Monday, December 26, 2016

Five Exportable EV's from China

Image result for lynk & co geely
2017/8 Lynk & Co: Chinese Plug-in made for Export

Mass exports from Chinese Auto Brands to mature markets have been hampered by Safety and Emission concerns, as well as a general prejudice regarding products coming that country.

BEV's are seen as an opportunity, because the Emission part of the equation is solved from the beginning, while Safety and Design of Chinese cars have been evolving faster than their foreign competitors, reducing the gap, so it won't be long until the best Chinese Electric Cars are head-to-head  with the best mass market EV's.

To date, Chinese EV makers haven't really bothered to export their models, because their domestic is more than enough to absorb all production, but if they did, which would be the more successful? These would be my picks.

Bare in mind that i chose only all-electric cars and eschewed the current Top Best Sellers, this a personal view and others might choose different models.


2016 byd qin ev300 - DOC671707

BYD Qin EV300 - BYD's can be seen something a bit like Chinese Teslas, with Youtube videos showing their Tang SUV's racing BMW X6's and the like, BYD is not only the largest plug-in maker in the World, but also a cool one, a rare commodity among Chinese car makers. Unfortunately, like Tesla, coolness doesn't come cheap, and this Qin EV300 costs 260k Yuan (Price before subsidies), or around 36.000 euros. Did i hear you say: "Yikes, that's a lot of money for a Chinese car!". It is, but then again, you get a lot in return: 300 kms range from a 48 kWh battery, 218 hp, 0-100 kms/h in 7.9s, nice interiors...Think of it as sort of an all-electric Chevrolet Volt and you are not far from the truth. For those that still can't get past the price and don't mind a taxi-like-appliance, BYD offers the e5 300, which is basically the same package and specs, but with a less sexy outfit, for 230k Yuan, or 31.500 eur.



geely-emgrand-ev-2016-015















Geely Emgrand EV - The owner of Volvo joined this year the EV stage with the Emgrand EV, a BYD Qin fighter, that is slightly cheaper (252k Yuan, 34.5k eur), but has also slightly less range (253 kms from a 45 kWh battery),  and despite being no slouch (120 hp, 9.9s 0-100kms/h), is significantly slower. "So, why would people buy this, if the Qin has almost the same price but better specs?" - Some might ask. The short answer is "Volvo". As mentioned before, one of the weak points of Chinese Car Makers is brand cachet, or the lack of it. If BYD has become a known entity among the plug-in niche and can start there their branding, Geely as no cred among EV followers or the general public in developed markets, but add the word "Volvo" to the mix and things start to change, with the most recent Geely models sharing technology with the Swedish brand, Geely can use that card the same way Mercedes did with the Smart brand (Mercedes tech) or Renault with Dacia. That way, customers can say to their friends, neighbors and coworkers: "Yeah, my car came from China, but it's made with Volvo parts"



chery-eq-ev-015

Chery eQ - A consistent seller in China, the funky eQ sells for 160k Yuan (22.000 Euro) before incentives and for that you get a decently equipped and sized city car, with 22kWh battery and 200 kms range, with the only drawback being the weak engine (56 hp, 100 kms/h top speed), at least by First World standards, which might put off people when thinking about some urban freeways. Add a bit more power to the engine and you could have a valuable competitor to the current crop of city EV's, as the Mitsubishi triplets are showing their age, the VW e-Up! is pricey, while the upcoming Smart Forfour ED looks too goofy (What were Smart designers smoking when did this last generation?!?).



zotye-e30-001

Zotye Zhima E30 - An intriguing mash up of BMW i3, Smart Fortwo (Previous generation) and Tesla on the inside, this butch(y) city car, looks quite nice inside and out, but Zotye will have to improve specs to have success on foreign markets, especially considering the (steep) price: 25.000 Euro. Increase the 18 kWh battery size to some 24 kWh, pulling the range north of 200 kms, and place a peppy engine (100 hp should be enough) and this tittle bugger will have specs that match its hip design and make it a success.



baic-ex200-ev-2016-003

BAIC EX200 - Ending this list without a Crossover would be ignoring probably the most significant automotive trend in China and globally, so among the rising number of BEV Crossovers made in China, i have chosen this model, the electric conversion of the Senova X25 best seller. This small Crossover (Think Kia Soul or Renault Captur) is only #19 in the plug-in ranking in China, but right now its sales potential could be hampered by the battery, the 30kWh allows only 200 kms range, if BAIC placed the 41 kWh battery of its EU260 sedan, then range would get a bump to some 250 kms and surely sales would increase significantly, more so if the engine were to be upgraded from the current 70 hp to 90/100 hp. Doing these changes and keeping price at current levels, 207k Yuan (28.500 Euro) before incentives, would transform this model in a real winner on foreign markets, especially considering the only plug-in model in that segment is the much more expensive Kia Soul EV.


