Month 2 before the (TM3) Flood: Tesla Model 3 wins May's Best Seller award in the midsize category
Over 24,000 plug-in units were registered last month in the USA, a 48% increase YoY, pulling the 2018 count now to 100,000 units, and the 2018 PEV share to a record 1.7%. Will we see the PEV share cross 2% before Q4 Q3?
The leader Tesla Model 3 was on the headlines once again, with the production ramp up allowing it to deliver 6,250 units, not only a new all-time record for a single model, but also pulling Tesla's new baby to the leadership of the Premium D-Segment (Midsize class), all fuels included. That's right, the Model 3 outsold in May the Mercedes C-Class, BMW 3-Series...But more on that below.
The Second Placed Toyota Prius Prime also broke its personal best, albeit by just two units, allowing it to consolidate its runner-up status, so it seems that the first two places of the podium are already given, with 7 months to go.
The Second Placed Toyota Prius Prime also broke its personal best, albeit by just two units, allowing it to consolidate its runner-up status, so it seems that the first two places of the podium are already given, with 7 months to go.
Looking elsewhere, the Tesla Model X recovered the Fourth Spot, making three Teslas in the Top 4, while the Nissan Leaf reached 1,576 units, the nameplate best result in 3(!) years, with the production now at full charge and plenty of inventory, one wonders when will the Japanese hatchback beat its all-time record (3,186 units, in August '14).
Speaking of positive results, they were abundant this month: Besides the aforementioned models, the Honda Clarity PHEV has once again beaten its personal record (1,639 units), the BMW 530e had a year best (729 units), allowing it to climb to #11, the Audi A3 e-Tron also recorded a new Year Best (267), climbing to #16, while the Volvo XC60 PHEV joined the Top 20, in #19, thanks to a record 214 sales.
Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (32%) is high above the competition, with Chevrolet (14%) in the runner-up place, and Toyota (12%) not far from the GM brand, while BMW is Fourth, with 10%, up 1%.
 |
| Source: InsideEVs |
Tesla Model 3 & Others
Pl
|
Model
|
2018
Sales
|
1
|
Mercedes C-Class
|
23,917
|
2
|
BMW 3-Series
|
20,629
|
3
|
Tesla Model 3
|
18,305
|
4
|
Infiniti Q50
|
16,526
|
5
|
Acura TLX
|
14,600
|
Looking at the midsize vehicles, in May the Tesla Model 3 was the Best Selling nameplate, with over 6,000 deliveries, beating the Mercedes C-Class, with 5,500. With deliveries expected to go into 5 digits soon, the Tesla midsizer will have this class leadership in the bag for a long time, so the YTD leadership should fall for Tesla in July, and stay with it for years and years.
Another question is if the Model 3 can reach the top places in the mainstream midsize car class, currently in the hands of the Toyota Camry, with 30,000 sales last month and 151,000 this year.
Given that the mainstream market is more price-sensitive, the Model 3 can only aspire to play in this league on a monthly basis, if the $35,000 Short Range version comes alive and is made on a large scale.
So, maybe in 2019? 2020?
Tesla Model S & Others
Pl
|
Model
|
2018
Sales
|
1
|
Mercedes E/CLS-Class
|
20,005
|
2
|
BMW 5-Series
|
16,857
|
3
|
Tesla Model S
|
8,070
|
4
|
Lincoln MKZ
|
7,851
|
5
|
Mercedes S-Class
|
7,269
|
Looking at the full-size vehicles, nothing really new here, the top two continue in their usual positions, with the Model S keeping the Bronze Medal.
If Model 3 soon gets to sell 15,000 and more a month, it will hold the first place with a huge difference with the second that the Nissan Leaf 2 will probably get
ReplyDeleteI have much respect for what you do but you are given too much credit to Tesla. What we are seeing with the model 3 is sales that we might have seen over 2, 3 or even 4 years be squeezed into 1-2 years So while we will see a burst of units being moved over the next few months, this will die down going into Q4 2018, Q1 2019. Tesla has even admitted that net reservations for the Model 3 have been around 455,000 since August of 2017 and only about 40-45% of these are from the US. We saw that article come out the other day saying that almost ¼ of Model 3 reservations in the US have been refunded.
ReplyDeleteI expect this number to grow and with Tesla supposedly going to be producing 5,000 model 3s a week or 20,000 a month reservations will dry up very quickly thus going into Q2 of 2019 Tesla will only be moving 1000-2000 Model 3s a month in the US. This will cause the Model 3 to drop from the number 1 after 6 months or so and fight to stay in the top 5 each month. Just my two cents.
The good thing about Tesla is that it has very soon built a relatively good brand Name at least in America but the big problem it needs to solve is to produce with big project to run behind Model 3. It seems to me very difficult what goes to do Tesla!
DeleteThere is a simple explanation to why Tesla is not having much orders - people don`t want to wait two years for delivery. It will change soon
DeleteMaybe, but the same sort of guess was made by a lot of people in 2011 when Tesla published that they had 20.000 pre-orders for the Model S and they will need to produce 20.000 a year to match the future world demand. These persons argued that once these pre-orders will dry out, Tesla will only manage to have, at the most, 10.000 orders per year of the car in the world, and only 3.000 of them each year in US from the "few US geeks and tree hungers that will be insane enough to buy a car with a technology with no future and a car that will disappear in five".
DeleteRemember also the case of the Model X that lost more than 30% of its pre-orders in the US because of the first 6 months of big problems with reliability with falcon doors and then made a big come back.
And for the last but not the least, the AWD and performance versions will bring a lot of new orders until the 35k land in 2019Q1.
Marsusul, It is silly to have thought Tesla would only sell 10,000 Model S a year world wide. There are a lot of people out there with money to burn. With that said They sell about 50,000 world wide and about half of that in the US. Same with the Model X (a lot of these are sold at a huge discount to move them out of inventory). The model 3 might do better than I thought and sell 50,000 or so in the US and 50,000 or so worldwide. The problem with the performance model 3 is that you start eating into Model S orders and vice versa.
DeleteI'm not so pessimistic on the Model 3, but then again, i assume that the SR, #35,000 will effectively land in Q1 2019.
ReplyDeleteIf it doesn't, then we are talking of a different ball game, as Tesla will remain in the "Rich people toy" category, and won't be able to beat Mercedes and BMW in sales.
I even think that if they stay at the current price levels forever, lots of Tesla fans will be pissed and the Tesla "halo" damaged.
Let's hope not.
They reiterated their commitment of bringing the 35k model 3 in the shareholder meeting of last Tuesday and after one of the person in audience ask about a possible future compact Tesla car, Elon Musk answered to him that a compact car will come in less of five years. So even if it will not be in same price of a Clio, and think this compact Tesla will compete with Golf and other compact cars in the same range of price.
DeleteBut, I now, it's also Elon time-line...:)