Netherlands November 2019

Tesla Model 3 dwarfs the competition

The Dutch PEV market is back at year-end-rush mode, doubling sales in November, to 7,205 registrations, translating into a PEV Share of 18% in November, and pulling the 2019 PEV share to a record 11% share.

With the incoming fiscal changes on January 1st reducing the benefits of EV ownership, the last months of 2019 are seeing another demand peak in this market, that interestingly enough, has been profited by the different OEMs in various degrees:

- Tesla has received thousands of orders in a short time, so it had do some allocation engineering, starving the remaining European markets (UK and Ireland being the exception), in order to satisfy the demand peak, hence the outlandish 3,973 units registered in November, with December possibly witnessing an out-of-this galaxy record (do i hear 6,000? More?);

- Hyundai and Kia continue battery constrained, but because they were already planning to starve most European markets in the last months of 2019, because of the upcoming EU CO2 rules, they had enough units to provide some extra deliveries in the Netherlands, allowing the Kona EV to be #2, with 535 units (best result since January), the Niro EV to end  the month in 3rd, with 425 registrations, a new record in this market, and even the Ioniq Electric ended the month in #5, thanks to 277 units, its best score in 22 months;

- Nissan also pulled a good result last month, with 418 units, a new year best, allowing it to end the month in #4, although i guess here the limitations aren't either in batteries or product allocation, but demand itself;

Looking at other EV model results, while some are also experiencing demand peaks, like the BMW i3 (262 units, new year best), the Opel Ampera-e (wait, what?!?), with the US-Korean-German model scoring a record 155 registrations, or even the Tesla Model S & X, that registered new year highs, others either can't (production constrained Renault Zoe, demand constrained Jaguar i-Pace) or won't (VW e-Golf, Audi e-Tron).

The Volkswagen Group model results are interesting, because while they are florishing elsewhere, they are not surfing the current wave in this market.

This seems to be part of a larger strategy by the German maker, as 2020 will be Year Zero of their Plan to Rule the (EV) World, so among the major European EV markets, they seem to focus on Germany, (soon-to-be) the largest EV market in Europe, and where the VW e-Golf still hasn't managed to win a Best Seller trophy, and in Norway, where the German brand was the Best Selling Plugin Maker for four year in a row, but was now overturned by Tesla, thus discarding France (Renault country), and the Netherlands (Tesla country), while leaving the UK for a later stage.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	3,973
2	Hyundai Kona EV	535
3	Kia Niro EV	425
4	Nissan Leaf	418
5	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	277

Looking at the 2019 ranking, the most important change was the Nissan Leaf climbing to 4th, relegating the VW e-Golf to #5, while the revised Hyundai Ioniq Electric was up to #8.

On the lower half of the Top 20, the Opel Ampera-e was up one spot, to #11, while the Jaguar i-Pace climbed to #15, and to finish a series of BEV climbs, both the Tesla Model S and the X jumped two positions, with the first jumping to #17, with the second ending the month in #18.

Outside the Top 20, a mention for the new BMW 330e, that registered 48 units, and with the German midsizer just 50 units behind the #20 Smart Forfour EV, the BMW model could still join the ranking in December.

A final reference to Shanghai Auto's MG eZS crossover, with 48 registrations last month, the British accented, but Chinese born model, is shaping up to become the first Chinese EV to sell in significant volumes in Europe.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (43%, up 3%) is the clear leader, followed by Hyundai (14%), while the other Korean, Kia (8%, down 1%), is in the last place of the podium, ahead of BMW (7%), Nissan and Volkswagen (both with 6% share).

Overall Ranking

Pl	Model	2019 Reg.
1	Tesla Model 3	17,858
2	VW Polo	12,565
3	Ford Focus	9,954
4	Kia Niro	8,564
5	VW Golf	8,472

You might have read plenty of articles about how the Tesla Model 3 is kicking ass butts in The Netherlands, but to what extent is that showing in the overall market? 

Well, it's not only by far the Best Selling Plugin in the country, but also in the overall market, where the Tesla midsizer has a 5,000 units lead over the #2 VW Polo.

Interestingly, in the Top 5 there are two more electrified models, with the Kia Niro (37% BEV, 1% PHEV and 62% HEV) in #4, and the VW Golf (30% BEV) in #5. Not bad, eh?

Midsize Car Best Sellers

Pl	Model	Nov. Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	3,979
2	BMW 3-Series	570
3	Volvo S/V60	326
4	Mercedes C-Class	255
5	Audi A4	162

The Tesla Model 3 is the undisputed leader in the midsize car segment, with the electrified BMW 3-Series (35% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) in Second, but far, far, FAR, behind. 

The Volvo twins S/V60 are in 3rd, with 326 units, but have a low degree of electrification, with just 13% of sales belonging to their PHEV versions.

Finally, we have the unplugged Mercedes C-Class and Audi A4 outside the podium,  and while Mercedes doesn't seemed interested in launching their PHEV versions here, that could soon change if the upcoming PHEV midsizers (VW Passat GTE, Skoda Superb PHEV, Peugeot 508 PHEV...) start to gain traction. I wouln't be surprised if sometime in the first half of next year, all of the Top 5 became electrified.

Midsize SUV Best Sellers

Pl	Model	Nov. Sales
1	Mercedes GLC	270
2	Volvo XC60	151
3	Mitsubishi Outlander	136
4	BMW X3	112
5	Jaguar i-Pace	88

This SUV category is also being quickly electrified, although the unplugged Mercedes GLC sits at the top (for how long?), the electrified Volvo XC60 (33% of sales belonged to the PHEV version) is 2nd, with 151 units, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was 3rd last month, with 136 units (86% of all Outlander registrations), and the fully electric Jaguar i-Pace shows up in #5.

With the #4 BMW X3 said to be having a PHEV version soon, we could see a fully electrified Top 5 sometime next year. Not bad, eh?

Full size Car Best Sellers

Pl	Model	Nov. Sales
1	BMW 5-Series	209
2	Mercedes E-Class	128
3	Tesla Model S	69
4	Audi A6	63
5	Volvo S/V90	58

If the midsize SUV is getting electrified fast, even without the Tesla Model Y and VW ID.4x, in the full size car category, things are less advanced, while only the Audi A6 remains unplugged, only the fully electric Tesla Model S has a large degree of electrification, while the #1 BMW 5-Series (22% of registrations belong to the PHEV version) and the #5 Volvo S/V90 twins (16%) have a moderate degree of electrification, although still well above the Mercedes E-Class, that only has a 2% electrification rate.

The Porsche Taycan  will be a welcome addition to this category...

Full size SUV Best Sellers

Pl	Model	Nov. Sales
1	Audi e-Tron	168
2	Tesla Model X	68
3	Porsche Cayenne	58
4	Volvo XC90	52
5	BMW X5	40

The full size SUV category seems to be the most advanced segment when it comes to electrification, not only we have 2 BEV nameplates in the top two positions and a fully electrified Top 5, but the #4 Volvo XC90 already has 75% of its registrations coming from its PHEV version, and while the Porsche Cayenne only has 2% of electrification rate, expect it to grow significantly in the coming months.

Add this to the fact that the #5 BMW X5 (18% of registrations are PHEVs) is ramping up production of its interesting PHEV version, and the electrification rate should only go higher!

And don't forget the incoming Mercedes GLE PHEV, with 100 kms electric range and fast charging is also coming soon!

These are surely welcome news in one of the most polluting vehicle segments.