Thursday, December 22, 2016

China New Models - November 2016

This month we have only one new model landing, this time coming from a foreign brand and debuting its career in China, something that speaks volumes on the importance of this market.


Image result for Cadillac CT6 PHEV in china
Cadillac CT6 PHEV - A return to what Cadillac was once known for, before the bling-bling Escalade, the CT6 is a massive rear-wheel-drive barge full-size sedan, and a handsome one at that. The PHEV version is built in Shanghai and has a similar drive unit to the successful Chevrolet Volt, but with a more powerful gas engine, with total output reaching 449 hp, allowing it to accelerate from 0-62 mph in 5.6 seconds, while claimed all-electric range is 60 kms, thanks to a 18.4 kWh battery, an important plus over the competing German PHEV's, which have half the range and make the big American sedan a usable car in EV-mode.

So, how will it translate in sales? Hard to say really, it will sell better than their German counterparts, as it is locally build, allowing it to escape the steep import tariffs and have a competitive price, so 100 units/month is a minimum level, but will it be able to reach Tesla-levels, say 700 units/month? 

While possible, i don't believe Cadillac being committed to it, the regular ICE CT6 is selling some 600 units/month in China, so it would already be positive if the PHEV version reached some 300 units/month.

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

China November 2016 (Updated)

Image result for Zotye EV's
Zotye E30, or what a 2-seater city car could look like if it had been done by  BMW i-line 

(Subsidies Derived) Record Month

The Chinese market had a record 43.441 new EV's zooming the streets in November, up 36% over last October and 56% YoY, pulling the Plug-in Market Share to a record 1.39%, above the USA (0.86%) and Europe (1.2%).

With the market share continuing to rise bit by bit, the Chinese EV market will end the year at over 350.00, pulling the total plug-in fleet to over 650.000 units, which will be the largest in the World, above the US (560k) and Europe (630k).

In November, the upcoming incentive changes reshaped the ranking, with plenty of cheap, small EV’s experiencing a surge, no doubt linked to dealership registrations, wanting to cash in on the current subsidies. 

As such, three small EV’s jumped into the Top 5, with one of them (Zotye Cloud EV) collecting the Best Seller trophy, with over 5.000 units.

Here are last month Top 5 Best Selling models:

  
Image result for Zotye Could EV
#1 – Zotye Cloud EV: One of many electric “cars” on sale in China, the Zotye Cloud EV has the advantage of offering five doors, some equipment features, like a 7-inch color infotainment system (Which is where the name comes from, “Cloud” – Get it?) and a usable range, with 150 kms, thanks to a 18kWh battery. Is this enough to explain the record 5.024 units registered in November? No, but the upcoming incentives reduction is…


Image result for Geely Emgrand EV
#2 – Geely Emgrand EV: Geely, one of the largest car makers in China, owner of Volvo and LTI, the iconic Black Cab from London, recently joined the EV Circle, selling the Emgrand EV, an electric conversion of its successful middle-of-the-road sedan, and last month was the most successful to date, with 3.799 units, allowing it to join for the first time the Top 5. With OK looks and good-but-not-outstanding specs (127 hp, 0-100kms/h in 9.9 seconds, 253 kms range from a 45 kWh Lithium battery), Geely is hoping to make a good first entry into the market, stealing sales from BYD and BAIC sedans, while the much more appealing Lynk & Co plug-ins do not arrive.


Image result for baic eu260
#3 – BAIC EU260: Beijing Auto’s new poster-child for success, the EU260 this time was down to 3.769 units, but still enough to win another podium seat, this time in Third. Sitting at the heart of the plug-in sedan market, with compelling specs (260 kms range, 0-100 kms/h in 9 seconds), this model is giving BYD sedans a run for the money and will be a strong contender for 2017.


Image result for Zotye E200 
#4 – Zotye E200: Top of the range of the two-seater-Smart-alike lineup from Zotye, this model has some impressive specs, even shaming Smart itself, with a 220 kms range coming from a 25kWh battery, 80 hp engine, 120 kms/h top speed and fast-charging possibilities, the E200 feels like a winner. Helped by the incentives boost, this model reached a record 3.500 units in November.


