World Top 10 October 2016

BAIC EU260,  #1 in October and soon to join the Top 10

Models - Chinese Take Over

The global EV market has slowed down last month, with almost 64.000 units delivered, down 13.000 units regarding September, but it was still the Fourth best month ever, representing a 23% growth YoY, with YTD sales now at 580k, we are headed for a total sales number between 750-800.000 units.

In the models ranking, the big news were the high number of models outside the Top 10 to shine, starting with the BAIC EU260, Best Seller in October with 4.580 units, with the #3 going to another Chinese model, the BYD e6, with the 6-year-old veteran achieving a new personal best of 3.118 units, while four(!) other Chinese models (#6 BAIC E-Series EV, #8 Zhidou D1 EV, #9 Chery eQ, #10 BYD Qin EV300), joined the October Top 10, making six models from that country in the monthly Top 10. Will this become "The new normal"? 

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Tesla Model S has the Nissan Leaf within shooting range, so the last-month-of-the-quarter-peak should pull it to another Models title, like it did last year.

The 33-kWh-version-kick helped the BMW i3 to climb one position to #6, while the BAIC E-Series EV jumped two places to #8, but with the Renault Zoe and Tesla Model X expected to have strong year end performances and the BAIC EU260 and BYD e6 looking for a Top 10 seat, expect a lot of changes in the last three positions until the last minute of 2016.

Pl	WORLD	Oct.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	3.318	43.262	7	2
2	Tesla Model S	2.785	40.717	7	1
3	BYD Tang	1.529	28.317	5	8
4 5 6	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Chevrolet Volt BMW i3	1.948 2.540 2.374	22.646 21.472 19.998	4 4 3	3 9 5
7	BYD Qin	1.538	19.929	3	4
8	BAIC E-Series EV	2.395	17.852	3	11
9	Renault Zoe	1.503	17.482	3	7
10	Tesla Model X	1.144	16.952	3	68
	TOTAL	63.731	580.584

Manufacturers -  BMW and the Chinese

Looking at October Best Selling manufacturers, three of the Top Four brands came from China (#1 BYD, #2 BAIC, #4 Zotye), with BMW being the only foreigner, in Third.

If BYD continues stuck at 10.000-something deliveries for the fifth consecutive month (Production constraints?), Beijing Auto (BAIC), continues to surprise and deliver record numbers, with 7.279 units last month, will they be able to reach 10.000 units in December?

As for the Bavarian automaker, the benefits from a strong (And extensive) lineup allowed it to surpass Nissan and reach a best ever Third Place, thus becoming the Best Selling established OEM, a notable feat for a car maker that ended 2015 in Sixth... 

With Chevrolet finally selling at decent levels, the American brand seems to have the Eighth Place secured, as its newest baby, the Bolt, arrives just in time to pull sales up and neutralize the upcoming 40 kWh Renault Zoe deliveries uptick.

Ford has been able to keep its Tenth Place afloat, but with Zotye (3.964 units in October, Year best), now only 292 units behind, the American maker needs to speed up pace if it wants to keep its cherished #10.   

Pl	WORLD	Oct.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	BYD	10.395	84.291	15	1
2	Tesla	3.929	57.669	10	2
3	BMW	5.952	47.282	8	6
4	Nissan	3.582	46.651	8	4
5 6 7	BAIC Volkswagen Mitsubishi	7.279 3.285 2.239	36.923 29.139 26.511	6 5 5	12 5 3
8	Chevrolet	2.800	24.534	4	11
9	Renault	2.323	23.780	4	8
10	Ford	2.042	20.156	3	10

Markets Roundup October 2016

Let's look at how EV Sales stand, if we divide the world by continental blocks:

North America - 128.000 units in 2016, 550.000 stock.

The three markets combined (USA, Canada and Mexico) picture is almost the same as the US EV market, given the size of this last one, but there are small nuances, the EV market share drops slightly to 0.8%, while the difference between the first two (Tesla Model S and Chevrolet Volt) is smaller, due to the Canadian love for the plug-in hybrid Chevy.

2016 Ranking:

Tesla Model S - 22k
Chevrolet Volt - 21k
Tesla Model X - 14k


Europe - 170.000 units in 2016, 586.000 stock

It has a dedicated section, here.


Asia (Excluding China) - 27.000 units in 2016, 165.000 stock

Historically, the main market has been is Japan by a wide margin, but the South Korean EV market has been growing, while Japan has been down to 2011 levels, so it's no wonder that a Hyundai shows up in Third Place.

