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Tesla Model 3 Tsunami (German edition)
After a great start of the year, the German PEV passenger car market continued on the right track in March, up 42% to 9,677 registrations, with BEVs growing at a fast pace (+75% YoY), while PHEVs remain flast (+1%).
With the mainstream market stagnated (-1%), the PEV Share climbed to 2.8% in March, with BEVs alone hitting 1.9%.
Looking at March Best Sellers, there was a Tesla Model 3 deliveries tsunami (where have i heard this one before?), with 2,224 units being registered, just the best score ever by a plugin in German territory, while the previous leader, the Renault Zoe, despite losing the top spot, is also reaching record results, having delivered 1,136 units last month.
In fact, the Tesla Model 3 arrival in Germany is following the trend that we are seeing elsewhere in Europe, instead of the Californian drying up sales of other EVs, like in the US, here it is helping other EVs to reach new heights, thanks to increasing the visibility of electric cars, as we can see with the #3 BMW i3 hitting a record 770 deliveries, or even the evergreen Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV selling 693 units, a new record for any PHEV.
So, in the same month, both the BEV and PHEV records were beaten. Nice!
So, in the same month, both the BEV and PHEV records were beaten. Nice!
But the surprise of the month came in #6, with the Audi e-Tron registering 478 units, with the German maker now fulfilling the long waiting list for its new BEV model. Will we see it often here? If they find enough batteries, i guess we will...
Pl
|
Model
|
Sales
|
1
|
Tesla Model 3
|
2224
|
2
|
Renault Zoe
|
1136
|
3
|
BMW i3
|
770
|
4
|
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV
|
693
|
5
|
BMW 225xe A.Tourer
|
486
|
The German PEV market is known for close races and constant changes, and last month was no exception, first of all, the Tesla Model 3 jumped from 4th to the yearly leadership, while the Best Selling PHEV, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, climbed to 4th, surpassing the VW e-Golf, that seems to be starting to be in sunset-mode.
Both the BMW Group and the Daimler Group had reasons to smile about, besides the aforementioned good results of the BMW i3 and 225xe A. Tourer, the BMW 530e climbed one spot to #11 and the Mini Countryman PHEV was up to #12, while we have one Mercedes nameplate joining the Top 20, with the Mercedes E300e/de PHEV jumping to #16, thanks to 225 deliveries, the
Outside the Top 20, we should mention the record 106 deliveries of the Jaguar i-Pace and the surprising 130 registrations of the Porsche Panamera PHEV, with the German Sports Sedan now apparently recovered from the WLTP-trauma and back in the fast sales track.
In the brands ranking, BMW (17%, down 2%) is still the leader, but now has Tesla in the rear view mirror, with 16% share, ahead of the #3 Renault (12%), while the #4 Hyundai (7%, down 2%) is now ahead of Volkswagen (6%, down 3%), that dropped to 5th.
Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition
Pl
|
Model
|
Sales
|
1
|
Audi A4
|
5,584
|
2
|
Mercedes C-Class
|
4,941
|
3
|
BMW 3-Series
|
4,014
|
4
|
Tesla Model 3
|
2,224
|
5
|
Audi A5
|
1,971
|
One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?
The answer is now starting to be written, comparing the Model 3 deliveries against its midsize premium competitors, we can see that the local heroes are still significantly ahead, although the Audi A5 behind the Tesla.
Also interesting to see, is that it seems the BMW 3 & 4-Series are the models most affected by the current Model 3 fever, which could be explained by the type of drivers we are seeing in the current European Model 3's, as they are significantly younger than those of the Model S, and it's the kind of drivers we were used to see in brand new BMW M3 and M4's or high-end 3/4 Series, devouring kms at the hands of the Ultimate Driving Machine like if there was no tomorrow.
One thing is certain, BMW will have a hard time to regain these drivers, maybe not even a PHEV M3 & M4 will be enough…
One thing is certain, BMW will have a hard time to regain these drivers, maybe not even a PHEV M3 & M4 will be enough…
In order to see at which point of the growth cycle a model stands, I have calculated the internal growth rate (sales divided by historical sales). Best in this list is the Audi etron 15% growth, second Jaguar iPace and then Model 3 10%.Model X and Model S are already in a very mature stage of the growth cycle at just 0.01 % and 0.5% growth.
ReplyDeleteThat is a flawed approach though. Even if a model doubles its sales year over year, it can be at 0.1% according to your calculations because it is on the market for a long time period.
DeleteWhile another model which has not grown at all or even reduced its delivery count year over year can reach as much as 5-7% if sales were constant for a year and it was only introduced 12 months ago.
And a very new model would get 50% if it delivered the exact same amount three months in a row.
This means your metric is heavily subject on the time scale. Try using quarterly or yearly numbers for example rather than monthly. It will result in very different numbers.
