World Top 10 October 2014

The Zoe is back with the Big Boys. And all it took was to include the Batteries...

Models - Zoe is Back

There were some 28.500 plug-ins sold last month, which is the third best month of the year and represents a 38% increase over the same month last year, with YTD sales nearing 260.000 units with two months to go, it won't be a surprise if the 300k barrier would be broken this year. 

To put that number in context, last year, the total sales number was 212.508, not bad, eh?

The podium places were deeply cemented over the year, so there's not much to talk about there (Although, the Nissan Leaf lost another point in share...), from the Fourth Place below is where the fun starts, the ever-improving  #8 BYD Qin (1.702 units, tenth consecutive record), distanced itself from the suddenly-slow selling Fusion Energi.

There was also a position change in the bottom place of the ranking, with the i-rejuvenated Renault Zoe (1.324 units) displaced the slower-selling Ford C-Max Energi (658 units) from the #10 spot. 

Segmenting the market by car sizes and types, you can see the Top 3 dominating their segments (C - Leaf; SUV - Outlander; E - Model S), the BMW i3 comfortable in the B-Segment leadership and the Ford Fusion also at ease on the D-Segment.

But, what about the other less visible segments?

Here's how they stand, in the A-Segment, the VW e-Up! is holding on to the leadership, despite the Smart Fortwo ED staying just 123 units behind and gaining ground (569 vs 464 in October), MPV's are Ford C-Max Energi territory, just like the LCV's are Renault's (Kangoo ZE), in the Pick-Up Truck segment, the Mitsu Minicab Miev Truck continues to soldier on alone, while in the Coupe/Sports Car niche, the Cadillac ELR (1.073 units) is losing ground to the BMW i8 every passing month and should see the german car pass it like a bullet somewhere in the months left to the year end.

Pl	WORLD	Oct.	YTD	%	'13Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	5.231	50.130	19	1
2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	2.569	27.115	10	5
3	Tesla Model S	2.352	24.029	9	4
4	Chevrolet Volt (1)	1.569	18.001	7	2
7	BMW i3	2.099	13.373	5	20
8	BYD Qin	1.702	11.175	4	40
9	Ford Fusion Energi	696	10.152	4	9
10	Renault Zoe	1.324	7.472	3	6
	TOTAL	28.495	258.453

Manufacturers -  

Toyota has been under-performing these last months, and Renault is having a Renaissance, being the #5 best selling brand in October, with 1.957 units, its best result of the year so far, let's see if the Battery Included policy will continue to improve the french brand results.

Pl	WORLD	Oct.	YTD	%	'13Pl
1	Nissan	5.276	50.446	20	1
2	Mitsubishi	2.994	30.636	12	3
3	Tesla	2.352	24.029	9	5
4	Ford	1.549	19.293	7	7
5	Chevrolet	1.627	18.992	7	2
8	BMW	2.491	14.298	6	13
9	BYD	1.905	13.425	5	11
10	Renault	1.957	13.009	5	6

(1) - Includes Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera;

e) - Estimate


Questions for November

1 - Will Tesla or Kandi surprise? 

2 - Will the Outlander PHEV post a year best result?

3 - Can Chevrolet reach the #4 Ford?...

4 - ...And can Kandi reach Toyota in the manufacturers ranking?

Markets Roundup October 2014

The Fastest Growing markets and the Declining Ones (By EV Share)

Here are the Top 5 fastest growing EV Markets in the World regarding EV Share

1. New Zealand - It is growing from almost 0% (0,007% in fact), to 0,23% and 197 units (Until September), a stratospheric growth of 3.310%(!);

2. China - The One Market everyone is talking about, twelve months ago this huge market had some 15.500 EV's sold YTD and 0,08% Share, now we are reaching 50.000 units and 0,35% Share, a 440% growth and easily the fastest growing EV market by volume; 

3. Ireland - Another sudden awakening from a deep sleep, growing 337% from 0,08% last year to 0,26% now, selling almost as much in a year (250 units in '14) as it had in the previous four (304 units);

