Tuesday, January 31, 2017

World Top 20 December 2016 (Updated)

Image result for venucia e30
Is this Leaf with a  different nose-job, the 40 kWh version?
Nope, this is the Venucia e30, or how Nissan sells the Leaf in China


Models - Nissan Leaf 2016 Best Seller

Thanks to outstanding performances in the USA, Europe and China, the global EV market had its best month ever December, surpassing for the first time the 100.000 units delivered, representing a 20% growth YoY, with 2016 ending with 774.000 units, 40% above 2015, placing the Global plug-in share at some 0.85%, still below the desired 1%, but i believe it will be a question of a few months until that threshold is achieved.

In the models ranking, the big news were the race for Number One between the Nissan Leaf (Including the China-only Venucia e30) and Tesla Model S, with the Froggy Nissan winning the race by less than 1.000 units, pulling out a surprising 4.843 units in December, its best result since March, no doubt thanks to deep discounts, which was enough to resist the expected Model S December deliveries push, which was some 1.000 units below the September peak, possibly due to Tesla prioritizing Model X deliveries over its older brother.

The Bronze medalist BYD Tang ended the year with a general slowdown, having registered only 1.510 units in December, its worst performance in over a year.

If the year had another month, the Chevrolet Volt would have a real shot at the Third Spot, but still, December was a positive month for the GM nameplate, rising to Fourth and having registered a record 3.974 units that month, all while beating the full year record of the Gen1 Volt. And did all of this by selling only in North America and South Korea. Imagine if they marketed it in China and Europe...

The BMW i3 33-kWh-kick continues to be felt, with near-record performances, thus securing the Sixth Place, while the Tesla Model X surged to Seventh, thanks to a record 6.975 units in December, becoming last months Best Selling EV and also outselling for the first time its Model S sibling. Are we witnessing the coming of age of Tesla's Ugly Duckling?

The Renault Zoe kept its Eighth Spot, but the BYD Qin dropped to Ninth in the last month of the year, with only 821 registrations, ending 2016 far from the Fourth Spot won in the previous year.

In #10 we find a surprise, with the BYD e6, the oldest model in this Top 20, climbing to #10 and selling in 2016 more units (20.610) than in the previous six years combined (14.489)...It's amazing what a new (And big, 82 kWh!) battery does to an EV career, eh?

As this is a Full Year Special Edition, we dig a little deeper, into the Top 20, where we can see that eight out of ten models come from China, among them we see the BAIC's sudden drop, the #13 Geely Emgrand EV (#3 in December) rise to power, winning the Rookie of the Year award, while they prepare a Top 10 position for 2017, the discrete but steady rise of the #17 BYD e5 and the #20 Zotye E200.

The two other models come from the D-segment/midsize class, with the #16 Ford Fusion Energi beating its personal record and registering over 16.000 units, while the #19 VW Passat GTE became the Best Selling model from the Volkswagen Group, with 13.246 units.

The rise of the Chinese manufacturers has significantly changed the BEV/PHEV breakdown, at this moment BEV's have a 64% take rate, well above the 36% of PHEV's, we have to go back to 2011 to see such a big difference.

PlWORLDDec. YTD%'15Pl
1Nissan Leaf4.84351.88272
2Tesla Model S6.95250.94471
3BYD Tang1.51031.40548
4
5
6
Chevrolet Volt
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
BMW i3
3.974
2.696
2.863
28.296
27.322
25.934
4
4
3
9
3
5
7
8
Tesla Model X
Renault Zoe
6.975
2.895
25.299
22.009
3
3
68
7
9BYD Qin82121.86834
10BYD e62.52820.610322
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
29
BAIC E-Series EV
BAIC EU260
Geely Emgrand EV
Zotye Cloud EV
Chery eQ
Ford Fusion Energi
BYD e5
SAIC Roewe e550
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Zotye E200
227
309
6.023
1.615
1.927
1.099
2.420
620
3.329
2.213
18.814
18.805
17.181
16.417
16.017
16.009
15.639
15.145
13.246
13.154
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
11
64
N/A
12
21
17
47
15
32
N/A

TOTAL 103.527
774.384




Manufacturers -  BYD Reaches 100.000

Looking at December Best Selling manufacturers, Tesla did another record performance, with 13.927 units, a new all-time high, leaving the remaining podium bearers miles behind, as the Second Placed BYD registered 8.444 units (Down 23% YoY...What gives BYD?) and BMW did a personal best of 7.852 units.

