World Top 10 March 2016

Tesla's Ace: After a memorable March sales month, nothing like showing the Next Big Thing

Models - Tesla Model S Goes (Almost) Ludicrous

The global EV market continues to grow at rapid pace, with the 58.000 units delivered in March representing a 37% growth YoY, with last month being the second best selling month ever, only behind the 86k of last December.

In the models ranking, the leader Nissan Leaf had its best month in a year, delivering 6.564 units, but that wasn't enough to win the Best Seller Of The Moth award, because the Tesla Model S made its usual March party trick and delivered 7.777 units, only slightly worse than the all-time record of 8.082 units set last December...

With this impressive performance, the Model S climbed one position to Second Place, displacing the BYD Tang, which slipped not one, but two positions, because the Mitsu Outlander PHEV did a year best by registering 4.532 units, just enough to displace the chinese SUV to Fourth and recover the Best Selling PHEV title. 

Below these heavy weights, a lot has also happened, with the Renault Zoe climbing one position to #5, the Chevrolet Volt slowly coming back to its old form, rising one position to #7, while in #10 we have something of an unexpected arrival, with the six year old (An eternity in the EV World) BYD e6 reaching the bottom place in the Top 10, the last time that happened it was way back in 2012, when Tesla was getting ready to put the Model S on the streets, in fact BYD's veteran MPV/wagon is having its best production year ever, which says a lot on the current state of the Chinese EV market.

Pl	WORLD	March	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	6.564	16.282	12	2
2	Tesla Model S	7.777	12.420	9	1
3	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	4.532	9.279	7	3
4 5 6	BYD Tang Renault Zoe BAIC E-Series EV	3.111 2.783 2.361	9.221 5.901 5.583	7 4 4	8 7 11
7	Chevrolet Volt	2.116	4.439	3	9
8	JAC i EV	1.802	4.410	3	16
9	BMW i3	1.596	3.998	3	5
10	BYD e6	2.016	3.807	3	22
	TOTAL	57.998	132.343

Manufacturers -  Tesla and BYD Charge

If the leader Nissan had its best result in a year, with 6.902 units, Tesla did even better, with a personal best of 9.636 units delivered, staying only behind the 10k all-time record achieved by BYD last December, speaking of the chinese automaker, they have stepped up deliveries to over 7.000 units, putting pressure on the leader Nissan, only 330 units ahead. 

Tesla profited from last month the excellent performance to surpass Mitsubishi and reach the last place of the podium, while the race for the Fifth position continues rather interesting, with Volkswagen trying to reach the #5 BMW, but having to look out with the #7 Renault, dangerously close  to it. 

Pl	WORLD	March	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan	6.902	17.113	13	4
2	BYD	7.215	16.783	13	1
3	Tesla	9.636	14.820	11	2
4	Mitsubishi	4.883	10.607	8	3
5 6 7	BMW Volkswagen Renault	3.405 3.396 3.376	8.524 7.947 7.654	6 6 6	6 5 8
8	BAIC	2.426	5.848	4	12
9	Chevrolet	2.373	5.062	4	11
10	Ford	1.984	4.536	3	10

Segment Leaders

A / City Car - JMC E100 (2.409 units), chinese brands kingdom, remaining positions in the podium also by chinese models: Zotye Cloud EV and Chery eQ.

B / Subcompact - Renault Zoe (5.901 units), with BAIC E-Series EV and BMW i3 as close competitors;

C / Compact - Nissan Leaf (16.282 units), the Volt is too far away to pose a threat;

D / Midsize - Ford Fusion Energi (2.772), leader to be dethroned by the VW Passat GTE (1.5k) ?

E+F / Fullsize - Tesla Model S (12.420 units), hands down leader. Second Best: Mercedes S500e, 219 units...

Sports car / Convertible - BMW i8 (724 units), without real competition;

SUV - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (9.279 units), a close race with the BYD Tang;

MPV / Minivan - BYD e6 (3.807 units), shaming the Ford C-Max Energy (1.5k);

LCV / Van - Renault Kangoo ZE (954 units), really close race with the Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia;

Pick up - Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck (36 units), why does no one picks up on this?

Markets Roundup - March 2016

One of the questions frequently asked regarding EV's is "Where is the tipping point?", when do sales reach a point of no return and numbers start to grow like a snowball?

