Models: Tesla and the Chinese take the spotlight
Registrations were up for an impressive 136% last month, to some 270.000 units, with BEVs in particular jumping 139%, to some 173.000 units, and with February being usually the lowest volume month, expect from then on numbers to jump over 300.000 units per month in the remainder of the year, so we might be seeing the plugin market hit some 4,5 million (5 million?) this year.
On the other hand, with the current sales drops pushing down the overall automotive market, the 2021 PEV share is now at 4.6% (3% BEV), which is already above the 4% of last year, and expect it to continue growing throughout the year, to a large single digit number, as Disruption (eg, two digit market shares) on a global level is looking set to happen in 2022...
The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.
After a brief interruption in January, the Tesla Model 3 returned to the monthly leadeship in February, but the rising star is its Model Y sibling, with the sports crossover in 3rd, thus making two Teslas in the podium.
Interestingly, the other three models on the February Best Sellers list are all Chinese, with the highlight being the full-size #5 BYD Han EV, with 4.100 units (the PHEV Han had 928 units), with the big BYD now ruling the full-size category.
But the most significant result was the 6th spot of the Ford Mustang Mach-E, that delivered 4.023 units in its first real month on the market, losing a Top 5 presence by just 77 units, and becoming immediately the Best Selling model from a Legacy OEM. A sign of things to come?
On the PHEV side, the Best Selling model was the Volvo XC60 PHEV (3.904 units), with Swedish maker making a 1-2 win last month, as the Volvo XC40 PHEV (3.768) was the category runner-up model.
On the YTD table, the Tesla Model 3 is still in 2nd place, but has reduced the distance to ther #1 Wuling Mini EV by 8k units and should leap ahead of the tiny Chinese EV in March, thanks to the usual end of quarter Tesla high tide.
The Tesla Model Y has secured its Bronze Medal position, distancing itself from the #4 BYD Han EV, while the first position change happened in #7, with the Volvo XC60 PHEV jumping ahead of the Li Xiang One and BMW 530e/Le, with the Swedish SUV becoming the new leader of the PHEV category, and highlighting Volvo's good moment, the XC40 PHEV was also up, from #15, to #11, thus making two models of the maker in the Top 4 PHEV positions.
The BEV side also had several changes, with several Best Sellers recovering from a poor January performance, like the Nissan Leaf, that jumped 4 spots, to #10, or the Audi e-Tron, that was up 3 places, to #13.
Others re-joined the table, like it was the case of the Volkswagen ID.3, that jumped to #15, or the Hyundai Kona EV, now in #17.
Still, many of them are still frankly below their 2020 positions, like the Renault Zoe, currently in #12, but 3rd last year, the VW ID.3, #6 last year but now only #15, or the Hyundai Kona EV, 5th then, and only #17 now. While the VW ID.3 should recover during the year to reach (or beat) last year standing, both the Korean and French model will have a hard time to recover their former glory.
Another highlight in February was the Changan Benni EV, that scored a record 3.304 units, allowing it to join the table in #18, being the 7th Chinese model on the table.
Outside the Top 20, two models are set to join the table soon, with the #21 Peugeot 208 EV some 300 units behind the #20 BMW 330e, while the Ford Mustang Mach-e (4.321 units in 2021) could also jump to a Top 20 position next month.
Looking at each category BEV leaders, the Wuling Mini EV reigns supreme in the City EV category (A segment), the Renault Zoe is some 500 units ahead of the Hyundai Kona EV, in the B segment, while on the compact category, we have a surprise, with the veteran Nissan Leaf ahead of the VW ID.3, by some 800 units (to be recovered in March?), the midsize category (D segment) has both Teslas comfortably on top, and in the full size category (E/F segments), the BYD Han EV is a clear leader, almost doubling the sales of the #2 Audi e-Tron, while selling 3x as much as the category 3rd placed, the Porsche Taycan (4.265 units).
Manufacturers: Tesla returns to #1
Tesla's February score (42.679 units) allowed it to recover the leadership position from the SGMW joint-venture, with both brands counted together having almost a quarter of the market (23%).
BMW profited from a slower month from BYD to cement its Bronze Medal position, while both Volkswagen and Volvo jumped two spots last month, with the first going up to #5, while the second climbed to #6. Highlighting the VW Group current recovery mode, after a January in hangover mode, Audi was also up in February, in this case, to 9th.
On the second half of the table, Renault was up two spots, to #13, which is still down 6 spots on its 7th position of 2020, while Hyundai climbed to #18, 7 places down on its 2020 standing. It seems it wasn't only Volkswagen experiencing serious hangover effects in January...