Image result for Chery eQ
#5 – Chery eQ: The funky little hatchback is on the rise, having beaten again Chery’s monthly record, with 3.233 units, earning its second consecutive Top 5 spot. Unlike the Zotye Cloud EV, the eQ feels more car-like, with a 22 kWh battery, 200 kms range, a 56 hp engine and suitable safety equipment (Airbags, ABS…).

Image result for 2016 chinese EV's
BYD Tang

Year-to-Date Ranking – The Legend of Zotye


With some 70(!) models on sale, the Chinese EV market is by far the most dynamic on Earth, with plenty of surprises and changes.

If the Top 3 models remained unchanged (Strangely, all in “Slow Selling” mode), the following positions saw plenty of changes, with the BAIC EU260 jumping to #4, now less than 100 units away from its smaller brother BAIC E-Series EV and with the BYD Qin in the line of sight, Beijing’s sedan will try to take away the Silver Medal from its direct competitor.

But the Climber of the Month award went to the Zotye Cloud EV, jumping to #6, thanks to a record 5.024 units, it is now the Best Selling City EV in the ranking, but with the Chery eQ also running strong and some 800 units behind, this class 2016 title is still open to discussion.

Deserved mentions for the Geely Emgrand EV, rising to #10 thanks to 3.769 sales, while in a memorable month for Zotye, its E200 city car also impressed, beating again its personal record, with 3.500 units, jumping three positions to #11, becoming the one of the surprises of the month.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the leader BYD lost 2% share, to 31%, while being the first time in years we don’t see a single BYD in the Monthly Top 5, a case of waning demand, retooling for the Lithium-equipped 2017 edition of their models, or both?

BAIC (14%) is firm in Second Place, while Zotye (11%, up 3%) secured its Third Spot, ahead of SAIC and Zhidou, both with 6% share.

An always popular debate is Tesla’s performance in China, while many commentators have classified it as a failure for not topping the sales ranking as in other markets, let’s not forget two facts:

One, domestic carmakers have 95% of the market;

Two, of the remaining 5% that’s left to foreign brands, 3% belong to Tesla, so in fact Tesla is outselling all other foreign brands in China. Combined…

And that’s despite having no local production, thus paying heavy import taxes. If that is not success, I don’t know what is.

Finally, looking at the breakdown between BEV’s and PHEV’s, unlike other markets where plug-in hybrids are winning the upper hand, all-electric cars just keep on improving share, now at 75%, up 3% regarding last month.

Pl
China
Nov.
YTD
%
1
BYD Tang
1.578
29.895
10
2
BYD Qin
1.118
21.047
7
3
BAIC E-Series EV
735
18.587
6
4
BAIC EU260
3.769
18.496
6
5
6
7
8
BYD e6
Zotye Cloud EV
SAIC Roewe e550
Chery eQ
2.069
5.024
925
3.233
18.077
14.802
14.525
14.090
6
5
5
5
9
BYD e5
2.113
13.219
4
10
Geely Emgrand EV
3.799
11.158
4
11
Zotye E200
3.500
10.941
4
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Zhidou D1 EV
BYD Qin EV300
JMC E100
JAC I EV 4
Zhidou D2 EV
Tesla Model S
Kandi K17 Cyclone
BAIC EX200
Changan Eado EV
Others
1.923
1.215
1.504
776
703
937

284
216
8.020
10.710
10.137
9.902
9.046
7.744
7.440
6.164
4.489
4.335
45.813
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
18
TOTAL Market
43.441
300.557
100

Article also published on EV Obsession and CleanTechnica

Sunday, December 18, 2016

South Korea November 2016

Samsung SM3 ZE


Hyundai Ioniq Electric Storms the Market

EV sales are on fire in South Korea, with sales doubling last year result and November setting a new absolute sales record, with 1.338 units, the first time it reaches four digits in one month, with the EV Share rising to 0.31%. 

And to think in 2014 there were 856 units registered in the whole year!

This sudden surge has much to do with the instant success of the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, which even surprised the brand itself, which expected marginal sales of the BEV version and the hybrid version to represent the bulk of sales. Turns out, the electric version is outselling the hybrid in a ratio of 3 to 1... 

To have an idea of the sales jump, last month the Ioniq smashed for the second time the monthly sales record (1.085 units), after having done so for the first time in July (574), before it, the record standed at just 201 units (Soul EV in June '15).