2016 Ranking:

Nissan Leaf - 14k
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV - 5k
Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 3k


China - 258.000 units in 2016, 558.000 stock

Considering the unique biodiversity regarding plug-in cars, this market is best considered as a different entity, which has a dedicated section, here.


Oceania - 2.000 units in 2016, 6.000 stock

Basically Australia and New Zealand combined, numbers are highly influenced by those of the Australian market, where plug-in sales are slow, with the market share at a low 0.15%, but in New Zealand the picture is rosier, it has a respectable 0.3% market share and has been growing steadily over the years. 

Ranking:

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV - 900 units;

Tesla Model S - 600 units;

BMW i3 - 200 units.

Central and South America - 300 units in 2016, 1.000 stock

A market still in its infancy, the early adopter Costa Rica was surpassed by Colombia, which is responsible for half the sales this year, while everyone is waiting for Brazil for its "Switch on" moment and start to deliver sales in significant numbers. Regarding models, the "big" players in this area are Renault, the major seller, with BYD a distant Second, while the Renault Twizy is the Best Selling model, with some 120 units sold in 2016.

Africa - 200 units in 2016, 600 stock

The only markets with available data are South Africa and Morocco, with the first owning 90% of sales, so it is with no surprise that the ranking reflects that, with the BMW i3 being the best seller, with over 100 units.

Japan October 2016

The looks of the 2nd Gen Prius PHEV are starting to grow on me...
In a Nerdy-Manga-style sort of way.

Numb Edition

The Japanese EV was down 37% YoY in October, with some 1.100 units, placing the YTD numbers at around 19.000 units, three thousand units down on last year count in the same period, with the EV Share down to 0,46%. With numbers below last year volumes, one has to go back five years to see such low numbers, which doesn't come as a surprise, considering how the two local heavy-weights are behaving.

The 30kWh-kick effect has waned and the Nissan Leaf, the main driving force of the market, responsible for 66% of all plug-ins registered this year, has seen its sales slow down significantly, if we compare this performance with October 2014, 2013 and 2012 (October 2015 was an uncharacteristic month because buyers were waiting for the 30 kWh version), all those months had four-digit numbers to present, while this year only 513 units were sold, meaning a sales drop of over 50%, so unless Nissan throws something new to the table (40kWh version...), sales will continue to drop and the upcoming Second Generation Toyota Prius PHEV will have the 2017 Best Seller trophy served on a silver platter.

To worsen the numb feeling on the Japanese EV market, the emissions scandal is continuing to hurt Mitsubishi and its Outlander PHEV sales, with registrations down 59%(!) to 486 units in October, while YTD sales are down 52%(!), this being by far the worst selling year of the Japanese plug-in SUV in its home ground.

In short, while in a normal year the front two would be selling over 1.000 units each in October, this year they can't even reach that number together!

The remaining models in the ranking have comparatively small numbers, with the front two models gobbling 88% of the market, but not all is lost, the Prius Prime is expected to arrive soon and if Toyota managed to win the 2012 Best Seller title with a "light range" (Putting it in mild terms) Prius PHEV, then this decent-range, competitively priced second generation should improve significantly on the result achieved that year (12.300 units), which given the current state of affairs, should be more than enough to beat the current front runners and spike sales of this dormant market.

Pl	Japan	October	2016	%	Pl '15
1	Nissan Leaf	513	12.645	66	2
2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	486	4.648	24	1
3	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia e)	50	832	4	7
4	BMW i3 e)	45	195	1	4
5	Toyota Prius Plug-In		183	1	3
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Tesla Model S e) Mitsubishi I-Miev Mit. Minicab Miev Truck BMW i8 e) Smart Fortwo ED BMW 330e e) Audi A3 e-Tron e)	2 20 11 8	179 173 149 62 25 22 5 5	1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0	5 6 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A
	TOTAL	1.135	19.123	100

e) Estimate

Belgium October 2016

Podium bearers

SUV-Fest Edition

October was a near-record month in Belgium, with 926 units, with the hot sales trend continuing for yet another month, with the EV Share up once again to a record 1.86%, a stark departure from the 0.7% of last year.

As usual, SUV's are the Trend du Jour, with 5 out of the top 6 places in October belonging to such vehicles: The BMW X5 PHEV (121 units) won another Monthly Best-Seller trophy, its fourth in a row, followed by the arch rival Volvo XC90 T8 (103 units) and the rising star Audi Q7 e-Tron (82, personal best), while in #4 we have the fleet-friendly BMW 330e, with 71 units. In #5 we have the Porsche Cayenne Plug-in (67 units), followed by the Mercedes GLC350e (64, pb), another model that seems destined for success in this market.

