Friday, January 1, 2016

New models for 2016

Although technically started in 2015, it will be this year that the X will make an impact

With the Tesla Model 3 and Nissan Leaf II relegated to 2017, this years only disruptive model, the Chevrolet Bolt, will be available towards the end of the year, until then, the only significant novelties will come from China, with BYD continuing to launch new plug-ins, taking full profit of the current sales trend in China (SUV's and EV's). Volkswagen can also ride the same wave, if they decide to make the Tiguan GTE there. 

Chevrolet Bolt

This original MPV is said to have a 200 mi range, cost 38.000$  AND will be exported to selected markets.

As deliveries are only expected in the last quarter (December?) of the year, expect only a fraction (1.000 units?) of sales to delivered in 2016.


After the resounding success of the Tang, this is the second plug-in hybrid SUV coming from BYD.

The mid-size Crossover Song PHEV version will arrive in the First Quarter (March?) of the year, will cost around 44.000$ and will hit 0-100 kms/h in 4.9 seconds.

Once in cruising production level, i would say some 4.000 units will be sold, so i would guess a sales target of some 25.000 units for this year.


Next in line to appear in the BYD EV factory is the Yuan, a compact crossover set to launch in the first half of the year.

With AWD and an announced 4.9s from 0 to 100 kms/hour, this will be one mighty small SUV... 

I would guess the same production level as the Song, so the sales target will be around 17.000 units.

VW Tiguan GTE

This is a model VW has to get it right in order to ride the current trends of SUV's coupled with PHEV powertrains, 

Sharing the GTE specs with its Golf and Passat relatives, this will be the first test to see if VW is really supporting plug-ins, if it is, then it must sell in North America and China (with local production).

Sales target in Europe: 7.000 units
North America(?) - 4.000 units
China(???) - Lots of them. VW sells 250.000 Tiguans per year in China...

Other plug-in models will land this year, with the vast majority of them being of the PHEV variety:

BMW 330e

BMW 530e

BMW 740e

Cadillac CT6 PHEV

Chrysler Minivan PHEV

Hyundai Ioniq

Kia Optima PHEV

Mercedes E500e

New Smart Fortwo ED / Forfour ED

Volvo S90 T8 PHEV

A mention to two models that started their career in 2015, but will gain volume only this year:

Chevrolet Volt II - I would say that it will reach some 4.000 units/ month, so a sales target of 48.000 units shouldn't go far from reality;

Tesla Model X - Production ramp up will be gradual, so i would guess that the final deliveries target for the Crossover will be around 25k to 30k units.

- Renault-Nissan sales prediction: 95.000 units. Miss: Around 75k.

- Mitsubishi sales prediction: 50.000. Hit: Around 46k.

- Tesla sales prediction: 70 to 50.000. Hit, but the 50.000 units will be almost all Model S.

- Chevrolet sales prediction: 35.000. Big Miss, there were little more than 20k units sold. Reason: Limited availability of the Second Gen Volt.

- Ford sales prediction: 23.000. Hit. Around 21k.

- Toyota sales prediction: 13.000. Big Miss: 6.500 units, the Prius Plug-In performed even worse than expected.

- BYD sales prediction: 35.000. Big Miss: Around 60.000 units, almost double!

- BMW sales prediction: 30.000. Hit: Around 33.000 units, although the X5 plug-in won't reach the predicted 5.000 sales.

- Geely Group (Kandi + Volvo) sales prediction: 30.000. Hit: Around 33.000 units, although the XC90 plug-in won't reache the predicted 5.000 sales.

- Volkswagen sales prediction: 25.000. Miss: Around 37.000 units, both the Golf GTE and e-Golf sales were underestimated.

- Daimler Group (Mercedes + Smart) sales prediction: 20.000. Miss: 15.000 units. Mercedes sales were on target (11k), but Smart was a big miss, the 4k sold are half of what was expected (8k).


  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

  2. Hyundai Ioniq will go on sale as pure ev in 2016.

  3. Most of LG Chem customers will recieve battery upgrade during 2016 (second gen Volt chemistry). This means longer range Ford Fusion/C-Max Energi, Focus Electric, Renault Zoe etc.
    The most important i think is Renault ZOE upgrade since it's second best selling electric car in Europe (and continues its growth).

    1. 300 kms range for the Zoe would be really nice.

  4. I wonder whether an electric tractor is an EV as per this site. In Ukraine they sold "over" 10 pieces last year.