Markets Roundup June 2015

The (Pure) Electric Star

BEV vs PHEV

Many people have asked for a breakdown between plug-in hybrid and pure electric sales, here it is a small report regarding the most representative markets and their evolution since 2012.

	2015		2014		2013		2012
Market	BEV %	PHEV %	BEV %	PHEV %	BEV %	PHEV %	BEV %	PHEV %
World	62	38	62	38	57	43	50	50
USA	63	37	55	45	49	51	27	73
Japan	63	37	53	47	55	45	53	47
France	84	16	94	6	95	5	94	6
Norway	79	21	90	10	94	6	93	7
Germany	55	45	75	25	85	15	86	14
Netherlands	17	83	23	77	15	85	22	78
China	61	39	72	28	90	10	89	11
UK	36	64	54	46	78	22	67	33
Italy	82	18	91	9	89	11	97	3
Canada	73	27	58	42	51	49	30	70
Switzerland	75	25	71	29	88	12	71	29
Sweden	53	47	35	65	48	52	45	55
Belgium	47	53	69	31	75	25	79	21
Denmark	97	3	99	1	99	1	97	3

It is easy to see that for the moment pure electric are resisting quite well to the announced take over from plug-in hybrids, in fact, the rise of Tesla has been a boon for BEV's, just compare the 2012 global numbers with the current ones.

Looking closer to some markets, it is curious to see that the US market and Canada went from Volt PHEV predominant to (Tesla) BEV prevalent.

The other way around ocurred in the UK and Belgium, in 2013 three out of four plug-ins were pure electrics, now PHEV's are the best sellers in these markets.

The PHEV champion continues to be the Netherlands, with plug-in hybrids steady between 75-85% Share, while Denmark is all for pure electrics, with PHEV's only able to grasp 1 to 3% share.

Trends in the G8 

China is continuing to score record performances (12.810 units in June, 0,46% EV share vs 0,25% last year), with new cars showing up almost every month, last month the Chinese EV Market was only 103 units away from setting a new all time global monthly sales record, by the way, for the first time that the asian giant surpassed the US in the YTD sales (54.665 for China vs 54.177 for the USA).

The French market is also growing, it is now firmly above the 1% barrier, while the UK and Germany continue their way up, both with double digit growth rates.

The two EV champs, Netherlands and Norway, also had positive months, with the EV Share (5,94 % and 23,22% respectively), keep on being the envy of everyone else.

The only laggards on this club are the USA (0,64% this year vs 0,73% in '14) and Japan, the asian market is plunging to values of 2012 and there doesn't seem to exist signs of hope in the short term, if Japan was the Third largest EV Market in 2014 (And #1 in 2010), now is just...Seventh.

If the japanese EV sales continue to fall, this G8 could lose a member and change the name again to G7.

Forecasts in the G8

Early this year, i made some forecasts regarding this year, let's see how they stack up against the results in the first half of the year:

USA - 150.000 units/year, Leaf #1; 

Given sales are at 54.000 and the second half of they year has always stronger sales, i think the numbers can end up a tiny bit higher than the 130K, the original number now seems too optimistic. Tesla is #1 for now, but with the manufacturer focusing on getting the Model X just right, the Model S might get a production slowdown, which might mean that the leadership could end up on Nissan Leaf's lap;

China - 120.000 units/year, Qin #1.

Year Two for this market, sales continue to go above expectations, the montlhy numbers are now consistently above the 10K area, with new players coming in, new record sales are expected, so i wouldn't be surprised if sales passed the 130K line by the end of the year. The Best Selling Plug-In in China this year is and will be the Qin, no doubt about it.

Japan - 32.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

The second semester is usually better in the Japanese EV market, but even so, with sales around 12K, it will be hard even to be close of this forecast, the japanese EV market is losing strength and there's no one in the short term capable of lifting it up. As for models, the Leaf is some 2.000 units above the Outlander, so it has a safe margin;

Norway - 25.000 units/year, Leaf #1.

What else can we say about this market? It just keeps on pushing bounderies, year after year, month after month. With 17K sales this year, the original forecast now looks small compared to it, better to update it to some 40K. As for models, big miss here, not only the Leaf if out of the leadership, but it's down to Third, surpassed by the VW e-Golf (Leader) and the Tesla Model S (Runner-up);

France - 19.000 units/year, Zoe #1;

Sales are at 12.000 units, but with the ever-increasing sales upwards trend in France, i believe that the forecast not only will be beaten by a long shot, but the 30K hallmark is possible. Zoe is #1, of course, nothing new here;

Netherlands - 19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

A welcome surprise, with sales at 12.000 units in the first half of the month, i think the 25K area can be achieved with relative ease. The Outlander PHEV was outclassed by the Golf GTE, and it looks the trend won't change in the second half of the year;

Germany - 20.000 units/year, German Car #1;

In this Year Two of the German Electric Car, sales continue to grow at a steady pace (10.000 units this year vs 6.000 in 2014) so the 20K shoud be achievable. A surprise in the models leadership, the Outlander PHEV is leading the pack, followed by three domestic models (VW Golf GTE, BMW i3 and Audi A3 e-Tron), each of them looking to dethrone the auslander;

UK - 20.000 units/year, Outlander PHEV #1.

Another Year Two, sales continue to grow, with numbers already in the 15K area, so i wouldn't be surprised if sales reached  some 30K by the end of the year. The Mitsu Outlander PHEV continues to be the Best Seller by a long shot, doubling sales of the #2 Nissan Leaf.

Global EV Share leaders 

A year ago, i was announcing that for the first time there were five markets above the 1% EV share hallmark, now the number has risen to nine:

1. Norway - 23,22% (14,49% a year ago)

2. Netherlands - 5,94% (4,58%)
    California - 2.8% (3.2%)
3. Hong Kong - 2,58% (0,46%)

4. Sweden - 2,16% (1,52%)

5. Iceland - 2,04% (2,71%)

6. Switzerland - 1,42% (0,75%)

7. Denmark - 1,24% (0,88%)
8. France - 1,19% (0,91%)
9. UK - 1,01% (0,56%)


Besides these, EV Shares are up in Germany (0.60% vs 0.44%), Belgium (0.73% vs 0.44%), as well as Ireland (0.47% vs 0,27%) and Portugal (0,35% vs 0,25%).

There are also big EV Share dips, besides the aforementioned case of Japan, Estonia is also down sharply, this year it has just 0,35% Share, when last year ended with 1,57%. Does anybody know the reason for this sales freeze in the baltic country?