Looking elsewhere in the ranking, the Kia Soul EV is ahead of the Samsung SM3 ZE (The second coming of the Renault Fluence ZE), last year Best Seller, with 1.043 units.

The BMW i3 has slowed pace regarding last year (Down 12%), while the Chevrolet Spark EV ended its career with a record 99 units, its beast result since its debut in 2013.


Pl
South Korea
Nov.
        2016     %    Pl '15
1Hyundai Ioniq Electric1.0852.56557
N/A
2Kia Soul EV   e)10069216
2
3
4
5
6
Samsung SM3 ZE
BMW i3
Chevrolet Spark EV
Hyundai Sonata Plug-In   e)
103
25

5
533
183
99
96
12
4
2
2
1
3
6
N/A
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Kia Ray EV
Nissan Leaf   e)
BMW i8
Chevrolet Volt
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Audi A3 e-Tron
Renault Twizy

5

10



74
68
63
37
19
18
17
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
4
5
7
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

TOTAL1.3384.464100



Friday, December 16, 2016

Slovenia November 2016

Image result for BMW i in slovenia


BMW wins Slovenia

A total of 186 units were registered this year, which is an 81% improvement YoY, admittedly the numbers are small, so its easy to have big growth rates, but with the plug-in share now at a record 0.31%, it is the most interesting market to follow in this area of the world, with approximately double the share of their neighbors Italy (0,16%) and Croatia (0,18%).

BMW is the undisputed leader (40% Share), with the i3 shining and collecting 50 new registrations this year, beating the previous YTD record of 41 units made last year by the Renault Zoe, this year displaced to Second Place.

Looking elsewhere, despite its high price, the Tesla Model S continues to be a popular model here, having risen to #6 last month.

PlSloveniaNov.YTD%'14Pl
1
2

3
BMW i3
Renault Zoe
Volkswagen e-Golf
9
4

50
30
21
27
16
11
2
1
N/A
4
5
6
Nissan Leaf
Renault Kangoo ZE
Tesla Model S
1

2
14
13
11
8
7
6
3
7
4
7
8
9
9
BMW 330e
BMW i8
BMW X5 40e
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV


1
1
10
8
6
6
5
4
3
3
N/A
6
N/A
N/A
11
12
13
14
14
14
14
14
Smart Fortwo ED
Citröen C-Zero
Kia Soul EV
Audi Q7 e-Tron
BMW 740e
Volkswagen e-Up!
Mercedes C350e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In


1




1
5
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
N/A
7
7
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
TOTAL20186100


Source: http://www.ads-slo.org/statistika/

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Iceland November 2016



Nissan Leaf is Losing Ground


The Icelandic plug-in market continues hot as the Grjótagjá waters, with November registering 99 units, up 80% YoY, pulling the EV market share to a record 4,23%.

Looking at the models ranking, the two times winner (2013 & 14) Nissan Leaf still is ahead of the race, with 109 units (New all-time record), but a PHEV pack (Outlander PHEV, Passat GTE, Golf GTE and Volvo XC90 T8) is closing in, with the first two having real chances to displace the Japanese hatch, so December should have an entertaining race for the Best Seller trophy.

Looking at the remaining models, two luxury SUV's are shining, the Mercedes GLE500e jumped to #6, while the Audi Q7 e-Tron has struck a chord in this market, registering 12 units last month, jumping to #9 and with real chances to reach the Sixth position next month. Will we see it run for the leadership next year?

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen is leading (30%, up 1%) and preparing to win its second Manufacturers title, with Nissan (16%, down 3%) set to win the Silver Medal and Mitsubishi (13%) the Bronze Medal.

PlIcelandNov.YTD%'15Pl
1
2
3
4
Nissan Leaf
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Volkswagen Passat GTE
7
12
16
12
109
100
96
85
14
13
13
11
2
3
7
N/A
5Volvo XC90 T85669N/A
6
6
8
9
10
Volkswagen e-Golf
Mercedes GLE500e
Kia Soul EV
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
3
7
2
12
6
38
38
36
33
32
5
5
5
4
4
1
N/A
4
N/A
6
11
12
13
Audi A3 e-Tron
Mercedes GLC350e
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
4
3

28
25
13
4
3
2
5
N/A
10
14BMW X5 40e1111N/A
15BMW i3110113
15
17
17
18
20
21
21
21
24
24
Volkswagen e-Up!
Renault Kangoo ZE
Tesla Model X
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Tesla Model S
Chevrolet Volt
Mercedes C350e
Mercedes B250e
Mercedes E350e
1

3
1





1
9
5
5
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
N/A
N/A
N/A
11
8
13
N/A
N/A
N/A

TOTAL99754100

Source: us.is

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Germany November 2016

Image result for Zoe vs i3
Running neck to neck for Number One


Renault Zoe vs BMW i3

Some 2.664 plug-ins were registered last month in Germany, in line with last year result (2.676), with the EV Share at 0.74%, slightly below the 0.75% registered last year.