I believe that it is not one, but several increasingly important tipping points, the first one is the 0.1-0.2% market share barrier, which is more psychological than anything else, leaving enthusiasts happy for starting to watch another EV every other week. Or month.

Then, the 1% EV Share. You can see EV's fairly regularly, becoming a relatively common thing in some communities, and even someone (Probably new tech-related) you know has one or is thinking in getting one.

Now, 3%. The innovators have embraced the new technology and EV's are ready to take on the more forward-thinking-mainstream, those that like new stuff, but only if it makes sense in their lives and isn't heavy on the wallet.

Finally, somewhere 6 to 10% share, the forward-thinking majority accepts the new technology and it becomes something of a new trend, where people buy them because it's the way of the future and, like in so many cases in the past, the average consumer is drawn to the new technology, even if they don't understand it really well, simply because don't want to look outdated in among their peers. 

Currently, the only market reaching this last, and most important tipping point, is Norway.

Market Share Tiers

To know how the remaining markets are at this point, i have divided them in three Tiers, 1, 2 and 3, where the first is for markets around 3%, the second is for the 1% and the last for the smallest 0.1-0.2%

Tier 1

Hong Kong (5%), Iceland (3%), Sweden (2.6%), Netherlands (2.2%) and Switzerland (2%). 

The Netherlands and Hong Kong are the most likely to follow Norway and reach the last tipping point, but Switzerland is the most important market to study, because it got here without  significant incentive aids.

Tier 2

France (1.8%), Belgium (1.7%), Austria (1.6%), UK (1.2%), Finland (1.2%), China (0.9%), Portugal (0.8%), Germany (0.7%), Japan (0.7), USA (0.7) and Canada (0.7%).

France, Belgium and Austria are all growing fast, but the really interesting stories in this Tier are China, by the sheer volumes, and also Germany, which in the past didn't had significant incentives for EV's, but will have them in May now, it will interesting to follow the evolution of this market in the following months, as incentives kick in. I believe 1% will be a given, but will 3% by year end be too much to ask? EV Sales will follow this closely.

Tier 3

Ireland (0.4%), Estonia (0.4%), Denmark (0.3%), Spain (0.3%), Italy (0.2%), Slovenia (0.2%), New Zealand (0.2%) and Czech Republic (0,1%).

This last tier has two special cases, Estonia and Denmark had in the past much higher market shares (2.4% for the first, 2.3% for the second), but because fiscal incentives were withdrawn, they have seen their share dwindle, which brings attention to the fact that the EV market is still very incentive-sensitive, something that it is expected to be less so, when the next generation of EV's (Chevrolet Bolt, Nissan Leaf II, Tesla Model 3...) arrive.




Off-topic: Two notes on markets not usually present in the spotlight:

Only this year, the Ukraine has registered 700 EV's, increasing the total EV fleet there to around 1.500 units;

Little Andorra at the moment has a stock of 25 EV's, but the goal is to reach 500 in 2019, with generous incentives being given for that purpose: 9.000€ grants, free use of bus lanes, personalized number plates, free annual road tax, free tolls and a free wallbox per new car bought. Did Andorra just copied Norway's EV incentives book? No matter, EV Sales wishes them all the best!

EV Business Case - Tesla and BYD

Tesla and BYD - Forever Production Constrained?

I - Tesla

A lot has been said about Tesla, the american brand in the recent past has helped to change people's minds over electric cars, from slow-mobiles, a bit dorkey & nerdy, to become the ultimate cool, a bit like "Tesla might not be the most popular kid in the Automotive High school, but it is coolest".

Most recently it was in the mainstream media with its Model 3 and the disruptive force it promises to be (Could it be the first EV to beat the c*** out of mainstream ICE cars?), but with it came a Million Dollar Question: "Can Tesla handle it?"

There weren't that many launches from Tesla to evaluate future behaviors, but looking at the Model S (The Roadster doesn't count here, as it was at whole different scale and the Model X is still reaching cruise speed), the Model S went like this:   

2012 - 2.700 units, available only in North America;

2013 - 22.200 units, expanded to Europe (2nd Semester);

2014 - 31.200 units, expanded to China and RHD markets (2nd Semester);

2015 - 50.400 units.

