Wednesday, August 15, 2018

USA July 2018

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 parking lots
Let the flood begin…

The Tesla Model 3 Flood

A record-shattering 29,000 plug-in units were registered last month in the USA, a 90% increase YoY, leading to a best ever PEV Share of 2.2%, with the 2018 count crossing over 151,000 units, and the 2018 PEV share climbing to over 1.5%, a new record. 

These results were mostly thanks to Tesla opening the dam on the Model 3 deliveries, that hit a record 14,250 units, the first time ANY plug-in hits a five digit monthly result in this market. 

Looking elsewhere, there wasn't much to talk about, with only three position changes in the Top 20, with the Chevy Volt surpassing its all-electric sibling Bolt, that was worryingly down 40% YoY. Are GM's BEV model sales being terminated by the Tesla Model 3?

If so, it isn't the only one, as the Nissan Leaf sales are down 10% YoY, despite a fresh new model, while the BMW i3 sales are down 23%, so there seems to be a Model 3 vacuum cleaner effect on sales of other BEV models on the market, making a sort of sales black hole, where fellow BEVs and midsize ICE cars get sucked into... 

Talking of the other changes, the BMW 530e climbed to #10, at the expense of its i3 sibling, while the Mercedes C350e joined the Top 20, in…#20.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (38%, up 3%) keeps gobbling up share (Will it reach 50% this year?), while Chevrolet (12%) hangs on to Second Place, with Toyota (11%) close to the GM brand, while BMW is holding steady in Fourth, with 9% share.

Source: Inside EVs

Tesla Model 3 & Others

Tesla Model 3 
Mercedes C-Class    
BMW 3-Series
Infiniti Q50
Audi A4

Looking at the midsize car category, the July record result catapulted the Tesla Model 3 for the YTD leadership, being the first time a plug-in becomes the yearly Best Seller in its overall category.

It was also the third time in a row that the Tesla sedan was the category Best Selling nameplate, which begs the question - "Will anyone be able to beat the Model 3?". 

Also important to realize, is the fact that, with the exception of the Audi A4, all other Model 3 competitors are witnessing YoY drops, reinforcing the idea that the Tesla nameplate is stealing sales from the class best sellers.

Another question is if the Model 3 can reach the top places in the mainstream midsize car class,  with the exceptional 14,250 deliveries of July, the Tesla midsizer was Fourth last month, behind the Toyota Camry (26,300), Honda Accord (24,900) and Nissan Altima (16,000), and YTD it jumped to #7, and could surpass in the coming months the #5 Kia Optima and #6 Hyundai Sonata.

But to go head to head against the Top 3, the Tesla Model 3 needs the SR version production to be in full swing, so let's wait for next year to see how high the BEV poster-child can go.


  1. WOW, Tesla Model 3 is killing this market, the "others" must be getting very worried.

    1. I have a different opinion. The "others" are down for now, but the true consequences of the Model 3 flood, will be a far better "advertising" of Ev advantages and potentialities among all type of cars owners (every where in world, even in places where Tesla is not (yet)there officially), not only tech geeks, environment advocates or other early adopters. Which, will have for result to widened the EV market more rapidly than Tesla can ramp up production (even with the Y), so more opportunities will be create to the "others", for the sake of all of us and our children future.

  2. I think, they'll hit 18K in August and 25K in September with TM3)

    The main question for me - will Tesla find enough buyers to deliver this kind of numbers through Q4 only in US and without short range version?

    1. 16K in August and 22K in September, if we trust completely in Bloomberg model and assume exactly 2 week delivery time:)

      Yep. Q4 result would be more interesting and less predictable - both in sales and financial performance, as Tesla likely needs(?) to build additional assembly line for base model 3...

  3. I think the most interesting thing to watch is going to be the Prius family (and not just the Prime variant). The Prius represents ~10% of Toyota's annual revenue. Toyota's margins are slim enough that if they lose 10% of their revenue without substantial cutbacks in expenses, they'll report a loss for the year.

    I expect the Model Y is going to take a big chunk out of Rav4 sales starting in 3-4 years. Between the two, I can see Toyota going bankrupt by 2025 (Toyota doesn't have a big cushion of cash - they can't go many years with losses before being bankrupt. It looks a lot like GM and Chrysler before they had to declare bankruptcy.)

    1. If Toyota relied only in North America, i would agree.

      Thing is, although important, the NA markets are only two pieces of a large puzzle of markets, and the impact of Tesla won't be felt in many of them (India, Brazil, etc)