Looking at the November models ranking, the Renault Zoe returned to the Top Spot, with 303 units, its best result of the year (Stock clearance or were there already new 40 kWh units arriving?), followed by the BMW i3, with 291 units, down 26% over the previous month, a possible reason for this disappointing result is that BMW left its home market dry up a little, in order to dispatch as much units for Norway as possible.

In Third we have a surprise, with the BMW 225xe Act. Tourer scoring its best result ever, with 225 units, making it three consecutive months in the three digit area, this recent uptick in sales is probably due to the recent incentive scheme made by the German government.

Fourth we have the Nissan Leaf, pulling its best result (181 units) since March and proving that generous discounts can do wonders for a model performance, while in Fifth we have the VW Golf GTE, with 167 units, its best result since January, also possibly due to some nice dealership discounts...

PlModel
Sales  
1Renault Zoe303
2BMW i3291
3BMW 225xe A. Tourer225
4
Nissan Leaf
181
5Volkswagen Golf GTE167

Known for its balanced ranking and frequent position changes, the German YTD ranking didn't disappointed in November:

- The race for the Best Seller title is pretty much undecided, with the Renault Zoe and BMW i3 separated by just 135 units, a lot can still happen, but guess is that it will be a disputed race until the last days of December, with both models pushing sales to record levels;

- In the race for Third Place, the Audi A3 e-Tron seems to have the upper hand now, although the 118 units buffer still hasn't safeguarded it from the usual December deliveries peak of the Tesla Model S, but at this point i just don't see the Model S with enough strength to pull this off;

- The VW Golf GTE climbed to #5, surpassing the Kia Soul EV, that registered only 34 units, down 91% regarding October;

- The Volkswagen e-Up! had its best result in two years(!), with 109 registrations, climbing to #16, the Tesla Model X surpassed the BMW X5 PHEV, reaching #20, while the Mercedes SUV's keep on climbing, with the GLE500e up one position to #22 and its smaller brother, the GLC350e, is now #24.  

BMW (20%, up 1%) increased the lead in the manufacturers ranking, being followed by Volkswagen (16%) and Renault (15%).

PlGermanyNov. YTD%'15 Pl
1
2
Renault Zoe
BMW i3 *
303
291
2.565
2.430
11
11
6
2
3
4
Audi A3 e-Tron
Tesla Model S
158
84
1.432
1.314
6
6
5
7
5
6
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Kia Soul EV
167
34
1.269
1.263
6
6
4
1
7Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1141.25663
8Volkswagen Passat GTE1131.11459
9Nissan Leaf1811.009410
10
11
12
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Volkswagen e-Golf
Audi Q7 e-Tron
225
115
48
967
832
745
4
4
3
20
8
24
13
14
15
Mercedes C350e   e)
Renault Twizy   e)
Volvo XC90 T8 
56
20
55
634
620
612
3
3
3
13
15
28
16Volkswagen e-Up!
109
472212
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
24
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Mercedes B250e
BMW 330e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Tesla Model X
BMW X5 40e
Mercedes GLE500e
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Mercedes S500e    e)
Mercedes GLC350e
BMW i8
BMW 740e
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Renault Kangoo ZE e)
Peugeot iOn
Porsche Panamera PHEV
Citroen C-Zero
Smart Fortwo ED
Mercedes E350e
Citroen Berlingo EV e)
Others
51
38
38
63
47
25
22
15
74
16
24
41
10
25
10
4

33
5
50
415
366
339
338
328
260
259
237
237
217
184
172
135
130
129
97
78
70
50
206
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
 1
14
32
17
N/A
22
29
18
19
N/A
16
N/A
25
N/A
36
23
36
11
N/A
33

TOTAL
2.664
22.781
100



* - 181 Bev + 110 Rex 

e) Estimate

Source: kba.de