Not that this changed much at the top, with BYD winning the Manufacturers title for the second time in a row, this time with over 100.000 units (A new all-time record), as the company predicted at the beginning of the year. Now, will they be able to deliver 200.000 units in 2017 as they had said on their Master Plan? Mmmm...

Tesla ended in Second once again, with over 76.000 units, and it all points out that it will continue to be BYD's runner-up this year.

As for the Bavarian automaker, the benefits from a strong (And extensive) lineup continue to be felt, securing its first podium seat with 62.148 units, or 3% of all BMW's sold in the World. In December three Bimmer models have beaten their personal best results and another was introduced (BMW 530e), so all points to a strong beginning this year and the 100.000 goal that the brand set for 2017 seems not only perfectly attainable, but somewhat modest.   

Below the podium many brands went all out in December, with Chevrolet having the most significant performance, not for the number itself, currently 4.572 units is not that much, but its a new record for the American brand and allowed it to overcome Mitsubishi and reach #8, an important step above the #11 achieved in 2015.

As for Mitsubishi, sales were down 33% YoY to 32.000 units, its worst performance since 2013 and the #9 spot is the worst position for the Japanese manufacturer since it started in 2009...Carlos Ghosn has a big job ahead at Mitsubishi.  

Looking to the places below the #10 Renault, Mercedes is up to #13, with the German brand sales surging 88% to 20.000 units, Geely is the Newcomer of the Year, jumping to #17 in its first year in the market, while Audi had the strange thing that was down six positions to #20, despite growing 25% YoY.

"We are growing, but the others are growing even faster!" - A phrase that must have been said sometime in EV-related Audi meetings, with the ultimate humiliation being the fact that it is currently the slowest selling of the Three German Premium Marys (Oh, the shame!).

PlWORLDDec.YTD%'15Pl
1BYD8.444100.183131
2Tesla 13.12976.243102
3BMW7.85262.14886
4Nissan5.24356.49874
5
6
7
BAIC
Volkswagen
Zotye
4.709
5.619
5.208
46.420
37.523
37.363
6
5
5
12
5
9
8Chevrolet 4.57232.199411
9Mitsubishi3.14232.17943
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Renault
Ford
Chery
Mercedes
Zhidou
SAIC Roewe
JAC
Geely
JMC
Volvo
Audi
3.622
2.506
4.849
3.611
1.838
1.431
2.498
6.023
1.808
2.313
2.994
29.701
25.297
20.963
20.479
20.292
20.017
18.369
17.181
15.598
15.579
15.492
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
8
10
13
16
23
15
17
N/A
25
18
14






Segment Leaders

A / City Car - Zotye Cloud EV (16.417 units), Chinese specialty, remaining positions in the podium also by chinese models: Chery eQ (16.017 units) and Zotye E200 (13.154).

B / Subcompact - BMW i3 (25.934 units), winning over its arch-rival Renault Zoe (22.009), BAIC E-Series EV (18.814) Third once again;

C / Compact - Nissan Leaf (51.882 units), the Chevy Volt (28.296) and BYD Qin (21.868) were too far behind to pose a threat;

D / Midsize - Ford Fusion Energi (16.009 units), once again leader of the class, with the VW Passat GTE (13.246) in Second and the Mercedes C350 (10.458) in Third;

E+F / Fullsize - Tesla Model S (50.944 units), hands down leader. Second and Third Place for Mercedes: The S500e was Second with 1.498 units and the E350e Third, with 1.117.

