top 20 last year, but they certainly weren't "not available"...
ReplyDelete(Perhaps also the Passat GTE? Don't remember for sure...)
Tesla earnings call: Sold 499.647 units (353 short of 500.000).
ReplyDeleteAutomotive revenue of US$ 27.236 million , Automotive profit of US$ 6.977 million.
Solar 205 MW. By most metrics, they have 30% + higher despite pandemic causing havoc.
Model S steering WHEEL - no more. Its more like steering RECTANGLE.
Only downside is 10% decrease in Model S/X and it should increase with the refresh.
Europe is now Nr.1 in market share of PEV and BEV. Way higher than China and USA or Japan
ReplyDeleteWould it be possible to get a Manufacturer Ranking (for Europe).
ReplyDeleteSome numbers you can find here:
Deletehttps://www.schmidtmatthias.de/post/legislation-works-european-electric-car-market-full-year-2020-round-up
Thank you.
Delete1. VW Group: 174'000 / + 244% / 23.9% share
2. Renault/N/M: 136'000 / + 73% / 18.6%
3. Tesla: 98'000 / - 11% / 13.4%
4. Hyundai/Kia: 95'000 / + 119% / 13.0%
5. PSA: 70'000 / + 1286% / 9.6%
Customers asked for better interior and here you go. Tesla Model S/X gets
ReplyDeleteRectangle Steering: Smaller and may be convenient, after all computer drives for more than 1/2 the time.
Horizontal Monitor: May be this is like TV / Monitor that people are used to.
Rear seat monitor: For rear seat passengers to watch video, play games.
Others: Few more miles, more pickup, more goodies.
But price goes up by $10.000. Still you get a car with 650 km range while the competition comes to just 400 km. Probably they are seeing more orders thats why they set the price higher.
Keep in mind that they lowered the price of the old version only a few weeks ago, in preparation of the new version... The new price is really the same price as before.
Delete(Except for Plaid being more expensive than the old Performance has been for years...)
That's great you like the Old Lady's this-just-one-more-facelift, because the 2017 annouced Roadster now is due for 2022 and the promised for 2019 Truck is yet to start in 2021 performing any kinds of haulages, all the while Volvo VNRs have been doing them before the end of 2020.
DeleteThank Good Tesla don't ship out-of-their-gates any kind of clocks...
Volvo having a bunch of low-range prototype trucks on the roads is nothing to brag about really. (And BTW Tesla's prototypes have been hauling goods on and off for years...) There is still nothing even close to Tesla's Semi in production, or even announced.
DeleteWhile two years delay for the Semi and the new Roadster is sad, it's no worse than the constant delays from Tesla's so-called competition.
It's very pedantic but, the 'haulages' from the perennial Tesla prototypes aren't in any ways comparable to all the ones already taking place US-wide in several applications/locations, being it federal/state driven programmes or private fleets using the already large selection of electric LGVs from several providers. Volvo is the first US-based manufacturer to enter series-production of electric LGVs (not prototypes, as you misleadingly claim) that are available for business lease or outright purchase.
DeleteNone of the vented Tesla vapourware is at the moment. And no one finds value on dragstrip metrics and central seating for any of the local distribution or regional logistic duties.
You Tesla diehard fanboys are dangerously exposing your fragile skin to huge loads of Flak. It is no longer 2008 and Uncle Biden isn't Uncle Sam either.
Newsflash: Tesla Semi was never aiming at local distribution. Low-effort short-range trucks from other makers don't affect it at all. But keep flaunting your ignorance, as you haters are so keen on doing.
DeleteModel S Plaid + gets 830 km range. So BEVs are closing towards 1.000 km mark. And its with 3 motors for just 0-100 km/h in 2 seconds. Trunk has 744 litres of space with another 150 liters in frunk. Total of 844 liters.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the battery size?. 130 KWh, 140 KWh ... So they are matching the competition.
Going by range of Plaid+ vs. "regular" Plaid, and assuming the "regular" Plaid still has ~100 kWh battery, the Plaid+ probably has ~135 kWh.
DeleteScotland launches fuelcell(hydrogen) buses. No idea as how much it could compete with Battery. There is also plan to transport hydrogen thru natural gas pipelines, whether this is safe and can be handled cost effectively ?. Our 1st goal is to get rid of diesel cars and buses.