4. UK - The market that initially many (Nissan, for example...) had hoped it would lead EV sales in Europe, is finally coming to its own potential, it has grown almost three times (287%) in Share regarding last year (0,46% vs 0,16%), with sales growing some 6.000 units to 10.000 a year, becoming the fastest growing European Market by volume;

5. Iceland - This small market never fails to surprise us, before 2012 there weren't any significant  sales of electric cars here, then that year, 18 units were sold, performing a 0,21% share, in 2013 sales surged to 72 units and 0,94% share, and right now sales are at 162 (With two months to go) and the EV Share is in a world-leading 2,50%, if this trend goes on, Reykjavik might dethrone Oslo as the EV-Capital of the World in a couple of years...


And here are the only Top 5 declining EV Markets in the World regarding EV Share

1. Israel - The proof that artificial demand is short lived, the Israeli EV market evaporated in the air with the end of the Better Place deal, going from 1.068 units and 0,22% last year, to just 5 EV's and 0,002% share;

2. Netherlands -  Due to fiscal changes, this was artificially inflated EV market last year, with sales jumping from some 6.000 units in 2012 (and 1,10% EV Share) , to an incredible 23.000 the next year, pulling the EV Share to an amazing 5,55%. Without that injection of sales, this year sales are down, just like the EV Share, now at 3,90%, a 42% drop but still way above the 2012 result; 

3. Australia - Plug-ins are finding a hostile environment here, with slow sales that this year have been even slower than usual, with the EV Share going down from 0,027% to 0,021%. Will the incoming Tesla and BMW i cars do something to change this?

4. Hong Kong - The answer to the question above may be in this market, in the beggining of the year, the Hong Kong EV market was in the doldrums, selling in single digits, but in the last three months, with the arrival of Tesla and the i-brandes BMW's, sales have surged, with October registering an all-time record of 90 units and the EV Share almost leveling (0,37%) with last year result of 0,39%;

5. Spain - Sales were also on the downside here during the first half of the year, but the second semester brought the three best sales months of the year and now it looks that the EV Share will recover the slight delay it has regarding last year (0,163 in '14 vs 0,176% in '13).

BMW i8 Real Competition

If Elon Musk is right by saying that the real competition of the Tesla Model S isn't other plug-ins, but the ICE BMW 5-Series, Merc E-Class, Audi A6 among others, then the true competition for the BMW i8 aren't other EV's, because it has no real competitors there (Only the ELR can be considered as such), but other ICE six-figured sports cars, and in that category we have the undisputed leader of them all for year and years, the Porsche 911.

Can the i8 even so tickle the 911 on the sales front?

Let's see how they compared in October on some markets:

USA

i8 - 204 sales;
911 - 974;

Netherlands

i8 - 14
911 - 10

Spain

i8 - 4
911 - 14

Germany

i8 - 75
911 - 541



 







Trends in the G8 

In the Top Markets, there were a few surprises, some good (UK and China continue to trail the best expectations), others not so good (The US demand is softening).

The EV Shares continue to grow in general, with China now at 0,35% vs 0,33% last month, and the UK at 0,46% vs 0,42% the month before, but Japan is also on positive numbers, reaching closer and closer to the 1% barrier (It's now at 0,98%).

Looking at the monthly models ranking of each country, the Nissan Leaf was Best Seller in Norway, Japan and the US, while the Outlander PHEV, took the UK title from Nissan (A shift of consumers taste?), adding it to the Dutch market trophy. The Smart was again Best Seller in Germany (What's up with the i3 and e-Golf?), while the Zoe (Or is it i-Zoe?) is back to form in France.

Finally, in China the ever-improving BYD Qin has beaten the Kandi EV.


Questions for November

1 - Will Tesla surprise us with record numbers? In which market(s)?

2 - Who will be #1 in Norway? And in Germany?

3 - Will the e-Golf finally start to collect #1's?

