Germany July 2020

Mercedes A250e - A new star is born?

11% share! - Let the Games Disruption Begin!

If the German overall market is finally back to normal, down just 5% in July, the local plugin market is red hot right now, scoring an amazing 36,000 units performance, which not only a new record, but is 85% above the last record, made last March.

And if BEVs were up 182% YoY last month, to almost 17,000 units, PHEV registrations went though the roof, up 485%(!), to some 19,000 units , meaning that plugins as a whole that jumped an amazing 302%(!) last month, with the plugin share reaching an amazing 11% (5.3% BEV), pulling the yearly tally at 8.5% (4% BEV). 

With the recent incentive changes, the German plugin market started the second half of the year on fire, with a record month in the usually slow July, and with more record months to come (ahem, September), we may have already reached the tipping point in Germany, where disruption is visible and the status quo is changed forever, so we could see this market reach the 10% plugin share already this year, which would mean 2021 would see this market surf the steepest part of the S-Curve during that whole year.

After years asking: "Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?", we can finally say that yes, we have arrived there, so let's sit back and enjoy the Disruption show unfold before our eyes...

Back at last month Best Sellers, in July the Renault Zoe was once again the Best Seller, with a record 2,851 registrations, while the VW e-Golf success streak (or is it VW self-registrations?!? Hmmm...Discuss) continues, apparently oblivious to the imminent large volume landing of the VW ID.3 (104 units in July), with the veteran hatchback scoring a record(!) result of 2,633 registrations in July, a truly surprising and outstanding result.

Speaking of outstanding performances, below the two Top Sellers, we have three models that, each in its own way, had outstanding results in July: 

- The #3 Mercedes A250e scored 1,925 deliveries, which is the best result monthly result ever by a Mercedes model, with a usable electric range (65 kms / 40 mi WLTP range), competitive pricing (starts below 40,000€) and even fast-charging(!), expect the compact Mercedes to become a familiar face in this Top 5;

- In #4 we have the Ford Kuga PHEV, that scored yet another record performance, with 1,691 units, with Ford betting heavily on the compact SUV to comply with the 95 g/km CO2 rules, so much so, that the Dearborn maker is already offering extra 5,000€ discounts on its plugin hybrid, that added to an usable 56 kms /35 mi WLTP range, makes it incredible value for money. As the year ends, expect Ford to offer deep(er) discounts of its only plugin model, so we could see this model more often here.

- The Hyundai Kona EV registered an amazing 1,688 units last month, with the Korean Crossover benefiting from the Czech-made units to finally satisfy demand and consequently flood the German market of units, now the question is: Will Hyundai be able to beat this new high in the foreseeable future?

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Renault Zoe	2,851
2	VW e-Golf	2,633
3	Mercedes A250e	1,965
4	Ford Kuga PHEV	1,691
5	Hyundai Kona EV	1,688

Regarding the 2020 table, there's plenty to talk about, in the podium positions, the #2 Renault Zoe is now just 36 units behind the leader VW e-Golf, while the VW Passat GTE jumped to 3rd, displacing the Tesla Model 3, that went by July starved of fresh units.

Looking at August, the Renault Zoe should reach the top spot, while the VW midsizer will try to defend (and maybe increase its lead) over the Tesla Model 3, but expect the Californian to return big time by the Super-September month...

And why will September be Super? Well, a certain VW ID.3 lands, delivering some 6,000 units (wild guess) at once, landing immediately on the podium zone, possibly kicking out the Renault Zoe from the throne in December, and speaking of the Zoe, the French EV should register (at least) some 2,500 units in September, all while the Tesla Model 3 will benefit from an unconstrained end-of-quarter peak, and deliver some 2,500 units.

So, in just three EVs, 11,000 registrations. Add the rest of the market, with say, 30,000 units, and you get 41,000 units, not only a new record, but also reaching some 13% plugin share!

