Leaf starts in the lead
PEV Sales were up a solid 27% in January, to 4.699 units, despite the PHEV slump (-17%), but thanks to the BEV brilliant performance (3.401 units, +60% YoY), things are looking good, leading to a large BEV (38%) and PEV (52%) shares, and this is still without the Tesla Model 3 volume deliveries, when it does land numbers will be even more outlandish, possibly even reaching 80% share!
In this context, seeing Norway get some 80% PEV share, with peak months possibly reaching 90%, should be possible, effectively meaning Game Over for ICE in this market.
The fuels mix now shows BEVs well above everyone else (38% share), followed by gasoline (19%) and diesel (17%), while PHEVs (14%) and HEVs (11%) are both down 17% YoY, as their sales are too are being absorbed by the BEV black hole effect.
Looking at the 2019 ranking, there aren't significant news on top, with the Nissan Leaf starting 2019 where it ended 2018, in the lead, but this time the VW e-Golf and BMW i3 are much closer, so the race for the runner-up spot should be interesting.
Interestingly, there are 7 BEVs in the Top 9 spots, which says a lot on where the market is going...
Elsewhere, the Korean nameplates started the year with a strong pace, with the Hyundai Ioniq Electric in #5, with 347 units, while its younger sibling Kona EV was #6, with a record 325 units, and even the runnout-mode Kia Soul EV was #12 in January, while the #18 Kia Niro PHEV made a quartet of Korean models on the Top 20.
Proof of the BEV mommentum is the Jaguar i-Pace reaching #14, thanks to 79 units, while another long range BEV, the Opel Ampera-e, returned to the Top 20, in #16, but the most surprising return was the VW e-Up!, that started the year in #13, thanks to 80 deliveries. What a price reduction can do to a model career…
In the manufacturers ranking, BMW started in the lead (18%), being closely followed by Volkswagen (17%), while the 2018 winner Nissan was down to Third, with 15% share, with a short 10 units lead over the #4 Hyundai.
Models breakdown by Fuel Source
The plug-in market continues to merge with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have three BEVs in the podium, followed a balanced mix of plugins, with 3 BEVs and 2 PHEVs, but the telling story is that the Best Selling HEV (Toyota C-HR) was only #8, with the remaining Top 10 hybrids (Toyota RAV4 and Yaris) ending behind it.
With regular ICE models (again) wiped out from the Top 10, and the Best Selling HEV only #8, will we see a 100% plug-in Top 10 soon? Let's say...March?
We just need to add the Tesla models…
I am not so confident about the success of Model 3. In my view it is a sports car for people who do not want to pay 100k for a sports car. For average people Model 3 is of little use in everyday life.
ReplyDeleteI agree, with only AWD versions available, the Model 3 is still way too expensive.
DeleteThe three PHEV in the top 10 are model types that don't have a BEV competitor. I think their present is more a statement about lacking BEV models in those market segments than about the popularity of the PHEV concept.
ReplyDeleteWe really need a lot more models, and models in all market segments. This year will see a dozen new models enter the market. The bigger choice is probably doing more for the BEV growth than just the Model 3.
Good point.
DeleteEver increasing numbers in leading Norway, with PEV type share above anything else.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction will be HEV share increasingly dropping to 7-9%, diesel share platooning at 15%, gasoline in the range of 13-15% and PHEVs accounting for 12-13% by the end of the year (47% BEV and 13% PHEV shares). Interesting fact that at the moment, the top3 most sold vehicles are long time original designs (2010/2017, 2013/2017 and 2013/2018) and more telling (maybe) the fact that fast-charge capable cars mean more chances to reach top selling positions (6 top positions), then PHEVs or proprietary charging protocols start to come into account since in nordic countries, plug availability and the long time customary habit of plugging-in a vehicle is already familiar to many and hence why I predict PHEV will still remain relevant in this market for a long time.
Talking about Tesla models, it looks like the Osborne effect Model 3 has sucked the Model S into the black hole already.
valid points, thanks!
DeleteDo you have any information about the mainstream market, is down or up?
ReplyDeleteDown
Deleteyep, -2.2%
DeleteThat table proves that VW is evil :D
ReplyDelete:D
Delete(Had the same thought, when i saw last month eGolf sales)
But hey, now with the MEB program, they are on the righteous path...Will the past sinner VW be a future saint?
Once they get started they will come out best from all the German manufacturers.
DeleteLook at the weak EQC and how about BMW future plans. By 2022 VW will be the leading EV manufacturer at least in Germany.
Worldwide, who knows?
You numbers are incorrect according to:
ReplyDeletehttps://elbilstatistikk.no/
Because if you subtract the FEB YTD from the Feb sales you don't get these numbers which you have posted.
That website includes second hand registrations, on EVS we count only first time registrations.
DeleteNot even 37 Model S in Norway, is that true? Cant see it in the Top20.
ReplyDeleteIs this due to M3?
Yep, the Model 3 blackhole effect is making its first victims.
DeleteJosé, Norway numbers for February would be useful to answer to this article: https://insideevs.com/germany-biggest-ev-market-europe/.
ReplyDelete