Japan October 2014

This one is coming to back-up Nissan's race with Mitsubishi.

Back to Normal Edition 

After record sales in September, the Japanese went back to its usual self, with 2.573 units sold last month, pulling the EV Share up again to 0,98% (Will we see this market end the year at 1%?).

Looking at the models ranking, the top two models had different performances, with the Leaf again #1 (Fourth in a row), with an average result (1.162 units), while the Mitsu Outlander PHEV only registered 538 units, considering the known production constraints of Mitsubishi, it looks that it is sacrificing its home market to benefit others abroad, and with the year end sales peak coming soon, it wouldn't be much of a surprise such decision.

The rest of the models are in cruise speed, with the big question mark being Tesla, how will consumers react to it?

Looking at the brands ranking, after a tight race throughout the year, Nissan (44%) has finally left Mitsubishi (38%) behind, and with the addition of the e-NV200 coming soon, things can only get better, in order to recover the Best Selling Manufacturer Title won in 2011 (Mitsubishi won it in 2009, 2010 and 2013, while Toyota had it in 2012).  

Pl	Japan	Oct.	2014	%	Pl '13
1	Nissan Leaf	1.162	12.039	44	1
2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	538	8.898	32	2
3	Toyota Prius Plug-In e)	500	4.178	15	3
4	Mitsubishi I-Miev	102	859	3	4
5	Mitsubishi Minicab Miev	93	732	3	5
6 7 8 9 10	BMW i3 e) Mitsub. Minicab Miev Truck Honda Accord Plug-In e) Tesla Model S e) BMW i8 e)	100 18 5 50 5	615 133 102 92 6	2 0 0 0 0	N/A 6 8 N/A N/A
	TOTAL	2.573	27.654	100

e) Estimate

Source:http://evn.blog.eonet.jp; http://www.samochodyelektryczne.org

Europe October 2014

The Star of the Moment

Gold! Edition

With some 8.829 units sold in October, the European EV market was 23% above October '13, scoring the third best result of the year, after September (10.212 units) and March (9.690).

Looking at the monthly models ranking, the leader Outlander PHEV continues to dominate the chart, selling  again more than 2.000 units, while the runner-up this time was the Renault Zoe, with 1.320 sales, repeating the Second Spot of August '13, at that time with just 507 units. The Nissan Leaf was #3 with 1.209 units, being the first time it scores five consecutive months selling in the four-digit area, in #4 we have another regular customer, the BMW i3, with 745 sales, while in #5 we have a surprise, with the Volvo V60 Plug-In registering its best result since last April, by selling 544 units.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	2.065
2	Renault Zoe	1.320
3	Nissan Leaf	1.209
4	BMW i3	745
5	Volvo V60 Plug-In	544

On the YTD ranking, the Renault Zoe recovered the Fourth Spot from Tesla, which had a horrible month, selling just 166 units, its worst performing month ever in Europe, it was even outranked in the monthly table by the higher priced BMW i8, a sports car that's still landing in some parts of the Continent...

Speaking of the new goldenboy from BMW, it was #11 last month with 170 units and it jumped to #14 YTD, something to be regarded with respect, considering the type of car it is. And the #13 Prius Plug-In is just 83 units ahead...Oh, and don't forget that it has a one year-plus waiting list, BMW has really struck gold with this one. 

There were other position changes in the ranking, the VW e-Golf, finally joined the Top 10, rising 2 positions to #9, the Mitsu I-Miev was up one position, just like their french cousin, the Peugeot iOn up 1, which changed positions with the Opel Ampera, losing another place on the road to the Great Scrapyard on the Sky. The Kia Soul EV went up one position to #24 and now wants to pass the #23 Peugeot Partner EV in what is left of the year.