The PHEV race also saw big changes, with the VW Passat GTE (1,431 units, new record) becoming the new category leader, followed by the evergreen Audi A3 PHEV (1,056 units, new record!), while the previous leader Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV took a tumble, despite registering 597 units...Because in these disruptive times, with everyone pushing their limits (13 models in this Top 20 hit record performances in July), if one has just an OK performance, they will surely be surpassed...

Looking at other position changes, the little VW e-Up jumped three spots, to #6, thanks to a record 1,344 units, making 4 Volkswagen Group models in the Top 6, while the Hyundai Kona EV was up to #11, the Ford Kuga PHEV jumped 5 positions, to #14, and should climb higher in the coming months, but the Climber of the Month was the Mercedes A250e, that shooted from #20 to #12, highlighting a record month for Mercedes and the Daimler Group, that had 6 (!) models hitting record performances (A250e - 1,965 units; C300e/de - 942 / GLC300e - 619 / EQC - 295; Smart Fortwo EV - 1,209; Smart Forfour EV - 596). 

But Daimler wasn't the only OEM having record performances across its lineup, the Hyundai-Kia lineup also shined, with 5 record performances (Hyundai Kona EV - 1,688 units; Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 426; Kia Ceed PHEV - 603; Kia Niro EV - 613; Kia Niro PHEV - 347), but the most impressive of all was the Volkswagen Group, now that the giant has awakened, the German conglomerate had 8 (!!) models hitting record scores (VW e-Golf - 2,633 units; VW Passat GTE - 1,431; VW e-Up - 1,344; Audi A3 PHEV - 1,056; Skoda Citigo EV - 650; Skoda Superb PHEV - 609; Audi A6 PHEV - 472; Porsche Taycan - 346). Now about those that say that the Volkswagen EV efforts are just smoke screens...

Outside the Top 20, a reference also for the record 792 units of the BMW X1 PHEV and the 687 deliveries of the Mini Cooper EV, while the progresses of the Swedish Volvo in this market (record 397 units for the XC60 PHEV and 383 for the XC40 PHEV) seem puny next to the previous numbers. 

As plugins merge with the mainstream trends, expect more events like this to occurr, with brands big in the plugin niche to continue growing, but at a slower pace than the Big Boys.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (16%) leads the way and Audi (10%, down 1%) is the runner-up, making a 1-2 lead for the Volkswagen Group, with Mercedes (11%, up 1%) surpassing BMW (8%, down 1%) and becoming the new Bronze medalist, while the #5 Renault (8%) is already breathing on BMW's neck.

Will the French maker be able to surpass BMW in its own soil? Oh, the ignominy that would be for the Bavarians...

On a final note, the Volkswagen Group total share is now of 32% (VW - 16%; Audi - 10%, Skoda - 4%; Porsche - 2%), well above the 14% of the Daimler Group or the 12% of the Renault-Nissan Alliance. Here also, as plugins merge with the mainstream, they start to absorb the trends and tastes of the mainstream market.

Italy July 2020

Smart Fortwo EV wins July, but Renault Zoe is #1 in 2020

If the overall Italian marketis still  in the final stages of the pandemic recovery (-11% in July), the local PEV market is on fire, with sales last month up 177% YoY, to 3.690 units, a step below the record score of June (3.890), but considering the doom and gloom before it, one could hardly expect better.

With plugin sales growing fast, last month plugin share reached 2,7% (1,2% BEV), while the 2020 share climbed to 2,5% (1,5% BEV), more than doubling last year result. 

In what is traditionally a BEV-friendly market, plugin hybrids are making large strides, registering the majority of sales last month (57%), although YTD, BEVs still have the upper hand (59% vs 41%). 

It has been a long time coming, but it seems Italy is finally warming up to plugins, and with FIAT launching the new 500e in the coming weeks, we will surely see even more growth on top of the current one.