We can see a limited number of units in the initial year, with the numbers jumping in the first full production year to 22.200 units, then increasing 40% in the second full year and 60% into the third year, with the market expansion taking place over the years, with the peculiar fact that production seems to be always behind demand levels...Something made on purpose?

In the Model 3, Tesla will have the advantage of having already an oiled production and delivery system, with numbers probably reaching 150k units Model S/X in 2017, but by that time the reservations will be so huge  (600k? 700k?), that the ramp up has to be steep in order to satisfy such high level of demand, so my take on the Model 3 Production levels are:

2017 - 7.500 units, available only in North America;

2018 - 100.000 units, expanding to Europe (2nd Semester);

2019 - 250.000 units, expanding to China (New factory?) and RHD markets (2nd Semester);

2020 - 500.000 units.

Assuming that only half of the reservations transform into actual deliveries (I think it will be higher than that), someone that makes a reservation today, April 29th, will receive its Model 3 around...The second semester of 2019. It will be a looong wait...

II - BYD

Something of a Unsung Hero in the EV Scene, the progression of the chinese brand has been nothing short of spectacular in the last years:

2013 - 2.900 units;

2014 - 18.400 units;

2015 - 61.700 units.

And the sales targets set for the next years are also worthy of awe: 

2016: 150.000 units;

2017: 300.000 units;

2018: 600.000 units.

As we can see, far more aggressive targets than Tesla, which must be at around 300k in 2018...

One would think that these growth rates would be impossible to achieve only with the chinese market and BYD would finally start to export in significant numbers, but in the end, i believe the EV market in China will grow so fast that it will absorb all of the BYD plug-in production and frustrate their own export plans, let's look at the last numbers of the chinese EV Market: 

2013 - 14.000 units;

2014 - 60.000 units;

2015 - 190.000 units.

Extraordinary growth rates, right? Now considering that the market only doubles in the next few years...

2016 - 400.000 (Projected);.

2017 - 800.000 (Projected);

2018 - 1.600.000 (Projected).

Considering that BYD has had historically at least 30% of the Chinese EV market all to itself, it won't be difficult for the chinese brand to see its production almost all absorbed by its domestic market, leaving little for export plans.

That is unless BYD decides to go all Tesla and make their customers wait several months for their car...

Europe March 2016

Outlander PHEV: Summer or Winter time, it's always Europe's favorite Plug-in

Outlander PHEV Is Back 

The European EV market had almost 24.000 registrations in March, it's second best result ever, representing a 27% increase over March 2015, with the 48.500 units registered so far this year pointing that 2016 will breach the 200.000 barrier, by how much it will depend a lot on how the German EV market will respond to the newly approved incentives scheme...Something that will be discussed in another article, to be published soon.

Looking at the monthly models ranking, we can see that the Best Selling Plug-in 2015, the Outlander PHEV, return to the leadership, with 3.661 units, followed none other than other than by three all-electric vehicles, with the 30 kW rejuvenated Nissan Leaf (3.542 units, new personal best), surpassing the Renault Zoe (2.768 units) and winning the BEV monthly leadership for the first time in the last six months. To reach such numbers, Nissan's Sunderland factory must have prioritized the all-electric hatch over the Qashqai ICE Crossover...

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	3.661
2	Nissan Leaf	3.542
3	Renault Zoe	2.768
4	Tesla Model S	2.189
5	Volkswagen Golf GTE	1.574

Looking at the YTD ranking, complete reshuffle in the top positions, after two months recovering from December Sales Rush, the Mitsu Outlander PHEV is back at the highest place in the ranking, the Nissan Leaf also surpassed the previous leader Renault Zoe in the 2016 chart, relegating the french all-electric car to #3, while the Tesla Model S jumped five positions to Fourth, with the VW Golf GTE also climbing to #5, surpassing its BEV twin in the ranking e-Golf, down four positions to #9. 

Other points of interest are the races in the D-Segment/Midsize class, where the VW Passat GTE surpassed previous leader Mercedes C350e and reached the #11 position, while in the MPV class the leader Mercedes B250e now has a tough cookie to deal with, with the BMW 225xe Active Tourer now reaching #20 and setting new sales records every month, as it spreads through Europe, it will be difficult for the Three-pointed Star product to resist it in the long run, especially considering that sooner or later, the BMW product will be reinforced by the 7-seat version, something lacking in the B-Class...