A rather surprising rise in the table was Toyota going up 3 places, to #15, with its RAV4 PHEV adding precious volumes to the Japanese maker Chinese operations.
Ford joined the table, in #17, thanks to 6.680 units, its second best score ever (July 2020 is the current peak, with 7.289 units), and with the Mustang Mach-e production ramp up now in full motion, expect the Dearborn maker to beat its current record soon, while jumping a few more positions during the next couple of months.
Outside the Top 20, a reference to a recovering #21 Nissan, now only 500 units away from a Top 20 spot, while the rising #23 Changan could reach the table in the coming months.
In a brief view of the OEM standings, SAIC (14%) is still ahead, but has Tesla (13%) knocking on its door and should surpass it next month, while the VW Group (11%) is also in recovery mode, and while it shouldn't be enough to surpass the Chinese maker, it should recover some ground. One thing is certain, as things look now, these three OEMs should have an entertaining race to follow throughout the year. (Bring on the popcorn!)
read that this week the main WV plant reached the production of 1000 cars per day, one plant. I wonder where they hide the products or again problems with the soft.
ReplyDeleteWhat does "NK" stand for?
ReplyDelete(Since all of these models were available last year, could you provide the last year placement, even though they didn't enter the top 20?...)
NK - "Not Known"
DeleteIf Ford really only intends to make 50,000 Mach-E this year, than the monthly number shouldn't go much higher than in February -- so I'm not sure we should expect it to enter the top 20 soon...
ReplyDeleteLet's talk again in April, shall we? ;-)
DeleteHow is Ford blue in the YTD brands table? They don't have any BEV models other than the Mach-E, do they?...
ReplyDeleteLight blue means 50+% of the PEV their sold are BEVs - with 9691 PEVs sold YTD by Ford that means it must have sold at least 4841 BEVS in first two months. Since we know that they sold 4321 Mach-es in February that's almost guaranteed.
Deletethey have plug-in-hybrid models
DeleteThere is nothing "almost guaranteed". My whole point is that I'm not aware of them having any BEV models other than the Mach-E -- and Mach-E alone is less than half the total.
Delete(They used to have models such as the Focus electric -- but didn't they discontinue all of these?...)
It's not less half the total, as long as Ford delivered at least 525 Mach-es in January, which they almost certainly did.
DeleteThank you Sr. Pontes for the statistics.
ReplyDeleteThe sales of plug-ins for January and now February are showing an increase of sales above 100% compared to the same months in 2020. The foregoing would indicate (maybe) that overall sales for 2021 could reach 7 million BEVs/PHEVs, which would be wonderful news and would place 2021 in the disruption zone.
However, the issue at hand is whether the manufacturers can produce that many EVs and if they could, whether there will be a sufficient supply of batteries for 7 million cars.
Perhaps if the majority of EVs sold are PHEVs, then there might be enough batteries to spread around all the manufacturers. Indeed recent statistics appear to show that PHEVs are overtaking BEV sales.
Does anyone have any idea of the production targets for EVs from the different manufacturers for 2021? The impression seems to me that no matter how many EVs are produced, they are all sold....
The growing popularity of PHEVs are pretty much Europe-only phenomenon, in China and US they've have pretty small market shares compared to BEVs and have been loosing ths PEV market share. And even European popularity is pretty dependant on incentives.
DeleteNice to see 270K sales in a month marked by pandemic lockdown in europe and holiday week in china.
ReplyDeleteTop-7 months, remains the same.
2021 has 2 months in top-12, 2020: 6 months, 2019: 2 months, 2018: 2 months
2020-12: 571.475
2020-11: 414.368
2020-09: 345.519
Next 9 months are
2020-10: 341.531
2021-01: 321.031
2018-12: 286.367
2019-12: 279.214
2021-02: 269.743
2019-06: 264.591
2020-07: 247.575
2020-08: 240.981
2018-11: 237.553
2020-06: 229.894 is out of top-12
Does anyone know what is the cost of a single supercharger/fast charger. How much will it cost to install a supercharge every 100 km.
ReplyDeletePer wiki, Tesla supercharging station cost range from $100.000 in 2013 to $270.000 in 2015 and this increase could be because of more chargers / charging station. They also claim that 23,277 chargers are operating in 2,564 stations which brings an average of 9 chargers / station.
Even if we take the highest cost $270.000 and divide by average chargers of 9; $270.000 / 9 = $30.000 / charger including the components to accept payment and installation.