But back at July, looking at the best selling models, the Smart Fortwo EV was July's Best Seller, with 350 units, its best score in 2020, but nevertheless, the two seater EV is still far from the Zoe YTD leadership.

Other noticeable performances last month were the Volvo XC40 PHEV jumping six spots to #8, thanks to a record 302 registrations, being last month runner-up model and confirming its popularity across Europe, while the Mini Cooper EV was also up, in this case to #16.

One quirk of this market is the popularity of small cars, not only we have four small BEVs in the Top 5, but the Opel Corsa EV has also its highest standing in a major market (#9), while people that prefer larger vehicles go for SUVs, with the Tesla Model 3 being the exception confirming the rule (now, imagine how well the Model Y will sell here...).  

Renault (11%) has surpassed the previous leader Peugeot (11%), with Smart (9%) following suit, while outside the podium, we have Volkswagen (8%) and Tesla (7%) trying to reach the medals. 

 

Netherlands July 2020

 

Kia Niro EV new #1

The Dutch automotive market is out of the pandemic-related disruption, having reached positive numbers in July (+4% YoY), but if the overall market has finally recovered, the plugin category (up 139% last month) is officially in Warp Speed, thanks to 5,685 units in July, a new Year Best, pulling the YTD tally back into positive numbers (+15% YoY), thanks to over 25,000 registrations. 

This meant that the PEV Share of continues on the rise, with 16% (11% BEV) in July, pulling the 2020 PEV share to 13% (10% BEV), well above last year result (6%).

Interestingly, it is the PHEV category that is pulling the plugin train upwards, having jumped 5-fold(!) in July, to 1,815 units, its best result since December '16, while BEVs grew just 83% last month...

Looking at last month sellers, we saw an interesting race, the Kia Niro EV won last month trophy, beating on the way its personal best with a record score of 644 deliveries, while in 2nd place we have a surprise, with the MG ZS EV winning Silver, thanks to a Year Best score of 501 units, while in 3rd, we also have a kind of surprise, with the VW e-Golf scoring 488 units, a new Year Best, an amazing performance for a model said to be having just a couple more months to live. 

Outside the podium, the Volvo XC40 PHEV ended the month in 4th, with a record 402 units, being once again the Best Selling PHEV on the market, with the Swedish SUV proving its popularity in the Netherlands, which is a good sign for the future XC40 BEV.

In 5th place we have the Hyundai Kona EV, with 363 units, a new Year Best, which means that the Czech-made units of the Korean crossover are helping it to reach large volumes, so expect the Hyundai model to continue being a familiar face in the Top 5.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Kia Niro EV	644
2	SAIC MG ZS EV	501
3	VW e-Golf	488
4	Volvo XC40 PHEV	402
5	Hyundai Kona EV	363

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the big news is the Kia Niro EV replacing the Tesla Model 3 in the leadership, with the sports sedan possibly only recovering the top spot in September.

After September, it's anyone's guess, because by then there will be another big player in the market, the VW ID.3, so Q4 should see an entertaining race to follow.

Elsewhere, this time the ranking didn't had many changes, the MG ZS EV shooting up, to #7, while on the second half of the table, the Audi e-Tron jumped 3 positions, to #15, now being the Best Selling model in the Luxury category, while the BMW 330e is back at the Top 20...In #20, thanks to a year best score of 83 registrations.  

A mention also to the #12 Ford Kuga PHEV, that scored a record 227 units, confirming Ford's plugin model popularity across Europe.

Outside the Top 20, the tiny Seat Mii EV scored a record 114 deliveries, that added to the 85 VW e-Up and 191 Skoda Citigo EV, adds a total of 390 registrations in July for the Bratislava-made triplets. Who said small EVs weren't a thing?

Another model on the way up is the Opel Corsa EV, that scored a record 138 deliveries, so we could see the Opel electric model reach the Top 20 soon.

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia (14%) is the new Top Dog, distancing itself from a slowing Tesla (11%, down 3%), currently starved of fresh units.