Looking at the brands ranking, the trophy bearer, Volkswagen (15%, down 1%) has managed to hold on Renault (Also 15% share) in Second Place, but the 216 units difference is too small for the german brand to rest on the laurels. In Third we now have Nissan, with 14% (Up 2%), looking to discuss the leadership with the top two, something that the #4 Mitsubishi (13%, up 3%) and #5 BMW (12%) could also have a word to say. So, five automakers looking for the leadership, interesting times, aren't they?

Pl	Europe	March	2016	%	'15Pl
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	3.661	6.825	13	1
2	Nissan Leaf	3.539	5.967	12	5
3	Renault Zoe	2.768	5.838	12	2
4	Tesla Model S	2.189	3.390	6	4
5	Volkswagen Golf GTE	1.574	3.055	6	3
6	BMW i3	1.035	2.633	5	6
7	Volvo XC90 T8	1.150	2.503	5	18
8	Audi A3 e-Tron	1.002	2.272	5	7
9 10	Volkswagen e-Golf BMW X5 40e	728 745	2.217 1.576	5 3	4 22
11 12	Volkswagen Passat GTE Mercedes C350e	823 577	1.468 1.260	3 3	12 11
13	Renault Kangoo ZE	376	946	2	13
14	Volvo V60 Plug-In	331	902	2	9
15	Kia Soul EV	376	869	2	10
16 17 18 19 20	Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Mercedes B250e Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Volkswagen e-Up! BMW 225xe Active Tourer	262 304 283 182 287	743 742 669 607 577	2 2 1 1 1	14 17 15 16 31
	TOTAL	23.901	48.522

South Africa March 2016

BMW Edition

The South African EV Market is into its second full year, with only three models available, the Nissan Leaf and the BMW i offerings, with others said to arrive in the near future, like Tesla.

35 units were sold in March, 25 of them being BMW i3´s, in total about 80 EV's were registered, double the numbers of last year.

The BMW i8 and Nissan Leaf make up for the rest of the (small) pack.
I

Pl	South Africa	March	YTD	%	Pl. '15
1	BMW i3	25	55	69	1
2	BMW i8	5	15	19	2
3	Nissan Leaf	5	10	12	3
	TOTAL	35	80	100

Source: NAAMSA

Germany March 2016

Zoe Holds On To #1

Sales were up a timid 9% YoY, to 2.418 units, with the EV Share steady at 0.74%, which could be explained by the fact that many consumers are waiting for the incentives policy to be finally changed, maybe then the market share finally can reach the symbolic 1% barrier.

Looking at the Monthly models ranking, in March we had an all-electric podium, with three BEV's in the highest places of the ranking, with the particular fact that the Tesla Model S has reached a new sales record in Germany, with 267 units, enough to beat the BMW 6-Series (All variants included) by 40 units, with the Mercedes CLS (344 units) and Audi A7 (337) not very far in the Sports-Sedan-Thingy race, if the american car should beat them in their home soil, it should signal it as (another) Alarm call to German Premium brands that Tesla is eating their cake...  

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Nissan Leaf	293
2	Tesla Model S	267
3	Renault Zoe	266
4	BMW i3 *	211
5	Audi A3 e-Tron	199

Looking at the YTD ranking, if the Renault Zoe managed to keep the leadership (No small feat in this EV market), the Nissan Leaf took the Second Place from the hands of the VW Golf GTE, which dropped to Fourth.

The Tesla Model S jumped four positions to #6, while the VW Passat GTE climbed one position to #8 and the Volvo XC90 PHEV climbed two positions to #10.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen continues in the Top Spot, with 19% share (Down 1%), followed by BMW (15%, down 1%) and in Third we now have Renault (12%), which managed to surpass Audi (11%), now relegated to Fourth.