Next to all these shiny, trendy SUV's, the BMW sedan almost looks pedestrian...

Looking at the YTD ranking, the BMW 225xe Act. Tourer climbed to #5, switching positions with the Nissan Leaf, while the Mercedes GLE500e (53 units, pb) rose to #9, dropping its C350e sibling to #10. Once again, SUV's are on the rise...

...And underlining the never-ending appetite for SUV's, the Audi Q7 e-Tron was up to #13, while the Mercedes GLC350e jumped to #15.

Another model with a great start is the BMW 740e, which scored 39 units in October, rising to #19 after just three months on the market. The Bimmer should prove popular near a certain Berlaymont building...

In the manufacturers ranking, leader BMW (31%, up 1%) continues to increase share, while Volvo (20%, down 1%) is Second. There is an interesting race for Third Place, with Porsche (10%), Mercedes (10%) and Tesla (8%) all running for the last place of the podium.

Looking at the BEV/PHEV breakdown, Belgium is starting to look more and more like the Netherlands, with plug-in hybrids increasing their share to 75%, up 22%(!) regarding last year. 

Pl	Belgium	Oct.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1	Volvo XC90 T8	103	1.399	17	13
2	BMW X5 40e	121	1.120	14	15
3 4	Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Tesla Model S	67 23	724 554	9 7	2 1
5	BMW 225xe Active Tourer	46	419	5	N/A
6	Nissan Leaf	22	415	5	8
7	BMW 330e	71	396	5	N/A
8	BMW i3	52	336	4	3
9	Mercedes GLE500e	53	269	3	27
10	Mercedes C350e	18	257	3	16
11	Renault Zoe	26	190	2	18
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20	Volkswagen Passat GTE Audi Q7 e-Tron Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Mercedes GLC350e Volvo V60 Plug-In Tesla Model X Audi A3 e-Tron BMW 740e BMW i8	23 82 5 64 16 14 11 39 3	188 179 176 157 114 113 112 108 97	2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1	33 N/A 6 N/A 4 N/A 7 N/A 9
21 22 23	Volkswagen Golf GTE Mercedes B250e Toyota Prius Plug-In	7 5 18	89 86 84	1 1 1	5 11 25
24 24 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34	Mercedes S500e Renault Twizy Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Porsche Panamera Plug-In Renault Kangoo ZE  Volkswagen e-Golf Kia Soul EV Peugeot iOn Citroen C-Zero Volkswagen e-Up! Citröen e-Mehari Others	5 11 5 2 2 2 3 3 4	73 73 70 56 46 36 27 21 14 13 10 25	1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	14 15 21 10 N/A 17 23 20 24 21 N/A
	TOTAL	926	8.046	100

Source: FEBIAC

Europe October 2016 (Updated)

Shock: A legacy OEM actively selling their plug-ins, imagine that!

  

BMW is the new Top Dog  

The European EV market had more than 17.000 registrations last month, 1% down over October 2015, this sales slip has to do with the incentives-derived sales rush in the last quarter of 2015, so expect this trend to continue throughout the end this year. In October, we saw a balanced ranking in the Top Spots:

  

 

#1 BMW i3 – Thanks to the massive arrival of the 33 kWh units, the BMW i3 continues to impress, earning another Number One trophy in October, this time with 1.656 units, up 51% YoY. The largest markets to absorb the improved range Bimmers were Norway (503 units, all BEV), Germany (391 deliveries, of which 117 were Rex units) and Austria (164 deliveries, 11 Rex).

 

#2 Renault Zoe – Registrations were down 21% YoY to 1.447 units, it seems the 40 kWh version is already making itself felt, with buyers waiting for the extended range version. Let’s see if the French carmaker does a Tesla-like stunt in December and delivers their Zoe ZE40 at record levels. It surely has a long enough waiting list to surprise us, do I hear 3.500 units, Renault?  Back to October, besides the French market (844 units), the French hatch also sold ok in Norway (161 units) and Germany (147).

#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – After a close race, the Japanese SUV was Third in October, with 1.444 units, only three units behind the Renault Zoe, but Mitsubishi saw its plug-in SUV sales drop 43% YoY, as in the end of last year its sales were heavily inflated by incentives changes in the Netherlands and Sweden. Having lost those two markets, now the Outlander PHEV has the United Kingdom and Norway to hold sales at high levels.