Volkswagen (10%, down 1%) is 3rd, but #4 Volvo (10%, up 1%) is closing in and could steal VW's podium position next month.

Coming from behind, we have the #5 Hyundai (8%), that could ambition a podium seat in the near future.

South Korea July 2020

 

Tesla Model 3 leads in Korea

The South Korean plugin market is showing positive numbers (+7% YoY), with over 22.000 units, with the PEV share now at 2%.

This good performance is mostly due to the Tesla Model 3, that stole the Hyundai Kona EV leadership last March, being the new Best Selling EV from then on, although since then its market share has decreased from 45% in March, to the current 31%.

Besides being removed from the throne, the Korean crossover saw its sales drop 45% YoY, with the Czech Hyundai factory now making units for Europe, Hyundai now has more space to allocate volume to its domestic market, so if the Kona EV numbers do not increase as the year progresses, it will mean that Hyundai has a demand problem. At home.

Elsewhere, the Kia Niro EV is the new 3rd placed, having surpassed the Chevrolet Bolt. 

Finally, the Tesla sports sedan is not the only foreigner to shine, as the BMW 530e is #5 and is closing in on the #4 Chevy Bolt.

A final mention to the Hyundai Nexo Fuel Cell model, a model that is seeing its registrations jump this year, to 3.312 units, making it a success story in Korea, a unique event for a FCEV, allowing the technology to have 0,31% share of the total market, a world best for Fuel Cells.

Spain July 2020

Record Month

With fresh cash for clunkers incentives, the Spanish automotive market has recovered from the pandemic-related doom and gloom, with the market reaching a 1% growth rate in July, cutting this year sales drop to just 43% YoY. 

But because those incentives are maximized for eco-friendly vehicles, plugin sales have jumped through the roof, hitting a record month in July (3.887 units), usually one of the slowest selling months in the country...But growth wasn't the same between BEVs and PHEVs, because while pure electrics jumped 117% YoY, to 1.608 units, plugin hybrids did even better, shooting 357%, hitting 2.279 units, with the latter winning significant share (59% PHEV vs 41% BEV in July, against 53% PHEV, 47% BEV in 2020), a significant fact in a traditionally BEV-friendly market.

Share-wise, last month plugins reached 3,3% (1,4% BEV), keeping the 2020 PEV share at 3.2% (1.5% BEV).

As for last month best sellers, we had a surprising podium, with the Peugeot 208 EV winning last month Best Seller trophy, thanks to a record 255 registrations, followed by the Kia Niro PHEV (210 units, best result in 2 years), while the popular Ford Kuga PHEV closed the podium, with 191 deliveries, yet another record performance for the Ford SUV. 

In the YTD table, good news also for Ford's Kuga PHEV, that climbed to #3, stealing on the way the Best Selling PHEV and SUV trophies from the #4 Peugeot 3008 PHEV, while the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV jumped three spots, to #6, thanks to a record 174 registrations.  

But the Climber of the Month was the Volvo XC40 PHEV, that was up 5 positions, to #11, thanks to a record 172 deliveries, highlighting a great month for Volvo, that had two other models scoring record performances, with the XC60 PHEV jumping to #15, thanks to 97 units, and the flagship XC90 PHEV scoring a best ever 64 units.

But in a record month, these weren't the only models shining, the #7 Mini Countryman PHEV (139 units) had a Year Best performance, the Seat Mii EV scored a record 149 deliveries, while outside the Top 20, records were plentiful, here's the most significant: Kia Xceed PHEV (111 units), Kia Niro EV (103), Peugeot 2008 EV (99), and Mercedes A250e (84).

A reference also to the landings of the Renault Captur PHEV (152 units!) and Jeep Renegade PHEV (51), two models that should get significant traction in this market, especially the French crossover, a strong candidate to a Top 10 (Top 5?) standing.