Pl	Germany	March	YTD	%	'15 Pl
1 2	Renault Zoe Nissan Leaf	266 293	601 533	10 9	6 10
3	BMW i3 *	211	531	9	2
4	Audi A3 e-Tron	199	487	8	5
4	Volkswagen Golf GTE	163	487	8	4
6	Tesla Model S	267	396	7	7
7	Misubishi Outlander PHEV	185	378	6	3
8	Volkswagen Passat GTE	169	315	5	9
9 10 11	Mercedes C350e   e) Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV Audi Q7 e-Tron	48 88 7	244 191 173	4 3 3	13 28 24
12	Volkswagen e-Golf	55	168	3	8
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 38 38 38 38	Volkswagen e-Up! BMW 225xe Active Tourer Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Mercedes GLE500e Kia Soul EV BMW X5 40e PHEV Mercedes B250e BMW 330e BMW i8 Renault Twizy Mercedes S500e   e) Volvo V60 Plug-In Renault Kangoo ZE e) Porsche Panamera Plug-In Smart Fortwo ED Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Peugeot iOn Citroen C-Zero Toyota Prius Plug-In Citroen Berlingo EV e) Ford C-Max Energi Porsche 918 Mitsubishi I-Miev Opel Ampera Peugeot Partner EV Audi R8 e-Tron Tesla Model X Volkswagen XL1 Ford Focus Electric	44 56 33 25 56 25 28 34 36 28 20 4 15 9 6 13 10 5 8 5 4 1 1 1 1	141 140 114 112 108 94 78 77 71 68 60 51 45 44 40 33 21 20 17 15 12 8 6 5 5 1 1 1 1	2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	12 20 17 29 1 22 14 32 16 15 19 18 N/A 23 11 25 36 36 26 33 N/A 30 27 31 33 38 N/A 40 33
	TOTAL	2.418	5.893	100

* - 57 Bev + 154 Rex

e) Estimate

Source: kba.de

Belgium March 2016

Record Edition

March was another record month, with 936 EV's registered allowed to double sales YoY, with the 2016 EV Share now placed at a never seen before 1.73%, being this one of the fastest growing markets right now.

In March, the Volvo XC90 T8 continued to lead the way, followed by the Tesla Model S and BMW X5 PHEV.

Looking at the YTD ranking, there aren't significant changes in the leading positions, with the Mercedes C350e climbing one position to #6, while the Renault Zoe is now #10, up two positions regarding February.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo is leading (26%), followed by BMW (20%, up 1%), and Porsche in Third, with 12%.

As curiosity, there was an additional Toyota Mirai registered last month, elevating the Fuel Cell tally to five units this year, four Mirai's and one Hyundai ix35 FCEV.

Pl	Belgium	March	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV	167	595	26	13
2	BMW X5 40e PHEV	111	280	12	15
3 4	Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Tesla Model S	92 149	248 238	11 10	2 1
5	Nissan Leaf	99	170	7	8
6	Mercedes C350e	42	104	4	16
7	BMW i3 *	34	101	4	3
8	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	23	65	3	6
9	Mercedes GLE500e	24	63	3	27
10	Renault Zoe	27	51	2	18
11	Audi A3 e-Tron	19	43	2	7
12 12 14	BMW i8 Volkswagen Golf GTE BMW 330e	9 12 34	36 36 35	2 2 2	9 5 N/A
15 16 17 17	Mercedes B250e Mercedes S500e BMW 225xe Active Tourer Porsche Panamera Plug-In	4 11 22 10	34 28 25 25	1 1 1 1	11 14 N/A 10
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 28 30 31 31 33	Volkswagen Passat GTE Volvo V60 Plug-In Renault Kangoo ZE Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia ** Renault Twizy Citroen C-Zero Kia Soul EV Volkswagen e-Golf Peugeot iOn Smart Fortwo ED Toyota Prius Plug-In Volkswagen e-Up! Peugeot Partner EV Opel Ampera Citroen Berlingo EV	13 4 2 5 6 2 5 4 1 4 1	24 20 19 16 14 13 12 10 7 5 5 3 2 2 1	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	33 4 N/A 21 15 24 23 17 20 19 25 21 N/A 28 N/A
	TOTAL	936	2.330	100

Source: febiac.be

* - 18 Bev + 16 Rex

** - 2 Pass + 3 LCV

Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids

Pl	Model	Mar. 2016
1	Toyota Auris Hybrid	351
2	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	209
3	Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV	167
4	Tesla Model S	149
4	BMW X5 40e PHEV	111

If we combine March regular hybrid sales with plug-ins, the Toyota Auris Hybrid stayed In #1, followed by the Yaris Hybrid relative, while the rest of the ranking was all Plug-in. 

T