With Tesla building a plant in china to make 10.000 superchargers/year, the cost should be down drastically.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/12/25-ways-tesla-achieved-the-impossible-in-2020/
The first figure seems on the low side... Figures for ultra-fast (350 kW) CCS chargers I have seen were on the order of $30,000 - $50,000 per stall at least IIRC -- and that doesn't include installation and interconnection costs, which are likely higher than equipment costs in most cases...
DeleteHaving said that, V2 Superchargers are only 150 kW, which should presumably be cheaper. (While V3 have more power, yet supposedly have lower CapEx costs than V2...)
@antrik
DeleteWhile a car itself like Model 3 costs only $38.000, while should a charger thats much smaller cost an average of $40.000. Do you think the mass produced Tesla supercharger in china should cost much lower.
Scale is a huge factor: volumes are some two orders of magnitude smaller than car production -- which makes a significant difference for mass production.
DeleteWith V2 Superchargers, Tesla partially side-stepped this issue by using the same electronics as the onboard chargers in the cars -- which gave them scale, but isn't optimal in itself. (They likely needed something like two dozen units for a pair of stalls being able to deliver 150 kW?...)
(In the meantime, scale got to a point where it made sense to create a dedicated design for V3 Superchargers -- which BTW were already being mass-produced in New York, before they additionally set up Chinese production -- as the efficiency of the custom design apparently outweighs the smaller scale at this point...)
Other cost factors might include the fact that infrastructure needs to be more robust than consumer products (cars); and the fact that chargers are generally connected to medium-voltage distribution grids (15 kV) AFAIK: which means either the charger cabinet itself needs to deal with such voltages, or you need a separate transformer in front of it -- either way, adding significant costs that the cars don't have to deal with.
The takeaway here is that Tesla almost certainly has lower costs per stall than ultra-fast CCS chargers -- but probably still more or less in the same ballpark. And as I said, the cost of the charger hardware itself is only a part of the cost of a charging station. A couple hundred thousand dollars is likely a realistic estimate for a small Supercharger site. (Which aligns with figures I have seen mentioned for fast-charging stations elsewhere.)
@antrik: Thanks for all the info. So its the cost of transformer which converts 15KV to something like 400V that costs a lot and thats why they need so many charges/station to make it economical.
DeletePerhaps they can use piped gas (methane) to generate electricity at the required voltage, but the generator could also cost a lot.
I hope a supercharging gigafactory that can produce 100.000 chargers / year will be economical. But this is too much volume for the given # of BEVs. So let it progress at the current rate. May be just the Level-2 chargers installed in every parking lot could charge the vehicles to 100% in 6-7 hours during the office hours.
Transporting gas is more expensive than transporting electricity.
DeleteAs the global EV fleet grows from maybe 1% of all vehicles currently to 100% at some point, there is still quite some room to scale for the charger hardware production. But as I said, charger hardware is only one cost factor: scaling doesn't help much with costs of the grid connection, installation, planning/permitting, maintenance...
Either way, level 2 charging is definitely going to remain the main form by far, both for reasons of costs and convenience: whether it's charging during office hours (best option for commuters, especially in places with lots of solar generation), or home charging -- including public curb-side chargers -- at night.
'As the global EV fleet grows from maybe 1% of all vehicles currently to 100% at some point...'
DeleteLOL Mars
written by Looney Tunes
Looks like I was way off: according to https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giant-supercharger-v3-confirmed/ , they are planning a station with almost 100 stalls, or maybe even more than 100, supposedly for a mere $1.3 million. Of course it's cheaper per stall at this scale; and V3 should help quite a lot -- but nevertheless, $100,000 for a small station with four stalls might not be too far off... At least with current technology. (I'm still sceptical about that figure for 2013...)
DeleteMild hybrid vehicles use only 0,5 KWh battery.
ReplyDelete0,5 MWh battery can power 1.000 vehicles.
0,5 GWh battery can power 1.000.000 vehicles.
50 GWh battery can power 100.000.000 vehicles and thats the entire fleet of all land based vehicles (road, farm, mine).
If we turn to Full hybrid vehicles that use 1,5 KWh battery, then its 3 times.
150 GWh battery is all that is required.
How about Plugin hybrid with 10 KWh battery for 50 km range.
1 TWh. This is lot, but it can convert the entire fleet of Worlds road/farm/mine vehicle (excepting trains) to plugin hybrids.
