A Segment (City Cars)
Renault Twingo ZE
Renault Twingo ZE
With the five best selling models in this segment coming from China, the upcoming Smart ForTwo / ForFour ED models and Renault Twingo ZE will have a hard time to reach a Podium seat, let alone winning this class, so 2017 should be decided between the Chinese models, maybe between a Zotye model and the Chery eQ.
B Segment (Subcompacts)
Nissan Micra
The promised EV version of the new Nissan Micra will face stiff competition next year, starting with its Renault Zoe relative, with the current Best Seller, the BMW i3, expected to receive a facelift and yet another battery upgrade, the Japanese hatch won't be able to reach these two, but it could have a small shot at stealing the Third Place from the BAIC E-Series.
C Segment (Compacts)
Toyota Prius Prime
The heart of the market will be a hard fought battleground, with plenty of new models with Best Seller ambitions, like the Chevrolet Bolt/Opel Ampera-e (After a long thought, i have decided to place it here, as it is more than just an MPV and more spacious than B-Segment cars), the facelifted Nissan Leaf, the Toyota Prius Prime...Without forgetting the Chinese outsiders (BYD Qin, BAIC EU260).
With such strong competitors, one thing is certain, whoever wins this class, will surely win also the 2017 Best Selling EV title.
D Segment (Midsize)
Tesla Model 3
The Next Big Thing, the EV that everyone is talking about, will land in 2017, but mass production will only start in the following year, so the Tesla Model 3 won't make a big impact this year. The Ford Fusion Energi will probably collect another Best Seller title in 2017, but it will have to keep an eye on the German midsizers, particularly the increasingly successful BMW 330e.
E Segment (Full Size)
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| BMW 530e |
The German Autobahn-bruisers finally grew a (Small) plug, with the recent Mercedes E350e and future BMW 530e trying to put a fight to the all-conquering Tesla Model S, but if they reach one fifth of the sales of the American, it will be a job well done.
As for the big Volvo's, the S/V90 PHEV will be happy if they beat the German models.
F Segment (Full Size Luxury)
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| Porsche Panamera |
A lot of new stuff here, we will have an upgraded Mercedes S500e, the recent BMW 740e, the new Porsche Panamera PHEV, Cadillac CT6 PHEV, the upcoming Audi A8 PHEV...
If this year the title is headed for the Mercedes, next year it will be an open question, please make your bets...
SUV / CUV
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| BYD Song EV |
After a slew of new plug-in SUV's and Crossovers in 2016, this year seems quieter, the current leaders BYD Tang and Outlander PHEV will probably be beaten by a Tesla Model X in full swing, while the important BYD Song and Yuan Crossovers will also make an impact in the class, possibly running for a Top 5 spot.
MPV / Minivans
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid
The Pacifica Hybrid has a huge sales potential, but will depend on the FCA will to sell and make it, if the oldtimer BYD e6 sustains momentum in 2017 (It has sold some 20k in '16), then the Chrysler won't reach the Best Seller status, but it should be enough to run head-to-head with the BMW 225xe Active Tourer for Second Place, all while leaving the Ford C-Max Energi out of the Podium.
LCV / Vans
Nissan e-NV200
In a segment dominated by just two models, the Renault Kangoo ZE and Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia, and with both receiving the same upgraded battery (Around 40 kWh), things should remain the same as in 2016, with both models running against each other for this class title.
Sports Cars / Convertibles
BMW i8 Spyder
After putting to shame the little competition it had over these last three years, the BMW i8 is almost synonymous with this category, for 2017 it is said to receive some upgrades, namely a 10 kWh battery, more power and the long awaited Spyder version.
Pick-up Trucks
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| Tesla Model T???? |
With the end of the Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck, of which were made some 1.000 units over a four year span, this highly profitable class is now orphan of plug-ins, with the Best Selling Electric Pick-up Truck still dating back for the Dinosaur Era (Ford Ranger EV, with 1.705 units delivered from 1998 to 2002).
It seems we all have to wait for Tesla to shake things up with a Tesla Model T in 2020...
33 kWh and heat pump for the kangoo ZE= 200 real world km range
ReplyDelete" but mass production will only start in the following year, so the Tesla Model 3 won't make a big impact this year."
ReplyDeleteWhen Tesla talk about mass production for the model 3 they are talking several hundred thousand units. I would still expect them to ship at least 50 thousand units for 2017 - good enough for #1 in its class at least.
What Tesla talks about and what they actually deliver are two separate things. Deadline for suppliers is July 2017, Elon has already said that they don't expect production to start then but delays are to be expected.
DeleteSo add another couple of months to get the last suppliers on board and for Tesla to work out if they have to do any more parts internally.
So first roll-out is not likely to be earlier than october. Then it will be in low numbers to trim in the production line with all the changes and to get a verdict from first owners and then improve the production.
If they could ramp up and produce 5k in november and 5k in december that would be amazing.
50k? Don't bet any money on that. :P I wouldn't bet on 20k either.
But don't worry, it will be #1 in its class. There are no other options in the all electric mid size premium sedan class. ;)
I don't believe so many Model 3 will be delivered, if they reach 10.000 units in 2017, it will be a success.
ReplyDeleteI guess we will have to wait for the end of 2017 to find out.
Why do you think there will be a Twingo ZE? What's your source on that?
ReplyDeleteSeveral media have mentioned it, besides, it makes sense for Renault to do it, the Smart Forfour ED is basically the same car with a different design and will be on dealerships in a few months, so it's a no brainer
DeleteIf they come, I don't think they will hit the showrooms before 2018.
DeleteJose, I don't think Twingo ZE will happen. It was a deal with smart that they will be only smart forfour ED, no competition between both twin car on that segment.
DeleteIf that is true, then Renault has shot itself in the foot, i mean, an LG 24kwh battery in the Twingo would be a great addition to the lineup.
DeleteFor someone needing an electric city car in Europe, the choices aren't that great: The Zoe is expensive and not a pure city car, the I-Miev triplets are getting old, the E-Up! is too expensive for what it is and the new Smart ED is too clownish for my taste.
But i'm still hoping the Twingo ZE shows up in the second half of the year, the European LG factory will be online by then and Renault would be just adding 2+2.
Let's see what happens.