Below the #30 position, there are a few newcomers looking to feature in this ranking, from the Mercedes offerings (B-Class ED #31 with 44 units and S500 Plug-In #32, with 43), to the Porsche Cayenne Plug-In, #33 with 42 units, 34 of them made last month, already featuring in #21 on the October table, from the look of things, it seams that in the future it will easily outsell its more bourgeois brother, the Panamera Plug-In. 

Finally, regarding the manufacturers ranking, Mitsubishi is on the high, with 22% share, a strong progression over time for the japanese brand, considering that it ended 2013 with 14% and in 2012 it had just 4%! Nissan shares the second spot with Renault, both with 16%, but while the japanese side of the Alliance has been steady over the years (16% in 2013, 12% in 2012), the french side has lost 20% share since 2012! (27% in 2013, 37% in 2012).

Pl	Europe	Oct.	2014	%	'13Pl
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	2.065	16.952	22	3
2	Nissan Leaf	1.209	12.363	16	1
3	BMW i3	745	8.164	10	12
4	Renault Zoe	1.320	7.400	9	2
5	Tesla Model S	166	7.280	9	7
6	Volkswagen e-Up!	465	4.707	6	11
7	Volvo V60 Plug-In	544	4.378	6	4
8	Renault Kangoo ZE	400	3.214	4	5
9	Volkswagen e-Golf	419	2.119	3	N/A
10	Smart Fortwo ED	351	2.108	3	9
11	Renault Twizy	223	2.009	3	10
12	Bolloré Bluecar	120	1.008	1	16
13 14	Toyota Prius Plug-In BMW i8	60 170	717 634	1 1	15 N/A
15 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30	Citröen C-Zero Mitsubishi I-Miev Porsche Panamera Plug-In Peugeot iOn Opel Ampera Goupil  Nissan e-NV200 Audi A3 e-Tron Peugeot Partner EV Kia Soul EV Ford Focus Electric Citröen Berlingo EV VW Golf GTE Renault Fluence ZE Chevrolet Volt BYD e6	37 65 38 80 22 41 45 15 10 89 4 10 17 6 1 4	588 588 587 519 501 338 323 265 251 219 203 134 113 98 63 47	1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	12 14 21 18 8 17 N/A N/A 22 N/A 24 N/A N/A 19 13 N/A
	TOTAL	8.829	78.138

Italy October 2014

Leaf is Back at #1

Great result for the Italian EV Market, with 237 units sold, the best month since 2012, when the Twizy Fever was spreading across the italian streets, but this time the source for this result doesn't come from Renault, but from its Alliance partner, Nissan, which has registered 93 Leaf's, the best result ever for a non-Twizy highway-capable car.

In the YTD ranking, the top places are pretty leveled, with the Nissan Leaf recovering the leadership, followed by the Renault Twizy, only 21 units behind, while the #3 Smart Fortwo ED still has to keep an eye on the #4 BMW i3 to prevent any surprises.

Final mention for the positive numbers from the EV Share, now at 0,114%, fractionally above last year result of 0,110%,

Pl	Italy	Oct.	YTD	%	'13Pl
1	Nissan Leaf	93	289	22	2
1	Renault Twizy	48	278	21	1
3	Smart Fortwo ED	29	225	17	4
4	BMW i3 *	22	183	14	7
5	Renault Zoe	9	108	8	3
6 7	Mitsu. Outlander PHEV Volvo V60 Plug-In	24	55 41	4 3	N/A 5
8 9	Tesla Model S Volkswagen e-Up!	4 4	38 33	3 2	11 N/A
10	Renault Fluence ZE	1	29	2	8
11	Peugeot iOn	1	25	2	10
12 13 14 15 16	Citröen C-Zero Fiat 500e Mia Electric Mitsubishi I-Miev Volkswagen e-Golf	6 1 1 1	14 6 5 1 1	1 0 0 0 0	6 N/A 14 N/A N/A
	TOTAL	237	1.331	100

Source: greenstart.it

* - 7 bev + 15 rex

Belgium October 2014

The Renault Zoe Was the Star of the Month

Surprise Win for Zoe

142 ev's were sold last month in Belgium, another average month in the 100-something units, keeping the EV Share at 0,41%.