Mild hybrid have 10% extra fuel efficiency
Full hybrid have 30% extra fuel efficiency
Plugin hybrid may exceed 60% fuel efficiency and could cut oil consumption drastically.
Except most users can't be arsed to charge a PHEV every day, and thus 50 km (which BTW requires more than 10 kWh in a PHEV) is pretty much useless in most cases.
DeletePlus, any PHEVs made today will presumably be on the roads for 15 - 20 years -- which means that it's likely better to keep driving an existing combustion car for a few more years, until enough batteries are available for everyone to get a BEV instead. PHEVs aren't really helping the transition.
The problem with PHEVs is the company car stigma, private buyers do try to eek out everything they can from the electric part of their plugin hybrid.
DeleteHow to prevent PHEVs from going into company fleets? There has been discussions on it for years, in my opinion BiK plays a big role, the Netherlands is the closest to a solution.
I see a role for PHEVs in the current transiton, but a usable electric range (50 kms real world as minimum) is essential, as well as excluding company cars from any kind of fiscal advantage they might have.
Global PEV sales have crossed 11 million mark. Tesla is close to 1,5 million and we will know in next few days.
ReplyDeleteNice to see higher range Tesla Model 3/Y taking #2 & #3 positions. Only non-chinese automaker to be in top-5.
Redesigned Model S/X has 12V Lithium battery to power the lights, media, windows, vipers ...
Still the Model 3/Y uses 12V Lead battery, but it may also move to Lithium. Another vehicle to use Lithium is Ioniq (hybrid, plugin, electric). Will the automakers move away from lead for 12V battery because of it shorter life.
Surprisingly in china, still Lead batteries are used to power the low speed electric vehicles.
Sensing a nickel shortage, Tesla made a smart move of using LFP batteries in its standard range models. LFPs are thought to be heavier. But a blogger wrote that only at the cell level, its heavy, but at the pack level, the difference shrinks as its safety reduces the heavy materials in packs. Overall LFP are not onl cheaper, but also safer and durable and many chinese automakers are standardizing on LFP. Let there be competition in battery space and all materials be used to bring the cost down to the $100 / KWh threshold.
While LFP is less likely to go into thermal runaway, it can still do so -- meaning the supposed savings on safety precautions are mostly a myth, as far as I'm aware.
DeleteIn terms of durability, there also isn't much of a difference between automotive (high-density) LFP cells and automotive NMC cells. State-of-the-art NMC cells in fact should easily be able to outlive the car...
# of charging stations in US cross 40.000 mark with 100.000 + charging outlets.
ReplyDeleteL1: 1.376
L2: 81.891
L3 / DC Fast: 17.374
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states
# of gas stations has dwinded down to around 115.000. Still the mainstream media is bluffing and giving old # of 170.000. No one knows the exact count now. As BEVs accelerate, at least we can see increase in charging stations.
There are plans by condo owners to install chargers in apartment garages. The utilities are the deadwoods who do nothing to promote PEVs. Ideally they should be the one leading the charge. All this proves the conspiracy theories that oil companies control utilities as well.
A lot of utilities provide incentives for EV ownership, and/or build public chargers.
Delete@Jose Pontes: The global total for 2021-01 was 321031 and for 2021-02 is 269743. So YTD total comes to 590.774. But the YTD total posted this month shows 592.557. Thats around 1,8K diff. Can you please check.
ReplyDeleteAlso I am not able to see the previous month info in World section.
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2021/02/global-top-20-january-2021.html
The numbers for previous months always see some adjustments after publication.
DeleteHooray; Model Y sales crossed 100.000 mark in just 12 months. I still hope Tesla may break the sales between Model 3 & Y and Model S & X.
ReplyDeleteOr they may just club all models into 1 just figure.
Friends: Great news: Tesla sold 184.800 units which is a new record. Its significant considering the fact that its 110% increase over 2020-Q1 and 2,3% increase compared to 2020-Q4. Its rare for Tesla to increase over Q4 of previous year.
ReplyDeleteThis blows their cumulative sales past 1,5 million mark and its somewhere around 1,58 million.
182.780 are Model 3/Y and 2.020 are Model S/X.
This will Tesla in #1 again. Even Model-3 could be in #1.
This translates to annual rate of 739.200. Now we may have to increase global sales estimate from 4,5 million to above 5 million since chinese automakers also have record sales.
I would bet on Tesla getting to 1 million in 2021 (or close), and the global plugin market exceeding 6 millions this year...
