2016 Forecasts - Half Year Update

In the beginning of the year, i published some forecasts regarding 2016 that me and my partners from EV Volumes made, let's see how they are, now that we are at the middle of the year:

2016 Forecasts Jose Roland Viktor 1) World Total 850.000 850.000 N/A 2) World #1 BYD Tang Mit. Outlander PHEV N/A 3) China Total 400.000 350.000 350.000 4) China #1 BYD Tang BYD Tang BYD Tang 5) USA Total 175.000 170.000 170.000 6) USA #1 Chevrolet Volt Chevrolet Volt Tesla Model S 7) Japan Total 30.000 23.000 38.000 8) Japan #1 Nissan Leaf Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 9) Europe Total 250.000 280.000 280.000 10) Europe #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 11) Netherlands T. 27.500 35.000 35.000 12) Netherlands #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 13) Norway Total 45.000 50.000 50.000 14) Norway #1 Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf 15) UK Total 40.000 40.000 45.000 16) UK #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 17) France Total 37.500 42.000 40.000 18) France #1 Renault Zoe Renault Zoe Renault Zoe 19) Germany Total 37.500 44.000 35.000 20) Germany #1 VW Passat GTE Kia Soul EV Kia Soul EV

1) With sales at 306k, sales are up 48%, so if we multiply last year sales by 1.48, we get 812k...Not that far off, then.

2) Nissan Leaf is #1 right now, with 27k, followed by the Tesla Model S (22k), BYD Tang (19k) and Outlander PHEV(15k). But i'm still betting on the Tang, it's the model with most growth potential.

3) Sales are up 118%, so multiplying last year total by 2.18, we get 440k, which is even better than our most optimistic forecasts... 

4) BYD Tang is #1, with 19k, with the #2 (BAIC E-Series) 9k behind...Enough said.

5) The US market is growing 18%, which is leading to a 136k total number, which is 34k below expected. Then again, the Chevy Bolt  and Prius Prime might still pull the market up, right?

6) With the Model S at 11k and the Chevrolet Volt at 10k, anything can still happen here, but i must say, at this point i Viktor got it right...

7) With Japan growing 22%, they are set to a 31k total number.

8) With the Leaf at 9k and the Outlander PHEV at 4k, Nissan's hatch has 90% probability of winning the 2016 title.

9) The European EV Market is growing at a 20% rate, so the final number will be around 233k, a bit below our forecasts.

10) With the Zoe, Outlander PHEV and Leaf all around 11k, it is too early to give a sure winner, but we were expecting more from the plug-in SUV...

11) Sales are down 61%(!), so the total number should be around 10-15k, much lower than our forecasts.

12) Another big miss, right now the most likely Best Sellers are the Tesla Model S, Volvo XC90 T8 or the BMW 330e.

13) I remember we had some difficulty doing this forecast, as we were afraid to be too conservative, but with growth at just 30%, the market is going for 45k by year end, within our forecasts.

14) The VW e-Golf is still #1, but not for long, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV seems unstoppable right now.

15) The UK market is up some 30% and headed to some 38k, now let's see how Brexit impacts the EV Market...

16) The Outlander PHEV will be #1 with 80% certainty, but the Mercedes C350e might still surprise.

17) The French EV market is up a healthy 53%, leading to some 42k, a win to Roland's forecast.

18) Renault Zoe has 7k, the #2 Nissan Leaf has 2k. 

19) Looking just at the growth rate (8%), it this market would go for some 30k, but incentives kicking in, expect a tidal wave of registrations, so the 44k of Roland seems perfectly possible.

20) Quite frankly, anything can happen, as nobody knows who will benefit most from the incentives, but my bet now would be the BMW i3, currently #2 and receiving new batteries just in time for the new incentives.