Sports car / Convertible - BMW i8 (3.908 units), without real competition, the Second Placed was the Cadillac ELR (617 units) and Third was the Citröen e-Mehari (544);

SUV - BYD Tang (31.405) removed the #2 Outlander PHEV (27.322) from the leadership, with the Tesla Model X an ambitious Third (25.299);

MPV / Minivan - BYD e6 (20.610 units), shaming the #2 Ford C-Max Energy (8.203) and #3 BMW 225xe Active Tourer (5.931);

LCV / Van - This time was Nissan winning, with the e-NV200/Evalia gathering 4.616 units overcoming the 4.031 of the Renault Kangoo ZE, with the StreetScooter being a distant Third (1.500 units);

Pick up Truck - The Chinese Dongfeng Rich EV (305 units) arrived just in time to replace the Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck (66 units) and continue the EV saga in the Pick-up market. Unless legacy OEMs wake up to this niche, Chinese carmakers will probably fill the void soon with a number of models. 

Markets Roundup December 2016 (Special Edition)

Image result for EV cars gathering


I. Big Eight

Let's see how the Big Eight EV Markets fared in 2016:

China

* BYD Tang #1 - But the BYD SUV was losing power in the last months of the year; 

* 351.000 units - At some point i was expecting 400k units, but still, is whole lot more than the 207k of 2015. And the Market Share reached 1.45%, more than the US or Europe. 

USA

* Tesla Model S #1 - Second Title (And last?) for the Californian, but the Chevy Volt was not that far off;

* 159.000 sales - Strong second half of the year, leaving good signs for 2017.


Norway


* Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV #1 - The unthinkable happened, for the first time, a PHEV was the Best Selling plug-in in Norway! It was not only in Global Politics that Hell has frozen;

* 46.000 units in Norway - Sales continue to grow higher and higher (29.5% market share!), albeit through plug-in hybrids, as BEV's have stagnated in 2016. 

Japan

* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and ended with a new all-time record;


* 22.000 units - What can i say, big disappointment here.


France

* Renault Zoe #1 - How could it be otherwise?


* 34.000 units - Steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 1.7%.


Germany

* BMW i3 #1 - The prodigal son took the Trophy home after a close race with the Renault Zoe.

* 27.000 sales - A bit disappointing, only 3.000 units above 2015, and that's with incentives kicking in...What's wrong with this picture? 

Netherlands

* VW Passat GTE #1 - In one of the most dramatic twists of 2016, the VW Passat GTE took the leadership crown in the last month of the year from the head ceiling of the Volvo XC90 T8; 

* 23.000 units - Far from the 43k sales of 2015, a tremendous drop, but i'm afraid the sales slowdown will continue in 2017...

Image result for CHINA EV's

II. Engines of Growth

* By EV Share 

One is pretty obvious, after all, the Norwegian EV performance continues to be the poster-child for the EV Scene, with the market share ending 2016 at 29.5% vs 23% in 2015. 

But there were other markets pulling up strongly, like Sweden (3.6% now vs 2.6% in '15), Belgium, (1.8% in '16 vs 0.8% in '15) or Austria (1.6% vs 0.7%). But the most impressive market was Iceland, with the EV Share jumping from an already high 2,9% in '15, to 4.6% now! 

Other markets with healthy rises were China (1.45% vs 0.84%), the UK (1.48% vs 1.07%) and Finland (1.2% vs 0.6%), which together with France (1.7%), Netherlands (6%), Switzerland (1.8%), Hong Kong (+/- 5%) and Sri Lanka (+/- 2%), make a grand total of 13 markets with over 1% market share...Not bad, eh?

* By Volume

EV Share is important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case China made all the headlines, with 144.000 more units being sold in 2016 than in the previous year, at this pace, China will reach half a million EV's sold in 2017...