DeleteI'm not sure where you are getting this optimism from... I think we can expect each of the three major markets to see some 50% growth this year (EU from stricter rules; US from Tesla ramping and a bunch of new medium-volume entrants; and China from organic growth) -- but anything much beyond that would be quite surprising IMHO.
Delete@antrik: March alone has over half a million units, leading to a YTD total of 1.1 million in Q1, which is the slowest of the year.
DeleteWow...
DeleteToyota sold 60.133 electrified vehicle, its 4 fold increase YoY.
ReplyDeleteFHEV: 56.694
PHEV: 4.724
FCEV: 715 (Mirai)
Honda sold 10.488 electrified vehicles, 3 fold increase out of which only 464 are PHEV (few FCEV), rest are FHEV.
Most likely the total hybrid sales should be well over 100.000 if we include all models. All this are Tesla effect. Automakers know that to counter BEVs, they have to sell hybrids to show that you dont need to plugin.
If VW is truly interested, they should bring ID3 here.
Audi reduced the price of eTron by $9.000 in USA. Are they going to suffer loss or sold at an excessive price. Answer is later, these notorious automakers are not interested in selling BEVs and so they price it high, then blame it for lack of customer interest and scrap it.
Hybrids do not sell because of the Tesla effect. On the contrary: it means people who are interested in significant savings (economical and ecological) no longer go for hybrids, since EVs are a better option.
DeleteAs usual the mainstream media bluffed that Ford MachE grabbed the sales from Model Y even though later comes under luxury class.
ReplyDeleteNow there is egg on their face as Model Y should has sold a lot while Audi has cut the price of eTron by $9.000. What is more surprising is eTron range also increased by 18 miles / 29 km.
So who lost market to MachE: eTron or Model Y.
But they dont realize the fact that MachE, eTron, Taycan, Model Y are grabbing sales from ICE vehicles.
Grabbing sales from ICE vehicles or not, the fact that the Maker still does business and attracts customers is the most fundamental metric. Later on, we will see if the Business is profitable and if the Attracted Customers are conquests or retains.
DeleteIt is the aggregate of all of it that is revealing!
If Tesla sold 75.743 vehicles in 1st 2 months and 184.800 in Q1, then its 109.057 vehicles in 3rd month. Probably the 1st month that they sold 100.000 + vehicles in a month. Of course, it will not happen every month, at least it will in every 3rd month.
ReplyDeleteOur next expectation is sales of Wuling MiniEV that will come in another 2-3 weeks.
Indian Railways converts 6.000 route km to electric traction out of total network of 64.000 route km in year 2020-21 despite battling pandemic.
ReplyDeleteWith this, 71% of the network is electrified and they will complete 100% electrification by end of 2023.
Of the 4 modes of transport, its lot easier to convert rail to electricity than the other 3 (road, water, air). So please write to the politicians in your state/country to promote railway electrification. These machines run day & night for all days and will get the ROI much faster.
For main lines, definitely. For branch lines seeing limited use, it's often more economical nowadays to use battery-electric trains instead...
Deletechina has population in east
Deleterussia has population in west
america has population in east & west
india has population everywhere, so all are main lines.
In fact, country is planning to build dedicated freight corridor, probably this is meant to grab share from road transport. This will also free up existing tracks for passenger trains.
overhead traction is very expensive with foundation, pillars, poles ...
Deletehow about 3rd rail in middle that activates only when train run above.
this tech is worked out by bombardier in canada, no idea how complicated it is.
There's always branch lines -- and a lot of them. Unless you run trains *only* between city centres...
DeleteChina PEV sales crossed 5 million mark in 2021-02 while Europe crosses 3,5 million mark in 2021-03.
ReplyDeleteGlobal is above 11 million. Lets beat the drums for higher sales.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-prefab-supercharger-images/
ReplyDeletePrefabricated supercharging stations are rolled out by Tesla in few hours. I believe this will be economical as well.
Expect supercharging stations count to skyrocket as Tesla opens their stations to other BEVs.
Even if the legacy automakers (laggards) dont open up station, people could still buy their vehicles though they dont like to sell. How many gas stations will modify to install chargers.
How come the ID.4 does come up on the model list? The ID.3 is there with 7k units YTD. And then VW is on the brand list with 27k YTD? The maths does make sense. Am I missing something?
ReplyDeleteVW has a *lot* of different models with several thousand deliveries thus far -- most of which didn't quite make it to the global to 20, but they do all add up. (ID.4, e-Golf, e-Up!, Golf PHEV, Passat PHEV; and also various China-exclusive models, that don't do much individually, but also add up to several thousands taken together.)
Delete