 

#4 VW Passat GTE – Besides the usual Sweden and Norway, big time Passat GTE lovers, Volkswagen’s midsize offering  is also gaining traction in the Netherlands, with 250 units, its best result of the year there, allowing it to reach the Fourth Position in Europe, with 1.372 units, its best result in 2016. With the right mix of electric range, space, power and price, the Passat GTE is destined for success as company car across Europe.

#5 Nissan Leaf – Sales of the Japanese hatch were surprisingly up 5% YoY, to 1.212 units, with the UK, France and Norway providing enough sales to keep it up with the best. Prospective sales could be even higher, if they had followed Renault and presented a 40 kWh version. With the 60 kWh Second Generation Leaf still a year away, this EV pioneer deserves another update to end the career on a high note, don’t you think? It’s never too late, Nissan…

White BMW 740e: As we all know, this color increases range and makes owners sexier... 

YTD Ranking – Renault Zoe and Outlander PHEV running neck-to-neck wheel-to-wheel

Looking at the YTD ranking, due to an update to the UK sales (Now certified until Q3), the Outlander PHEV came even closer to the leader Renault Zoe, with only 12 units separating them this could be a close race until the end, with the decision of the outcome on the hands of Renault and its ability to deliver enough Zoe ZE 40 units in time to beat the Japanese SUV. I would be disappointed if Renault didn’t pulled it off, but then again, lately many forecasts have been contradicted, so…

Looking below the podium, the rejuvenated BMW i3 keeps on improving, now at Fourth Place and dropping the Tesla Model S to Fifth, while the Renault Kangoo ZE profited from a positive month (557 units, year best), to climb one position to #16.

Now that this report is covering the Top 30 models, we can see some interesting events that previously went unnoticed, like the steady climb of the Audi Q7 e-Tron, jumping to #22 thanks to 540 units, or the appearance of the #29 Mercedes GLC350e, which scored a personal best 256 units in last month, thus becoming the Second Best Rookie of 2016, only behind the media-friendly Tesla Model X (#21). An interesting sign of the current times, is that all these three rising stars are Luxury SUV’s…

October brought a surprising performance from the Mercedes GLE500e, scoring 180 units, a new record, so it seems that Mercedes is increasing production of their plug-in SUV’s, something that also needs to do to the S500e flagship, because the BMW 740e has shaken this rarefied segment since it landed four months ago, the Bavarian barge is now only 18 units behind the Mercedes plug-in (510 vs 492), and having sold more 100 units than its Three-pointed-star competitor last month, one can say that BMW can already order the Full-Size plug-in trophy.

BMW had more good news in the manufacturers ranking, benefiting from the i3 good moment, an extensive lineup and strong advertising across the continent (The only carmaker doing  so), allowed the Munich-based manufacturer (16%, up 1%) to remove Volkswagen (15%, down 1%) from the leadership, an impressive feat considering that BMW ended 2015 in Sixth, with only 8% share.

In Third we have Renault, with 13% share (Down 1%), followed by Nissan (11%) and Mitsubishi (10%).

Pl	Europe	Oct.	2016	%	'15Pl
1	Renault Zoe	1.447	17.277	10	2
2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1.444	17.265	10	1
3	Nissan Leaf	1.212	16.057	9	5
4 5	BMW i3 Tesla Model S	1.656 409	10.934 10.410	6 6	6 4
6 7	Volkswagen Golf GTE Volkswagen Passat GTE	937 1.372	9.360 8.818	6 5	3 12
8	Mercedes C350e	685	7.825	5	11
9	Volvo XC90 T8	508	7.184	4	18
10	BMW 330e	767	6.307	4	37
11 12	Volkswagen e-Golf Audi A3 e-Tron	404 616	5.943 5.171	4 3	4 7
13 14	BMW X5 40e BMW 225xe Active Tourer	423 510	4.145 4.083	2 2	22 32
15	Kia Soul EV	558	3.798	2	10
16	Renault Kangoo ZE	557	3.404	2	13
17	Mercedes B250e	300	2.900	2	17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30	Volvo V60 Plug-In Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Tesla Model X Audi Q7 e-Tron Volkswagen e-Up! Renault Twizy Peugeot iOn BMW i8 Mercedes GLE500e Citröen C-Zero Mercedes GLC350e Bolloré Blue Car Others	256 214 230 295 540 172 135 134 92 180 96 256 188 647	2.840 2.518 2.334 2.213 2.170 1.871 1.770 1.614 1.290 1.239 1.181 1.142 941 5.510	2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3	9 15 14 N/A 36 16 19 23 20 35 26 N/A 25
	TOTAL	17.240	169.514	100

Published also in EV Obsession and CleanTechnica.