Others have also progressed greatly, like the USA (43k more, to 158k) or Norway (46k vs 34k), while the UK (40k vs 28k), continues to outpace the growth of France (34k vs 27k) and Germany (27k vs 24k), outside the Big 8, there are also markets adding significant volume, like Belgium (+5.5k!), Sweden (+4.5k) or Canada (+4k), while South Korea finally woke up and grew to 5.883 units in 2016, up from 2.681 in the previous year. A market to keep an eye in 2017.

Image result for EV's in hong Kong

III. Other markets

A few words regarding markets that have fallen through the cracks or are just beginning:

Hong Kong - It's all Tesla here, with the BMW i3 a distant second;

South Africa - BMW all the way, but numbers have fallen regarding 2015;

Poland - Stable market, with the BMW i3 winning over the Outlander PHEV;

Brazil - Once again, BMW is doing its homework here, waiting for a possible sales boom;

Russia - It's all about Tesla fanatics;

Mexico - Nissan Leaf wins;

UAE - Some 300 BMW i8's found home here;

Slovakia - Nissan are the only ones doing something here;

Colombia - Twizy is King, but the BMW i3 is finding its niche;

Hungary - BMW and Nissan run for Best Seller, BMW wins;

Croatia - VW e-Up! has a following here;

Malaysia - Nissan doing the heavy lifting;

Sri Lanka - The Nissan Leaf is a local darling;

Image result for EV's in Sri Lanka

IV. 2016 vs 2015

Let's compare #1's of this year with the ones of 2015 (Previous winner):

Nissan Leaf -  Japan (Outlander PHEV); Italy (Like in 2014 and 2015); Estonia (Since 2013); Ireland (Since 2011); Portugal (Outlander PHEV); Slovakia (Like in 2014 and 2015); Cyprus; Malaysia (Renault Twizy); Mexico; Sri Lanka (Since 2013).

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV - Norway (VW e-Golf); UK (Like in 2014 and 2015);  Australia (Like in 2014 and 2015); New Zealand (Like in 2014 and 2015); Spain (Like in 2015); Iceland (VW e-Golf); Costa Rica;

BMW i3 - Germany (Kia Soul EV); Czech Republic (Like in 2014 and 2015); Slovenia (Renault Zoe); Poland (Outlander PHEV); Romania (Outlander PHEV); Hungary; Greece; South Africa (Like in 2015); Brazil.

Renault Zoe - France (Since 2013); Austria (Tesla Model S); Denmark (Tesla Model S);  

Model S - Switzerland (Like in 2014 and 2015); USA (Like in 2015); Hong Kong (Like in 2015); Luxembourg;

Volvo XC90 T8 - Belgium (Tesla Model S); Finland (Tesla Model S);

VW Passat GTE - Netherlands (Outlander PHEV); Sweden (Outlander PHEV).

Chevrolet Volt - Canada (Tesla Model S);

Hyundai Ioniq Electric - South Korea (Renault Samsung SM3 ZE).

BYD Tang - China (BYD Qin).

Renault Twizy - Colombia (Like in 2015); Ecuador;

VW e-Up! - Lithuania (BMW i3); Croatia (Like in 2015)

BMW i8 - Turkey (Like in 2015); UAE

Examining this, we can see that the Tesla Model S lost a great number of markets, collecting only four awards, while the Nissan Leaf recovered five markets, one of them being its home country, winning 10 Best Seller trophies.

Mitsubishi's SUV also lost a number of #1's, with only seven markets crowning it as the Best Seller, but had a somewhat unexpected award in Norway (Kudos for the local importer), while the BMW i3 won in nine markets, including its home Germany, with these four models being the only ones to win in more than three markets.


Monday, January 30, 2017

Japan December 2016

Image result for prius prime
Prius PHEV: 2017 Best Seller?

Nissan Leaf Number One


In 2016, the Japanese EV was down for the second consecutive year, this time the drop was smaller, only 12% regarding 2015, with some 22.000 plug-ins being registered. Consequently, the EV Share was down to 0,42%. 