On the manufacturers ranking, the top two positions remained stable, with Peugeot (12%) ahead, followed by Renault (9%), while Tesla (5%) lost the Bronze medal to Kia (8%), being also surpassed by Hyundai (7%) and Volvo (6%). 

Belgium July 2020

Record Month in PHEV-friendly market

In normal years, the summer months of July and August signal a slowdown in registrations, as most buyers go on holidays...Only, 2020 is not a normal year, and with the pandemic-related disruption now in the past, the Belgian automotive market (-1% YoY) is back at normal numbers, and plugins resumed the fast lane, having beaten their own sales record for two months in a row (June and July), with last month scoring a best ever score of 3.695 units, a three-fold increase over the same month last year, pulling the YTD registration numbers to 18.219 units.

July's PEV share (8,3%), pulled the 2020 PEV share to 7%, well above the 3,2% share of last year, while this market returned to its PHEV addiction, as they represented 69% of registrations last month (66% in 2020).

Last month trend in this market were compact SUVs and locally-made models, with the local hero Volvo XC40 PHEV in the intersection of both trends, winning July's Best Seller status, with 374 units, allowing it to close in on the #2 Tesla Model 3, just 13 units ahead, and the current leader BMW X5 PHEV, 255 units away, so we could see the compact Volvo reach #1 soon. 

Speaking of BMW, the recent X1 PHEV was 2nd last month, with a record 248 deliveries, allowing it to jump to #12, but the highest position change happened in #6, where the Audi e-Tron, 3rd in July with a record 182 registrations, climbed 3 positions, reaching Sixth.

Other models on the rise were Skoda Superb PHEV, up to #10, while the Ford Kuga PHEV continues its upwards trend, jumping three spots, to #14, while the Mercedes A250e joined the ranking, in #18, thanks to a record 154 units.   

In a PHEV-friendly market, another trend is also visible, with this market being tilted towards the high end of the market, as we only have one small model in this Top 20, the #4 Renault Zoe, while 70% of the models in this Top 20 belong to the D-Segment (midsize) and above.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to two BEVs that are on track to join this Top 20, with the Hyundai Kona EV scoring a record 129 units, while the Porsche Taycan performed 142 deliveries, its highest result so far.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (19%) is the clear leader, followed by Volvo (14%), with Tesla (9%) closing the podium, in Third.

The 4th placed is Mercedes (8%), looking to reach a medal position soon.

H1 2020 sales by OEM

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 19% share, followed by the rising Volkswagen Group (13%), that increased the distance to the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that lost 2% share regarding the first quarter of this year, but it is still above the 8% of last year. 

Both the #4 BMW Group and the #5 Hyundai-Kia kept their positions and both lost 1% share regarding three months ago, now having 7% share, but the balance is still positive for the Korean OEM, as they ended 2019 with 6% share.

What catches our eyes in this Top 5 is the absence of Chinese OEMs, last year we had two (BYD and BAIC), expect these OEMs to rebound in a big way in the second half of the year.

BEV

Looking only at BEVs, Tesla lost 1% share regarding Q1, but it is still 5% above the 2019 result, while the #2 Renault Nissan Alliance lost a significant amount of share in this second quarter, dropping from 13% in Q1, to the current 10%, and although is it still better than the 2019 final score (8% share), it has seen the Volkswagen Group is getting really close, now less than 1.000 units behind, although the German OEM has also lost 1% share regarding Q1, the current 10% share is double what VW Group had in 2019.

Expect the German OEM to climb to the Second Spot soon, possibly by end of Q3.

BYD is also on the rise, climbing one position to #4, while increasing its QoQ share by 1%, to 7%, but despite this recovery, the Chinese OEM is still behind last year result of 9% share.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, while comparing with last year Top 5, the Chinese BAIC and SAIC are left out, but expect SAIC to rebound soon, as the Shanghai maker has recently increased its sales (and share).