You did not understand my approach. It is the monthly sales number divided by all historical sales. This ensures to find out at which point a product is in its product cycle. Audi etron, Jaguar iPace and Model 3 are in an early stage of the growth, yet Model X and Model S are at the end of the growth.
DeleteFrom the posted data, Q12019 standings are:
ReplyDelete1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 5131 registrations
2nd BMW Group with 4475 registrations
3rd Tesla with 3445 registrations
4th Kia-Hyundai with 2565 registrations
5th Volkswagen Group with 2286 registrations
Humm, Tesla attracting BMW M3/M4 drivers? With less than 10,000 units sold annually in the recent years, surely Tesla has better getting other type of population attracted into it, otherwise these people aren't going to pay many Fremont bills. If my experiences are any representative, it looks like Tesla is attracting a lot of Nissan Leaf and self-discharging Toyota hybrid crowds. I even happen to know one person that got fed up of so much waiting that went ahead with an e-Golf purchase, in is own words, overall better fit and finish and better paint quality. Interesting, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteThe Model 3 plays in quite a different league than a Leaf or e-Golf... While there is cross-shopping no doubt simply because of the small selection of decent EVs available, in general the EV market is not a zero sum game: every desirable new model attracts additional converts from combustion cars. In the US, the vast majority of Model 3 buyers are coming from combustion cars, not from other EVs -- and I see no reason to believe that to be different over here.
DeleteWith only the dual motor and performance variants having been available thus far, I think it's reasonable to assume that quite a lot of buyers are coming from M3 or other 3-series. (Though there are likely also many people selling up from a Prius or other non-premium combustion cars, if the US is anything to go by -- especially now that the base model is available for order...)
There is indeed a bunch of anecdotal evidence of BMW fans defecting to the Model 3 -- though of course that doesn't tell us much about statistical significance...
e-Golf entering sunset mode? I remember you suggesting the same thing half a year ago... :-P
DeleteWith all that talk about a vastly superior successor coming early next year, certainly some demand depression is to be expected due to Osborne Effect -- but with growing interest in EVs in general, and for a model that has been supply-constrained not long ago (maybe still?...), I wouldn't expect a drastic drop in demand. Such sudden monthly fluctuations are surely just a result of market allocations?...
I feel some of you are just cheering too much the team: new models coming into market always attract "noise" and noise are for example, people that are always looking for the latest and greatest new vehicle, people that need to get into a new vehicle for whatever reason their level in life requires and people that get seduced by the proposition. Not all that people will stay in true love with those cars in 3 to 4 years down the line, those will switch to a new one in 1 year or 2, or even less. And I keep seeing references to USA even when the subject is Europe, Asia or any country in particular. Is that a great measuring tool or does is make any meaningful? See, General Motors sells a lot in the USA, Ford sells a lot in USA, even Toyota sells a lot in the USA, do you know how much Honda sells in the USA? Honda struggles to sell just 150,000 vehicles Europe wide. Is there any valuable inferences from the USA that translates into Europe when we refer to Honda?, if so, why do some of you guys keep doing it regarding Tesla? Do you know how a Tesla can make great sense when the nearby Tesla service center is nowhere to be found, you wil need to show a VIN in order to get access to order parts, Tesla own Superchargers are far way above 120 miles from where you are, Tesla cars do not accept three phase 32A AC charge and it just happen to exist more than 2 Mercedes-Benz or BMW workshops less than 10 miles from you?
DeleteI have been buying BMW parts without the need to show any VIN or vehicle ownership titles, why it must be needed?
And yes, lots of Nissan Leaf owners moving into Tesla either used Model S or newer Teslas including Model 3.
The vast majority of European EV models don't accept 32 A AC (i.e. 22 kW) either. Most are limited to 11 kW (including the new models from Audi etc.), and some even only have 7 kW single-phase AC. (I-Pace for example.) Only models that don't have DC charging (Zoe) rely on higher AC rates.
DeleteApart from that, I'm not sure what your point is. Sure, not everyone is happy with Tesla's policies -- but how is that supposed to say anything about the validity of making assumptions about where European Model 3 buyers come from vs. where US buyers come from?...
Of course some people move from one EV to another: but those wouldn't explain the market doubling every two years -- so *obviously* most buyers must be new to EVs.
A great deal of attraction the Zoe and Smart EQ models get, comes from the fact they allow 22kW AC charging. And the e-tron can be obtained with 22kW AC charging, as well as the Mercedes-Benz EQC and the future Porsche Taycan.
DeleteI think it is still way too early to judge the real impact of the Model 3 arrival in Germany and Europe in general. Keep in mind that most EVs in Europe are back-ordered 6 months or more. So whatever sales we are seeing right now is for models that were ordered 6+ months ago. The true impact of the Model 3 will only be visible closer to the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteNow the the SR variant is available as well the race is definitely on. Once back orders are filled the Model 3 should have way shorter delivery times than most other brand's models, so that alone might entice people to order it. It will be interesting to see the numbers at the end of the year.