With such numbers, one has to go back five years to see such low numbers, with the coming arrival of the much anticipated Toyota Prius Prime, things are expected to change for the good in 2017 and even the 2014 record (32.418 units) can possibly be beaten, let's wait and see.


But not all was bad news in 2016, the Nissan Leaf has beaten its 2014 sales record by some 600 units, establishing also a new all-time record for any model in Japan, with this performance, the Nissan EV has won its Fourth Best Seller title in Japan, after those won in 2011, 2013 and 2014.

On the other hand, the other driving force for plug-ins in this market, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, had by far its worst year ever, with only 5.459 units, half of what it usually registered.

The remaining models in the ranking have comparatively small numbers, with the top two models gobbling 90% of the market.

In the manufacturers ranking, it's another win for Nissan, its Third, after the 2011 and 2014 titles, having one trophy less than Mitsubishi (2009, '10, '13 and '15).

Will Nissan win its fourth this year? If i had to bet, i would say "No", as Toyota seems focused to recover with the new Prius the scepter won in 2012.

Pl
Japan
Dec.
  2016
     %Pl '15
1Nissan Leaf1.23214.79366
2
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV5005.45924
1
3Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia e)759574
7
4BMW i3 e)453151
4
5Mitsubishi Minicab Miev 162001
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Tesla Model S e)
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Mit. Minicab Miev Truck
BMW i8 e)
Smart Fortwo ED
BMW 330e e)
Audi A3 e-Tron e)
Honda Accord PHEV
15

2





198
160
158
66
30
22
10
5
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
3
8
9
10
N/A
N/A
N/A


TOTAL1.88522.375100

e) Estimate








Europe December 2016 (Updated)

Image result for Renault Zoe ZE40
I'll have the white one, please.


Europe’s Best Selling Plug-in: Renault Zoe   


The European EV market had some 30.000 registrations last month, down 11% over the same month last year, this sales slip had to do with the incentives-derived sales rush of the last quarter of 2015. Last month, the Top Spots were influenced by the Dutch market sales peak:
  
Related image
#1 VW Passat GTE – The Volkswagen midsize offering had a record result, with 3.310 units, Holland (2.736 units) absorbed 83% of all Passat GTE registrations, starving the usual bread-and-butter markets, like Sweden (150 units) and Norway (159). With the right mix of electric range, space, power and price, the Passat GTE is a continuing success among company fleets across Europe.

Image result for white renault zoe
#2 Renault Zoe – Despite being one of those all-hands-on-deck month, as Renault was set to recover the YTD leadership from the Outlander PHEV, registrations were down 9% YoY to 2.867 units, because mass delivery of the 40 kWh version only happened in France and late in the month, leaving dealerships elsewhere with little inventory to sell. Because of this, the French hatchback had a good performance at home (1.928 units, up 22% YoY), but disappointed elsewhere.  

Image result for white Outlander PHEV
#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – As it ran to keep the YTD leadership, the Japanese SUV profited from the Dutch sales surge (1.065 units) in December to reach a sales peak of 2.393 units, but Mitsubishi ended the month in Third, as it failed to deliver in Norway (259 units, down 33% regarding the previous month) and the United Kingdom (440 units, down 35% YoY) their usual monthly Outlander fix. Were they unable to increase the production output?

Image result for white BMW i3 back
#4 BMW i3 – The German Stormtrooper hatchback continues to profit from the 33 kWh sales boost, this time with 1.819 units being delivered. Besides the usual Norway, with 413 units, other markets where the Bimmer performed well were Germany (433 deliveries), the United Kingdom (250 units) and Switzerland (149).

