USA September 2017

Tesla Model 3

Chevrolet Bolt starts to win traction

September 2017 saw 21.282 units being registered (New year best), with the YTD EV Share steady at a record 1.1%, thanks to over 142.000 units registered in 2017, sales are up 30% this year, and still without the Model 3 bonus deliveries (Tesla new baby delivered only 115 units last month, less than expected), the US market is headed for a record year, with December possibly surpassing the 250.000 units landmark.

Good news for the Chevrolet Bolt, with yet another record, with 2.632 units, with nationwide availability starting to pay off, having been Third in September, only behind the Tesla models. This performance has allowed it to reach the trio ahead of it, and with the Second Placed Chevy Volt only some 1.000 units ahead, it could be that next month GM's small BEV jumps all the way up to the Silver Medal.

In a stable ranking, the most notable change was the position change between the Tesla Model X and Toyota Prius Prime, with the Sports-SUV-MPV-Falcon Door-Thing now in Third, dropping the Japanese Manga-Terminator-Hatchback-Thing to Fourth. With October being a slow selling month in Tesla-land, expect it to drop once again to Fourth.

The other major change was the BMW 530e jumping to #17, thanks to 511 registrations last month, only 29 units short of becoming the Best Selling BMW last month(!).

In the manufacturers ranking, the leader Tesla (25%, up 3%) has distanced itself from the Second Placed Chevrolet (21%), but the race for Third place is heating up, with Ford (11%) resisting (For how long?) to Toyota (Also 11%), with the Japanese company cutting short the distance by 300 units last month, now standing at only 309, will we see Toyota make the assault to Ford's fort next month?

Pl	USA	Sep.	YTD	%
1	Tesla Model S e)	4.860	19630	14
2	Chevrolet Volt	1.453	15348	11
3	Tesla Model X e)	3.120	15290	11
4	Toyota Prius Prime	1.899	15056	11
5	Chevrolet Bolt	2.632	14302	10
6	Nissan Leaf	1.055	10740	8
7	Ford Fusion Energi	763	7.285	5
8	Ford C-Max Energi	683	6.612	5
9 10	Fiat 500e BMW i3	375 538	4.765 4.635	3 3
11	BMW X5 PHEV	333	3.259	2
12	BMW 330e	329	2.994	2
13 14 15	Volkswagen e-Golf Audi A3 e-Tron C. Pacifica PHEV	187 85 475	2.699 2.552 2.432	2 2 2
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25	Hyu. Sonata PHEV BMW 530e Kia Soul EV Ford Focus electric Volvo XC90 PHEV Por. Cayenne PHEV Kia Optima PHEV Mercedes C350e Mercedes S550e Mercedes B250e Others	190 511 255 131 236 124 228 126 35 87 284	1.995 1.598 1.536 1.468 1.450 1.440 930 738 602 543 519	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
	TOTAL	21282	142471	100

 e) Estimate

Source: insideevs.com; goodcarbadcar.com


Tesla Model S & Others

Pl	Model	Sep. Sales
1	Tesla Model S e)	4.860
2	BMW 5-Series	3.718
3	Mercedes E/CLS-Class	1.433
4	Audi A6	1.210
5	Cadillac CTS	1.059

Looking at the E-Segment/full-size vehicles, Tesla did the rare feat of beating both the Mercedes E/CLS-Class and BMW 5-Series and become the best selling model, thanks to a year best month, which coincided with a particularly weak month from the Mercedes duo (Down 70% YoY). Not that the A6 (-25%) and the CTS (-30%) can be all too happy with that...

Reasons for these deep dives? SUV-Craze and Tesla sucking more and more customers coming from regular models. 

This performance is particularly interesting as it seems that the Model 3 final reveal and first deliveries not only didn't hurt the Model S sales, but actually helped them.

Well, if i could, i would also prefer to buy a Model S instead of the Model 3...But i digress.

But September is a peak month for Tesla, so it is easy to get carried away from these results, more important are the full year numbers, and here they are:

Pl	Model	2017 Sales
1	Mercedes E/CLS-Class	36.511
2	BMW 5-Series	28.517
3	Tesla Model S e)	19.630
4	Audi A6	11.777
5	Mercedes S-Class	10.673

Here is the real standing of the Tesla Model S, comfortable in its Bronze Medal, behind the BMW and Mercedes Best Sellers. Not bad for a BEV-only model that is five years old, isn't it, Model X?


Tesla Model X & Others

Pl	Model	Sep. Sales
1	Mercedes GLE	4.583
2	BMW X5	3.975
3	Audi Q7	3.538
4	Tesla Model X e)	3.120
5	Volvo XC90	2.993

The Tesla Model X delivered 3.120 units, its best result this year, allowing it to reach the Top 5 in its class, but in YTD sales, the Tesla SUV is still in Sixth, with 15.290 units, far from the 39.000 units of the leader Mercedes GLE and significantly less than the 19.630 deliveries of its five year old brother, the Model S.

Tesla Model 3 & Others

Pl	Model	Sep. Sales
	Toyota Camry	34.732
	Mercedes C-Class	6.194
	BMW 3-Series	6.094
	BMW 4-Series	3.637

The Tesla Model 3 is still on its early stages of production, basically the new ones are still Beta units, but with volume numbers only a couple of months away, it is time to see what kind of competition the "3" is up against.

Taking as a given that the Model 3 will have a larger impact in its class than the Model X is having in the Luxury SUV class (It's not that hard, right?), we should then benchmark it with the Model S place in the market, meaning, Third Place behind the BMW and Merc best sellers.

With the C-Class and 3-Series running at around 6.000 units/month, i believe they will be easy targets for the Tesla model, but if we add the 4-Series to the 3-Series sales, and there's good reasons for doing it, as basically they are the same car, but with the 4-Series wearing a more sporty outfit, then we have some 10.000 units/month, a more interesting target to beat.

Once in full production mode, I believe the Model 3 will be able to reach and surpass that sales level, thus becoming the Best Selling Premium midsize car.

Some have even said that the mainstream midsize car market will be won the the Model 3. 

Well...I doubt it. The current leader, the Toyota Camry, runs at around 34.000 units/month, which is higher than what i think the Model 3 will deliver in the US in its peak production (25.000/month). But who knows, stranger things have happened!

(Insert Trump joke here)