Looking at the monthly models ranking, the Renault Zoe came out of nowhere (It had sold just 3 units in the previous month) to win the Best Seller Trophy, the first time it did so, with a record 37 units being sold, does this sudden surge means that Renault is finally selling the car with batteries included? Let's hope so.

The BMW i3 was the second best selling car of the month, with 19 units, followed in #3 by the Mitsu Outlander PHEV, with 13 units, and in #4 we have another surprise, with the BMW i8 selling 12 units and jumping one position on the YTD table to #13, switching positions with the runnout-mode Opel Ampera.

Speaking of the YTD chart, the VW e-Golf jumped two positions to #10 and it's now looking to overcome its smaller brother, the e-Up!, and reach #9 before the year end.

Finally, two new additions to the ranking, the Audi A3 e-Tron had a good landing month, registering nine units, while the Porsche Cayenne S E-Hybrid (Aka Plug-In), made its first 4 sales and it is looking in 2015 to join the Panamera in the front positions. 

Pl	Belgium	Oct.	YTD	%	'13Pl
1	Tesla Model S	6	367	22	2
2	BMW i3 *	19	266	16	7
3	Porsche Panamera Plug-In	8	212	13	12
4	Nissan Leaf	9	156	9	3
5	Volvo V60 Plug-In	4	126	8	1
6	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	13	134	8	19
7	Renault Twizy	9	94	6	4
8	Renault Zoe	37	85	5	5
9	Volkswagen e-Up!	2	41	2	14
10	Volkswagen e-Golf	6	39	2	N/A
11	Smart Fortwo ED	1	37	2	6
12	BYD e6		36	2	N/A
13	BMW i8	12	21	1	N/A
14 15 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 20 20 20 20 20	Opel Ampera Audi A3 e-Tron Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Mitsubishi I-Miev Kia Soul EV Peugeot iOn Nissan e-NV200 Fisker Karma Porsche 918 Citröen C-Zero Toyota Prius Plug-In McLaren P1 Renault Fluence ZE Mia Electric	2 9 4 1	12 9 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1	1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	8 N/A N/A 10 N/A 14 N/A 9 N/A N/A 14 N/A 11 13
	TOTAL	142	1.657	100

Source: febiac.be

* - 13 Bev + 6 Rex

Finland September 2014

Tesla really needs the AWD versions to revive the Model S sales

Leaf surprise #1

With one month delay, we have the numbers from Finland, with 37 plug-ins sold and 308 units YTD (0,35% EV Share), this small market is doubling sales regarding last year, this growth exists despite some plug-in friendly brands being absent, like Renault or BMW, by the way, does anybody know why this is happening?

The Nissan Leaf made a Personal Best in September, selling 15 units and performing a surprising Best Seller title in September, ahead of the new poster-boy of this market, the 4x4 Mitsu Outlander PHEV, which has almost double the sales of the #2 YTD, the Model S from Tesla, which is counting with the AWD versions coming next year to have a say in the leadership race.

The other AWD Plug-In, the Volvo V60 Plug-In is #4, with 12% share, which together with the 36% of the japanese SUV, make 48% of the market with Four Wheel Drive, something that leaves promising signs for the PHEV Cayenne and Volvo XC90, or the AWD Teslas.

Pl	Finland	Sept '14	YTD '14	%	Pl '13
1 2	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Tesla Model S	9 7	111 65	36 21	N/A 7
3	Nissan Leaf	15	51	17	3
4	Volvo V60 Plug-In	1	36	12	1
5	Toyota Prius Plug-In	3	18	6	2
6	Opel Ampera	2	13	4	4
7	Porsche Panamera Plug-In		7	2	8
8 9 10	Ford Focus Electric Mitsubishi I-Miev Fisker Karma		4 2 1	1 3 1	N/A 5 8
	TOTAL	37	308	100

Source: trafi.fi