ReplyDeleteThey mentioned "25 kg of hydrogen taking less than 10 minutes and offering a greater range of 250 miles,"
Thats 10 miles / kg of hydrogen. Is that possible, a diesel double decker bus could hardly travel 1 mile / liter of diesel. Seems 1 kg of hydrogen = 2.5 kg of diesel (2.9 liters)
https://electrek.co/2021/01/28/egeb-worlds-first-hydrogen-double-decker-buses-launch-in-scotland/
Fuel cell is a lot more efficient than combustion engine. (Though not nearly as much as battery...) 10 miles/kg seems plausible.
DeleteStill, it's a dead-end technology. Batteries can offer similar specs at a much lower price. (Both initial price and energy costs.) In any area where batteries work -- which includes pretty much any form of land transport -- hydrogen is hopeless. There *might* be some room for hydrogen in other niches: but then again, there might be better alternatives. We will see.
And BTW, transporting hydrogen through existing high-pressure (long-distance) natural gas pipelines is actually not possible. It's just one of the many fairy tales of the hydrogen lobby. (Which is mostly just the fossil fuel lobby... https://www.jadecove.com/research/hydrogenscam )
Delete@antrik: Many many many thanks for posting this webpage.
DeleteSignificant points: Nice way to color the sources
Green hydrogen: Using electrolysis with electricity coming from renewable energy
Blue hydrogen: Using methane + electricity and capturing carbon using CCS
Brown hydrogen: Using methane (vertical / fracked wells)
Black hydrogen: Using coal to convert to methane and then to hydrogen.
In reality, oil companies will never promote hydrogen because this could benefit only their natgas business since the fuel contains 80% hydrogen, but not their oil business.
Also the fuel cell vehicle running on motor (3 times efficient) will consume much less hydrogen (from natgas) than burning natgas directly in engine. Besides it will make oil worthless. Oil cannot compete with natgas on energy basis. If the coal comes into hydrogen play, again the oil companies will block coal.
So the crux is that the oil companies use hydrogen to ensure that neither battery nor the fuel cell succeeds and let the world transport keep running on oil. Notorious fellows.
And they are fully backed by legacy automakers like toyota who are not interested in both battery & fuelcell. Otherwise toyota could have built hydrogen stations just like Tesla built charging stations.
What makes Hydrogen competitive is the high price for charging BEVs.
DeleteIf you pay 70 cents for 1 kwh this can compensate a lot of hydrogen disadvantages.
While some fast-charging stations indeed ask such absurd prices, people rarely use these. The vast majority of charging is at home (or at work) for a fraction of that cost; or slow public chargers, that are also much cheaper. Even fast charging is often a lot cheaper. The expensive chargers will increasingly get priced of the market, as the space becomes more competitive.
DeleteHydrogen on the other hand is generally more expensive (especially when renewable) -- and always will be. (Since it's a lot less efficient than charging batteries.)
@famlin while the colours aren't really standardised, hydrogen from steam methane reforming of natural gas is pretty much universally referred to as grey hydrogen. Hydrogen from coal or other fossils is sometimes also included in the grey hydrogen moniker; or alternatively broken out, typically as brown, or less commonly as black. (Sometimes further distinguished into "brown" from lignite and "black" from hard coal...)
DeleteCoal is not converted to methane BTW, but rather to syngas, from which the hydrogen can be extracted. And the same can in fact also be done with oil -- although less common.
There are some other types as well: most importantly turquoise, which uses methane pyrolysis instead of steam reforming. (Currently experimental: but could be a better alternative to blue hydrogen, if it works out...)
Further colours are sometimes used for other types, but are even less standardised than grey/brown/black, so probably not worth mentioning...
For fossil fuel industry, US govt gives $20 billion in subsidies and Europe give 55 billion euros. Is the Paris accord real?
ReplyDeleteFirst these subsidies should be removed once the Covid is controlled. This will increase price of petrol/diesel which will prompt many to consider/buy BEV.
There is a concept called Double-C, Double-P.
That means capitalize on cost, privatize the profit. Oil companies are masters in spreading the cost (pollution) to everyone while they privatize (swindle) the profits.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/28/biden-orders-end-to-fossil-fuel-subsidies-promotes-equity-for-underserved-communities/
#competitionpoachingyourlunch
ReplyDeletewritten by Looney Tunes
Thank you!
ReplyDeleteCould you please post the ranking for USA, too