Image result for mercedes c350e white 
#5 Mercedes C350e – Despite not showing up a lot in top positions, the Mercedes midsize model is a consistent performer just outside the Top 5, and in December it profited from strong sales in The Netherlands and United Kingdom, both above 500 units, to reach a near record performance of 1.622 units, proving that fleets and midsize managers are warming up to plug-ins, if nothing else, because of fiscal incentives. Now, if they plug-in their company cars at night is a whole different question…

Image result for bmw i i3 i8
EV Nirvana: One for weekday commuting, the other for weekend long journeys

 
 2016 Ranking – Renault Zoe wins models trophy, BMW manufacturers

After a really close race for the Best Seller title, with the deliveries delay of the 40 kWh units artificially dragging down the Zoe performance, the Renault model finally managed to win its first Gold medal, after two Silvers and one Bronze, with 21.735 units (422 of them being 2-seater LCV’s aka vans), 417 units ahead of the two times winner Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that despite seeing its sales drop 32% regarding 2015, still managed to give the chills to Renault and leave the Best Seller title decision to the last week of December, when the Zoe deliveries really took off.

As expected, the Nissan Leaf ended the year in Third, with 18.827 units, up 21% YoY, being effectively its best year in Europe since it arrived in 2011, all thanks to the 30 kWh battery in the first half of the year and heavy discounting later.

Below the podium, the VW Passat GTE jumped two positions to Fifth Place, while the Audi A3 e-Tron and Volvo V60 Plug-In profited from strong performances in Holland to climb one position each, respectively to #11 and #16.

Talking about climbers, the trend-setters #18 Audi Q7 e-Tron and #19 Tesla Model X earned a couple of positions in the ranking, with the Tesla model winning also the Rookie of the Year award.

A hot item is the Luxury SUV class, the Volvo XC90 T8 won this category, with almost 10.000 units, three times more the sales that the 2015 winner had then (Porsche Cayenne PHEV, 3.385 units). Interestingly, this year, four Luxury SUV’s (Volvo XC90, BMW X5, Audi Q7 and Tesla Model X) sold more than last year winner. Hot stuff indeed.    

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW won its first Manufacturers title, with 17% share, leaving last year winner, Volkswagen (15%), in Second Place, with Renault in Third, with 13% share, followed by Nissan and Mitsubishi, both at 10%.

Interestingly, in 2015 BMW was only Sixth, with 8% share. The reasons for this turn around lie in their ever expanding i-Performance PHEV lineup pumping out sales at full speed and the new 33 kWh version of the i3, that pulled sales of the RWD hatchback to record heights. 

Pl
Europe
Dec.
2016
%
'15Pl
1
Renault Zoe
2.867
21.735
10
2
2
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
2.393
21.318
10
1
3
Nissan Leaf
1.595
18.827
9
5
4
5
BMW i3
Volkswagen Passat GTE
1.819
3.310
15.060
13.110
7
6
6
12
6
7
Tesla Model S
Volkswagen Golf GTE
1.408
1.260
12.549
11.329
6
5
4
3
8
Mercedes C350e
1.622
10.125
5
11
9
Volvo XC90 T8
1.298
9.469
4
18
10
BMW 330e
1.464
8.691
4
37
11
12
Audi A3 e-Tron
Volkswagen e-Golf
1.195
302
6.908
6.657
3
3
7
4
13
14
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
BMW X5 40e
860
382
5.915
5.309
3
2
32
22
15
Kia Soul EV
338
4.417
2
10
16
17
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Volvo V60 Plug-In
425
894
4.319
4.159
2
2
15
9
18
Renault Kangoo ZE
295
3.900
2
13
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Audi Q7 e-Tron
Tesla Model X
Mercedes B250e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Volkswagen e-Up!
Renault Twizy
Peugeot iOn
Mercedes GLC350e
Citröen C-Zero
StreetScooter Work e)
BMW i8
Mercedes GLE500e
Others
1.183
1.094
246
285
322
250
135
325
272
150
110
97
1.951
3.883
3.680
3.508
2.955
2.557
2.230
1.894
1.865
1.836
1.800
1.574
1.355
9.683
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
36
N/A
17
14
16
19
23
N/A
26
N/A
20
35

TOTAL
30.146
222.619
100

Article also published on EV Obsession and CleanTechnica